Geology topics

Research about Montana

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Montana.

At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources

USGS2016

Geology and mineral resources of the North-Central Montana Sagebrush Focal Area: Chapter D in Mineral resources of the Sagebrush Focal Areas of Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming

Summary The U.S. Department of the Interior has proposed to withdraw approximately 10 million acres of Federal lands from mineral entry (subject to valid existing rights) from 12 million acres of lands defined as Sagebrush Focal Areas (SFAs) in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming (for further discussion on the lands involved see Scientific Investigations Report 2016–5089–A). The purpose of the proposed action is to protect the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) and its habitat from potential adverse effects of locatable mineral exploration and mining. The U.S. Geological Survey Sagebrush Mineral-Resource Assessment (SaMiRA) project was initiated in November 2015 and supported by the Bureau of Land Management to (1) assess locatable mineral-resource potential and (2) to describe leasable and salable mineral resources for the seven SFAs and Nevada additions. This chapter summarizes the current status of locatable, leasable, and salable mineral commodities and assesses the potential of locatable minerals in the North-Central Montana SFA. The proposed withdrawal area that is evaluated in this report is located in north-central Montana, and includes parts of Fergus, Petroleum, Phillips, and Valley Counties.

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USGS2016

Water-quality trends and constituent-transport analysis for selected sampling sites in the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site in the upper Clark Fork Basin, Montana, water years 1996–2015

