USGS · 5223887
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D. H. Ellis, Pu Tsengeg, P. Whitlock, Merlin H. Ellis. 2008-06-28. Predators as prey at a Golden Eagle Aquila chrysaetos eyrie in Mongolia. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1474-919x.2000.tb07694.x
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Reproductive success is a key demographic parameter that can have profound impacts on a species' population trend. Indeed, poor reproductive success has been suggested as a contributing factor to the declines observed in many species of birds, including Arctic-breeding shorebirds. However, the available information on Arctic-breeding shorebird nest survival is restricted to a limited number of non-random locations where proximity to human settlements and traditional invasive monitoring techniques may artificially alter nest predation rates and, thus, bias results. To accurately assess reproductive success, unbiased estimates are needed. In this study, we monitored 96 shorebird nests (six species) at 41 randomly selected sites across a large Arctic landscape (1219 km 2 area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge) using minimally invasive techniques (i.e. single nest visits, temperature loggers and cameras) in 2019 and 2022. Overall, daily survival was 0.975 (95% CI: 0.955–0.987), which translates to a 53% (95% CI: 32–72%) probability of a shorebird nest surviving the median (25 days) incubation period for the studied species. Camera footage indicated Arctic Foxes Vulpes lagopus were the primary nest predator (85% of identified predation events), but Parasitic Jaegers Stercorarius parasiticus and Sandhill Cranes Grus canadensis also contributed to nest loss. In both years, greater nest failure occurred in the northwest and northcentral regions of our study area, potentially the result of greater shorebird abundance and density-dependent predation rates. Nest survival rates obtained in this study were the same as those obtained in a previous large geographical study that monitored shorebird nests across numerous small, non-randomly selected, high-density shorebird field sites that employed intensive human monitoring techniques. However, site-specific and annual differences in predator and shorebird species and densities make direct comparisons to previous studies difficult. Continued monitoring using methods that minimize bias and are consistent across time are needed to accurately measure true changes in nest survival rates that may occur under a changing climate and with increased human development.
Species distributions are often indicative of historical biogeographical events and contemporary spatial biodiversity patterns. The Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus is a sea duck of conservation concern that has a disjunct distribution, with discrete portions of its range associated with northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins. Movement data indicate migratory connectivity within regions of each ocean basin but not cross-continent dispersal, suggesting that genetic structuring could exist at multiple spatial scales. Little is known regarding the impacts of past vicariance events on the species phylogeographical structure and historical demography, or rates of gene flow at different spatial scales. We used data from microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences to quantify levels of genetic diversity within, and the extent of spatial genetic differentiation among locations sampled at multiple spatial scales across the species range. Samples were collected at nonbreeding locations, which represent groupings appropriate for characterizing genetically differentiated subgroups at regional and continental scales. Collectively, genetic data and coalescence modelling suggested that individuals colonized regions currently occupied within both ocean basins in the Holocene from a single refuge in the Atlantic. Further, it seems likely there was secondary contact with lineages derived from populations in Asia, based on the shallow species-wide mtDNA phylogeny and high incidence of recently derived private mtDNA haplotypes. Estimates of inter-location variance in microsatellite allele and mtDNA haplotype frequency were moderate and significant between western (Pacific – North America) and eastern (Atlantic – North America, Greenland and Iceland) ocean basins and among sampling groups within each ocean basin. Genetic differentiation among sampling groups was particularly evident at the species distributional margins in the Atlantic (Iceland) and the Pacific (Shemya Island) Ocean basins. Coalescent modelling results suggest that contemporary spatial genetic patterns in the species arose through the combined influences of secondary contact, shared ancestry and gene flow after the last glacial maxima.
Survival estimates are critical components of avian ecology. In well-intentioned efforts to maximize the utility of one's research, survival estimates often derive from data that were not originally collected for survival assessments, and such post hoc analyses may include unintentional biases. We estimated the survival of Whimbrels captured and marked at two breeding sites in Alaska using divergent data streams that in isolation were subject to methodological biases. Although both capture sites were chosen to study the migration ecology of Alaska-breeding Whimbrels, maximizing the conservation value of the data we collected was obviously desirable. We used multi-year telemetry information to infer survival from one site (Colville River) and mark-resight techniques to estimate survival from a second site (Kanuti River). At the Colville River, we could not feasibly include a control group of birds to assess potential survival effects of externally mounted transmitters, while at Kanuti River we were unable to accurately account for potential emigration events because we used resightings alone. We integrated these datasets in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, an approach that permitted insights across sites that moderated methodological biases within sites. Using telemetry enabled us to detect permanent emigration events from breeding sites in two of ten birds; results that informed estimates for birds without tracking devices. These datasets yielded point estimates of true survival of Whimbrels from Colville River equipped with solar-powered satellite transmitters that were higher (0.83) than true survival estimates of Whimbrels from Kanuti River marked with leg flags alone (0.74) or equipped with surgically implanted satellite transmitters (0.50), but the 95% credible intervals on these estimates overlapped across groups. For species like Whimbrels that are difficult and costly to study, combining information from disparate data streams allowed us to derive novel demographic estimates, an approach with clear application to other similar studies.