Geology topics

Research about Wisconsin

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Wisconsin.

At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources

USGS2013

Nest success of grassland birds in oak barrens and dry prairies in west central Wisconsin

We investigated nesting success of grassland birds on dry prairie and oak barrens patches embedded within a forested matrix on Fort McCoy Military Installation. We monitored 280 nests of 9 grassland-bird species from mid-May to late July 2000–2002. Pooecetes gramineus (Vesper Sparrow) and Ammodramus savannarum (Grasshopper Sparrow) were the most abundant nesting species. Vesper Sparrow nest densities were highest on smaller grassland patches, while Grasshopper Sparrow nest densities were highest on the largest patches. Probability of fledging at least one young was 0.20 for Vesper Sparrow. For Grasshopper Sparrow, daily nest survival was higher for nests placed away from trees; probability of fledging at least one young was 0.28 for nests away from trees and 0.05 for nests near trees. Maintaining remnant native habitats is important, and management of woody features may help improve habitat quality for some grassland birds in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Evidence of Hybridization between Common Gartersnakes ( Thamnophis sirtalis ) and Butler’s Gartersnakes ( Thamnophis butleri ) in Wisconsin (USA).

Snakes within the genus Thamnophis (Gartersnakes and Ribbonsnakes) are often found in sympatry throughout their geographic distributions. Past work has indicated that some sympatric species within this genus may hybridize, but research of this nature is limited. We attempted to determine whether hybridization occurs between two Thamnophis species native to the upper midwestern United States: Common Gartersnake ( Thamnophis sirtalis ) and the Butler's Gartersnake ( Thamnophis butleri ). We sampled snakes ( n = 411) across 26 locations in Wisconsin, including sites where both species coexist and sites where only Common Gartersnakes are found. We conducted genetic analyses on tissue collected from individuals field-identified as Common Gartersnakes or Butler's Gartersnakes. To verify the results of our field-collected data, we analyzed tissues from juvenile snakes ( n = 4) suspected to be the offspring of a Common Gartersnake and a Butler's Gartersnake that were housed together in a captive situation. Of the field-collected snakes analyzed, eight snakes were consistent with expected Common × Butler's Gartersnake hybrids. All four of the captive offspring analyzed resolved as putative hybrids, corresponding with our field-collected samples. Butler's Gartersnake is a globally rare species, endemic only to the upper midwestern United States. Studies involving the potential for hybridization between common and uncommon species are useful from a conservation perspective. The low incidence of hybridization we observed would indicate that hybridization between these species is uncommon. Further research investigating rates of hybridization would help assess any potential threat posed by outbreeding between common and rare gartersnakes in this region of the United States.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Using habitat suitability models to target invasive plant species surveys

Managers need new tools for detecting the movement and spread of nonnative, invasive species. Habitat suitability models are a popular tool for mapping the potential distribution of current invaders, but the ability of these models to prioritize monitoring efforts has not been tested in the field. We tested the utility of an iterative sampling design (i.e., models based on field observations used to guide subsequent field data collection to improve the model), hypothesizing that model performance would increase when new data were gathered from targeted sampling using criteria based on the initial model results. We also tested the ability of habitat suitability models to predict the spread of invasive species, hypothesizing that models would accurately predict occurrences in the field, and that the use of targeted sampling would detect more species with less sampling effort than a nontargeted approach. We tested these hypotheses on two species at the state scale ( Centaurea stoebe and Pastinaca sativa ) in Wisconsin (USA), and one genus at the regional scale ( Tamarix ) in the western United States. These initial data were merged with environmental data at 30-m 2 resolution for Wisconsin and 1-km 2 resolution for the western United States to produce our first iteration models. We stratified these initial models to target field sampling and compared our models and success at detecting our species of interest to other surveys being conducted during the same field season (i.e., nontargeted sampling). Although more data did not always improve our models based on correct classification rate (CCR), sensitivity, specificity, kappa, or area under the curve (AUC), our models generated from targeted sampling data always performed better than models generated from nontargeted data. For Wisconsin species, the model described actual locations in the field fairly well (kappa = 0.51, 0.19, P < 0.01), and targeted sampling did detect more species than nontargeted sampling with less sampling effort (χ 2 ) = 47.42, P < 0.01). From these findings, we conclude that habitat suitability models can be highly useful tools for guiding invasive species monitoring, and we support the use of an iterative sampling design for guiding such efforts.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

