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Analysis of the seismic origin of landslides: Examples from the New Madrid seismic zone

R.W. Jibson·D. K. Keefer
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Abstract

By analyzing two landslides in the New Madrid seismic zone, we develop an approach for judging if a landslide or group of landslides of unknown origin was more likely to have formed as a result of earthquake shaking or in aseismic conditions. The two landslides analyzed are representative of two groups of land-slides that previous research on the geomorphology and regional distribution of landslides in this region indicates may have been triggered by the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes. Slope-stability models of aseismic conditions show that neither landslide is likely to have formed aseismically even in unrealistically high ground-water conditions. Dynamic stability analysis using Newmark's method shows that both slides probably would have experienced large inertial displacements during earthquake shaking similar to that which occurred in 1811-1812; these displacements are large enough that catastrophic failure is highly probable. Thus, the stability analyses are consistent with other lines of evidence that these landslides formed as a result of strong earthquake shaking during the 1811-1812 earthquakes. Our analysis yields a general relationship between Newmark landslide displacement, earthquake shaking intensity, and the critical acceleration of a landslide. Using this relationship, we estimate the minimum shaking intensities required to trigger the types of landslides studied: an m b = 5.8 or M = 5.9 earthquake is the lower bound threshold at zero epicentral distance that could trigger catastrophic movement of typical block slides in the New Madrid seismic zone; for earth flows, m b = 5.4 or M = 5.3 is the threshold earthquake.

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R.W. Jibson, D. K. Keefer. 1993. Analysis of the seismic origin of landslides: Examples from the New Madrid seismic zone. https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1993)105%3C0521%3Aaotsoo%3E2.3.co%3B2

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