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Research about Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Interacting sea-level rise, sea-ice loss, storm flooding, erosion, and permafrost thaw threaten ecosystems, wildlife, and communities on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta

The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta has the largest intertidal wetland in North America, is a globally critical breeding area for waterbirds, and is home to the largest regional indigenous population in the Arctic. Here, coastal tundra ecosystems, wildlife, and indigenous communities are highly vulnerable to sea-ice loss in the Bering Sea, sea-level rise, storm flooding, erosion, and collapsing ground from permafrost thaw caused by climate warming. These drivers interact in non-linear ways to increase flooding, salinization, and sedimentation, and thus, alter ecosystem trajectories and broader landscape evolution. Rapid changes in these factors over decadal time scales are highly likely to cause transformative shifts in coastal ecosystems across roughly 70% of the outer delta this century. We project saline and brackish ecotypes on the active delta floodplain with frequent sedimentation will maintain dynamic equilibrium with sea-level rise and flooding, slightly brackish ecotypes on the inactive floodplain with infrequent flooding and low sedimentation rates will be vulnerable to increased flooding and likely transition to more saline and brackish ecotypes, and fresh lacustrine and lowland ecotypes on the abandoned floodplain with permafrost plateaus will be vulnerable to thermokarst, salinization and flooding that will shift them toward brackish ecosystems. This will greatly affect bird nesting and foraging habitats, with both winners and losers. Already, some Yup'ik communities are facing relocation of their low-lying villages. The societal challenges and consequences of adapting to these changing landscapes are enormous and will require a huge societal effort.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Cryptic ice wedge networks in Holocene peat, Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), covering ~75,000 km 2 of Alaska's discontinuous permafrost zone, has a historic (1902–2023) mean annual air temperature of ~−1°C and was previously thought to lack ice wedge networks. However, our recent investigations near Bethel, Alaska, revealed numerous near-surface ice wedges. Using 20 cm resolution aerial orthoimagery from 2018, we identified ~50 linear km of ice wedge troughs in a 60 km 2 study area. Fieldwork in 2023 and 2024 confirmed ice wedges up to ~1.5 m wide and ~2.5 m in vertical extent, situated on average 0.9 m below the tundra surface ( n = 29). Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) detected additional ice wedges beyond those visible in the remote sensing imagery, suggesting an underestimation of their true abundance. Coring of polygonal centers revealed late-Quaternary deposits, including thick early Holocene peat, late-Pleistocene ice-rich silts (reworked Yedoma), charcoal layers from tundra fires, and the Aniakchak CFE II tephra (~3600 cal yrs BP). Stable water isotopes from Bethel's wedge ice (mean δ 18 O = −15.7 ‰, δ 2 H = −113.1 ‰) indicate a relatively enriched signature compared to other Holocene ice wedges in Alaska, likely due to warmer temperatures and maritime influences. Expanding our mapping across the YKD using high-resolution satellite imagery from 2012 to 2024, we estimate that the Holocene ice wedge zone encompasses ~30% of the YKD tundra region. Our findings demonstrate that ice wedge networks are more widespread across the YKD than previously recognized, emphasizing both the resilience and vulnerability of the region's warm, ice-rich permafrost. These insights are crucial for understanding permafrost responses to climate change and assessing agricultural potential and development in the region.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Observational, virological, and serological data provide insights into an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza among wild birds on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska in 2022