During the extended history of mining in the upper Clark Fork Basin in Montana, large amounts of waste materials enriched with metallic contaminants (cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc) and the metalloid trace element arsenic were generated from mining operations near Butte and milling and smelting operations near Anaconda. Extensive deposition of mining wastes in the Silver Bow Creek and Clark Fork channels and flood plains had substantial effects on water quality. Federal Superfund remediation activities in the upper Clark Fork Basin began in 1983 and have included substantial remediation near Butte and removal of the former Milltown Dam near Missoula. To aid in evaluating the effects of remediation activities on water quality, the U.S. Geological Survey began collecting streamflow and water-quality data in the upper Clark Fork Basin in the 1980s. Trend analysis was done on specific conductance, selected trace elements (arsenic, copper, and zinc), and suspended sediment for seven sampling sites in the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site for water years 1996–2015. The most upstream site included in trend analysis is Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs, Montana (sampling site 8), and the most downstream site is Clark Fork above Missoula, Montana (sampling site 22), which is just downstream from the former Milltown Dam. Water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends. Trend analysis was done by using a joint time-series model for concentration and streamflow. To provide temporal resolution of changes in water quality, trend analysis was conducted for four sequential 5-year periods: period 1 (water years 1996–2000), period 2 (water years 2001–5), period 3 (water years 2006–10), and period 4 (water years 2011–15). Because of the substantial effect of the intentional breach of Milltown Dam on March 28, 2008, period 3 was subdivided into period 3A (October 1, 2005–March 27, 2008) and period 3B (March 28, 2008–September 30, 2010) for the Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22). Trend results were considered statistically significant when the statistical probability level was less than 0.01. In conjunction with the trend analysis, estimated normalized constituent loads (hereinafter referred to as “loads”) were calculated and presented within the framework of a constituent-transport analysis to assess the temporal trends in flow-adjusted concentrations (FACs) in the context of sources and transport. The transport analysis allows assessment of temporal changes in relative contributions from upstream source areas to loads transported past each reach outflow. Trend results indicate that FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper decreased at the sampling sites from the start of period 1 through the end of period 4; the decreases ranged from large for one sampling site (Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs [sampling site 8]) to moderate for two sampling sites (Clark Fork near Galen, Montana [sampling site 11] and Clark Fork above Missoula [sampling site 22]) to small for four sampling sites (Clark Fork at Deer Lodge, Montana [sampling site 14], Clark Fork at Goldcreek, Montana [sampling site 16], Clark Fork near Drummond, Montana [sampling site 18], and Clark Fork at Turah Bridge near Bonner, Montana [sampling site 20]). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the most notable changes indicated for the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site were statistically significant decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper for sampling sites 8 and 22. The period 4 changes in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper for all other sampling sites were not statistically significant. Trend results indicate that FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic decreased at the sampling sites from period 1 through period 4 (water years 1996–2015); the decreases ranged from minor (sampling sites 8–20) to small (sampling site 22). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the most notable changes indicated for the Milltown Reservoir/Clark Fork River Superfund Site were statistically significant decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic for sampling site 8 and near statistically significant decreases for sampling site 22. The period 4 changes in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic for all other sampling sites were not statistically significant. Trend results indicate that FACs of suspended sediment decreased at the sampling sites from period 1 through period 4 (water years 1996–2015); the decreases ranged from moderate (sampling site 8) to small (sampling sites 11–22). For period 4 (water years 2011–15), the changes in FACs of suspended sediment were not statistically significant for any sampling sites. The reach of the Clark Fork from Galen to Deer Lodge is a large source of metallic contaminants and suspended sediment, which strongly affects downstream transport of those constituents. Mobilization of copper and suspended sediment from flood-plain tailings and the streambed of the Clark Fork and its tributaries within the reach results in a contribution of those constituents that is proportionally much larger than the contribution of streamflow from within the reach. Within the reach from Galen to Deer Lodge, unfiltered-recoverable copper loads increased by a factor of about 4 and suspended-sediment loads increased by a factor of about 5, whereas streamflow increased by a factor of slightly less than 2. For period 4 (water years 2011–15), unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended-sediment loads sourced from within the reach accounted for about 41 and 14 percent, respectively, of the loads at Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22), whereas streamflow sourced from within the reach accounted for about 4 percent of the streamflow at sampling site 22. During water years 1996–2015, decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended sediment for the reach generally were proportionally smaller than for most other reaches. Unfiltered-recoverable copper loads sourced within the reaches of the Clark Fork between Deer Lodge and Turah Bridge near Bonner (just upstream from the former Milltown Dam) were proportionally smaller than contributions of streamflow sourced from within the reaches; these reaches contributed proportionally much less to copper loading in the Clark Fork than the reach between Galen and Deer Lodge. Although substantial decreases in FACs and loads of unfiltered-recoverable copper and suspended sediment were indicated for Silver Bow Creek at Warm Springs (sampling site 8), those substantial decreases were not translated to downstream reaches between Deer Lodge and Turah Bridge near Bonner. The effect of the reach of the Clark Fork from Galen to Deer Lodge as a large source of copper and suspended sediment, in combination with little temporal change in those constituents for the reach, contributes to this pattern. With the removal of the former Milltown Dam in 2008, substantial amounts of contaminated sediments that remained in the Clark Fork channel and flood plain in reach 9 (downstream from Turah Bridge near Bonner) became more available for mobilization and transport than before the dam removal. After the removal of the former Milltown Dam, the Clark Fork above Missoula (sampling site 22) had statistically significant decreases in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper in period 3B (March 28, 2008, through water year 2010) that continued in period 4 (water years 2011–15). Also, decreases in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable arsenic and suspended sediment were indicated for period 4 at this site. The decrease in FACs of unfiltered-recoverable copper for sampling site 22 during period 4 was proportionally much larger than the decrease for the Clark Fork at Turah Bridge near Bonner (sampling site 20). Net mobilization of unfiltered-recoverable copper and arsenic from sources within reach 9 are smaller for period 4 than for period 1 when the former Milltown Dam was in place, providing evidence that contaminant source materials have been substantially reduced in reach 9.

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USGS2016

Comparative use of side and main channels by small-bodied fish in a large, unimpounded river

