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Research about Missouri

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Missouri.

At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources

Mercury bioaccumulation and biomagnification in Ozark stream ecosystems

Crayfish ( Orconectes spp.), Asian clam ( Corbicula fluminea ), northern hog sucker (hog sucker; Hypentelium nigricans ), and smallmouth bass (smallmouth; Micropterus dolomieu ) from streams in southeastern Missouri (USA) were analyzed for total mercury (HgT) and for stable isotopes of carbon (δ 13 C), nitrogen (δ 15 N), and sulfur (δ 34 S) to discern Hg transfer pathways. HgT concentrations were generally lowest in crayfish (0.005–0.112 μg/g dw) and highest in smallmouth (0.093–4.041 μg/g dw), as was δ 15 N. HgT was also lower and δ 15 N was higher in all biota from a stream draining a more heavily populated historical lead–zinc mining area than from similar sites with mostly undeveloped forested watersheds. δ 13 C in biota was lowest at spring-influenced sites, reflecting CO 2 inputs and temperature influences, and δ 34 S increased from south to north in all taxa. However, HgT was not strongly correlated with either δ 13 C or δ 34 S in biota. Trophic position (TP) computed from crayfish δ 15 N was lower in hog suckers (mean=2.8) than in smallmouth (mean=3.2), but not at all sites. HgT, δ 13 C, δ 34 S, and TP in hog suckers increased with total length (length) at some sites, indicating site-specific ontogenetic diet shifts. Changes with length were less evident in smallmouth. Length-adjusted HgT site means in both species were strongly correlated with HgT in crayfish ( r 2 =0.97, P <0.01), but not with HgT in Corbicula ( r 2 =0.02, P >0.05). ANCOVA and regression models incorporating only TP and, for hog suckers, length, accurately and precisely predicted HgT concentrations in both fish species from all locations. Although low compared to many areas of the USA, HgT (and therefore methylmercury) concentrations in smallmouth and hog suckers are sufficiently high to represent a threat to human health and wildlife. Our data indicate that in Ozark streams, Hg concentrations in crayfish are at least partly determined by their diet, with concentrations in hog suckers, smallmouth, and possibly other higher-level consumers largely determined by concentrations in crayfish and other primary and secondary consumers, fish growth rates, and TP.

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Evaluation of ADCP apparent bed load velocity in a large sand-bed river: Moving versus stationary boat conditions

Detailed mapping of bathymetry and apparent bed load velocity using a boat-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) was carried out along a 388-m section of the lower Missouri River near Columbia, Missouri. Sampling transects (moving boat) were completed at 5- and 20-m spacing along the study section. Stationary (fixed-boat) measurements were made by maintaining constant boat position over a target point where the position of the boat did not deviate more than 3 m in any direction. For each transect and stationary measurement, apparent bed load velocity ( v b "> v b vb ) was estimated using ADCP bottom tracking data and high precision real-time kinematic (RTK) global positioning system (GPS). The principal objectives of this research are to (1) determine whether boat motion introduces a bias in apparent bed load velocity measurements; and (2) evaluate the reliability of ADCP bed velocity measurements for a range of sediment transport environments. Results indicate that both high transport ( v &#xAF; b &gt; 0.6 &#x2009; &#x2009; m / s "> v ¯ b > 0.6 m / s v¯b>0.6 m/s ) and moving-boat conditions (for both high and low transport environments) increase the relative variability in estimates of mean bed velocity. Despite this, the spatially dense single-transect measurements were capable of producing detailed bed velocity maps that correspond closely with the expected pattern of sediment transport over large dunes.