The 3D Elevation Program: summary for Wisconsin

Elevation data are essential to a broad range of applications, including forest resources management, wildlife and habitat management, national security, recreation, and many others. For the State of Wisconsin, elevation data are critical for agriculture and precision farming, natural resources conservation, flood risk management, infrastructure and construction management, water supply and quality, and other business uses. Today, high-quality light detection and ranging (lidar) data are the sources for creating elevation models and other elevation datasets. Federal, State, and local agencies work in partnership to (1) replace data, on a national basis, that are (on average) 30 years old and of lower quality and (2) provide coverage where publicly accessible data do not exist. A joint goal of State and Federal partners is to acquire consistent, statewide coverage to support existing and emerging applications enabled by lidar data. The new 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) initiative, managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), responds to the growing need for high-quality topographic data and a wide range of other three-dimensional representations of the Nation’s natural and constructed features.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Evaluation of potential sources and transport mechanisms of fecal indicator bacteria to beach water, Murphy Park Beach, Door County, Wisconsin

Fecal Indicator Bacteria (FIB) concentrations in beach water have been used for many years as a criterion for closing beaches due to potential health concerns. Yet, current understanding of sources and transport mechanisms that drive FIB occurrence remains insufficient for accurate prediction of closures at many beaches. Murphy Park Beach, a relatively pristine beach on Green Bay in Door County, Wis., was selected for a study to evaluate FIB sources and transport mechanisms. Although the relatively pristine nature of the beach yielded no detection of pathogenic bacterial genes and relatively low FIB concentrations during the study period compared with other Great Lakes Beaches, its selection limited the number of confounding FIB sources and associated transport mechanisms. The primary sources of FIB appear to be internal to the beach rather than external sources such as rivers, storm sewer outfalls, and industrial discharges. Three potential FIB sources were identified: sand, swash-zone groundwater, and Cladophora mats. Modest correlations between FIB concentrations in these potential source reservoirs and FIB concentrations at the beach from the same day illustrate the importance of understanding transport mechanisms between FIB sources and the water column. One likely mechanism for transport and dispersion of FIB from sand and Cladophora sources appears to be agitation of Cladophora mats and erosion of beach sand due to storm activity, as inferred from storm indicators including turbidity, wave height, current speed, wind speed, sky visibility, 24-hour precipitation, and suspended particulate concentration. FIB concentrations in beach water had a statistically significant relation (p-value &lsaquo;0.05) with the magnitude of these storm indicators. In addition, transport of FIB in swash-zone groundwater into beach water appears to be driven by groundwater recharge associated with multiday precipitation and corresponding increased swash-zone groundwater discharge at the beach, as indicated by an increase in the specific conductance of beach water. Understanding the dynamics of FIB sources (sand, swash-zone groundwater, and Cladophora ) and transport mechanisms (dispersion and erosion from storm energy, and swash-zone groundwater discharge) is important for improving predictions of potential health risks from FIB in beach water.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Effects of best-management practices in Bower Creek in the East River priority watershed, Wisconsin, 1991-2009

Hydrologic and water-quality data were collected at Bower Creek during the periods before best-management practices (BMPs), and after BMPs were installed for evaluation of water-quality improvements. The monitoring was done between 1990 and 2009 with the pre-BMP period ending in July 1994 and the post-BMP period beginning in October 2006. BMPs installed in this basin included streambank protection and fencing, stream crossings, grade stabilization, buffer strips, various barnyard-runoff controls, nutrient management, and a low degree of upland BMPs. Water-quality evaluations included base-flow concentrations and storm loads for total suspended solids, total phosphorus, and ammonia nitrogen. The only reductions detected between the base-flow samples of the pre- and post-BMP periods were in median concentrations of total phosphorus from base-flow samples, but not for total suspended solids or dissolved ammonia nitrogen. Differences in storm loads for the three water-quality constituents monitored were not observed during the study period.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Simulation of the shallow groundwater-flow system in the Forest County Potawatomi Community, Forest County, Wisconsin