Ecological theory and field studies suggest that lateral floodplain connectivity and habitat heterogeneity provided by side channels impart favourable habitat conditions for lotic fishes, especially fluvial fishes dependent on large patches of shallow, slow velocity habitats for some portion of their life cycle. However, anthropogenic modification of large, temperate floodplain rivers has led to extensive channel simplification and side-channel loss. Highly modified rivers consist of simplified channels in contracted, less dynamic floodplains. Most research examining the seasonal importance of side channels for fish assemblages in large rivers has been carried out in heavily modified rivers, where side-channel extents are substantially reduced from pre-settlement times, and has often overlooked small-bodied fishes. Inferences about the ecological importance of side channels for small-bodied fishes in large rivers can be ascertained only from investigations of large rivers with largely intact floodplains. The Yellowstone River, our study area, is a rare example of one such river. We targeted small-bodied fishes and compared their habitat use in side and main channels in two geomorphically distinct types of river bends during early and late snowmelt runoff, and autumn base flow. Species compositions of side and main channels differed throughout hydroperiods concurrent with the seasonal redistribution of the availability of shallow, slow current-velocity habitats. More species of fish used side channels than main channels during runoff. Additionally, catch rates of small fishes were generally greater in side channels than in main channels and quantitative assemblage compositions differed between channel types during runoff, but not during base flow. Presence of and access to diverse habitats facilitated the development and persistence of diverse fish assemblages in our study area. Physical dissimilarities between side and main channels may have differentially structured the side- and main-channel fish assemblages during runoff. Patches of shallow, slow current-velocity (SSCV) habitats in side channels were larger and had slightly slower water velocities than SSCV habitat patches in main channels during runoff, but not during base flow. Our findings establish a baseline importance of side channels to riverine fishes in a large, temperate river without heavy anthropogenic modification. Establishing this baseline contributes to basic fluvial ecology and provides empirical justification for restoration efforts that reconnect large rivers with their floodplains.

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USGS2016

Genetic reconstruction of a bullfrog invasion to elucidate vectors of introduction and secondary spread

Reconstructing historical colonization pathways of an invasive species is critical for uncovering factors that determine invasion success and for designing management strategies. The American bullfrog ( Lithobates catesbeianus ) is endemic to eastern North America, but now has a global distribution and is considered to be one of the worst invaders in the world. In Montana, several introduced populations have been reported, but little is known of their sources and vectors of introduction and secondary spread. We evaluated the genetic composition of introduced populations at local (Yellowstone River floodplain) and regional (Montana and Wyoming) scales in contrast to native range populations. Our objectives were to (1) estimate the number of introductions, (2) identify probable native sources, (3) evaluate genetic variation relative to sources, and (4) characterize properties of local- and regional-scale spread. We sequenced 937 bp of the mitochondrial cytochrome b locus in 395 tadpoles collected along 100 km of the Yellowstone River, from three additional sites in MT and a proximate site in WY. Pairwise Φ ST revealed high divergence among nonnative populations, suggesting at least four independent introductions into MT from diverse sources. Three cyt b haplotypes were identical to native haplotypes distributed across the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and AMOVA confirmed the western native region as a likely source. While haplotype ( H d = 0.69) and nucleotide diversity ( π = 0.005) were low in introduced bullfrogs, the levels of diversity did not differ significantly from source populations. In the Yellowstone, two identified haplotypes implied few introduction vectors and a significant relationship between genetic and river distance was found. Evidence for multiple invasions and lack of subsequent regional spread emphasizes the importance of enforcing legislation prohibiting bullfrog importation and the need for continuing public education to prevent transport of bullfrogs in MT. More broadly, this study demonstrates how genetic approaches can reveal key properties of a biological invasion to inform management strategies.

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USGS2016

Loss of genetic diversity and increased subdivision in an endemic Alpine Stonefly threatened by climate change

Much remains unknown about the genetic status and population connectivity of high-elevation and high-latitude freshwater invertebrates, which often persist near snow and ice masses that are disappearing due to climate change. Here we report on the conservation genetics of the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana (Ricker) of Montana, USA, a cold-water obligate species. We sequenced 1530 bp of mtDNA from 116 L. tumana individuals representing “historic” (>10 yr old) and 2010 populations. The dominant haplotype was common in both time periods, while the second-most-common haplotype was found only in historic samples, having been lost in the interim. The 2010 populations also showed reduced gene and nucleotide diversity and increased genetic isolation. We found lower genetic diversity in L. tumana compared to two other North American stonefly species, Amphinemura linda (Ricker) and Pteronarcys californica Newport. Our results imply small effective sizes, increased fragmentation, limited gene flow, and loss of genetic variation among contemporary L. tumana populations, which can lead to reduced adaptive capacity and increased extinction risk. This study reinforces concerns that ongoing glacier loss threatens the persistence of L. tumana, and provides baseline data and analysis of how future environmental change could impact populations of similar organisms.

