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Research about Montana

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Montana.

At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources

Influence of extreme and annual floods on point-bar sedimentation: Inferences from Powder River, Montana, USA

Effects of discharge variability on point-bar sedimentation are not well documented, although resulting changes in flow patterns are well known. This paper focuses on a meander of Powder River in Montana (USA). In May 1978, Powder River had a 50-year recurrence flood, which caused outer bank retreat of ∼70 m. This bank continued to retreat over ∼40 m in response to annual floods between 1979 and 2016. A trench, up to 2 m deep and 60 m long, was excavated in 2016 through the axial point-bar deposits accumulated during and since the 1978 flood. Deposits from the extreme 1978 flood consisted of stratified, coarsening-upward pebbles with subordinate sand, and show paleoflow toward the outer bank. Deposits accreted during subsequent annual floods consist of fining-upward, medium to fine sand with subordinate mud and gravel. These deposits contain sedimentary structures indicating transport from the channel up the bar. Field observations indicate that during extreme floods, the axial part of the bar was armored by coarsening-upward gravels and not affected by secondary helical circulation. In contrast, during annual floods, armoring was not observed and most of the flow was directed up the sloping point-bar surface, indicating secondary circulation near the bend apex. This paper shows that the area affected by the secondary helical circulation shifts downstream and upstream of the bend apex during extreme and annual floods, respectively. This causes significant changes in grain size and sedimentary facies distribution in point-bar deposits, which should be considered when analyzing meandering-river deposits in the ancient sedimentary record.

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First maturity and spawning periodicity of hatchery-origin pallid sturgeon in the upper Missouri River above Fort Peck Reservoir, Montana.

The pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus conservation propagation program has augmented declining wild populations since the 1990s and the older age classes of hatchery-origin fish are beginning to reach sexual maturity in the wild. Currently, the majority of the information available on the age and size at first maturity and spawning periodicity for pallid sturgeon in the upper basin is from captive hatchery-origin pallid sturgeon (i.e. age and size at first maturity and spawning periodicity) or from wild pallid sturgeon artificially spawned in the propagation program (i.e. spawning periodicity). The purpose of this study was to document age and size at first maturity and spawning periodicity of known age hatchery-origin pallid sturgeon that have reached maturity in the wild. Radio-tagged pallid sturgeon in the upper Missouri River upstream of Fort Peck Reservoir were serially sampled in the early-spring over multiple years and assigned to reproductive classifications each year based on sex-steroid concentrations. The youngest reproductively-active male hatchery-origin pallid sturgeon sampled was 14.5 years old and the youngest female was 18. Hatchery-origin males were observed having annual ( N = 3) and biennial ( N = 2) reproductive cycles. The observed spawning periodicity was similar to what has been reported elsewhere for the species. The youngest mature fish in this study are older and larger than what has been reported for those retained in captivity, indicating that body size alone is not a reliable predictor of maturity for pallid sturgeon.

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Using spatially‐explicit capture–recapture models to explain variation in seasonal density patterns of sympatric ursids

Understanding how environmental factors interact to determine the abundance and distribution of animals is a primary goal of ecology, and fundamental to the conservation of wildlife populations. Studies of these relationships, however, often assume static environmental conditions, and rarely consider effects of competition with ecologically similar species. In many parts of their shared ranges, grizzly bears Ursus arctos and American black bears U. americanus have nearly complete dietary overlap and share similar life history traits. We therefore tested the hypothesis that density patterns of both bear species would reflect seasonal variation in available resources, with areas of higher primary productivity supporting higher densities of both species. We also hypothesized that interspecific competition would influence seasonal density patterns. Specifically, we predicted that grizzly bear density would be locally reduced due to the ability of black bears to more efficiently exploit patchy food resources such as seasonally abundant fruits. To test our hypotheses, we used detections of 309 grizzly and 597 black bears from two independent genetic sampling methods in spatially‐explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models. Our results suggest grizzly bear density was lower in areas of high black bear density during spring and summer, although intraspecific densities were also important, particularly during the breeding season. Black bears had lower densities in areas of high grizzly bear density in spring; however, density of black bears in early and late summer was best explained by primary productivity. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that smaller‐bodied, more abundant black bears may influence the density patterns of behaviorally‐dominant grizzly bears through exploitative competition. We also suggest that seasonal variation in resource availability be considered in efforts to relate environmental conditions to animal density.