The shallow groundwater system in the Forest County Potawatomi Comminity, Forest County, Wisconsin, was simulated by expanding and recalibrating a previously calibrated regional model. The existing model was updated using newly collected water-level measurements, inclusion of surface-water features beyond the previous near-field boundary, and refinements to surface-water features. The updated model then was used to calculate the area contributing recharge for seven existing and three proposed pumping locations on lands of the Forest County Potawatomi Community. The existing wells were the subject of a 2004 source-water evaluation in which areas contributing recharge were calculated using the fixed-radius method. The motivation for the present (2012) project was to improve the level of detail of areas contributing recharge for the existing wells and to provide similar analysis for the proposed wells. Delineated 5- and 10-year areas contributing recharge for existing and proposed wells extend from the areas of pumping to delineate the area at the surface contributing recharge to the wells. Steady-state pumping was simulated for two scenarios: a base-pumping scenario using pumping rates that reflect what the Community currently (2012) pumps (or plans to in the case of proposed wells), and a high-pumping scenario in which the rate was set to the maximum expected from wells installed in this area, according to the Forest County Potawatomi Community Natural Resources Department. In general, the 10-year areas contributing recharge did not intersect surface-water bodies. The 5- and 10-year areas contributing recharge simulated at the maximum pumping rate at Bug Lake Road may intersect Bug Lake. At the casino near the Town of Carter, Wisconsin, the 10-year areas contributing recharge intersect infiltration ponds. At the Devils Lake and Lois Crow Drive wells, areas contributing recharge are near cultural features, including residences.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Organic waste compounds in streams: Occurrence and aquatic toxicity in different stream compartments, flow regimes, and land uses in southeast Wisconsin, 2006–9