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Temperature and oxygen in Missouri reservoirs

Vertical profiles of water temperature (n = 7193) and dissolved oxygen (n = 6516) were collected from 235 Missouri reservoirs during 1989–2007; most data were collected during May–August and provide a regional summary of summer conditions. Collectively, surface water temperature ranged from a mean of ~22 C in May to 28 C in July, and individual summer maxima typically were 28–32 C. Most (~95%) reservoirs stably stratify by mid-May, but few are deep enough to have hypolimnia with near-uniform temperatures. Among stratified reservoirs, maximum effective length and maximum depth accounted for 75% of the variation in mixed depth and thermocline depth. Ephemeral, near-surface thermoclines occurred in 39% of summer profiles and were most frequent in small, turbid reservoirs. Isotherms below the mixed layer deepen during stratification, and the water column is >20 C by August in all but the deepest reservoirs. Most reservoirs showed incipient dissolved oxygen (DO) depletion by mid-May, and by August, 80% of profiles had DO minima of <1 mg/L. Surface area and chlorophyll (Chl) explained 37% of variation in the earliest date of anoxia, and Chl explained >50% of variation in DO below the mixed layer during summer. Warm summer temperatures and widespread low DO often limit available fish habitat in Missouri reservoirs and compress warm-water fish communities into subsurface layers that exceed their thermal preferences. This study provides a regional baseline of reservoir temperature and oxygen conditions useful for future evaluations of eutrophication and the effects of a warming climate.

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Quality of surface water in Missouri, water year 2010

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, designs and operates a series of monitoring stations on streams throughout Missouri known as the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network. During the 2010 water year (October 1, 2009 through September 30, 2010), data were collected at 75 stations-72 Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network stations, 2 U.S. Geological Survey National Stream Quality Accounting Network stations, and 1 spring sampled in cooperation with the U.S. Forest Service. Dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, water temperature, suspended solids, suspended sediment, fecal coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli bacteria, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite, total phosphorus, dissolved and total recoverable lead and zinc, and select pesticide compound summaries are presented for 72 of these stations. The stations primarily have been classified into groups corresponding to the physiography of the State, primary land use, or unique station types. In addition, a summary of hydrologic conditions in the State including peak discharges, monthly mean discharges, and 7-day low flow is presented.

Data Series↗

Vegetation communities at Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge, Missouri

New and existing data were used to describe and map vegetation communities at Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge. Existing data had been gathered during the growing seasons of 2002, 2003, and 2004. New data were collected in 2007 to describe previously unsampled communities and communities within which insufficient data had been collected. Plot data and field observations were used to describe 17 natural and semi-natural communities at the Association level of the National Vegetation Classification System (NVCS). Four ruderal communities not included in the NVCS are also described. Data were used to inform delineation of communities using aerial photos from 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2007. During this process, eleven additional land cover classes including cultural features, managed vegetation communities, and water features were identified. These features were mapped, some were described, but no vegetation data were collected. In 2009, nearly all community polygons were field visited and classified to the Association level. When necessary, polygon boundaries were adjusted based on field observations. The final map includes 482 polygons of 27 land cover classes encompassing 3,174 hectares on 5 units of the refuge. Data and information will inform the development of the refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan.

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Contributing recharge areas, groundwater travel time, and groundwater quality of the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near the Independence, Missouri, well field, 1997-2008

