Updated California aftershock parameters

Abstract

Reasenberg and Jones (1989) introduced a statistical model for aftershock rate following a mainshock along with estimates of “generic” California parameter values based on past aftershock sequences. The Reasenberg and Jones (1989) model has been used for decades to issue aftershock forecasts following M ≥ 5 "> M ≥ 5 mainshocks in California. Here, we update the “generic” parameters for California through a fit to the aftershock sequences of M ≥ 5 "> M ≥ 5 mainshocks occurring since 1980. We find aftershock productivity values that are lower on average than the generic productivity reported by Reasenberg and Jones (1989) , likely because low‐productivity sequences were omitted from their analysis and possibly because of a trade‐off between productivity and b "> b ‐value. We confirm the observation of Llenos and Michael (2017) that southern California sequences are more productive on average than northern California sequences. The Mendocino area is much less productive; the hydrothermal areas in Long Valley, Coso, and the Salton Sea, in contrast, are much more productive. We also quantify the variability of the Reasenberg and Jones (1989) productivity parameter a "> a a between sequences with a normal distribution. This distribution of a "> a ‐values can be used to compute aftershock forecasts that include epistemic uncertainty and can be used as the prior for Bayesian updating of the a "> a a ‐value as a sequence progresses.