Re-evaluating the northeastern Minnesota moose decline and the role of wolves

L. David Mech; John Fieberg

doi:10.1002/jwmg.775

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Re-evaluating the northeastern Minnesota moose decline and the role of wolves

L. David Mech·John Fieberg

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Abstract

We re-evaluated findings from Lenarz et al. (2009) that adult moose ( Alces alces ) survival in northeastern Minnesota was related to high January temperatures and that predation by wolves ( Canis lupus ) played a minor role. We found significant inverse relationships between annual wolf numbers in part of the moose range and various moose demographics from 2003 to 2013 that suggested a stronger role of wolves than heretofore believed. To re-evaluate the temperature findings, we conducted a simulation study, mimicking the approach taken by Lenarz et al. (2009), to explore the potential for concluding a significant relationship exists between temperature and survival, when no association exists. We found that the high R 2 s and low probabilities associated with the regression models in Lenarz et al. (2009) should be viewed cautiously in light of the large number of fitted models (m = 45) and few observations (n = 6 for each of 5 response variables).

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Journal of Wildlife Management Article

Source-reported bounding extent: 46.6557° to 48.4968° latitude; -92.7018° to -89.4918° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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L. David Mech, John Fieberg. 2014-08-26. Re-evaluating the northeastern Minnesota moose decline and the role of wolves. https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.775

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