In 2021–22, clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses were introduced by wild birds into North America, leading to geographically widespread disease. In response to HPAI outbreaks throughout late 2021 and early 2022, we recorded observations of sick and dead birds, estimated abundance of carcasses, collected swab and sera samples to detect viruses, and monitored bird nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region of Alaska to document potential effects of disease. Thirty-six reports of sick and dead birds were registered across the region. Nineteen carcasses were opportunistically collected for diagnostic testing, of which 12 were confirmed to be infected with clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI viruses. Carcass abundance estimates from line-distance sampling provided evidence that the most common species of dead birds from the western Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region were Cackling Goose ( Branta hutchinsii minima ), Glaucous Gull ( Larus hyperboreus ), and Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ). Only one paired cloacal and oropharyngeal swab sample from a Northern Pintail ( Anas acuta ) tested positive for clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI virus, out of 464 live-captured duck and goose samples. Of 195 sera samples from waterfowl screened for antibodies reactive to influenza A viruses, antibodies were found in 41–98% of samples collected from Emperor Goose ( Anser canagicus ), Cackling Goose, Black Brant, and Spectacled Eider ( Somateria fischeri ). In addition, 15–98% of the same sera samples were reactive to a clade 2.3.4.4b H5 antigen. Fewer Black Brant and Emperor Goose nests were found on long-term study plots during 2022 than in previous years. Collectively, we found that HPAI viruses affected at least seven species of wild birds inhabiting the region during 2022. The full scope of impacts of HPAI at this location during 2022 is unknown, but our data indicate that acute effects to avian population health on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region were likely modest.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Previous reproductive success and environmental variation influence nest-site fidelity of a subarctic-nesting goose

Nest-site fidelity is a common strategy in birds and is believed to be adaptive due to familiarity with local conditions. Returning to previously successful nest sites (i.e., the win-stay lose-switch strategy) may be beneficial when habitat quality is spatially variable and temporally predictable; however, changes in environmental conditions may constrain dispersal decisions despite previous reproductive success. We used long-term (2000–2017) capture-mark-reencounter data and hierarchical models to examine fine-scale nest-site fidelity of emperor geese ( Anser canagicus ) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in Alaska. Our objectives were to quantify nest-site dispersal distances, determine whether dispersal distance is affected by previous nest fate, spring timing, or major flooding events on the study area, and determine if nest-site fidelity is adaptive in that it leads to higher nest survival. Consistent with the win-stay lose-switch strategy, expected dispersal distance for individuals that failed their nesting attempt in the previous year (207.9 m,14 95% HPDI:150.9–271.4) was greater than expected dispersal distance for individuals who nested successfully in the previous year (125.8 m, 95% HPDI:107.1–145.9). Expected dispersal distance was slightly greater following years of major flooding events for individuals that nested successfully, although this pattern was not observed for individuals who failed their nesting attempt. We did not find evidence that expected dispersal distance was influenced by spring timing. Importantly, dispersal distance was positively related to daily survival probability of emperor goose nests for individuals who failed their previous nesting attempt, suggesting an adaptive benefit to the win-stay lose-switch strategy. Our results highlight the importance of previous experience and environmental variation for informing dispersal decisions of a long-lived goose species. However, it is unclear if dispersal decisions based on previous experience will continue to be adaptive as variability in environmental conditions increases in northern breeding areas.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Status of spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, 2022—Testing and updating predictive models

The nesting biology and demography of spectacled eiders ( Somateria fischeri ) along the lower Kashunuk River on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, were studied from 1993 to 2002. This previous work demonstrated that the breeding population on the study area was declining, and demographic modeling predicted that the population would continue to decline from 2002 forward. The predicted decline was primarily because of lead shot in tundra wetlands in the area, exposure of nesting females to lead, resulting in low adult female survival. The model predicted that lead pellets already in wetlands would slowly settle beyond the foraging depth of eiders, and that, lead exposure rates would decline. The goal of this project was to test this prediction by revisiting the lower Kashunuk River study area in 2022 to (1) update previous datasets regarding demographic parameters and (2) validate (or refute) existing models relative to lead exposure rates and the effects of lead on population dynamics. In the summer of 2022, a total of 37 nests were found in a sub-area of the historical study area. Comparing to past efforts in this same sub-area, more nests were found than predicted but the proportion of nesting female spectacled eiders exposed to lead in 2022 (24.3 percent) was still similar to levels of exposure observed between 1994 and 2002 (28.5 percent). Thus, data from the 2022 survey suggests that the earlier decline in numbers of nesting spectacled eiders has reversed, but there has been little decrease in lead exposure over time.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Nest traits and major flooding events influence nest survival of Emperor Geese while regional environmental variation linked to climate does not

