Radiocarbon test of earthquake magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone

B.F. Atwater; M. Stuiver; D.K. Yamaguchi

doi:10.1038/353156a0

Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70016500

Radiocarbon test of earthquake magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone

B.F. Atwater·M. Stuiver·D.K. Yamaguchi

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The Cascadia subduction zone, which extends along the northern Pacific coast of North America, might produce earthquakes of magnitude 8 or 9 ('great' earthquakes) even though it has not done so during the past 200 years of European observation 1–7 . Much of the evidence for past Cascadia earthquakes comes from former meadows and forests that became tidal mudflats owing to abrupt tectonic subsidence in the past 5,000 years 2,3,6,7 . If due to a great earthquake, such subsidence should have extended along more than 100 km of the coast 2 . Here we investigate the extent of coastal subsidence that might have been caused by a single earthquake, through high-precision radiocarbon dating of coastal trees that abruptly subsided into the intertidal zone. The ages leave the great-earthquake hypothesis intact by limiting to a few decades the discordance, if any, in the most recent subsidence of two areas 55 km apart along the Washington coast. This subsidence probably occurred about 300 years ago.

Explore related subjects

Nature Article

Source-reported bounding extent: 40.81795657605656° to 51.014481796116° latitude; -128.92429719095549° to -121.81543663397728° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

B.F. Atwater, M. Stuiver, D.K. Yamaguchi. 1991. Radiocarbon test of earthquake magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone. https://doi.org/10.1038/353156a0

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2026

Rising atmospheric CO2 reduces nitrogen availability in boreal forests

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) pollution has been emphasized as a cause of eutrophication globally. However, several recent datasets have suggested widespread oligotrophication may be occurring in some ecosystems, which is suggested to be a response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO 2 ). Plant δ 15 N chronologies have served as primary evidence for oligotrophication, however, there has been wide disagreement whether eCO 2 or temporal changes in N deposition explain these patterns. We constructed δ 15 N tree ring chronologies across Sweden’s 23.5 million hectare productive forest area from the 1950s to 2010s. The study area spans a 1500 km latitudinal distance where N deposition varies four-fold, but where eCO 2 is spatially uniform. Our data revealed negative δ 15 N chronologies throughout Sweden, including forests in the far north where atmospheric N deposition rates are very low. Linear mixed effects models showed that eCO 2 was by far the strongest predictor of δ 15 N values, whereas N deposition variables, temperature, and forest basal area had much lower explanatory power. Our results clarify debates on the interpretation of previous δ 15 N chronologies, and provide clear evidence that eCO 2 is causing oligotrophication in boreal forests, which has implications for predicting their future role as sinks in the global carbon cycle.

Nature↗

USGS2025

Diverging fish biodiversity trends in cold and warm rivers and streams

Worldwide, freshwater systems contain more than 18,000 fish species 1,2,3 , which are critical to the functioning of these ecosystems 4 and are vital cultural and economic resources to humans 5,6,7 ; despite this value, fish biodiversity is at risk globally 8,9 . In the USA, leading threats to fish communities in rivers and streams include climate change and invasive fish introductions and game fish stocking by humans 10,11,12,13,14 . Here we harmonized US federal biomonitoring datasets with 389 species spanning 27 years (1993–2019) and 2,992 sites to analyse trends in fish biodiversity. In cold streams (past summer stream temperatures below 15.4 °C), fish abundance and richness declined by 53.4% and 32% over 27 years, respectively, and uniqueness increased. Periodic (large-bodied, late-maturing) fishes increased, and opportunists (small-bodied, short generation time, ‘r-selected’) decreased, possibly due to proliferation of native or introduced game fishes. In warm streams (stream temperatures greater than 23.8 °C), fish abundance and richness increased by 70.5% and 15.6% over 27 years, respectively, and communities homogenized. Small opportunistic fishes replaced large periodic fishes. Intermediate streams (stream temperatures 15.4–23.8 °C), representing the average stream, had minimal changes in fish biodiversity through time. Interactions between warming and introduced fish were associated with increased rates of degradation to local fish biodiversity. Given the magnitude of these changes in a relatively short time span, there is an urgent need to curb degradation of fish biodiversity caused by fish introductions and warming water temperatures.

continental United States↗

USGS2025

Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts

Coral reefs form complex physical structures that can help to mitigate coastal flooding risk 1,2 . This function will be reduced by sea-level rise (SLR) and impaired reef growth caused by climate change and local anthropogenic stressors 3 . Water depths above reef surfaces are projected to increase as a result, but the magnitudes and timescales of this increase are poorly constrained, which limits modelling of coastal vulnerability 4,5 . Here we analyse fossil reef deposits to constrain links between reef ecology and growth potential across more than 400 tropical western Atlantic sites, and assess the magnitudes of resultant above-reef increases in water depth through to 2100 under various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) emission scenarios. Our analysis predicts that more than 70% of tropical western Atlantic reefs will transition into net erosional states by 2040, but that if warming exceeds 2 °C (SSP2–4.5 and higher), nearly all reefs (at least 99%) will be eroding by 2100. The divergent trajectories of reef growth and SLR will thus magnify the effects of SLR; increases in water depth of around 0.3–0.5 m above the present are projected under all warming scenarios by 2060, but depth increases of 0.7–1.2 m are predicted by 2100 under scenarios in which warming surpasses 2 °C. This would increase the risk of flooding along vulnerable reef-fronted coasts and modify nearshore hydrodynamics and ecosystems. Reef restoration offers one pathway back to higher reef growth 6,7 , but would dampen the effects of SLR in 2100 only by around 0.3–0.4 m, and only when combined with aggressive climate mitigation.

Florida↗