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Applying high-resolution imagery to evaluate restoration-induced changes in stream condition, Missouri River Headwaters Basin, Montana

Degradation of streams and associated riparian habitat across the Missouri River Headwaters Basin has motivated several stream restoration projects across the watershed. Many of these projects install a series of beaver dam analogues (BDAs) to aggrade incised streams, elevate local water tables, and create natural surface water storage by reconnecting streams with their floodplains. Satellite imagery can provide a spatially continuous mechanism to monitor the effects of these in-stream structures on stream surface area. However, remote sensing-based approaches to map narrow (e.g., <5 m wide) linear features such as streams have been under-developed relative to efforts to map other types of aquatic systems, such as wetlands or lakes. We mapped pre- and post-restoration (one to three years post-restoration) stream surface area and riparian greenness at four stream restoration sites using Worldview-2 and 3 images as well as a QuickBird-2 image. We found that panchromatic brightness and eCognition-based outputs (0.5 m resolution) provided high-accuracy maps of stream surface area (overall accuracy ranged from 91% to 99%) for streams as narrow as 1.5 m wide. Using image pairs, we were able to document increases in stream surface area immediately upstream of BDAs as well as increases in stream surface area along the restoration reach at Robb Creek, Alkali Creek and Long Creek (South). Although Long Creek (North) did not show a net increase in stream surface area along the restoration reach, we did observe an increase in riparian greenness, suggesting increased water retention adjacent to the stream. As high-resolution imagery becomes more widely collected and available, improvements in our ability to provide spatially continuous monitoring of stream systems can effectively complement more traditional field-based and gage-based datasets to inform watershed management.

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Methods for peak-flow frequency analysis and reporting for streamgages in or near Montana based on data through water year 2015

This report documents the methods for peak-flow frequency (hereinafter “frequency”) analysis and reporting for streamgages in and near Montana following implementation of the Bulletin 17C guidelines. The methods are used to provide estimates of peak-flow quantiles for 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for selected streamgages operated by the U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center (WY–MT WSC). These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Standard procedures specific to the WY–MT WSC for implementing the Bulletin 17C guidelines include (1) the use of the Expected Moments Algorithm analysis for fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution, incorporating historical information where applicable; (2) the use of weighted skew coefficients (based on weighting at-site station skew coefficients with generalized skew coefficients from the Bulletin 17B national skew map); and (3) the use of the Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test for identifying potentially influential low flows. For some streamgages, the peak-flow records are not well represented by the standard procedures and require user-specified adjustments informed by hydrologic judgement. The specific characteristics of peak-flow records addressed by the informed-user adjustments include (1) regulated peak-flow records, (2) atypical upper-tail peak-flow records, and (3) atypical lower-tail peak-flow records. In all cases, the informed-user adjustments use the Expected Moments Algorithm fit of the log-Pearson Type III distribution using the at-site station skew coefficient, a manual potentially influential low flow threshold, or both. Appropriate methods can be applied to at-site frequency estimates to provide improved representation of long-term hydroclimatic conditions. The methods for improving at-site frequency estimates by weighting with regional regression equations and by Maintenance of Variance Extension Type III record extension are described. Frequency analyses were conducted for 99 example streamgages to indicate various aspects of the frequency- analysis methods described in this report. The frequency analyses and results for the example streamgages are presented in a separate data release associated with this report consisting of tables and graphical plots that are structured to include information concerning the interpretive decisions involved in the frequency analyses. Further, the separate data release includes the input files to the PeakFQ program, version 7.1, including the peak-flow data file and the analysis specification file that were used in the peak-flow frequency analyses. Peak-flow frequencies are also reported in separate data releases for selected streamgages in the Beaverhead River and Clark Fork Basins and also for selected streamgages in the Ruby, Jefferson, and Madison River Basins.