The City of Independence, Missouri, operates a well field in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer. Contributing recharge areas (CRA) were last determined for the well field in 1996. Since that time, eight supply wells have been installed in the area north of the Missouri River and well pumpage has changed for the older supply wells. The change in pumping has altered groundwater flow and substantially changed the character of the CRA and groundwater travel times to the supply wells. The U.S Geological Survey, in a cooperative study with the City of Independence, Missouri, simulated steady-state groundwater flow for 2007 well pumpage, average annual river stage, and average annual recharge. Particle-tracking analysis was used to determine the CRA for supply wells and monitoring wells, and the travel time from recharge areas to supply wells, recharge areas to monitoring wells, and monitoring wells to supply wells. The simulated CRA for the well field is elongated in the upstream direction and extends to both sides of the Missouri River. Groundwater flow paths and recharge areas estimated for monitoring wells indicate the origin of water to each monitoring well, the travel time of that water from the recharge area, the flow path from the vicinity of each monitoring well to a supply well, and the travel time from the monitoring well to the supply well. Monitoring wells 14a and 14b have the shortest groundwater travel time from their contributing recharge area of 0.30 years and monitoring well 29a has the longest maximum groundwater travel time from its contributing recharge area of 1,701 years. Monitoring well 22a has the shortest groundwater travel time of 0.5 day to supply well 44 and monitoring well 3b has the longest maximum travel time of 31.91 years to supply well 10. Water-quality samples from the Independence groundwater monitoring well network were collected from 1997 to 2008 by USGS personnel during ongoing annual sampling within the 10-year contributing recharge area (CRA) of the Independence well field. Statistical summaries and the spatial and temporal variability of water quality in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near the Independence well field were characterized from analyses of 598 water samples. Water-quality constituent groups include dissolved oxygen and physical properties, nutrients, major ions and trace elements, wastewater indicator compounds, fuel compounds, and total benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX), alachlor, and atrazine. The Missouri Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level (SMCL) for iron was exceeded in almost all monitoring wells. The Missouri Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for arsenic was exceeded 32 times in samples from monitoring wells. The MCL for barium was exceeded five times in samples from one monitoring well. The SMCL for manganese was exceeded 160 times in samples from all monitoring wells and the combined well-field sample. The most frequently detected wastewater indicator compounds were N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET), phenol, caffeine, and metolachlor. The most frequently detected fuel compounds were toluene and benzene. Alachlor was detected in 22 samples and atrazine was detected in 37 samples and the combined well-field sample. The MCL for atrazine was exceeded in one sample from one monitoring well. Samples from monitoring wells with median concentrations of total inorganic nitrogen larger than 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) are located near agricultural land and may indicate that agricultural land practices are the source of nitrogen to groundwater. Largest median values of specific conductance; total inorganic nitrogen; dissolved calcium, magnesium, sodium, iron, arsenic, manganese, bicarbonate, and sulfate and detections of wastewater indicator compounds generally were in water samples from monitoring wells with CRAs that intersect the south bank of the Missouri River. Zones of higher specific conductance were located just upstream from the Independence well field at south-bank outfalls from wastewater treatment plants, the Blue River, and the south bank of the Missouri River near the closed oil refinery. The long-term presence of these south-bank outfalls and the large specific conductance indicate that the surface water at the south bank of the Missouri River near the Independence well field may have consistently higher dissolved solids and nutrients that can be induced into the aquifer by pumping. Large median concentrations of sodium and chloride from samples from monitoring wells may be the result of road salt use on State Highway 291 or from Mill Creek, which drains the uplands south of the Independence well field. Large median concentrations of arsenic in samples from some monitoring well nests are most likely associated with dissolution of iron and sulfide minerals and fluctuation between oxidizing and reducing conditions. Largest median concentrations for arsenic are in the shallow depth interval where fluctuations between oxidizing and reducing conditions occur. Median concentrations of iron are large in all monitoring wells and are most likely caused by the interaction between fluctuating oxidizing and reducing conditions and siderite and ferric hydroxide. Spatial and temporal trends are not evident from the fuel compounds or total BTEX sample results. Alachlor and atrazine were detected in most monitoring wells and atrazine was detected more often than alachlor. The source of alachlor and atrazine in groundwater near the Independence well field is most likely from nearby agricultural land management practices and (or) the Missouri River. Many of the samples from monitoring wells with alachlor or atrazine detections greater than 10 percent have contributing recharge areas that intersect either agricultural land or the Missouri River bed.

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Bathymetric surveys at highway bridges crossing the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers near St. Louis, Missouri, 2010