The reproductive ecology of geese that breed in the Arctic and subarctic is likely susceptible to the effects of climate change, which is projected to alter the environmental conditions of northern latitudes. Nest survival is an important component of productivity in geese; however, the effects of regional environmental conditions on nest survival are not well understood for some species, including the Emperor Goose ( Anser canagicus ), a species of conservation concern that is endemic to the Bering Sea region. We estimated nest survival and examined how indices of regional environmental conditions, nest traits (nest age, initiation date, and maximum number of eggs in the nest), and researcher disturbance influenced daily survival probability (DSP) of Emperor Goose nests using hierarchical models and 24 years of nest monitoring data (1994–2017) from the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (Y–K Delta) in western Alaska. Our results indicate that overall nest survival was generally high (µ = 0.766, 95% CRI: 0.655–0.849) and ranged from 0.327 (95% CRI: 0.176–0.482) in 2013 to 0.905 (95% CRI: 0.839–0.953) in 1995. We found that DSPs of nests were influenced by nest traits, negatively influenced by major tidal flooding events and by researcher disturbance, but were not influenced by regional indices of spring timing, temperature and precipitation during nesting, or fox and vole abundance on the Y–K Delta. However, the number of nests found each year was negatively related to our index of fox abundance, suggesting nests that failed as a result of fox predation may have never been discovered due to our limited nest-searching efforts during egg laying. Our results suggest that regional environmental variation had minimal influence on the nest survival of Emperor Geese, although major flooding events were important. Nevertheless, we suspect that within-year variation in local weather conditions and local abundance of predators and alternative prey may be important and should be considered in future studies.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Negligible evidence for detrimental effects of Leucocytozoon infections among Emperor Geese (Anser canagicus) breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Emperor Geese ( Anser canagicus ) are iconic waterfowl endemic to Alaska and adjacent areas of northeastern Russia that are considered to be near threatened by the International Union for Conservation. This species has been identified as harboring diverse viruses and parasites which have, at times, been associated with disease in other avian taxa. To better assess if disease represents a vulnerability for Emperor Geese breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, we evaluated if haemosporidian parasites were associated with decreased mass or survival among adult female nesting birds captured during 2006–2016. Through molecular analyses, we detected genetically diverse Leucocytozoon , Haemoproteus , and Plasmodium parasites in 28%, 1%, and 1% of 607 blood samples screened in triplicate, respectively. Using regression analysis, we found evidence for a small effect of Leucocytozoon infection on the mass of incubating adult female Emperor Geese. The estimated mass of infected individuals was approximately 43 g (95% CI: 20–67 g), or approximately 2%, less than uninfected birds when captured during the second half of incubation (days 11–25). We did not, however, find support for an effect of Leucocytozoon infection on survival of adult female nesting Emperor Geese using a multi-state hidden Markov framework to analyze mark-resight and recapture data. Using parasite mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b sequences, we identified 23 haplotypes among infected Emperor Geese. Leucocytozoon haplotypes clustered into three phylogenetically supported clades designated as ‘ L. simondi clade A’, ‘ L. simondi clade B’, and ‘other Leucocytozoon ’. We did not find evidence that parasites assigned to any of these clades were associated with differential mass measures among nesting adult female Emperor Geese. Collectively, our results provide negligible evidence for Leucocytozoon parasites as causing detrimental effects to adult female Emperor Geese breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Climate- and disturbance-driven changes in subsistence berries in coastal Alaska: Indigenous knowledge to inform ecological inference