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Landscape assessment of side channel plugs and associated cumulative side channel attrition across a large river floodplain

Determining the influences of anthropogenic perturbations on side channel dynamics in large rivers is important from both assessment and monitoring perspectives because side channels provide critical habitat to numerous aquatic species. Side channel extents are decreasing in large rivers worldwide. Although riprap and other linear structures have been shown to reduce side channel extents in large rivers, we hypothesized that small “anthropogenic plugs” (flow obstructions such as dikes or berms) across side channels modify whole-river geomorphology via accelerating side channel senescence. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a geospatial assessment, comparing digitized side channel areas from aerial photographs taken during the 1950s and 2001 along 512 km of the Yellowstone River floodplain. We identified longitudinal patterns of side channel recruitment (created/enlarged side channels) and side channel attrition (destroyed/senesced side channels) across n = 17 river sections within which channels were actively migrating. We related areal measures of recruitment and attrition to the density of anthropogenic side channel plugs across river sections. Consistent with our hypothesis, a positive spatial relationship existed between the density of anthropogenic plugs and side channel attrition, but no relationship existed between plug density and side channel recruitment. Our work highlights important linkages among side channel plugs and the persistence and restoration of side channels across floodplain landscapes. Specifically, management of small plugs represents a low-cost, high-benefit restoration opportunity to facilitate scouring flows in side channels to enable the persistence of these habitats over time.

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Water-quality, bed-sediment, and biological data (October 2015 through September 2016) and statistical summaries of data for streams in the Clark Fork Basin, Montana

Water, bed sediment, and biota were sampled in selected streams from Butte to near Missoula, Montana, as part of a monitoring program in the upper Clark Fork Basin of western Montana. The sampling program was led by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, to characterize aquatic resources in the Clark Fork Basin, with emphasis on trace elements associated with historic mining and smelting activities. Sampling sites were on the Clark Fork and selected tributaries. Water samples were collected periodically at 20 sites from October 2015 through September 2016. Bed-sediment and biota samples were collected once at 13 sites during August 2016. This report presents the analytical results and quality-assurance data for water-quality, bed-sediment, and biota samples collected at sites from October 2015 through September 2016. Water-quality data include concentrations of selected major ions, trace elements, and suspended sediment. Samples for analysis of turbidity were collected at 13 sites, whereas samples for analysis of dissolved organic carbon were collected at 10 sites. In addition, samples for analysis of nitrogen (nitrate plus nitrite) were collected at two sites. Daily values of mean suspended-sediment concentration and suspended-sediment discharge were determined for three sites. Seasonal daily values of turbidity were determined for five sites. Bed-sediment data include trace-element concentrations in the fine-grained (less than 0.063 millimeter) fraction. Biological data include trace-element concentrations in whole-body tissue of aquatic benthic insects. Statistical summaries of water-quality, bed-sediment, and biological data for sites in the upper Clark Fork Basin are provided for the period of record.

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Decadal changes in channel morphology of a freely meandering river—Powder River, Montana, 1975–2016

Few studies exist on the long-term geomorphic effects of floods. However, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was able to begin such a study after a 50-year recurrence interval flood in 1978 because 20 channel cross sections along a 100-kilometer reach of river were established in 1975 and 1977 as part of a study for a proposed dam on Powder River in southeastern Montana. These cross-section measurements (data for each channel cross section are available at the USGS ScienceBase website) have been repeated about 30 times during four decades (1975–2016) and provide a unique dataset for understanding long-term changes in channel morphology caused by an extreme flood and a spectrum of annual floods. Changes in channel morphology of a 100-kilometer reach of Powder River are documented in a series of narratives for each channel cross section that include a time series of photographs as a record of these changes. The primary change during the first decade (1975–85) was the rapid vertical growth of a new inset flood plain within the flood-widened channel. Changes during the second decade (1985–95) were characterized by slower growth of the flood plain, and the effects of ice-jam floods typical of a northward-flowing river. Changes during the third decade (1995–2005) showed little vertical growth of the inset flood plain, which had reached a height that limited overbank deposition. And changes during the final decade (2005–16) covered in this report showed that, because the new inset flood plain had reached a limiting height, the effects of the large annual flood of 2008 (largest flood since 1978) were relatively small compared to smaller floods in previous decades. Throughout these four decades, the riparian vegetation, which interacts with the river, has undergone a gradual but substantial change that may have lasting effects on the channel morphology.