Bathymetric surveys were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, on the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers in the vicinity of 12 bridges at 7 highway crossings near St. Louis, Missouri, in October 2010. A multibeam echo sounder mapping system was used to obtain channel-bed elevations for river reaches ranging from 3,280 to 4,590 feet long and extending across the active channel of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. These bathymetric scans provide a snapshot of the channel conditions at the time of the surveys and provide characteristics of scour holes that may be useful in the development of predictive guidelines or equations for scour holes. These data also may be used by the Missouri Department of Transportation to assess the bridges for stability and integrity issues with respect to bridge scour. Bathymetric data were collected around every pier that was in water, except those at the edge of water or in extremely shallow water, and one pier that was surrounded by a large debris raft. Scour holes were present at most piers for which bathymetry could be obtained, and ranged from 0 to 16 feet deep except at piers on channel banks or those near or embedded in rock dikes. Scour holes observed at the surveyed bridges were examined with respect to frontal slope and shape, and scour holes near railroad bridges in the vicinity of the highway bridges also were examined. Although exposure of parts of foundational support elements was observed at several piers, the exposure likely can be considered minimal compared to the overall substructure that remains buried at these piers. At piers with well-defined scour holes, the frontal slopes of the holes ranged from 1.70 to 2.94 feet per foot (computed as run over rise), which were similar to recommended values in the literature (generally ranging from 1.0 to 2.0), and the shapes of the scour holes were not substantially affected by the movement of sand waves into the holes. Spur dikes near several of the piers caused localized flow disturbances that caused the resultant scour holes to display characteristics of skewed approach flow. The channel bed in the 2010 surveys was as much as 16 feet lower than the channel bed at the time of construction at the two oldest surveyed bridges, and the range varied with age of the structure, indicating the channel-bed elevations have lowered with time. However, other research has indicated the extremely dynamic nature of the channel bed on the Mississippi River. The size of the scour holes observed at the surveyed sites likely was affected by the low to moderate flow conditions on the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers at the time of the surveys. The scour holes likely would be larger during conditions of increased flow. Artifacts of horizontal positioning errors were present in the data, but an analysis of the surveys indicated that most of the bathymetric data have a total propagated error of less than 0.33 foot.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

An acarologic survey and Amblyomma americanum distribution map with implications for tularemia risk in Missouri

In the United States, tickborne diseases occur focally. Missouri represents a major focus of several tickborne diseases that includes spotted fever rickettsiosis, tularemia, and ehrlichiosis. Our study sought to determine the potential risk of human exposure to human-biting vector ticks in this area. We collected ticks in 79 sites in southern Missouri during June 7–10, 2009, which yielded 1,047 adult and 3,585 nymphal Amblyomma americanum , 5 adult Amblyomma maculatum , 19 adult Dermacentor variabilis , and 5 nymphal Ixodes brunneus . Logistic regression analysis showed that areas posing an elevated risk of exposure to A. americanum nymphs or adults were more likely to be classified as forested than grassland, and the probability of being classified as elevated risk increased with increasing relative humidity during the month of June (30-year average). Overall accuracy of each of the two models was greater than 70% and showed that 20% and 30% of the state were classified as elevated risk for human exposure to nymphs and adults, respectively. We also found a significant positive association between heightened acarologic risk and counties reporting tularemia cases. Our study provides an updated distribution map for A. americanum in Missouri and suggests a wide-spread risk of human exposure to A. americanum and their associated pathogens in this region.

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The aquatic turtle assemblage inhabiting a highly altered landscape in southeast Missouri

Turtles are linked to energetic food webs as both consumers of plants and animals and prey for many species. Turtle biomass in freshwater systems can be an order of magnitude greater than that of endotherms. Therefore, declines in freshwater turtle populations can change energy transfer in freshwater systems. Here we report on a mark&ndash;recapture study at a lake and adjacent borrow pit in a relict tract of bottomland hardwood forest in the Mississippi River floodplain in southeast Missouri, which was designed to gather baseline data, including sex ratio, size structure, and population size, density, and biomass, for the freshwater turtle population. Using a variety of capture methods, we captured seven species of freshwater turtles (snapping turtle Chelydra serpentina ; red-eared slider Trachemys scripta ; southern painted turtle Chrysemys dorsalis ; river cooter Pseudemys concinna ; false map turtle Graptemys pseudogeographica ; eastern musk turtle Sternotherus odoratus ; spiny softshell Apalone spinifera ) comprising four families (Chelydridae, Emydidae, Kinosternidae, Trinoychidae). With the exception of red-eared sliders, nearly all individuals captured were adults. Most turtles were captured by baited hoop-nets, and this was the only capture method that caught all seven species. The unbaited fyke net was very successful in the borrow pit, but only captured four of the seven species. Basking traps and deep-water crawfish nets had minimal success. Red-eared sliders had the greatest population estimate (2,675), density (205/ha), and biomass (178 kg/ha). Two species exhibited a sex-ratio bias: snapping turtles C. serpentina in favor of males, and spiny softshells A. spinifera in favor of females.

