Tree mortality in mature riparian forest: Implications for Fremont cottonwood conservation in the American southwest

Abstract

Mature tree mortality rates are poorly documented in desert riparian woodlands. I monitored deaths and calculated annual survivorship probability (P s ) in 2 groups of large (27–114 cm DBH), old (≥40 years old) Fremont cottonwood ( Populus fremontii Wats.) in a stand along the free-flowing Yampa River in semiarid northwestern Colorado. P s = 0.993 year-1 in a group ( n = 126) monitored over 2003–2013, whereas P s = 0.985 year -1 in a group ( n = 179) monitored over the same period plus 3 earlier years (2000–2003) that included drought and a defoliating insect outbreak. Assuming P s was the same for both groups during the 10-year postdrought period, the data indicate that P s = 0.958 year -1 during the drought. I found no difference in canopy dieback level between male and female survivors. Mortality was equal among size classes, suggesting P s is independent of age, but published longevity data imply that either P s eventually declines with age or, as suggested in this study, periods with high P s are interrupted by episodes of increased mortality. Stochastic population models featuring episodes of low P s suggest a potential for an abrupt decline in mature tree numbers where recruitment is low. The modeling results have implications for woodland conservation, especially for relictual stands along regulated desert rivers.