An assessment of organic chemicals and aquatic toxicity in streams located near Milwaukee, Wisconsin, indicated high potential for adverse impacts on aquatic organisms that could be related to organic waste compounds (OWCs). OWCs used in agriculture, industry, and households make their way into surface waters through runoff, leaking septic-conveyance systems, regulated and unregulated discharges, and combined sewage overflows, among other sources. Many of these compounds are toxic at elevated concentrations and (or) known to have endocrine-disrupting potential, and often they occur as complex mixtures. There is still much to be learned about the chronic exposure effects of these compounds on aquatic populations. During 2006–9, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD), conducted a study to determine the occurrence and potential toxicity of OWCs in different stream compartments and flow regimes for streams in the Milwaukee area. Samples were collected at 17 sites and analyzed for a suite of 69 OWCs. Three types of stream compartments were represented: water column, streambed pore water, and streambed sediment. Water-column samples were subdivided by flow regime into stormflow and base-flow samples. One or more compounds were detected in all 196 samples collected, and 64 of the 69 compounds were detected at least once. Base-flow samples had the lowest detection rates, with a median of 12 compounds detected per sample. Median detection rates for stormflow, pore-water, and sediment samples were more than double that of base-flow samples. Compounds with the highest detection rates include polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), insecticides, herbicides, and dyes/pigments. Elevated occurrence and concentrations of some compounds were detected in samples from urban sites, as compared with more rural sites, especially during stormflow conditions. These include the PAHs and the domestic waste-water-indicator compounds, among others. Urban runoff and storm-related leaks of sanitary sewers and (or) septic systems may be important sources of these and other compounds to the streams. The Kinnickinnic River, a highly urbanized site, had the highest detection rates and concentrations of compounds of all the sampled sites. The Milwaukee River near Cedarburg—one of the least urban sites—and the Outer Milwaukee Harbor site had the lowest detection rates and concentrations. Aquatic-toxicity benchmarks were exceeded for 12 of the 25 compounds with known benchmarks. The compounds with the greatest benchmark exceedances were the PAHs, both in terms of exceedance frequency (up to 93 percent for some compounds in sediment samples) and magnitude (concentrations up to 1,024 times greater than the benchmark value). Other compounds with toxicity-benchmark exceedances include Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (a plasticizer), 2-Methylnapthalene (a component of fuel and oil), phenol (an antimicrobial disinfectant with diverse uses), and 4-Nonylphenol (sum of all isomers; a detergent metabolite, among other uses). Analyzed as a mixture, the suite of PAH compounds were found to be potentially toxic for most non-base-flow samples. Bioassay tests were conducted on samples from 14 streams: Ceriodaphnia dubia in base-flow samples, Ceriodaphnia dubia and Hyallela azteca in pore-water samples, and Hyallela azteca and Chironomus tentans in sediment samples. The greatest adverse effect was observed in tests with Chironomus tentans from sediment samples. The weight of Chironomus tentans after exposure to sediments decreased with increased OWC concentrations. This was most evident in the relation between PAH results and Chironomus tentans bioassay results for the majority of samples; however, solvents and flame retardants appeared to be important for one site each. These results for PAHs were consistent with assessment of PAH potency factors for sediment, indicating that PAHs were likely to have adverse effects on aquatic organisms in many of the streams studied.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period 2010–2100 showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature over the scenario period. Scenarios of future precipitation did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased over time for both temperature and precipitation. Separate calibration of the uncoupled groundwater and surface-water models did not provide a representative initial parameter set for coupled model calibration. A sequentially linked calibration, in which the uncoupled models were linked by means of utility software, provided a starting parameter set suitable for coupled model calibration. Even with sequentially linked calibration, however, transmissivity of the lower part of the aquifer required further adjustment during coupled model calibration to attain reasonable parameter values for evaporation rates off a small seepage lake (a lake with no appreciable surface-water outlets) with a long history of study. The resulting coupled model was well calibrated to most types of observed time-series data used for calibration. Daily stream temperatures measured during 2002 were successfully simulated with SNTEMP; the model fit was acceptable for a range of groundwater inflow rates into the streams. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snow-melt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions in rainfed wetlands and uplands, in contrast to less drying in groundwater-fed systems. Seepage lakes showed larger forecast stage declines related to climate change than did drainage lakes (lakes with outlet streams). Seepage lakes higher in the watershed (nearer to groundwater divides) had less groundwater inflow and thus had larger forecast declines in lake stage; however, ground-water inflow to seepage lakes in general tended to increase as a fraction of the lake budgets with lake-stage decline because inward hydraulic gradients increased. Drainage lakes were characterized by less simulated stage decline as reductions in outlet streamflow of set losses to other water flows. Net groundwater inflow tended to decrease in drainage lakes over the scenario period. Simulated stream temperatures increased appreciably with climate change. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the stream characterized by a high groundwater inflow rate and 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the stream with a lower rate. The climate drivers used for the climate-change scenarios had appreciable variation between the General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; this uncertainty was reflected in hydrologic flow and temperature model results. Thus, as with all forecasts of this type, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Refinement of regression models to estimate real-time concentrations of contaminants in the Menomonee River drainage basin, southeast Wisconsin, 2008-11

In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District initiated a study to develop regression models to estimate real-time concentrations and loads of chloride, suspended solids, phosphorus, and bacteria in streams near Milwaukee, Wisconsin. To collect monitoring data for calibration of models, water-quality sensors and automated samplers were installed at six sites in the Menomonee River drainage basin. The sensors continuously measured four potential explanatory variables: water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity. Discrete water-quality samples were collected and analyzed for five response variables: chloride, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, Escherichia coli bacteria, and fecal coliform bacteria. Using the first year of data, regression models were developed to continuously estimate the response variables on the basis of the continuously measured explanatory variables. Those models were published in a previous report. In this report, those models are refined using 2 years of additional data, and the relative improvement in model predictability is discussed. In addition, a set of regression models is presented for a new site in the Menomonee River Basin, Underwood Creek at Wauwatosa. The refined models use the same explanatory variables as the original models. The chloride models all used specific conductance as the explanatory variable, except for the model for the Little Menomonee River near Freistadt, which used both specific conductance and turbidity. Total suspended solids and total phosphorus models used turbidity as the only explanatory variable, and bacteria models used water temperature and turbidity as explanatory variables. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), used to compare the coefficients in the original models to those in the refined models calibrated using all of the data, showed that only 3 of the 25 original models changed significantly. Root-mean-squared errors (RMSEs) calculated for both the original and refined models using the entire dataset showed a median improvement in RMSE of 2.1 percent, with a range of 0.0–13.9 percent. Therefore most of the original models did almost as well at estimating concentrations during the validation period (October 2009–September 2011) as the refined models, which were calibrated using those data. Application of these refined models can produce continuously estimated concentrations of chloride, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, E. coli bacteria, and fecal coliform bacteria that may assist managers in quantifying the effects of land-use changes and improvement projects, establish total maximum daily loads, and enable better informed decision making in the future.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Hydrology and water quality of Shell Lake, Washburn County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of diversion and changes in water level on the water quality of a shallow terminal lake