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USGS2016

Larval long-toed salamanders incur nonconsumptive effects in the presence of nonnative trout

Predators can influence prey directly through consumption or indirectly through nonconsumptive effects (NCEs) by altering prey behavior, morphology, and life history. We investigated whether predator-avoidance behaviors by larval long-toed salamanders ( Ambystoma macrodactylum ) in lakes with nonnative trout result in NCEs on morphology and development. Field studies in lakes with and without trout were corroborated by experimental enclosures, where prey were exposed only to visual and chemical cues of predators. We found that salamanders in lakes with trout were consistently smaller than in lakes without trout: 38% lower weight, 24% shorter body length, and 29% shorter tail length. Similarly, salamanders in protective enclosures grew 2.9 times slower when exposed to visual and olfactory trout cues than when no trout cues were present. Salamanders in trout-free lakes and enclosures were 22.7 times and 1.48 times, respectively, more likely to metamorphose during the summer season than those exposed to trout in lakes and/or their cues. Observed changes in larval growth rate and development likely resulted from a facultative response to predator-avoidance behavior and demonstrate NCEs occurred even when predation risk was only perceived. Reduced body size and growth, as well as delayed metamorphosis, could have ecological consequences for salamander populations existing with fish if those effects carry-over into lower recruitment, survival, and fecundity.

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USGS2016

Montana StreamStats

About this volume Montana StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system ( http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/ ) application that provides users with access to basin and streamflow characteristics for gaged and ungaged streams in Montana. Montana StreamStats was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Montana Departments of Transportation, Environmental Quality, and Natural Resources and Conservation. The USGS Scientific Investigations Report consists of seven independent but complementary chapters dealing with various aspects of this effort. Chapter A describes the Montana StreamStats application, the basin and streamflow datasets, and provides a brief overview of the streamflow characteristics and regression equations used in the study. Chapters B through E document the datasets, methods, and results of analyses to determine streamflow characteristics, such as peak-flow frequencies, low-flow frequencies, and monthly and annual characteristics, for USGS streamflow-gaging stations in and near Montana. The StreamStats analytical toolsets that allow users to delineate drainage basins and solve regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites in Montana are described in Chapters F and G.

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USGS2016

Montana StreamStats—A method for retrieving basin and streamflow characteristics in Montana: Chapter A in Montana StreamStats

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides streamflow characteristics and other related information needed by water-resource managers to protect people and property from floods, plan and manage water-resource activities, and protect water quality. Streamflow characteristics provided by the USGS, such as peak-flow and low-flow frequencies for streamflow-gaging stations, are frequently used by engineers, flood forecasters, land managers, biologists, and others to guide their everyday decisions. In addition to providing streamflow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations, the USGS also develops regional regression equations and drainage area-adjustment methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at locations on ungaged streams. Regional regression equations can be complex and often require users to determine several basin characteristics, which are physical and climatic characteristics of the stream and its drainage basin. Obtaining these basin characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations and ungaged sites traditionally has been time consuming and subjective, and led to inconsistent results. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow and basin characteristics for USGS streamflow-gaging stations and user-selected locations on ungaged streams. The USGS, in cooperation with Montana Department of Transportation, Montana Department of Environmental Quality, and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to develop a StreamStats application for Montana, compute streamflow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations, and develop regional regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites. Chapter A of this Scientific Investigations Report describes the Montana StreamStats application and the datasets, streamflow-gaging stations, streamflow characteristics, and regression equations (as described fully in Chapters B through G of this report) that are used for development of the StreamStats application for Montana.

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USGS2016

Temporal trends and stationarity in annual peak flow and peak-flow timing for selected long-term streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana through water year 2011: Chapter B in Montana StreamStats