Berry-producing plants are a key subsistence resource in Indigenous Alaskan communities. High-latitude coastal regions are particularly impacted by global climate change due to their location at the land-sea ecotone subjecting them to terrestrial stressors as well as shifts in ocean dynamics. While vegetation changes have been documented for the subarctic coastal region of Alaska, we know little about permafrost underlain portions of the landscape that support berry communities. To fill this gap surveys were administered in four communities within the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, to identify observations of changes in berry resources and integrate Indigenous Knowledge of drivers of changes with climate projections. We found that while most participants agreed on several observed changes and drivers, many important differences were identified at the community level. Regional consensus can be used in combination with climate projections to forecast potential future impacts to berry resources while distinctions at the community level can help us to untangle local scale disturbances.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Multi-decadal patterns of vegetation succession after tundra fire on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) is one of the warmest parts of the Arctic tundra biome and tundra fires are common in its upland areas. Here we combine field measurements, Landsat observations, and quantitative cover maps for tundra plant functional types (PFTs) to characterize multi-decadal succession and landscape change after fire in lichen-dominated upland tundra of the YKD, where extensive wildfires occurred in 1971–1972, 1985, 2006–2007, and 2015. Unburned tundra was characterized by abundant lichens and low lichen cover was consistently associated with historical fire. While we observed some successional patterns that were consistent with earlier work in Alaskan tussock tundra, other patterns were not. In the landscape we studied, a large proportion of pre-fire moss cover and surface peat tended to survive fire, which favors survival of existing vascular plants and limits opportunities for seed recruitment. Although shrub cover was much higher in 1985 and 1971–1972 burns than in unburned tundra, tall shrubs (>0.5 m height) were rare and the PFT maps indicate high landscape-scale variability in the degree and persistence of shrub increase after fire. Fire has induced persistent changes in species composition and structure of upland tundra on the YKD, but the lichen-dominated fuels and thick surface peat appear to have limited the potential for severe fire and accompanying edaphic changes. Soil thaw depths were about 10 cm deeper in 2006–2007 burns than in unburned tundra, but were similar to unburned tundra in 1985 and 1971–1972 burns. Historically, repeat fire has been rare on the YKD, and the functional diversity of vegetation has recovered within several decades post-fire. Our findings provide a basis for predicting and monitoring post-fire tundra succession on the YKD and elsewhere.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Vulnerability of subsistence systems due to social and environmental change: A case study in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Arctic Indigenous communities have been classified as highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The remoteness of Arctic communities, their dependence upon local species and habitats, and the historical marginalization of Indigenous peoples, enhances this characterization of vulnerability. However, vulnerability is a result of diverse historical, social, economic, political, cultural, institutional, natural resource, and environmental conditions and processes and is not easily reduced to a single metric. Furthermore, despite the widespread characterization of vulnerability, Arctic Indigenous communities are extremely resilient as evidenced by subsistence institutions that have been developed over thousands of years. We explored the vulnerability of subsistence systems in the Cup’ik village of Chevak and Yup’ik village of Kotlik through the lens of the strong seasonal dimensions of resource availability. In the context of subsistence harvesting in Alaskan Native Villages, vulnerability may be determined by analyzing the exposure of subsistence resources to climate change impacts, the sensitivity of a community to those impacts, and the capacity of subsistence institutions to absorb these impacts. Subsistence resources, their seasonality, and perceived impacts to these resources were investigated via semi-structured interviews and participatory mapping-calendar workshops. Results suggest that while these communities are experiencing disproportionate impacts of climate change, Indigenous ingenuity and adaptability provide an avenue for culturally appropriate adaptation strategies. However, despite this capacity for resiliency, rapid socio-cultural changes have the potential to be a barrier to community adaptation and the recent, ongoing shifts in seasonal weather patterns, may make seasonally specific subsistence adaptations to landscape particularly vulnerable.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Evidence that life history characteristics of wild birds influence infection rates and exposure to influenza A viruses

