Predictive models in hazard assessment of Great Lakes contaminants for fish

Dora R. May Passino

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USGS · 70171186

Predictive models in hazard assessment of Great Lakes contaminants for fish

Dora R. May Passino

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Abstract

A hazard assessment scheme was developed and applied to predict potential harm to aquatic biota of nearly 500 organic compounds detected by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) in Great Lakes fish. The frequency of occurrence and estimated concentrations of compounds found in lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) and walleyes ( Stizostedion vitreum vitreum ) were compared with available manufacturing and discharge information. Bioconcentration potential of the compounds was estimated from available data or from calculations of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR). Investigators at the National Fisheries Research Center-Great Lakes also measured the acute toxicity (48-h EC50's) of 35 representative compounds to Daphnia pulex and compared the results with acute toxicity values generated by QSAR. The QSAR-derived toxicities for several chemicals underestimated the actual acute toxicity by one or more orders of magnitude. A multiple regression of log EC50 on log water solubility and molecular volume proved to be a useful predictive model. Additional models providing insight into toxicity incorporate solvatochromic parameters that measure dipolarity/polarizability, hydrogen bond acceptor basicity, and hydrogen bond donor acidity of the solute (toxicant).

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Dora R. May Passino. 1986. Predictive models in hazard assessment of Great Lakes contaminants for fish. https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70171186

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