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Distinguishing values from science in decision making: Setting harvest quotas for mountain lions in Montana

The relative roles of science and human values can be difficult to distinguish when informal processes are used to make complex and contentious decisions in wildlife management. Structured Decision Making (SDM) offers a formal process for making such decisions, where scientific results and concepts can be disentangled from the values of differing stakeholders. We used SDM to formally integrate science and human values for a citizen working group of ungulate hunting advocates, lion hunting advocates, and outfitters convened to address the contentious allocation of harvest quotas for mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) in west‐central Montana, USA, during 2014. A science team consisting of mountain lion biologists and population ecologists convened to support the working group. The science team used integrated population models that incorporated 4 estimates of mountain lion density to estimate population trajectories for 5 alternative harvest quotas developed by the working group. Results of the modeling predicted that effects of each harvest quota were consistent across the 4 density estimates; harvest quotas affected predicted population trajectories for 5 years after implementation but differences were not strong. Based on these results, the focus of the working group changed to differences in values among stakeholders that were the true impediment to allocating harvest quotas. By distinguishing roles of science and human values in this process, the working group was able to collaboratively recommend a compromise solution. This solution differed little from the status quo that had been the focus of debate, but the SDM process produced understanding and buy‐in among stakeholders involved, reducing disagreements, misunderstanding, and unproductive arguments founded on informal application of scientific data and concepts. Whereas investments involved in conducting SDM may be unnecessary for many decisions in wildlife management, the investment may be beneficial for complex, contentious, and multiobjective decisions that integrate science and human values.

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Ecological drought: Accounting for the non-human impacts of water shortage in the Upper Missouri Headwaters Basin, Montana, USA

Water laws and drought plans are used to prioritize and allocate scarce water resources. Both have historically been human-centric, failing to account for non-human water needs. In this paper, we examine the development of instream flow legislation and the evolution of drought planning to highlight the growing concern for the non-human impacts of water scarcity. Utilizing a new framework for ecological drought, we analyzed five watershed-scale drought plans in southwestern Montana, USA to understand if, and how, the ecological impacts of drought are currently being assessed. We found that while these plans do account for some ecological impacts, it is primarily through the narrow lens of impacts to fish as measured by water temperature and streamflow. The latter is typically based on the same ecological principles used to determine instream flow requirements. We also found that other resource plans in the same watersheds (e.g., Watershed Restoration Plans, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Watershed Assessments or United States Forest Service (USFS) Forest Plans) identify a broader range of ecological drought risks. Given limited resources and the potential for mutual benefits and synergies, we suggest greater integration between various planning processes could result in a more holistic consideration of water needs and uses across the landscape.

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Geomorphic determinants of species composition of alpine tundra, Glacier National Park, U.S.A.

Because the distribution of alpine tundra is associated with spatially limited cold climates, global warming may threaten its local extent or existence. This notion has been challenged, however, based on observations of the diversity of alpine tundra in small areas primarily due to topographic variation. The importance of diversity in temperature or moisture conditions caused by topographic variation is an open question, and we extend this to geomorphology more generally. The extent to which geomorphic variation per se , based on relatively easily assessed indicators, can account for the variation in alpine tundra community composition is analyzed versus the inclusion of broad indicators of regional climate variation. Visual assessments of topography are quantified and reduced using principal components analysis (PCA). Observations of species cover are reduced using detrended correspondence analysis (DCA). A “best subsets” regression approach using the Akaike Information Criterion for selection of variables is compared to a simple stepwise regression with DCA scores as the dependent variable and scores on significant PCA axes plus more direct measures of topography as independent variables. Models with geographic coordinates (representing regional climate gradients) excluded explain almost as much variation in community composition as models with them included, although they are important contributors to the latter. The geomorphic variables in the model are those associated with local moisture differences such as snowbeds. The potential local variability of alpine tundra can be a buffer against climate change, but change in precipitation may be as important as change in temperature.