A large-scale study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, was done to investigate general patterns in peak-flow temporal trends and stationarity through water year 2011 for 24 long-term streamflow-gaging stations (hereinafter referred to as gaging stations) in Montana. Hereinafter, all years refer to water years; a water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends. The primary focus of the study was to identify general patterns in peak-flow temporal trends and stationarity that are relevant to application of peak-flow frequency analyses within a statewide gaging-station network. Temporal trends were analyzed for two hydrologic variables: annual peak flow and peak-flow timing. Annual peak flow is the maximum instantaneous discharge, in cubic feet per second, recorded each year a gaging station was operated. Peak-flow timing is the day of the annual peak flow (hereinafter referred to as day of peak), recorded each year a gaging station was operated. Study results provide evidence that annual peak flow for most of the long-term gaging stations can be reasonably considered as stationary for application of peak-flow frequency analyses within a statewide gaging station network. Upward trends in annual peak flow during 1930–76 generally were stronger than downward trends during 1967–2011 for most long-term gaging stations. Statistical distributions of annual peak flow generally were similar among three summary time periods (1930–78, 1979–2011, and the entire period of record). However, for two low-elevation gaging stations in eastern Montana (Poplar River at international boundary [gaging station 06178000] and Powder River at Moorhead, Montana [gaging station 06324500]), substantial downward trends in annual peak flow during 1967–2011 were of similar or stronger magnitude than the upward trends during 1930–76, and the annual-peak-flow medians for 1979–2011 were substantially lower than the medians for the entire period of record. For peak-flow timing for most long-term gaging stations, differences in trends between 1930–76 and 1967–2011 are variable and not particularly strong. Statistical distributions generally are similar among the summary time periods. However, for two high-elevation gaging stations on a Missouri River headwater tributary (Gallatin River near Gallatin Gateway, Montana [gaging station 06043500] and Gallatin River at Logan, Montana [gaging station 06052500]) and for five high-elevation gaging stations in the Yellowstone River Basin (Yellowstone River at Corwin Springs, Montana [gaging station 06191500], Yellowstone River near Livingston, Montana [gaging station 06192500], Clarks Fork Yellowstone River near Belfry, Montana [gaging station 06207500], Clarks Fork Yellowstone River at Edgar, Montana [gaging station 06208500], and Yellowstone River at Billings, Montana [gaging station 06214500]) downward trends in peak-flow timing during 1967–2011 generally were stronger than upward trends during 1930–1976, and day-of-peak medians for 1979–2011 were considerably less than medians for 1930–78. The downward trends in peak-flow timing for 1967–2011 indicate that the timing of annual peak flows changed from later in the year to earlier in the year. For the seven high-elevation gaging stations, the mean change during 1967–2011 was about 13 days (range of 8 to 22 days). For most of the high-elevation gaging stations in the Missouri River headwaters, Yellowstone River Basin, and Columbia River Basin, there was general correspondence between trend patterns for annual peak flow and trend patterns for peak-flow timing; that is, during periods when there were upward trends in annual peak flow, there generally also were upward trends in peak-flow timing. Conversely, during periods when there were downward trends in annual peak flow, there generally also were downward trends in peak-flow timing. The two low-elevation gaging stations in eastern Montana (Poplar River at international boundary [gaging station 06178000] and Powder River at Moorhead, Montana [gaging station 06324500]) had considerable changes in annual-peakflow characteristics after the mid-1970s, which might provide evidence of potential nonstationarity in the peak-flow records. The two low-elevation gaging stations that have potential nonstationarity are located in drainage basins that are strongly affected by agricultural activities that potentially affect the hydrologic regimes. Primary agricultural activities that might alter natural hydrologic conditions include construction of small impoundments (primarily for stock-watering purposes) and irrigation diversions. Temporal variability in these activities might contribute to the potential nonstationarity issues. Changes in climatic characteristics after the mid-1970s also possibly contribute to the potential nonstationarity issues. Lack of considerable indication of potential nonstationarity in annual peak flow for the other long-term gaging stations in this study might indicate that climatic changes have been more pronounced with respect to effects on peak flows in low elevation areas in eastern Montana than in areas represented by the other long-term gaging stations. Another possibility is that climatic changes after the mid-1970s are exacerbated in low-elevation areas where small-impoundment development and potential effects of irrigation diversions might be more extensive.

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USGS2016

Peak-flow frequency analyses and results based on data through water year 2011 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter C in Montana StreamStats

Chapter C of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources, to provide an update of statewide peak-flow frequency analyses and results for Montana. The purpose of this report chapter is to present peak-flow frequency analyses and results for 725 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. The 725 streamflow-gaging stations included in this study represent nearly all streamflowgaging stations in Montana (plus some from adjacent states or Canadian Provinces) that have at least 10 years of peak-flow records through water year 2011. For 29 of the 725 streamflow-gaging stations, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for both unregulated and regulated conditions. Thus, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for a total of 754 analyses. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals.