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An exploratory investigation of polar organic compounds in waters from a lead&ndash;zinc mine and mill complex

Surface water samples were collected in 2006 from a lead mine-mill complex in Missouri to investigate possible organic compounds coming from the milling process. Water samples contained relatively high concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC; greater than 20 mg/l) for surface waters but were colorless, implying a lack of naturally occurring aquatic humic or fulvic acids. Samples were extracted by three different types of solid-phase extraction and analyzed by electrospray ionization/mass spectrometry. Because large amounts of xanthate complexation reagents are used in the milling process, techniques were developed to extract and analyze for sodium isopropyl xanthate and sodium ethyl xanthate. Although these xanthate reagents were not found, trace amounts of the degradates, isopropyl xanthyl thiosulfonate and isopropyl xanthyl sulfonate, were found in most locations sampled, including the tailings pond downstream. Dioctyl sulfosuccinate, a surfactant and process filtering aid, was found at concentrations estimated at 350 &mu;g/l at one mill outlet, but not downstream. Release of these organic compounds downstream from lead-zinc mine and milling areas has not previously been reported. A majority of the DOC remains unidentified.

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Flow over bedforms in a large sand-bed river: A field investigation

An experimental field study of flows over bedforms was conducted on the Missouri River near St. Charles, Missouri. Detailed velocity data were collected under two different flow conditions along bedforms in this sand-bed river. The large river-scale data reflect flow characteristics similar to those of laboratory-scale flows, with flow separation occurring downstream of the bedform crest and flow reattachment on the stoss side of the next downstream bedform. Wave-like responses of the flow to the bedforms were detected, with the velocity decreasing throughout the flow depth over bedform troughs, and the velocity increasing over bedform crests. Local and spatially averaged velocity distributions were logarithmic for both datasets. The reach-wise spatially averaged vertical-velocity profile from the standard velocity-defect model was evaluated. The vertically averaged mean flow velocities for the velocity-defect model were within 5% of the measured values and estimated spatially averaged point velocities were within 10% for the upper 90% of the flow depth. The velocity-defect model, neglecting the wake function, was evaluated and found to estimate thevertically averaged mean velocity within 1% of the measured values.

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Interpolating a consumption variable for scaling and generalizing potential population pressure on urbanizing natural areas

Measures of population pressure, referring in general to the stress upon the environment by human consumption of resources, are imperative for environmental sustainability studies and management. Development based on resource consumption is the predominant factor of population pressure. This paper presents a spatial model of population pressure by linking consumption associated with regional urbanism and ecosystem services. Maps representing relative geographic degree and extent of natural resource consumption and degree and extent of impacts on surrounding areas are new, and this research represents the theoretical research toward this goal. With development, such maps offer a visualization tool for planners of various services, amenities for people, and conservation planning for ecologist. Urbanization is commonly generalized by census numbers or impervious surface area. The potential geographical extent of urbanism encompasses the environmental resources of the surrounding region that sustain cities. This extent is interpolated using kriging of a variable based on population wealth data from the U.S. Census Bureau. When overlayed with land-use/land-cover data, the results indicate that the greatest estimates of population pressure fall within mixed forest areas. Mixed forest areas result from the spread of cedar woods in previously disturbed areas where further disturbance is then suppressed. Low density areas, such as suburbanization and abandoned farmland are characteristic of mixed forest areas.