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Glacier-derived August runoff in northwest Montana

The second largest concentration of glaciers in the U.S. Rocky Mountains is located in Glacier National Park (GNP), Montana. The total glacier-covered area in this region decreased by &sim;35% over the past 50 years, which has raised substantial concern about the loss of the water derived from glaciers during the summer. We used an innovative weather station design to collect in situ measurements on five remote glaciers, which are used to parameterize a regional glacier melt model. This model offered a first-order estimate of the summer meltwater production by glaciers. We find, during the normally dry month of August, glaciers in the region produce approximately 25 &times; 10 6 m 3 of potential runoff. We then estimated the glacier runoff component in five gaged streams sourced from GNP basins containing glaciers. Glacier-melt contributions range from 5% in a basin only 0.12% glacierized to >90% in a basin 28.5% glacierized. Glacier loss would likely lead to lower discharges and warmer temperatures in streams draining basins >20% glacier-covered. Lower flows could even be expected in streams draining basins as little as 1.4% glacierized if glaciers were to disappear.

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Two-event lode-ore deposition at Butte, USA: 40Ar/39Ar and U-Pb documentation of Ag-Au-polymetallic lodes overprinted by younger stockwork Cu-Mo ores and penecontemporaneous Cu lodes

The ore-genesis model for world-class deposits of the Butte mining district, Montana, USA, is deep pre-Main Stage porphyry Cu-Mo and overlying Main Stage Ag-Zn-Cu zoned-lode deposits, both of which formed from hydrothermal fluids driven by minor volumes of rhyolitic magma. The lode-specific model is that hydrothermal processes diminished in intensity outward from district center along lode veins, synchronously forming metal zones. The accepted models are controverted by new geologic and multi-method geochronologic studies. The new data reveal the following sequence of events: (1) Thermal study of country rock indicates that the 76.9-Ma Butte Granite cooled to 350–400 °C by 4 m.y. after emplacement. (2) Five quartz porphyry rhyolite dikes were emplaced at 67–65 Ma and another at 60 Ma (SHRIMP U-Pb) into the cooled Butte Granite without resetting 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages in country rock. (3) Fifty-eight white mica and K-feldspar samples from alteration envelopes adjacent to Ag-Au-polymetallic lodes in outer parts of the district, Zn-rich lodes in intermediate parts, and Cu-rich lodes in the district center yield 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages of 73–70 Ma for Ag-rich lodes, 65–64 Ma for Cu-rich lodes, and complex age spectra of 69–65 Ma for Zn-rich lodes. The data show that Ag-Au-polymetallic lodes occupied cross-district fractures by about 73 Ma, forming the greater Butte mining district. At 67–65 Ma, minor quartz porphyry dikes were emplaced into central and eastern parts of the rejuvenated fracture system but without evidence of related cupola or volcanic rocks or of thermal disturbance in the country rock. At 64.5 Ma, overlapping hydrothermal cells formed two stockwork Cu-Mo domes in deep parts of the fracture system. At 65–64 Ma and closely related to late-stage stockwork Cu-Mo activity, a penecontemporaneous hydrothermal pulse formed a high-sulfidation hydrothermal plume that (1) utilized the large re-opened fractures to cannibalize and remobilize Cu from autologous, stockwork, and older Ag-Au-polymetallic lodes, (2) deposited the rich, high-sulfidation Cu lodes, and (3) mobilized metals from early Ag-Au-polymetallic veins in middle parts of the district, transported the metals outward and redeposited them, enriching early veins, especially in the intermediate Zn plus Cu areas. Metals zones in lodes of the Butte district are the result of an intensely focused, Cu-rich hydrothermal plume that variably reworked the center of significantly larger, 10 m.y. older, Ag-Au-polymetallic lodes.