Shell Lake is a relatively shallow terminal lake (tributaries but no outlets) in northwestern Wisconsin that has experienced approximately 10 feet (ft) of water-level fluctuation over more than 70 years of record and extensive flooding of nearshore areas starting in the early 2000s. The City of Shell Lake (City) received a permit from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources in 2002 to divert water from the lake to a nearby river in order to lower water levels and reduce flooding. Previous studies suggested that water-level fluctuations were driven by long-term cycles in precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, although questions about the lake’s connection with the groundwater system remained. The permit required that the City evaluate assumptions about lake/groundwater interactions made in previous studies and evaluate the effects of the water diversion on water levels in Shell Lake and other nearby lakes. Therefore, a cooperative study between the City and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was initiated to improve the understanding of the hydrogeology of the area and evaluate potential effects of the diversion on water levels in Shell Lake, the surrounding groundwater system, and nearby lakes. Concerns over deteriorating water quality in the lake, possibly associated with changes in water level, prompted an additional cooperative project between the City and the USGS to evaluate efeffects of changes in nutrient loading associated with changes in water levels on the water quality of Shell Lake. Numerical models were used to evaluate how the hydrology and water quality responded to diversion of water from the lake and historical changes in the watershed. The groundwater-flow model MODFLOW was used to simulate groundwater movement in the area around Shell Lake, including groundwater/surface-water interactions. Simulated results from the MODFLOW model indicate that groundwater flows generally northward in the area around Shell Lake, with flow locally converging toward the lake. Total groundwater inflow to Shell Lake is small (approximately 5 percent of the water budget) compared with water entering the lake from precipitation (83 percent) and surface-water runoff (13 percent). The MODFLOW model also was used to simulate average annual hydrologic conditions from 1949 to 2009, including effects of the removal of 3 billion gallons of water during 2003–5. The maximum decline in simulated average annual water levels for Shell Lake due to the diversion alone was 3.3 ft at the end of the diversion process in 2005. Model simulations also indicate that although water level continued to decline through 2009 in response to local weather patterns (local drought), the effects of the diversion decreased after the diversion ceased; that is, after 4 years of recovery (2006–9), drawdown attributable to the diversion alone decreased by about 0.6 ft because of increased groundwater inflow and decreased lake-water outflow to groundwater caused by the artificially lower lake level. A delayed response in drawdown of less than 0.5 ft was transmitted through the groundwater-flow system to upgradient lakes. This relatively small effect on upgradient lakes is attributed in part to extensive layers of shallow clay that limit lake/groundwater interaction in the area. Data collected in the lake indicated that Shell Lake is polymictic (characterized by frequent deep mixing) and that its productivity is limited by the amount of phosphorus in the lake. The lake was typically classified as oligotrophic-mesotrophic in June, mesotrophic in July, and mesotrophic-eutrophic in August. In polymictic lakes like Shell Lake, phosphorus released from the sediments is not trapped near the bottom of the lake but is intermittently released to the shallow water, resulting in deteriorating water quality as summer progresses. Because the productivity of Shell Lake is limited by phosphorus, the sources of phosphorus to the lake were quantified, and the response in water quality to changes in phosphorus inputs were evaluated by means of eutrophication models. During 2009, the total input of phosphorus to Shell Lake was 1,730 pounds (lb), of which 1,320 lb came from external sources (76 percent) and 414 lb came from internal loading from sediments in the lake (24 percent). The largest external source was from surface-water runoff, which delivered about 52 percent of the total phosphorus load compared with about 13 percent of the water input. The second largest source was from precipitation (wetfall and dryfall), which delivered 19 percent of the load compared to about 83 percent of the water input. Contributions from septic systems and groundwater accounted for about 3 and 2 percent, respectively. Increased runoff raises water levels in the lake but does not necessarily increase phosphorus loading because phosphorus concentrations in the tributaries decline during increased flow, possibly because of shorter retention times in upstream wetlands. Phosphorus loading to the lake in 2009 represented what occurred after a series of dry years; therefore, this information was combined with data from 2011, a wet year, to estimate phosphorus loading during a range of hydrologic conditions by estimating loading from each component of the phosphorus budget for each year from 1949 to 2011. Comparisons of historical water-quality records with historical water levels and applications of a hydrodynamic model (Dynamic Lake Model, DLM) and empirical eutrophication models were used to understand how changes in water level and the coinciding changes in phosphorus loading affect the water quality of Shell Lake. DLM simulations indicate that large changes in water level (approximately 10 ft) affect the persistence of stratification in the lake. During periods with low water levels, the lake is a well-mixed, polymictic system, with water quality degrading slightly as summer progresses. During periods with high water levels, the lake is more stratified, and phosphorus from internal loading is trapped in the hypolimnion and released later in summer, which results in more extreme seasonality in water quality and better clarity in early summer. Results of eutrophication model simulations using a range in external phosphorus inputs illustrate how water quality in Shell Lake (phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi depths) responds to changes in external phosphorus loading. Results indicate that a 50-percent reduction in external loading from that measured in 2009 would be required to change phosphorus concentrations from 0.018 milligram per liter (mg/L) (measured in 2009) to 0.012 mg/L (estimated for the mid-1800s from analysis of diatoms in sediment cores). Such reductions in phosphorus loading cannot be accomplished by targeting septic systems or internal loading alone because septic systems contribute only about 3 percent of the phosphorus input to the lake, and internal loading from the sediments of Shell Lake contributes only about 25 percent of phosphorus input. Complete elimination of phosphorus from septic systems and internal loading would decrease the phosphorus concentrations in the lake by 0.003–0.004 mg/L. Therefore, reducing phosphorus concentration in the lake more than by 0.004 mg/L requires decreasing phosphorus loading from surface-water contributions, primarily runoff to the lake. Reconstructed changes in water quality from 1860 to 2010, based on changes in the diatom communities archived in the sediments and eutrophication model simulations, suggest that anthropogenic changes in the watershed (sawmill construction in 1881; the establishment of the village of Shell Lake; and land-use changes in the 1920s, including increased agriculture) had a much larger effect on water quality than the natural changes associated with fluctuations in water level. Although the effects of natural changes in water level on water quality appear to be small, changes in water level do have a modest effect on water quality, primarily manifested as small improvements during higher water levels. Fluctuations in water level, however, have a larger effect on the seasonality of water-quality patterns, with better water quality, especially increased Secchi depths, in early summer during years with high water levels.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Historic distribution of Common Loons in Wisconsin in relation to changes in lake characteristics and surrounding land use