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USGS2016

Adjusted peak-flow frequency estimates for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter D in Montana StreamStats

The climatic conditions of the specific time period during which peak-flow data were collected at a given streamflow-gaging station (hereinafter referred to as gaging station) can substantially affect how well the peak-flow frequency (hereinafter referred to as frequency) results represent long-term hydrologic conditions. Differences in the timing of the periods of record can result in substantial inconsistencies in frequency estimates for hydrologically similar gaging stations. Potential for inconsistency increases with decreasing peak-flow record length. The representativeness of the frequency estimates for a short-term gaging station can be adjusted by various methods including weighting the at-site results in association with frequency estimates from regional regression equations (RREs) by using the Weighted Independent Estimates (WIE) program. Also, for gaging stations that cannot be adjusted by using the WIE program because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs, frequency estimates might be improved by using record extension procedures, including a mixed-station analysis using the maintenance of variance type I (MOVE.1) procedure. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to provide adjusted frequency estimates for selected gaging stations through water year 2011. The purpose of Chapter D of this Scientific Investigations Report is to present adjusted frequency estimates for 504 selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for the 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to the 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. The at-site frequency estimates were adjusted by weighting with frequency estimates from RREs using the WIE program for 438 selected gaging stations in Montana. These 438 selected gaging stations (1) had periods of record less than or equal to 40 years, (2) represented unregulated or minor regulation conditions, and (3) had drainage areas less than about 2,750 square miles. The weighted-average frequency estimates obtained by weighting with RREs generally are considered to provide improved frequency estimates. In some cases, there are substantial differences among the at-site frequency estimates, the regression-equation frequency estimates, and the weighted-average frequency estimates. In these cases, thoughtful consideration should be applied when selecting the appropriate frequency estimate. Some factors that might be considered when selecting the appropriate frequency estimate include (1) whether the specific gaging station has peak-flow characteristics that distinguish it from most other gaging stations used in developing the RREs for the hydrologic region; and (2) the length of the peak-flow record and the general climatic characteristics during the period when the peak-flow data were collected. For critical structure-design applications, a conservative approach would be to select the higher of the at-site frequency estimate and the weighted-average frequency estimate. The mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure generally was applied in cases where three or more gaging stations were located on the same large river and some of the gaging stations could not be adjusted using the weighted-average method because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs. The mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure was applied to 66 selected gaging stations on 19 large rivers. The general approach for using mixed-station record extension procedures to adjust at-site frequencies involved (1) determining appropriate base periods for the gaging stations on the large rivers, (2) synthesizing peak-flow data for the gaging stations with incomplete peak-flow records during the base periods by using the mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure, and (3) conducting frequency analysis on the combined recorded and synthesized peak-flow data for each gaging station. Frequency estimates for the combined recorded and synthesized datasets for 66 gaging stations with incomplete peak-flow records during the base periods are presented. The uncertainties in the mixed-station record extension results are difficult to directly quantify; thus, it is important to understand the intended use of the estimated frequencies based on analysis of the combined recorded and synthesized datasets. The estimated frequencies are considered general estimates of frequency relations among gaging stations on the same stream channel that might be expected if the gaging stations had been gaged during the same long-term base period. However, because the mixed-station record extension procedures involve secondary statistical analysis with accompanying errors, the uncertainty of the frequency estimates is larger than would be obtained by collecting systematic records for the same number of years in the base period.

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USGS2016

Streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter E in Montana StreamStats

Chapter E of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, to provide an update of statewide streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana. Streamflow characteristics are presented for 408 streamflow-gaging stations in Montana and adjacent areas having 10 or more years of record. Data include the magnitude and probability of annual low and high streamflow, the magnitude and probability of low streamflow for three seasons (March–June, July–October, and November–February), streamflow duration statistics for monthly and annual periods, and mean streamflows for monthly and annual periods. Streamflow is considered to be regulated at streamflow-gaging stations where dams or other large-scale human modifications affect 20 percent or more of the contributing drainage basin. Separate streamflow characteristics are presented for the unregulated and regulated periods of record for streamflow-gaging stations with sufficient data.

