Prediction monitoring and evaluation program; a progress report

Abstract

Can your friend's relative really predict earthquakes? Or how about that fellow in the mountains who has always liked geology, does he have the answer to the "when" of earthquakes? And if these people do actually predict an earthquake, is it a lucky guess or are they tuned in to something? A lucky guess would be interesting; 1 correct guess in 100 tries is hardly prediction. But 90 out of 100-now that's prediction! As part of an attempt to separate useful predictions from inaccurate guesses, we have kept score on earthquake predictions from all sources brought to our attention over the past year and a half. The program was outlined in "Earthquake Prediction;Fact and Fallacy" by Roger N. Hunter (Earthquake Information Bulletin, vol. 8, no. 5, September-October 1976, p. 24-25). The program attracted a great deal of public attention, and, as a result, our files now contain over 2500 predictions from more than 230 different people.