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Chemistry of selected core samples, concentrate, tailings, and tailings pond waters: Pea Ridge iron (-lanthanide-gold) deposit, Washington County, Missouri

The Minerals at Risk and for Emerging Technologies Project of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Resources Program is examining potential sources of lanthanide elements (rare earth elements) as part of its objective to provide up-to-date geologic information regarding mineral commodities likely to have increased demand in the near term. As part of the examination effort, a short visit was made to the Pea Ridge iron (-lanthanide-gold) deposit, Washington County, Missouri in October 2008. The deposit, currently owned by Wings Enterprises, Inc. of St. Louis, Missouri (Wings), contains concentrations of lanthanides that may be economic as a primary product or as a byproduct of iron ore production. This report tabulates the results of chemical analyses of the Pea Ridge samples and compares rare earth elements contents for world class lanthanide deposits with those of the Pea Ridge deposit. The data presented for the Pea Ridge deposit are preliminary and include some company data that have not been verified by the USGS or by the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geology and Land Survey (DGLS), Geological Survey Program (MGS). The inclusion of company data is for comparative purposes only and does not imply an endorsement by either the USGS or MGS.

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Estimation of magnitude and frequency of floods in urban basins in Missouri

Streamgage flood-frequency analyses were done for 35 streamgages on urban streams in and adjacent to Missouri for estimation of the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban areas of Missouri. A log-Pearson Type-III distribution was fitted to the annual series of peak flow data retrieved from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System. For this report, the flood frequency estimates are expressed in terms of percent annual exceedance probabilities of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, and 0.2. Of the 35 streamgages, 30 are located in Missouri. The remaining five non-Missouri streamgages were added to the dataset to improve the range and applicability of the regression analyses from the streamgage frequency analyses. Ordinary least-squares was used to determine the best set of independent variables for the regression equations. Basin characteristics selected for independent variables into the ordinary least-squares regression analyses were based on theoretical relation to flood flows, literature review of possible basin characteristics, and the ability to measure the basin characteristics using digital datasets and geographic information system technology. Results of the ordinary least-squares were evaluated on the basis of Mallow's Cp statistic, the adjusted coefficient of determination, and the statistical significance of the independent variables. The independent variables of drainage area and percent impervious area were determined to be statistically significant and readily determined from existing digital datasets. The drainage area variable was computed using the best elevation data available, either from a statewide 10-meter grid or high-resolution elevation data from urban areas. The impervious area variable was computed from the National Land Cover Dataset 2001 impervious area dataset. The National Land Cover Dataset 2001 impervious area data for each basin was compared to historical imagery and 7.5-minute topographic maps to verify the national dataset represented the urbanization of the basin at the time streamgage data were collected. Eight streamgages had less urbanization during the period of time streamflow data were collected than was shown on the 2001 dataset. The impervious area values for these eight urban basins were adjusted downward as much as 23 percent to account for the additional urbanization since the streamflow data were collected. Weighted least-squares regression techniques were used to determine the final regression equations for the statewide urban flood-frequency equations. Weighted least-squares techniques improve regression equations by adjusting for different and varying lengths in streamflow records. The final flood-frequency equations for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods for Missouri provide a technique for estimating peak flows on urban streams at gaged and ungaged sites. The applicability of the equations is limited by the range in basin characteristics used to develop the regression equations. The range in drainage area is 0.28 to 189 square miles; range in impervious area is 2.3 to 46.0 percent. Seven of the 35 selected streamgages were used to compare the results of the existing rural and urban equations to the urban equations presented in this report for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability. Results of the comparison indicate that the estimated peak flows for the urban equation in this report ranged from 3 to 52 percent higher than the results from the rural equations. Comparing the estimated urban peak flows from this report to the existing urban equation developed in 1986 indicated the range was 255 percent lower to 10 percent higher. The overall comparison between the current (2010) and 1986 urban equations indicates a reduction in estimated peak flow values for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood.

