Testing for synchrony in recruitment among four Lake Michigan fish species

Abstract

In the Great Lakes region, multiple fish species display intra-specific spatial synchrony in 28 recruitment success, with inter-annual climate variation hypothesized as the most likely driver. 29 In Lake Michigan, we evaluated whether climatic or other physical variables could also induce 30 spatial synchrony across multiple species, including bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), rainbow smelt 31 ( Osmerus mordax ), yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ), and alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ). The 32 residuals from stock-recruitment relationships revealed yellow perch recruitment to be correlated 33 with recruitment of both rainbow smelt (r = 0.37) and alewife (r = 0.36). Across all four species, 34 higher than expected recruitment occurred in 5 years between 1978 and 1987 and then switched 35 to lower than expected recruitment in 5 years between 1996 and 2004. Generalized additive 36 models revealed warmer spring and summer water temperatures and lower wind speeds 37 corresponded to higher than expected recruitment for the nearshore-spawning species, and 38 overall variance explained ranged from 14% (yellow perch) to 61% (alewife). For all species 39 but rainbow smelt, higher recruitment also occurred in extremely high or low years of the North 40 Atlantic Oscillation index. Future development of indices that describe the physical Great Lakes 41 environment could improve understanding of how climate can synchronize fish populations 42 within and across species.