Origin of the 17 July 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami: Earthquake or landslide

Abstract

The tsunami that struck Papua New Guinea on 17 July 1998 shortly after a M w 7.0 earthquake ( Figure 1 ) was one of the deadliest tsunamis in this century. At least 2,200 people died from this event, essentially destroying an entire generation in some communities. In the months following the tsunami, several international survey teams collected data in an attempt to better understand the cause of this event. Elevations of waterline marks and displaced debris measured by the first International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST; Kawata et al., 1999 ) indicated an average runup of 10 m occurring over a 25 km length of coastline in the vicinity of Sissano Lagoon ( Figure 2 ). The maximum runup from this event was approximately 15 m. Tsunami runup heights of this size are commonly associated either with earthquakes of much larger magnitude or with “tsunami earthquakes” as defined by Kanamori ( 1972 ) and later discussed by Kanamori and Kikuchi ( 1993 ). Even for tsunami earthquakes, however, runup heights of 10-15 m seem only to occur for earthquakes M w > 7.5. Because these runup heights appear anomalously high for a M 7 earthquake, other sources have been postulated for the tsunami, including a submarine landslide or mass flow. Earlier this year, the bathymetry north of Papua New Guinea was surveyed by the Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC) and the South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC). In a report describing the preliminary results from these cruises ( Tappin et al. , 1999 ), bathymetric images are presented that show evidence both of a 40-km-long fault scarp and of collapse features within an approximately 10-km-wide bathymetric amphitheater ( Figure 2 ). The report suggests that a landslide was the sole cause for the tsunami. In this paper, I revisit the common assumption that local tsunami runup scales directly with moment magnitude and demonstrate that the tsunami generated by the earthquake cannot be disregarded to explain the runup observations.