A study was conducted to evaluate changes in water quality and land-use change associated with lakes that are south of the current breeding range of Common Loons in Wisconsin but that historically supported breeding loons. Museum collection records and published accounts were examined to identify lakes in southern Wisconsin with a former history of loon nesting activity. Historical and recent water quality data were obtained from state and USEPA databases for the former loon nesting lakes that were identified and paleolimnological data were acquired for these lakes from sediment cores used to infer historical total phosphorus concentrations from diatom assemblages. U.S. General Land Office notes and maps from the original land survey conducted in Wisconsin during 1832-1866 and the National Land Cover Database 2006 were utilized to assess land use changes that occurred within the drainage basins of former loon nesting lakes. Our results indicate that the landscape of southern Wisconsin has changed dramatically since Common Loons last nested in the region. A number of factors have likely contributed to the decreased appeal of southern Wisconsin lakes to breeding Common Loons, including changes to water quality, altered trophic status resulting from nutrient enrichment, and reductions in suitable nesting habitat stemming from shoreline development and altered water levels. Increased nutrient and sediment inputs from agricultural and developed areas likely contributed to a reduction in habitat quality.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Potential effects of climate change on inland glacial lakes and implications for lake-dependent biota in Wisconsin: final report April 2013

The economic vitality and quality of life of many northern Wisconsin communities is closely associated with the ecological condition of the abundant water resources in the region. Climate change models predict warmer temperatures, changes to precipitation patterns, and increased evapotranspiration in the Great Lakes region. Recently (1950-2006), many regions of Wisconsin have experienced warming, and precipitation has generally increased except in far northern Wisconsin. Modeling conducted by the University of Wisconsin Nelson Environmental Institute Center for Climate Research predicts an increase in annual temperature by the middle of the 21st century of approximately 6° F statewide, and an increase in precipitation of 1”–2”. However, summer precipitation in the northern part of the state is expected to be less and winter precipitation will be greater. By the end of the 21st century, the magnitude of changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to intensify. Such climatic changes have altered, and would further alter hydrological, chemical, and physical properties of inland lakes. Lake-dependent wildlife sensitive to changes in water quality, are particularly susceptible to lake quality-associated habitat changes and are likely to suffer restrictions to current breeding distributions under some climate change scenarios. We have selected the common loon (Gavia immer) to serve as a sentinel lake-dependent piscivorous species to be used in the development of a template for linking primary lake-dependent biota endpoints (e.g., decline in productivity and/or breeding range contraction) to important lake quality indicators. In the current project, we evaluate how changes in freshwater habitat quality (specifically lake clarity) may impact common loon lake occupancy in Wisconsin under detailed climate-change scenarios. In addition, we employ simple land-use/land cover and habitat scenarios to illustrate the potential interaction of climate and land-use/land cover effects. The methods employed here provide a template for studies where integration of physical and biotic models is used to project future conditions under various climate and land use change scenarios. Findings presented here project the future conditions of lakes and loons within an important watershed in northern Wisconsin – of importance to water resource managers and state citizens alike.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

An at-grade stabilization structure impact on runoff and suspended sediment

In recent years, agricultural runoff has received more attention as a major contributor to surface water pollution. This is especially true for the unglaciated area of Wisconsin, given this area's steep topography, which makes it highly susceptible to runoff and soil loss. We evaluated the ability of an at-grade stabilization structure (AGSS), designed as a conservation practice to reduce the amount of overland runoff and suspended sediment transported to the surface waters of an agricultural watershed. Eight years of storm and baseflow data collected by the US Geological Survey–Wisconsin Water Science Center on a farm in west central Wisconsin were analyzed for changes in precipitation, storm runoff volume, and suspended sediment concentration before and after installation of an AGSS. The agricultural research site was designed as a paired watershed study in which monitoring stations were installed on the perennial streams draining both control and treatment watersheds. Linear mixed effects model analyses were conducted to determine if any statistically significant changes occurred in the water quality parameters before and after the AGSS was installed. Results indicated no significant changes ( p = 0.51) in average event precipitation and runoff volumes before and after installation of the AGSS in either the treatment (NW) or control (SW) watersheds. However, the AGSS did significantly reduce the average suspended sediment concentration in the event runoff water ( p = 0.02) in the NW from 972 to 263 mg L –1 . In addition, particle size analyses, using light diffraction techniques, were conducted on soil samples taken from within the AGSS and adjacent valley and ridge top to determine if suspended sediments were being retained within the structure. Statistical analysis revealed a significantly ( p < 0.001) larger proportion of clay inside the AGSS (37%) than outside (30%). These results indicate that the AGSS was successful in reducing the amount of suspended sediment transported to nearby surface waters. The cost of an AGSS can range from US$3,500 to US$8,000, depending on size. Thus, these structures provide a cheap and effective means of improving water quality in highly erosive landscapes.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Quantity, structure, and habitat selection of natural spawning reefs by walleyes in a north temperate lake: A multiscale analysis