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USGS2016

Methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter F in Montana StreamStats

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to update methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on peak-flow data at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2011. The methods allow estimation of peak-flow frequencies (that is, peak-flow magnitudes, in cubic feet per second, associated with annual exceedance probabilities of 66.7, 50, 42.9, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent) at ungaged sites. The annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Regional regression analysis is a primary focus of Chapter F of this Scientific Investigations Report, and regression equations for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented. The regression equations are based on analysis of peak-flow frequencies and basin characteristics at 537 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana and were developed using generalized least squares regression or weighted least squares regression. All of the data used in calculating basin characteristics that were included as explanatory variables in the regression equations were developed for and are available through the USGS StreamStats application (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) for Montana. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. The primary purpose of the Montana StreamStats application is to provide estimates of basin characteristics and streamflow characteristics for user-selected ungaged sites on Montana streams. The regional regression equations presented in this report chapter can be conveniently solved using the Montana StreamStats application. Selected results from this study were compared with results of previous studies. For most hydrologic regions, the regression equations reported for this study had lower mean standard errors of prediction (in percent) than the previously reported regression equations for Montana. The equations presented for this study are considered to be an improvement on the previously reported equations primarily because this study (1) included 13 more years of peak-flow data; (2) included 35 more streamflow-gaging stations than previous studies; (3) used a detailed geographic information system (GIS)-based definition of the regulation status of streamflow-gaging stations, which allowed better determination of the unregulated peak-flow records that are appropriate for use in the regional regression analysis; (4) included advancements in GIS and remote-sensing technologies, which allowed more convenient calculation of basin characteristics and investigation of many more candidate basin characteristics; and (5) included advancements in computational and analytical methods, which allowed more thorough and consistent data analysis. This report chapter also presents other methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites. Two methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites located on the same streams as streamflow-gaging stations are described. Additionally, envelope curves relating maximum recorded annual peak flows to contributing drainage area for each of the eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented and compared to a national envelope curve. In addition to providing general information on characteristics of large peak flows, the regional envelope curves can be used to assess the reasonableness of peak-flow frequency estimates determined using the regression equations.

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USGS2016

Methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites in western Montana based on data through water year 2009: Chapter G in Montana StreamStats

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, developed regional regression equations based on basin and streamflow characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2009 that can be used to estimate streamflow characteristics for ungaged sites in western Montana. The regression equations allow estimation of low-flow frequencies; mean annual and mean monthly streamflows; and the 20-, 50-, and 80-percent durations for annual and monthly duration streamflows for ungaged sites in western Montana that are unaffected by regulation. Regression equations were developed for 54 streamflow characteristics in each of the 4 hydrologic regions generally located in western Montana. Exploratory data analyses determined that of the 40 basin characteristics used as explanatory variables, only 3 were significant in the final equations. These three basin characteristics are contributing drainage area, mean annual precipitation of the drainage basin, and percentage of basin with slopes greater than 50 percent. Low-flow frequency data and daily mean streamflow data from 152 streamflow-gaging stations were used to develop the regression equations. These 152 streamflow-gaging stations were considered to be unregulated (or only the unregulated period of record for regulated streamflow-gaging stations were used). For this study, a streamflow-gaging station is considered to be unregulated if cumulative drainage area upstream from all upstream dams is less than 20 percent of the drainage basin for the streamflow-gaging station, and if no large diversion canals are upstream from the streamflow-gaging station. In addition to the regional regression equations, two methods for estimating streamflow characteristics based on drainage areas of a nearby streamflow-gaging station are provided. Also, spreadsheet tools are provided for calculating streamflow characteristics based on regression equations or the drainage-area ratio method. All of the data used to calculate basin characteristics were derived from publicly available data sources and are available through the U.S. Geological Survey Streamstats program ( http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/ ) for Montana. The primary purpose of the Montana StreamStats application is to provide estimates of basin characteristics and streamflow characteristics for user-selected ungaged sites on Montana streams. The regional regression equations presented in this report have been loaded to the Montana StreamStats application and can be used to derive streamflow characteristics for ungaged sites.

