Ecological risk assessment of Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) for the Great Lakes Basin

Abstract

Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) is an herbivorous, freshwater fish that was first introduced in the United States in the early 1960s for use in biological control of aquatic vegetation. It has since escaped and dispersed through the Mississippi River basin towards the Great Lakes. To characterize the risk of Grass Carp to the Great Lakes basin, a binational ecological risk assessment of Grass Carp was conducted. This risk assessment covered both triploid (sterile) and diploid (fertile) Grass Carp and assessed the likelihood of arrival, survival, establishment, and spread, and the magnitude of the ecological consequences within 5, 10, 20 and 50 years from 2014 (i.e., the baseline year) to the connected Great Lakes basin (defined as the Great Lakes basin and its tributaries to the first impassable barrier; risk was assessed based on current climate conditions and at the individual lake scale but does not address a finer geographical scale (e.g., bay or sub-region). For triploid Grass Carp, the probability of occurrence (likelihood of arrival, survival, and spread) was assessed, and for diploid Grass Carp the probability of introduction (likelihood of arrival, survival, establishment and spread) was assessed.