We report on life history characteristics, temporal, and age-related effects influencing the frequency of occurrence of avian influenza (AI) viruses in four species of migratory geese breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Emperor geese ( Chen canagica ), cackling geese ( Branta hutchinsii ), greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons ), and black brant ( Branta bernicla ), were all tested for active infection of AI viruses upon arrival in early May, during nesting in June, and while molting in July and August, 2006–2010 ( n = 14,323). Additionally, prior exposure to AI viruses was assessed via prevalence of antibodies from sera samples collected during late summer in 2009 and 2010. Results suggest that geese are uncommonly infected by low pathogenic AI viruses while in Alaska. The percent of birds actively shedding AI viruses varied annually, and was highest in 2006 and 2010 (1–3%) and lowest in 2007, 2008, and 2009 (<0.70%). Contrary to findings in ducks, the highest incidence of infected birds was in late spring when birds first arrived from staging and wintering areas. Despite low prevalence, most geese were previously exposed to AI viruses, as indicated by high levels of seroprevalence during late summer (47%–96% across species; n = 541 ). Seroprevalence was >95% for emperor geese, a species that spends part of its life cycle in Asia and is endemic to Alaska and the Bering Sea region, compared to 40–60% for the other three species, whose entire life cycles are within the western hemisphere. Birds <45 days of age showed little past exposure to AI viruses, although antibodies were detected in samples from 5-week old birds in 2009. Seroprevalence of known age black brant revealed that no birds <4 years old had seroconverted, compared to 49% of birds ≥4 years of age.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Experimental challenge and pathology of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in dunlin ( Calidris alpina ), an intercontinental migrant shorebird species

Background Shorebirds (Charadriiformes) are considered one of the primary reservoirs of avian influenza. Because these species are highly migratory, there is concern that infected shorebirds may be a mechanism by which highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 could be introduced into North America from Asia. Large numbers of dunlin ( Calidris alpina ) migrate from wintering areas in central and eastern Asia, where HPAIV H5N1 is endemic, across the Bering Sea to breeding areas in Alaska. Low pathogenic avian influenza virus has been previously detected in dunlin, and thus, dunlin represent a potential risk to transport HPAIV to North America. To date no experimental challenge studies have been performed in shorebirds. Methods Wild dunlin were inoculated intranasally and intrachoanally various doses of HPAIV H5N1. The birds were monitored daily for virus excretion, disease signs, morbidity, and mortality. Results The infectious dose of HPAIV H5N1 in dunlin was determined to be 10 1.7 EID 50 /100 &mu;l and that the lethal dose was 10 1.83 EID 50 /100 &mu;l. Clinical signs were consistent with neurotropic disease, and histochemical analyses revealed that infection was systemic with viral antigen and RNA most consistently found in brain tissues. Infected birds excreted relatively large amounts of virus orally (10 4 EID 50 ) and smaller amounts cloacally. Conclusions Dunlin are highly susceptible to infection with HPAIV H5N1. They become infected after exposure to relatively small doses of the virus and if they become infected, they are most likely to suffer mortality within 3&ndash;5 days. These results have important implications regarding the risks of transport and transmission of HPAIV H5N1 to North America by this species and raises questions for further investigation.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Effects of El Niño on distribution and reproductive performance of Black Brant

Climate in low-latitude wintering areas may influence temperate and high-latitude breeding populations of birds, but demonstrations of such relationships have been rare because of difficulties in linking wintering with breeding populations. We used long-term aerial surveys in Mexican wintering areas and breeding areas in Alaska, USA, to assess numbers of Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ; hereafter brant) on their principal wintering and breeding area in El Niño and non-El Niño years. We used Pollock's robust design to directly estimate probability of breeding and apparent annual survival of individually marked brant at the Tutakoke River (TR) colony, Alaska, in each year between 1988 and 2001. Fewer brant wintered in Mexico during every El Niño event since 1965. Fewer brant were observed on the principal breeding area following each El Niño since surveys began in 1985. Probability of breeding was negatively related to January sea surface temperature along the subtropical coast of North America during the preceding winter. Between 23% (five-year-olds or older) and 30% (three-year-olds) fewer brant nested in 1998 following the strong El Niño event in the winter of 1997–1998 than in non-El Niño years. This finding is consistent with life history theory, which predicts that longer-lived species preserve adult survival at the expense of reproduction. Oceanographic conditions off Baja California, apparently by their effect on Zostera marina (eelgrass), strongly influence winter distribution of brant geese and their reproduction (but not survival), which in turn affects ecosystem dynamics in Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2001