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USGS2016

Lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) suppression for bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) recovery in Flathead Lake, Montana, North America

Non-native lake trout Salvelinus namaycush displaced native bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in Flathead Lake, Montana, USA, after 1984, when Mysis diluviana became abundant following its introduction in upstream lakes in 1968–1976. We developed a simulation model to determine the fishing mortality rate on lake trout that would enable bull trout recovery. Model simulations indicated that suppression of adult lake trout by 75% from current abundance would reduce predation on bull trout by 90%. Current removals of lake trout through incentivized fishing contests has not been sufficient to suppress lake trout abundance estimated by mark-recapture or indexed by stratified-random gill netting. In contrast, size structure, body condition, mortality, and maturity are changing consistent with a density-dependent reduction in lake trout abundance. Population modeling indicated total fishing effort would need to increase 3-fold to reduce adult lake trout population density by 75%. We conclude that increased fishing effort would suppress lake trout population density and predation on juvenile bull trout, and thereby enable higher abundance of adult bull trout in Flathead Lake and its tributaries.

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USGS2016

Understanding environmental DNA detection probabilities: A case study using a stream-dwelling char Salvelinus fontinalis

Environmental DNA sampling (eDNA) has emerged as a powerful tool for detecting aquatic animals. Previous research suggests that eDNA methods are substantially more sensitive than traditional sampling. However, the factors influencing eDNA detection and the resulting sampling costs are still not well understood. Here we use multiple experiments to derive independent estimates of eDNA production rates and downstream persistence from brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) in streams. We use these estimates to parameterize models comparing the false negative detection rates of eDNA sampling and traditional backpack electrofishing. We find that using the protocols in this study eDNA had reasonable detection probabilities at extremely low animal densities (e.g., probability of detection 0.18 at densities of one fish per stream kilometer) and very high detection probabilities at population-level densities (e.g., probability of detection > 0.99 at densities of ≥ 3 fish per 100 m). This is substantially more sensitive than traditional electrofishing for determining the presence of brook trout and may translate into important cost savings when animals are rare. Our findings are consistent with a growing body of literature showing that eDNA sampling is a powerful tool for the detection of aquatic species, particularly those that are rare and difficult to sample using traditional methods.

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USGS2016

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana

Study region Eastern and central Montana. Study focus Fish in Northern Great Plains streams tolerate extreme conditions including heat, cold, floods, and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate model were used to simulate streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana, for a baseline period (water years 1982–1999) and three future periods: water years 2021–2038 (2030 period), 2046–2063 (2055 period), and 2071–2088 (2080 period). New hydrological insights for the region Projected changes in mean annual and mean monthly streamflow vary by the RegCM3 model selected, by watershed, and by future period. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to increase (11–21%) for two of the four central Montana watersheds: Middle Musselshell River and Cottonwood Creek. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to decrease (changes of −24 to −75%) for Redwater River watershed in eastern Montana. Mean annual streamflows are projected to increase slightly (2–15%) for the 2030 period and decrease (changes of −16 to −44%) for the 2080 period for the four remaining watersheds.

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USGS2016

Chemical and isotopic changes in Williston Basin brines during long-term oil production: An example from the Poplar dome, Montana

Brine samples were collected from 30 conventional oil wells producing mostly from the Charles Formation of the Madison Group in the East and Northwest Poplar oil fields on the Fort Peck Indian Reservation, Montana. Dissolved concentrations of major ions, trace metals, Sr isotopes, and stable isotopes (oxygen and hydrogen) were analyzed to compare with a brine contaminant that affected groundwater northeast of the town of Poplar. Two groups of brine compositions, designated group I and group II, are identified on the basis of chemistry and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios. The solute chemistry and Sr isotopic composition of group I brines are consistent with long-term residency in Mississippian carbonate rocks, and brines similar to these contaminated the groundwater. Group II brines probably resided in clastic rocks younger than the Mississippian limestones before moving into the Poplar dome to replenish the long-term fluid extraction from the Charles Formation. Collapse of strata at the crest of the Poplar dome resulting from dissolution of Charles salt in the early Paleogene probably developed pathways for the ingress of group II brines from overlying clastic aquifers into the Charles reservoir. Such changes in brine chemistry associated with long-term oil production may be a widespread phenomenon in the Williston Basin.

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