Predicting the initial spread of novel Asian origin influenza A viruses in the continental USA by wild waterfowl

Alan B. Franklin; Sarah N. Bevins; Jeremy W. Ellis; Ryan S. Miller; Susan A. Shriner; J. Jeffrey Root; Daniel P. Walsh; Thomas J. DeLiberto

doi:10.1111/tbed.13070

USGS · 70202020

Predicting the initial spread of novel Asian origin influenza A viruses in the continental USA by wild waterfowl

Alan B. Franklin·Sarah N. Bevins·Jeremy W. Ellis·Ryan S. Miller·Susan A. Shriner·J. Jeffrey Root·Daniel P. Walsh·Thomas J. DeLiberto

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Using data on waterfowl band recoveries, we identified spatially explicit hotspots of concentrated waterfowl movement to predict occurrence and spatial spread of a novel influenza A virus (clade 2.3.4.4) introduced from Asia by waterfowl from an initial outbreak in North America in November 2014. In response to the outbreak, the hotspots of waterfowl movement were used to help guide sampling for clade 2.3.4.4 viruses in waterfowl as an early warning for the US poultry industry during the outbreak . After surveillance sampling of waterfowl, we tested whether there was greater detection of clade 2.3.4.4 viruses inside hotspots. We found that hotspots defined using kernel density estimates of waterfowl band recoveries worked well in predicting areas with higher prevalence of the viruses in waterfowl. This approach exemplifies the value of ecological knowledge in predicting risk to agricultural security.

Explore related subjects

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Article

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Alan B. Franklin, Sarah N. Bevins, Jeremy W. Ellis, Ryan S. Miller, Susan A. Shriner, J. Jeffrey Root, Daniel P. Walsh, Thomas J. DeLiberto. 2018-12-26. Predicting the initial spread of novel Asian origin influenza A viruses in the continental USA by wild waterfowl. https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13070

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2025

Rapid risk assessment framework to estimate potential for spillback at human-wildlife interfaces

More than 60% of emerging infectious diseases of humans have a wildlife origin, and when these diseases spread through human populations to new geographical areas, there is a considerable risk of spillback from humans to wildlife species. Spillback events can have severe consequences for wildlife populations, where the disease may cause morbidity and mortality, and human populations, where the establishment in wildlife may lead to prolonged transmission or new exposures in humans. Mitigating these consequences requires identifying the key risk factors that lead to human–wildlife transmission events and implementing risk-reducing actions, a challenge given that cross-species transmission events are rare and often data deficient. To identify potential species and locations that are most likely to lead to these rare events, we developed a spatially explicit, rapid risk assessment framework that incorporates three components of the spillback process: wildlife susceptibility, wildlife exposure, and pathogen introduction pressure. To demonstrate the broad applicability of our framework, we conducted a rapid risk assessment on two recent emerging zoonotic pathogens in humans, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and mpox, to determine the relative spillback risk to wild mammalian species in the continental United States. The rapid risk assessment identified both species and locations with higher than expected spillback risk, providing managers and researchers with valuable information to prioritize surveillance and risk-mitigation actions. Our framework represents a rapid and flexible approach to assess the risks of spillback to wildlife populations during rapidly evolving zoonotic disease outbreaks.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases↗

USGS2025

Fomites could determine severity of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low-density white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations

The establishment of a reservoir species for zoonotic diseases is concerning for both animal and human health. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2, the coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, has been detected in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in the United States. Since its initial detection, various studies have documented circulation and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in deer, with human cases suspected of spill-back from infectious deer. A priority for mitigating SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in deer populations is determining the contribution of direct (via aerosols and physical contact) and indirect (via contaminated objects and media) transmission pathways. We expanded existing epidemiological models founded on direct transmission pathways to include three indirect transmission pathways of infection for simulated deer populations, including contaminated water, food waste, and feed piles. Despite lower infection probabilities and transmission hazards (measured by force-of-infection (FOI)) posed solely by these indirect pathways compared to direct transmission pathways, the addition of indirect transmission pathways increased FOI, which had ramifications for the severity of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in simulated deer populations, particularly in populations with low degrees of spread between deer (measured by basic reproductive number; R 0 ). We used contact rate models to estimate SARS-CoV-2 spread across deer range in the United States and identified widespread potential for indirect transmission to increase the severity of outbreaks in low-density deer populations. These results indicate that indirect transmission pathways need to be considered in the management of white-tailed deer as a reservoir species for SARS-CoV-2.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases↗

USGS2024

Detection of tick-borne pathogen coinfections and coexposures to foot-and-mouth disease, brucellosis, and Q fever in selected wildlife from Kruger National Park, South Africa, and Etosha National Park, Namibia

Background: Although the rate of emerging infectious diseases that originate in wildlife has been increasing globally in recent decades, there is currently a lack of epidemiological data from wild animals. Methodology: We used serology to determine prior exposure to foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), Brucella spp., and Coxiella burnetii and used genetic testing to detect blood-borne parasitic infections in the genera Ehrlichia , Anaplasma , Theileria , and Babesia from wildlife in two national parks, Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, and Etosha National Park (ENP), Namibia. Serum and whole blood samples were obtained from free-roaming plains zebra ( Equus quagga ), greater kudu ( Tragelaphus strepsiceros ), impala ( Aepyceros melampus ), and blue wildebeest ( Connochaetes taurinus ). Risk factors (host species, sex, and sampling park) for infection with each pathogen were assessed, as well as the prevalence and distribution of co-occurring infections. Results: In KNP 13/29 (45%; confidence interval [CI]: 26%–64%) kudus tested positive for FMD, but none of these reacted to SAT serotypes. For brucellosis, seropositive results were obtained for 3/29 (10%; CI: 2%–27%) kudu samples. Antibodies against C. burnetii were detected in 6/29 (21%; CI: 8%–40%) kudus, 14/21 (67%; CI: 43%–85%) impalas, and 18/39 (46%; CI: 30%–63%) zebras. A total of 28/28 kudus tested positive for Theileria spp. (100%; CI: 88%–100%) and 27/28 for Anaplasma/Ehrlichia spp. (96%; CI: 82%–100%), whereas 12/19 impalas (63%) and 2/39 zebra (5%) tested positive for Anaplasma centrale . In ENP, only 1/29 (3%; CI: 0%–18%) wildebeest samples tested positive for FMD. None of the samples tested positive for brucellosis, while C. burnetii antibodies were detected in 26/30 wildebeests (87%; CI: 69%–96%), 16/40 kudus (40%; CI: 25%–57%), and 26/26 plains zebras (100%; CI: 87%–100%). A total of 60% Anaplasma/Ehrlichia spp. and 35% Theileria/Babesia spp. in kudu and 37% wildebeest tested positive to Theileria sp. (sable), 30% to Babesia occultans , and 3%–7% to Anaplasma spp. The seroprevalence of Q fever was significantly higher in ENP, while Brucella spp., Anaplasma , Ehrlichia , Theileria , and Babesia species were significantly higher in KNP. Significant coinfections were also identified. Conclusion: This work provided baseline serological and molecular data on 40+ pathogens in four wildlife species from two national parks in southern Africa.

Etosha National Park, Kruger National Park↗