Effects of gull predation and weather on survival of emperor goose goslings

Numbers of emperor geese ( Chen canagica ) have remained depressed since the mid-1980s. Despite increases in glaucous gulls ( Larus hyperboreus ), a primary predator of goslings, little information existed to assess whether recent patterns of gosling survival have been a major factor affecting population dynamics. We used observations of known families of emperor geese to estimate rates of gosling survival during 1993-96 on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Survival of goslings to 30 days of age varied among years from 0.332 during 1994 to 0.708 during 1995. Survival was lowest during 1993-94, which corresponded with the years of highest frequency of disturbance of goose broods by glaucous gulls. Rainfall during early brood rearing was much higher in 1994 than other years, and this corresponded to low survival among goslings ≤5 days of age. Numbers of juveniles in families during fall staging were negatively related to rainfall during early brood rearing (n = 23 yr). Although there are no data to assess whether gosling survival in emperor geese has declined from some previous level, current survival rates of emperor goose goslings are as high as or higher than those observed in other goose species that are rapidly increasing. A proposed reduction of glaucous gull numbers by managers may not be the most effective means for increasing population growth in emperor geese.

Alaska↗
USGS2001

Topography and flooding of coastal ecosystems on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska: Implications for sea level rise

We measured surface elevations, stage of annual peak flooding, and sedimentation along 10 toposequences across coastal ecosystems on the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta in western Alaska during 1994-1998 to assess some of the physical processes affecting ecosystem distribution. An ecotype was assigned to each of 566 points, and differences in elevations among 24 ecotypes were analyzed within individual toposequences and across the 40 x 40-km study area. Elevations of vegetated ecotypes along the longest toposequence rose only ~1 m over a distance of 7.5 km, and mean elevations of most ecotype across the study area were within 0.5 m of mean higher-high water (1.47 m). During 1994 to 1998, monitoring of annual peak stage using crest gauges revealed flooding from the highest fall storm surge reached 2.58 m (1.11 m above mean higher-high tide). In each year, only the highest surface was unaffected by flooding. Mean annual sedimentation rates for the various ecotypes were 8.0 ram/y on tidal flats, 1.4 to 3.8 mm/y on the active floodplain, 0.1-0.2 mm/y on the inactive floodplain, and 0 mm/ on the abandoned floodplain. If sea levels in the Bering Sea rise ~0.5 m by 2100, as predicted by some on a global basis, large portions of the coastal margin of the delta could be regularly inundated by water during high tides, and even the highest ecotypes could be affected by storm surges. Predicting the extent of future inundation is difficult, however, because of the changes in the ground-surface elevation through sedimentation, organic matter accumulation, and permafrost development.

Alaska↗
USGS1998

Effect of lead poisoning on spectacled eider survival rates

Spectacled eider ( Somateria fischeri ) populations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, declined rapidly through the 1980s, and low adult female survival was suggested as the likely cause of the decline. We used mark-resighting techniques to study annual survival rates of adult female spectacled eiders at 2 sites on the Y-K Delta during 1993-96. Our data suggest survival rates may differ among sites. However, a model fit to a subset of data on females for which we knew lead levels in blood suggests lead exposure influences survival. Adult females exposed to lead prior to hatching their eggs survived at a much lower rate (0.44 ?? 0.10) each year than females not exposed to lead before hatch (0.78 ?? 0.05). We suggest most mortality from lead exposure occurs over winter, and the related reduction in adult survival may be impeding recovery of local populations. We encourage managers to curtail input of lead shot into the environment.

Alaska↗
USGS1998

A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

Alaska↗