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Occurrence and sources of Escherichia coli in metropolitan St. Louis streams, October 2004 through September 2007

The occurrence and sources of Escherichia coli (E. coli) , one of several fecal indicator bacteria, in metropolitan St. Louis streams known to receive nonpoint source runoff, occasional discharges from combined and sanitary sewers, and treated wastewater effluent were investigated from October 2004 through September 2007. Three Missouri River sites, five Mississippi River sites, and six small basin tributary stream sites were sampled during base flow and storm events for the presence of E. coli and their sources. E. coli host-source determinations were conducted using local library based genotypic methods. Human fecal contamination in stream samples was additionally confirmed by the presence of Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron , an anaerobic, enteric bacterium with a high occurrence in, and specificity to, humans. Missouri River E. coli densities and loads during base flow were approximately 10 times greater than those in the Mississippi River above its confluence with the Missouri River. Although substantial amounts of E. coli originated from within the study area during base flow and storm events, considerable amounts of E. coli in the Missouri River, as well as in the middle Mississippi River sections downstream from its confluence with the Missouri River, originated in Missouri River reaches upstream from the study area. In lower Mississippi River reaches, bacteria contributions from the numerous combined and sanitary sewer overflows within the study area, as well as contributions from nonpoint source runoff, greatly increased instream E. coli densities. Although other urban factors cannot be discounted, average E. coli densities in streams were strongly correlated with the number of upstream combined and sanitary sewer overflow points, and the percentage of upstream impervious cover. Small basin sites with the greatest number of combined and sanitary sewer overflows (Maline Creek and the River des Peres) had larger E. coli densities, larger loads, and a greater percentage of E. coli attributable to humans than other small basin sites; however, even though small basin E. coli densities typically were much larger than in large river receiving streams, small basins contributed, on average, only a small part (a maximum of 16 percent) of the total E. coli load to larger rivers. On average, approximately one-third of E. coli in metropolitan St. Louis streams was identified as originating from humans. Another one-third of the E. coli was determined to have originated from unidentified sources; dogs and geese contributed lesser amounts, 10 and 20 percent, of the total instream bacteria. Sources of E. coli were largely independent of hydrologic conditions—an indication that sources remained relatively consistent with time.

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Groundwater-flow model and effects of projected groundwater use in the Ozark Plateaus Aquifer System in the vicinity of Greene County, Missouri — 1907-2030