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Estimating the risk of elk-to-livestock brucellosis transmission in Montana

Wildlife reservoirs of infectious disease are a major source of human-wildlife conflict because of the risk of potential spillover associated with commingling of wildlife and livestock. In Montana, the presence of brucellosis (Brucella abortus) in free-ranging elk (Cervus canadensis) populations is of significant management concern because of the risk of disease transmission from elk to livestock. To help mitigate potential conflict, we identified how spillover risk changes through space and time using a combination of elk population, disease, and movement data. We developed resource selection functions using telemetry data from 223 female elk to predict the relative probability of female elk occurrence on a daily basis during the 15 February-30 June transmission risk period. We combined these spatiotemporal predictions with elk seroprevalence, demography, and abortion timing data to identify when and where abortions (the primary transmission route of brucellosis) were most likely to occur. Additionally, we integrated these predictions with spatiotemporal data on livestock distribution to estimate the daily risk of livestock encountering brucellosis-induced elk abortions. We estimated that a minimum of ~17,500 adult female elk lived within our study area, which resulted in a conservative estimate of ~525 brucellosis-induced abortions each year. We predicted that approximately half of the transmission events occurred on livestock properties and 98% of those properties were private ranchlands as opposed to state or federal grazing allotments. Our fine-resolution (250-m spatial, 1-day temporal), large-scale (17,732 km2) predictions of potential elk-to-livestock transmission risk provide wildlife and livestock managers with a useful tool to identify higher risk areas in space and time and proactively focus actions in these areas to separate elk and livestock to reduce spillover risk.

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Transgressive-regressive cycles in the metalliferous, oil-shale-bearing Heath Formation (Upper Mississippian), central Montana

The Upper Mississippian Heath Formation, which accumulated in the Big Snowy Trough of central Montana, has been known for three decades to contain mudrocks highly enriched in Zn, V, Mo, Ni and other metals, and source rocks for oil. The unit has more recently been recognized as a prospective tight oil play. Here we present petrographic, paleontologic, geochemical, and carbon and sulfur isotope data on seven continuous drill cores spanning ≤146 m of immature to marginally mature strata in order to improve understanding of the depositional setting of the Heath. The unit consists of five third-order transgressive-regressive cycles (C1–C5 from bottom to top) that were deposited during a fluctuating climatic regime. Cycles comprise thinly interbedded gray to black mudrock and carbonate strata capped by either coal, implying a humid climate (C1, C3 and C4), or gypsum, implying more arid conditions (C2); the upper part of C5 is not preserved in our study area. Mfs (maximum flooding surfaces) in C1, C2, C4, and C5 lie within black mudrock beds ~0.5–3-m thick with >10% TOC (total organic carbon), type I and type II kerogen (determined by programmed pyrolysis), high contents of Zn, V, Mo, and other metals, relatively low values of δ13CTOC and δ34Spyrite, and a limited-diversity fauna of locally abundant, thin-shelled pelecypods (Dunbarella? sp.). The mfs in C2 is within the Cox Ranch oil shale bed, which is known from previous studies to be metalliferous; new analyses reported here show ≤28 wt % TOC, 5140 ppm Zn, 1910 ppm V, 1590 ppm Mo, and 509 ppm Ni. Strata that contain the mfs of C1, C4, and C5 are shown here for the first time to also have high metal contents, with maximum values of 1030–7340 ppm Zn, 446–1980 ppm V, 72–859 ppm Mo, and 221–452 ppm Ni. Cycle C3, which contains more gray mudrock and carbonate beds than the other cycles, has lower TOC (≤4.2 wt %), lower metals, and mainly type III kerogen. Carbonate beds include normal-marine crinoidal mudstone to packstone and lesser (dolo)mudstone with fenestral fabric, peloids, intraclasts, and a euryhaline fauna. Mid-Chesterian (early Serpukhovian) foraminifers in C3, combined with previously published fossil data, suggest that third-order cycles in the Heath Formation were ~1–2 myr in duration. They formed during a time of active block faulting in the Big Snowy Trough and global cooling linked to Gondwanan glaciation. Tectonic, climatic, and paleogeographic factors shaped the cycles of the Heath Formation. Faunal and geochemical evidence indicate that conditions were most favorable for marine life during C3. Molybdenum concentrations >100 ppm and organic geochemical data suggest euxinic conditions during deposition of the black mudrock in C2, C4, and C5, but the presence of shell beds (1 mm–6-cm thick) within this mudrock requires bottom water with sufficient oxygen to support life, at least periodically. The apparent conflict between the geochemical and paleontologic observations likely reflects the different time scales of these two environmental proxies: 1000s of yrs vs <1–10s of yrs, respectively. Metal- and organic-rich strata in the Heath Formation formed by slow, condensed sedimentation from periodically anoxic or euxinic bottom waters in a marine basin. Fossil data indicate that anoxia was episodic, perhaps seasonal and/or linked to longer-duration climate shifts. On a millennial time scale, metal enrichments in the Heath reflect a balance between primary productivity that was high enough for oxygen to be consumed by sinking organic matter and oxic seawater inflow that was strong enough to maintain a supply of metals without compromising anoxia. Organic-rich mudrock in the Heath shares intriguing lithologic and geochemical similarities with mudrock in other Middle to Upper Paleozoic units such as the Devonian-Mississippian Bakken Formation and Pennsylvanian cyclothems (e.g., Excello Shale).

