Geology topics

Research about Souris River Basin

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Souris River Basin.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin regulated streamflow upstream from Minot, North Dakota

The Souris River Basin is a 24,000 square-mile basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada, and the State of North Dakota in the United States. Above-average snowpack during the winter of 2010–11, along with record-setting rains in May and June of 2011, led to record flooding that caused extensive damage to Minot, North Dakota, and numerous smaller communities in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and North Dakota. As a result, the International Souris River Board created the Souris River Flood Task Force to evaluate potential reservoir operation changes and flood control measures to manage future floods and droughts. Part of this evaluation involved identifying a need for a stochastic streamflow model to estimate the likelihood of future flooding or drought. A stochastic natural (unregulated) streamflow simulation model described in a previous report was built upon in this report to include the effects of regulation of four reservoirs (Rafferty, Alameda, and Boundary Reservoirs and Lake Darling) and their operation guidelines. First, a regulated reservoir storage/streamflow routing model was developed and calibrated from when all four reservoirs were in operation until the end of the reconstructed natural streamflow dataset provided by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (1992–2011). The regulated reservoir storage/streamflow routing model then was combined with the stochastic natural (unregulated) streamflow model to provide a stochastic regulated streamflow simulation model for the Souris River Basin upstream from Minot, North Dakota. The stochastic regulated streamflow simulation model was used to estimate regulated flood frequency curves, which are useful for feasibility and design of critical structures such as levees or bridges. Three potential future climatic conditions were considered in this analysis: condition A (wet equilibrium), representing wet (similar to 1970–2017) climatic conditions; condition B (transition), representing transition from wet to dry (similar to 1912–69) climatic conditions; and condition C (dry equilibrium), representing dry climatic conditions. Comparison of the estimated flood frequency curves for regulated flow among the three climatic conditions indicated large differences in flood magnitudes for the more extreme (1-percent or less) annual exceedance probabilities. The estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood magnitude for the Souris River upstream from Minot, N. Dak., was 29,300 cubic feet per second for condition A (wet equilibrium), compared to 14,800 cubic feet per second for condition C (dry equilibrium). For comparison, the recorded peak streamflow for 2011 for the Souris River upstream from Minot, N. Dak., was 26,900 cubic feet per second. Although it is not possible to predict how long the current (1970–2017) wet climatic conditions may persist, flood risk for at least the next 25 years, or until about 2040, may be represented best by climatic condition A.

North Dakota↗

USGS2016

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the State of North Dakota. In May and June of 2011, record-setting rains were seen in the headwater areas of the basin. Emergency spillways of major reservoirs were discharging at full or nearly full capacity, and extensive flooding was seen in numerous downstream communities. To determine the probability of future extreme floods and droughts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, developed a stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural (unregulated) streamflow. Simulations from the model can be used in future studies to simulate regulated streamflow, design levees, and other structures; and to complete economic cost/benefit analyses. Long-term climatic variability was analyzed using tree-ring chronologies to hindcast precipitation to the early 1700s and compare recent wet and dry conditions to earlier extreme conditions. The extended precipitation record was consistent with findings from the Devils Lake and Red River of the North Basins (southeast of the Souris River Basin), supporting the idea that regional climatic patterns for many centuries have consisted of alternating wet and dry climate states. A stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration for the Souris River Basin was developed using recorded meteorological data and extended precipitation records provided through tree-ring analysis. A significant climate transition was seen around1970, with 1912–69 representing a dry climate state and 1970–2011 representing a wet climate state. Although there were some distinct subpatterns within the basin, the predominant differences between the two states were higher spring through early fall precipitation and higher spring potential evapotranspiration for the wet compared to the dry state. A water-balance model was developed for simulating monthly natural (unregulated) mean streamflow based on precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration at select streamflow-gaging stations. The model was calibrated using streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada, along with natural (unregulated) streamflow data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Correlation coefficients between simulated and natural (unregulated) flows generally were high (greater than 0.8), and the seasonal means and standard deviations of the simulated flows closely matched the means and standard deviations of the natural (unregulated) flows. After calibrating the model for a monthly time step, monthly streamflow for each subbasin was disaggregated into three values per month, or an approximately 10-day time step, and a separate routing model was developed for simulating 10-day streamflow for downstream gages. The stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration was combined with the water-balance model to simulate potential future sequences of 10-day mean streamflow for each of the streamflow-gaging station locations. Flood risk, as determined by equilibrium flow-frequency distributions for the dry (1912–69) and wet (1970–2011) climate states, was considerably higher for the wet state compared to the dry state. Future flood risk will remain high until the wet climate state ends, and for several years after that, because there may be a long lag-time between the return of drier conditions and the onset of a lower soil-moisture storage equilibrium.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2014

Assessment of sediments in the riverine impoundments of national wildlife refuges in the Souris River Basin, North Dakota

Accelerated sedimentation of reservoirs and riverine impoundments is a major concern throughout the United States. Sediments not only fill impoundments and reduce their effective life span, but they can reduce water quality by increasing turbidity and introducing harmful chemical constituents such as heavy metals, toxic elements, and nutrients. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service national wildlife refuges in the north-central part of the United States have documented high amounts of sediment accretion in some wetlands that could negatively affect important aquatic habitats for migratory birds and other wetland-dependent wildlife. Therefore, information pertaining to sediment accumulation in refuge impoundments potentially is important to guide conservation planning, including future management actions of individual impoundments. Lands comprising Des Lacs, Upper Souris, and J. Clark Salyer National Wildlife Refuges, collectively known as the Souris River Basin refuges, encompass reaches of the Des Lacs and Souris Rivers of northwestern North Dakota. The riverine impoundments of the Souris River Basin refuges are vulnerable to sedimentation because of the construction of in-stream dams that interrupt and slow river flows and because of post-European settlement land-use changes that have increased the potential for soil erosion and transport to rivers. Information regarding sediments does not exist for these refuges, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service personnel have expressed interest in assessing refuge impoundments to support refuge management decisions. Sediment cores and surface sediment samples were collected from impoundments within Des Lacs, Upper Souris, and J. Clark Salyer National Wildlife Refuges during 2004–05. Cores were used to estimate sediment accretion rates using radioisotope (cesium-137 [ 137 Cs], lead-210 [ 210 Pb]) dating techniques. Sediment cores and surface samples were analyzed for a suite of elements and agrichemicals, respectively. Examination of core characteristics along the depth profile suggests that there has been regular sediment mixing and removal, as well as non-uniform sediment deposition with time. Estimated mean accretion rates based on the three methods of determination (two time markers for 137 Cs, 210 Pb) ranged from 0.22–0.35 centimeters per year, and approximately 70 percent of cores had less 137 Cs than expected. Concentrations of sediment-associated elements generally were within reported reference ranges, and all agrichemicals analyzed were below detection limits. Results suggest that there does not appear to be widespread sediment accumulation in impoundments of the Souris River Basin refuges. In addition, there were no identifiable patterns among sedimentation rates from the upstream (Des Lacs, Upper Souris) to the downstream (J. Clark Salyer) refuges. There were, however, apparent upstream to downstream patterns of increased concentrations of some elements (for example, aluminum, boron, and vanadium) that may warrant further exploration. Future related monitoring and research efforts should focus on areas with high potential for sediment accumulation, such as upstream areas adjacent to dams, to identify potential sediment problems before they become too severe. Further, assessments of suspended sediments transported in the Des Lacs and Souris Rivers would augment interpretation of sedimentation data by identifying potential sediment sources and areas with the greatest potential for accumulation.

North Dakota↗