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Identifying species conservation strategies to reduce disease-associated declines

Brian D. Gerber·Sarah J. Converse·Erin L. Muths·Harry J. Crockett·Brittany A. Mosher·Larissa L. Bailey
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Abstract

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a salient threat to many animal taxa, causing local and global extinctions, altering communities and ecosystem function. The EID chytridiomycosis is a prominent driver of amphibian declines, which is caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). To guide conservation policy, we developed a predictive decision-analytic model that combines empirical knowledge of host-pathogen metapopulation dynamics with expert judgment regarding effects of management actions, to select from potential conservation strategies. We apply our approach to a boreal toad ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) and Bd system, identifying optimal strategies that balance tradeoffs in maximizing toad population persistence and landscape-level distribution, while considering costs. The most robust strategy is expected to reduce the decline of toad breeding sites from 53% to 21% over 50 years. Our findings are incorporated into management policy to guide conservation planning. Our online modeling application provides a template for managers of other systems challenged by EIDs.

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Brian D. Gerber, Sarah J. Converse, Erin L. Muths, Harry J. Crockett, Brittany A. Mosher, Larissa L. Bailey. 2017-07-31. Identifying species conservation strategies to reduce disease-associated declines. https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12393

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