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Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape

Aim Climate warming is causing extensive loss of glaciers in mountainous regions, yet our understanding of how glacial recession influences evolutionary processes and genetic diversity is limited. Linking genetic structure with the influences shaping it can improve understanding of how species respond to environmental change. Here, we used genome-scale data and demographic modelling to resolve the evolutionary history of Lednia tumana , a rare, aquatic insect endemic to alpine streams. We also employed a range of widely used data filtering approaches to quantify how they influenced population structure results. Location Alpine streams in the Rocky Mountains of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Taxon Lednia tumana , a stonefly (Order Plecoptera) in the family Nemouridae. Methods We generated single nucleotide polymorphism data through restriction-site associated DNA sequencing to assess contemporary patterns of genetic structure for 11 L. tumana populations. Using identified clusters, we assessed demographic history through model selection and parameter estimation in a coalescent framework. During population structure analyses, we filtered our data to assess the influence of singletons, missing data and total number of markers on results. Results Contemporary patterns of population structure indicate that L. tumana exhibits a pattern of isolation-by-distance among populations within three genetic clusters that align with geography. Mean pairwise genetic differentiation ( F ST ) among populations was 0.033. Coalescent-based demographic modelling supported divergence with gene flow among genetic clusters since the end of the Pleistocene (~13-17 kya), likely reflecting the south-to-north recession of ice sheets that accumulated during the Wisconsin glaciation. Main conclusions We identified a link between glacial retreat, evolutionary history and patterns of genetic diversity for a range-restricted stonefly imperiled by climate change. This finding included a history of divergence with gene flow, an unexpected conclusion for a mountaintop species. Beyond L. tumana , this study demonstrates the complexity of assessing genetic structure for weakly differentiated species, shows the degree to which rare alleles and missing data may influence results, and highlights the usefulness of genome-scale data to extend population genetic inquiry in non-model species.

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Novel application of explicit dynamics occupancy models to ongoing aquatic invasions

Identification of suitable habitats, where invasive species can establish, is an important step towards controlling their spread. Accurate identification is difficult for new or slow invaders because unoccupied habitats may be suitable, given enough time for dispersal, while occupied habitats may prove to be unsuitable for establishment. To identify the suitable habitat of a recent invader, I used an explicit dynamics occupancy modelling framework to evaluate habitat covariates related to successful and failed establishments of American bullfrogs ( Lithobates catesbeianus ) within the Yellowstone River floodplain of Montana, USA from 2012-2016. During this five-year period, bullfrogs failed to establish at most sites they colonized. Bullfrog establishment was most likely to occur and least likely to fail at sites closest to human-modified ponds and lakes and those with emergent vegetation. These habitat covariates were generally associated with the presence of permanent water. Suitable habitat for bullfrog establishment is abundant in the Yellowstone River floodplain, though many sites with suitable habitat remain uncolonized. Thus, the maximum distribution of bullfrogs is much greater than their current distribution. Synthesis and applications. Focused control efforts on habitats with or proximate to permanent waters are most likely to reduce the potential for invasive bullfrog establishment and spread in the Yellowstone River. The novel application of explicit dynamics occupancy models is a useful and widely applicable tool for guiding management efforts towards those habitats where new or slow invaders are most likely to establish and persist.

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