Recent and historical periods of rapid growth have increased the stress on the groundwater resources in the Ozark aquifer in the Greene County, Missouri area. Historical pumpage from the Ozark aquifer has caused a cone of depression beneath Springfield, Missouri. In an effort to ease its dependence on groundwater for supply, the city of Springfield built a pipeline in 1996 to bring water from Stockton Lake to the city. Rapid population growth in the area coupled with the expanding cone of depression raised concern about the sustainability of groundwater as a resource for future use. A groundwater-flow model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Greene County, Missouri, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the Missouri Department of Natural Resources to assess the effect that increased groundwater demand is having on the long-term availability of groundwater in and around Greene County, Missouri. Three hydrogeologic units were represented in the groundwater-flow model: the Springfield Plateau aquifer, the Ozark confining unit, and the Ozark aquifer. The Springfield Plateau aquifer is less than 350 feet thick in the model area and generally is a low yield aquifer suitable only for domestic use. The Ozark aquifer is composed of a more than 900-foot thick sequence of dolomite and sandstone in the model area and is the primary aquifer throughout most of southern Missouri. Wells open to the entire thickness of the Ozark aquifer typically yield 1,000 gallons per minute or more. Between the two aquifers is the Ozark confining unit composed of as much as 98 feet of shale and limestone. Karst features such as sinkholes, springs, caves, and losing streams are present in both aquifers, but the majority of these features occur in the Springfield Plateau aquifer. The solution-enlarged fracture and bedding plane conduits in the karst system, particularly in the Springfield Plateau aquifer, are capable of moving large quantities of groundwater through the aquifer in relatively short periods of time. Pumpage rates in the model area increased from 1,093,268 cubic feet per day in 1962 to 2,693,423 cubic feet per day in 1987 to 4,330,177 cubic feet per day in 2006. Annual precipitation ranged from 25.21 inches in 1953 to 62.45 inches in 1927 from 1915 to 2006 in the model area. Recharge to the model was calculated as 2.53 percent of the annual precipitation and was varied annually. Recharge was distributed over the model area based on land slope and was adjusted in the city limits of Springfield to account for the impervious surface. A groundwater model with annual stress periods from 1907 to 2030 was developed using a transient calibration period from 1987 to 2006 and a prediction period from 2007 to 2030 to simulate flow in the Springfield Plateau aquifer and the Ozark aquifer. For the model area of approximately 2,870 square miles, the model hydrogeologic units and hydraulic properties were discretized into 253 rows, 316 columns, and 3 layers with the layer boundaries crossing hydrogeologic unit boundaries in some areas. The horizontal cell spacing was 1,000 feet by 1,000 feet. The model was calibrated by minimizing the difference between simulated head and observed water levels and simulated and observed flows in rivers and springs. Population and the associated groundwater use were estimated for 12 communities and the unincorporated area of Greene County based on past growth. Each was analyzed individually, and a low and high annual rate of growth relative to the 2006 population was computed for each community or group. Low growth rates ranged from 0.215 percent per year in Springfield to 6.997 percent per year in Rogersville. Total growth from 2006 to 2030 at the low growth rate ranged from 5.2 percent in Springfield to 167.9 percent in Rogersville. High growth rates ranged from 0.236 percent per year in Springfield to 7.345 percent per year in Rogersville. Total growth from 2006 to 2030 at the high growth rate ranged from 5.7 percent in Springfield to 176.3 percent in Rogersville. Response of the flow system to selected hypothetical pumping stresses and recharge conditions was simulated using the calibrated model. Seven hypothetical scenarios were simulated from 2007 to 2030 to test the effects of various stresses on the head in the Ozark aquifer. Hypothetical scenario 1 continued the 2006 pumping rates without change to the end of 2030. Scenario 2 assumed a low population growth rate with a 4-year drought at the beginning of the prediction period. Scenario 3 assumed a low population growth rate with a 4-year drought at the end of the prediction period. Scenario 4 assumed a high population growth rate with a 4-year drought at the beginning of the prediction period. Scenario 5 assumed a high population growth rate with a 4-year drought at the end of the prediction period. Scenario 6 and 7 had one new industrial well installed within the city limits of Springfield and one new industrial well installed about 3.5 miles east of Rogersville. Scenario 6 assumed a low population growth rate and scenario 7 assumed a high population growth rate. Results were compared by examining differences in head at the end of the simulation period. All scenarios examined resulted in potentiometric-surface declines from 2006 levels. Results from scenario 1 indicated that even with no increase in pumping, the potentiometric surface in the Springfield area continued to decline. The maximum decline of approximately 62 feet from the 2006 potentiometric surface occurred in Springfield. The maximum decline from the 2006 potentiometric surface in scenarios 2 and 3 was approximately 203 feet and in scenarios 4 and 5 was approximately 207 feet. The drought occurring at the end of the simulation period tended to broaden the drawdown area relative to the drought at the beginning. Drought timing did not substantially affect the potentiometric surface in the Ozark aquifer except for where the Ozark aquifer was exposed. Although not a substantial difference, the high population growth rate scenarios tended to have larger declines than the low population growth rate scenarios. As in the previous scenarios, little difference was noted between the low and high growth rate in scenario 6 and 7. Scenarios 6 and 7 showed declines of more than 640 feet from the 2006 potentiometric surface at the new well located in Springfield. The drawdown at the new wells decreased relatively quickly with increased distance from the well. Simulated head in the nearby cities of Nixa, Ozark, and Republic was nearly the same for scenarios 2 through 7 and was lower than the head predicted for scenario 1. Results from scenarios 2 through 7 indicate that the potentiometric surface in 2030 near these cities could decline 100 feet or more from the 2006 levels. Because model layers 2 and 3, representing the Ozark confining unit and most of the thickness of the Ozark aquifer, were simulated as confined, drawdown in the wells in the area of the Ozark aquifer that is unconfined or becomes unconfined during the simulation period will likely be under predicted.

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