USGS Science⌕ Search
Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70037767

Statistical models of temperature in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under climate-change scenarios and ecological implications

R. Wayne Wagner·Mark T. Stacey·Larry R. Brown·Mike Dettinger
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Also available from

Abstract

Changes in water temperatures caused by climate change in California's Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta will affect the ecosystem through physiological rates of fishes and invertebrates. This study presents statistical models that can be used to forecast water temperature within the Delta as a response to atmospheric conditions. The daily average model performed well ( R 2 values greater than 0.93 during verification periods) for all stations within the Delta and San Francisco Bay provided there was at least 1 year of calibration data. To provide long-term projections of Delta water temperature, we forced the model with downscaled data from climate scenarios. Based on these projections, the ecological implications for the delta smelt, a key species, were assessed based on temperature thresholds. The model forecasts increases in the number of days above temperatures causing high mortality (especially along the Sacramento River) and a shift in thermal conditions for spawning to earlier in the year.

Explore related subjects

Estuaries and CoastsArticle

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

R. Wayne Wagner, Mark T. Stacey, Larry R. Brown, Mike Dettinger. 2011-02-01. Statistical models of temperature in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under climate-change scenarios and ecological implications. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-010-9369-z

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2026

Assessing the status and drivers of phytoplankton blooms along the riverine to freshwater-tidal continuum in a modified delta

Shifts in phytoplankton communities, from beneficial taxa that fuel food webs to harmful taxa that degrade water quality, are often linked to anthropogenic modifications to estuaries. We analyzed monitoring data from 2000 to 2023 in the heavily modified southern, landward portion of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (California, USA) to determine the status and drivers of phytoplankton abundance and community composition along the riverine to freshwater tidal transition. Diatoms and green algae dominated the phytoplankton community, especially when chlorophyll a (chl- a ) concentrations exceeded 16 µg L − 1 . Common riverine diatoms (e.g., Cyclotella and Aulacoseira ) dominated upstream riverine stations, while taxa associated with tidally influenced conditions (e.g., colonial cyanobacteria, cryptophytes) were more prevalent in western, freshwater tidal stations. The potentially toxigenic cyanobacterium, Microcystis , was present each summer, but was not associated with elevated chl- a or cyanotoxins (microcystins were detected in 12% of samples with a maximum concentration of 3.9 µg L − 1 ). A Bayesian ordinal regression showed that mean prior week water speeds below 0.18 m s − 1 and water temperatures above 22 ˚C were associated with the presence of Microcystis. Random forest modeling to assess factors associated with phytoplankton blooms (chl- a > 16 µg L − 1 ) found that mean prior week turbidity, inflows from the San Joaquin River, region, and mean prior week water temperature were important drivers of blooms. These modeling results emphasize the importance of hydrodynamics in controlling phytoplankton dynamics in lowland rivers and tidal deltas, offering insights for how anthropogenic impacts on flow regimes may affect the base of estuarine food webs.

California↗
USGS2026

Co-producing coastal bird research on the Gulf Coast through structured decision making (SDM) and constructed value of information (CVoI)

Conservation practitioners face the complex challenge of addressing global biodiversity threats within social-ecological systems with multiple jurisdictions, numerous interest groups, and changing environmental conditions. Bridging the research-to-implementation gap between scientists and managers, which integrates diverse perspectives that represent the variety of considerations impacting management outcomes can help to inform efficient and effective conservation. Avian conservation programs along the U.S. Gulf Coast exemplify these challenges, as management decisions must address diverse threats to declining coastal bird populations across large breeding, wintering, and migratory ranges while facing uncertainty surrounding the efficacy of large-scale strategies. This provides opportunities for improving management through co-produced research with structured decision making (SDM). We present a case study that demonstrates the application of co-production principles and SDM to collaboratively develop high-priority research questions informing effective avian conservation and management. Additionally, we applied a constructed value of information (CVoI) framework to identify and prioritize which uncertainties to reduce and better understand how research questions impact management actions. The integration of SDM’s five-step decision making framework ensured key principles of co-production were met, while co-production enhanced SDM outcomes by incorporating diverse perspectives and knowledge bases. CVoI further allowed participants to collectively determine final high-priority research questions in the face of complexity and uncertainty. Together, these approaches supported co-produced knowledge-generation, strategic hypothesis prioritization, and identification of research questions most likely to improve conservation decisions. This case study from the U.S. Gulf Coast demonstrates how co-produced research through SDM offers a broadly applicable approach for navigating ecological complexity and bridging the research-to-implementation gap in avian conservation.

Gulf Coast↗
USGS2025

Assessing environmental drivers and protist community dynamics that shaped the historic August 2022 Heterosigma akashiwo bloom in San Francisco Bay, California

San Francisco Bay, California, typically has chlorophyll a (chl- a ) concentrations below 10 µg L −1 , despite nutrient loadings exceeding those in many estuaries with recurring harmful algal blooms (HABs). However, in August 2022 there was a Heterosigma akashiwo (raphidophyte) bloom with chl- a concentrations exceeding 450 µg L −1 , resulting in widespread hypoxia and fish die-off. We used protist community (18S ribosomal ribonucleic acid gene metabarcoding) and environmental data collected 2–3 times per month from 2015–2023 to assess differences between 2022 and other years, and capture dynamics pre-, during, and post-bloom. The 2022 protist community clustered separately from other years in non-metric multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analyses. A diatom bloom in June generated the highest median June chl- a concentration (15 µg L −1 ) recorded between 1977–2023 and drew down nutrients (nitrogen, silicate), leading to the establishment of a heterotrophic community in July with low dinoflagellate abundance (0.9% of protists versus 5.9% average in other years). The absence of dinoflagellates, potentially including H. akashiwo predators , plus suitable habitat (13–14 daylight hours, temperatures 17–21˚C, nitrate concentrations 17–24 µmol L −1 , neap tides) likely provided opportunity for H. akashiwo to proliferate from 0.03% to 48% of protists between July 20 and August 25. As the bloom collapsed, the genus Gyrodinium (dinoflagellate predator of H. akashiwo ) increased from 3.0% to 52% of protists between August 25 and August 31, likely exerting grazing pressure. Results show that antecedent protist community dynamics play important roles in shaping HABs, and interactions between biotic and abiotic factors govern the development of blooms.

California↗