Spawning habitat, the cornerstone of self-sustaining, naturally reproducing walleye Sander vitreus populations, has received limited quantitative research. Our goal was to quantitatively describe the structure and quantity of natural walleye spawning habitat and evaluate potential selection of habitat in Big Crooked Lake, Wisconsin. In 2004 and 2005, we located and delineated walleye egg deposition polygons through visual snorkel and scuba surveys. We also delineated recently deposited, adhesive egg patches daily along one spawning reef in 2005. To determine habitat selection, we quantified and compared spawning and lakewide available habitat at different scales. In both years, walleyes used similar spawning habitat, including three geomorphic types: linear shorelines, a point bar, and an island. Walleyes used only 14% of the entire lake shoreline and 39% of the shoreline comprised of gravel (6.4–76.0 mm), cobble (76.1–149.9 mm), or coarser substrates for spawning in 2005, indicating selection of specific spawning habitat. Lakewide, walleyes spawned close to shore (outer egg deposition polygon boundary mean distance = 2.7 m), in shallow water (outer egg deposition polygon boundary mean depth = 0.3 m), and over gravel substrate (percent coverage mean = 64.3) having low embeddedness (mean = 1.30). Our best nearshore (0–13-m) resource selection function predicted an increase in the relative probability of egg deposition with the increasing abundance of gravel, cobble, and rubble (150.0–303.9-mm) substrates and a decrease with increasing distance from shore and water depth (89.9% overall correct classification). Adhesive egg patches confirmed that walleyes actively chose nearshore, shallow-water, and coarse-substrate spawning habitat. The quantitative habitat information and predictive models will assist biologists in developing walleye spawning reef protection strategies and potentially aid in designing and evaluating artificial spawning reefs.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Control of reed canarygrass promotes wetland herb and tree seedling establishment in an upper Mississippi River Floodplain forest

Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) is recognized as a problematic invader of North American marshes, decreasing biodiversity and persisting in the face of control efforts. Less is known about its ecology or management in forested wetlands, providing an opportunity to apply information about factors critical to an invader's control in one wetland type to another. In a potted plant experiment and in the field, we documented strong competitive effects of reed canarygrass on the establishment and early growth of tree seedlings. In the field, we demonstrated the effectiveness of a novel restoration strategy, combining site scarification with late fall applications of pre-emergent herbicides. Treatments delayed reed canarygrass emergence the following spring, creating a window of opportunity for the early growth of native plants in the absence of competition from the grass. They also allowed for follow-up herbicide treatments during the growing season. We documented greater establishment of wetland herbs and tree seedlings in treated areas. Data from small exclosures suggest, however, that deer browsing can limit tree seedling height growth in floodplain restorations. Slower tree growth will delay canopy closure, potentially allowing reed canarygrass re-invasion. Thus, it may be necessary to protect tree seedlings from herbivory to assure forest regeneration.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Mercury and other element exposure in tree swallows nesting at low pH and neutral pH lakes in northern Wisconsin USA

The primary objective of this study was to determine whether tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor ) demonstrate similar responses to lake pH and mercury (Hg) contamination in northern Wisconsin as do common loons ( Gavia immer ). Similar to common loons, Hg concentrations in the blood of tree swallow nestlings were higher, Hg concentrations in eggs tended to be higher, and egg size tended to be smaller at low (<6.2) pH lakes. In contrast to common loons, tree swallow nestling production was not lower at low pH lakes. Based on modeling associations, Hg concentrations in tree swallow eggs and nestling blood can be used to predict Hg concentrations in common loons without the invasive or destructive sampling of loons. Mean concentrations of cadmium, manganese, and mercury in nestling livers were higher at low pH lakes than neutral pH lakes. Concentrations of cadmium, chromium, mercury, selenium, and zinc were not at toxic levels.

Wisconsin↗