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Geology topics

Research about Michigan

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Michigan.

At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Empirical methods for detecting regional trends and other spatial expressions in antrim shale gas productivity, with implications for improving resource projections using local nonparametric estimation techniques

The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to 80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast–northwest trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays.

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USGS2011

Influence of body condition on influenza A virus infection in mallard ducks: Experimental infection data

Migrating waterfowl are implicated in the global spread of influenza A viruses (IAVs), and mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) are considered a particularly important IAV reservoir. Prevalence of IAV infection in waterfowl peaks during autumn pre-migration staging and then declines as birds reach wintering areas. Migration is energetically costly and birds often experience declines in body condition that may suppress immune function. We assessed how body condition affects susceptibility to infection, viral shedding and antibody production in wild-caught and captive-bred juvenile mallards challenged with low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) H5N9. Wild mallards (n = 30) were separated into three experimental groups; each manipulated through food availability to a different condition level (-20%, -10%, and normal ±5% original body condition), and captive-bred mallards (n = 10) were maintained at normal condition. We found that wild mallards in normal condition were more susceptible to LPAIV infection, shed higher peak viral loads and shed viral RNA more frequently compared to birds in poor condition. Antibody production did not differ according to condition. We found that wild mallards did not differ from captive-bred mallards in viral intensity and duration of infection, but they did exhibit lower antibody titers and greater variation in viral load. Our findings suggest that reduced body condition negatively influences waterfowl host competence to LPAIV infection. This observation is contradictory to the recently proposed condition-dependent hypothesis, according to which birds in reduced condition would be more susceptible to IAV infection. The mechanisms responsible for reducing host competency among birds in poor condition remain unknown. Our research indicates body condition may influence the maintenance and spread of LPAIV by migrating waterfowl.

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USGS2011

Science as a fundamental framework for shaping policy discussions regarding the use of groundwater in the State of Michigan: A case study

The availability and use of freshwater is a growing concern in the United States and around the globe. Despite apparently abundant water resources, several conflicts over water use have emerged in the Great Lakes region and the State of Michigan. These conflicts resulted in state legislation that both addresses water withdrawal from the Great Lakes Basin and requires the State of Michigan to begin a process to address the sustainability of water resources. The former resulted in Michigan's support of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Water Resources Compact, whereas the latter resulted in the formation of a Groundwater Conservation Advisory Council. This paper focuses primarily on the Council, describing its formation, and the products it generated. In particular, we focus on the development of indicators of sustainable use of water, the creation of a water withdrawal assessment process to determine if a proposed withdrawal will create an adverse resource impact in the state, and how the lessons learned in Michigan may be applied to other units of government addressing similar issues. Attention is also given to the Compact, as it provides important context for the Council's formation.

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USGS2011

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

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USGS2011

Maximum length and age of round gobies ( Apollonia melanostomus ) in Lake Huron

The round goby ( Apollonia [Neogobius] melanostomus ,) an invasive species, is generally smaller and shorter-lived in the Great Lakes than it native range. We examined 30 large male round gobies from trawl samples taken in Lake Huron and used otoliths to determine their age and back-calculated growth. Standard lengths ranged from 76 to 97 mm, and the oldest fish were age-5. Low water temperatures in nearshore regions of Lake Huron might cause slow growth and late maturation.

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USGS2011

Bed morphology, flow structure, and sediment transport at the outlet of Lake Huron and in the upper St. Clair River

An integrated multibeam echo sounder and acoustic Doppler current profiler field survey was conducted in July 2008 to investigate the morphodynamics of the St. Clair River at the outlet of Lake Huron. The principal morphological features of the upper St. Clair River included flow-transverse bedforms that appear weakly mobile, erosive bedforms in cohesive muds, thin non-cohesive veneers of weakly mobile sediment that cover an underlying cohesive (till or glacio-lacustrine) surface, and vegetation that covers the bed. The flow was characterized by acceleration as the banks constrict from Lake Huron into the St. Clair River, an approximately 1500-m long region of flow separation downstream from the Blue Water Bridge, and secondary flow connected to: i) channel curvature; ii) forcing of the flow by local bed topography, and iii) flow wakes in the lee side of ship wrecks. Nearshore, sand-sized, sediment from Lake Huron was capable of being transported into, and principally along, the banks of the upper St. Clair River by the measured flow. A comparison of bathymetric surveys conducted in 2007 and 2008 identifies that the gravel bed does undergo slow downstream movement, but that this movement does not appear to be generated by the mean flow, and could possibly be caused by ship-propeller-induced turbulence. The study results suggest that the measured mean flow and dredging within the channel have not produced major scour of the upper St. Clair River and that the recent fall in the level of Lake Huron is unlikely to have been caused by these mechanisms.

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USGS2011

Mid Holocene lake level and shoreline behavior during the Nipissing phase of the upper Great Lakes at Alpena, Michigan, USA

The Nipissing phase was the last pre-modern high-water stage of the upper Great Lakes. Represented as either a one- or two-peak highstand, the Nipissing occurred following a long-term lake-level rise. This transgression was primarily an erosional event with only the final stage of the transgression preserved as barriers, spits, and strandplains of beach ridges. South of Alpena, Michigan, mid to late Holocene coastal deposits occur as a strandplain between Devils Lake and Lake Huron. The landward part of this strandplain is a higher elevation platform that formed during the final stage of lake-level rise to the Nipissing peak. The pre-Nipissing shoreline transgressed over Devils Lake lagoonal deposits from 6.4 to 6.1 ka. The first beach ridge formed ~ 6 ka, and then the shoreline advanced toward Lake Huron, producing beach ridges about every 70 years. This depositional regression produced a slightly thickening wedge of sediment during a lake-level rise that formed 20 beach ridges. The rise ended at 4.5 ka at the Nipissing peak. This peak was short-lived, as lake level fell > 4 m during the following 500 years. During this lake-level rise and subsequent fall, the shoreline underwent several forms of shoreline behavior, including erosional transgression, aggradation, depositional transgression, depositional regression, and forced regression. Other upper Great Lakes Nipissing platforms indicate that the lake-level change observed at Alpena of a rapid pre-Nipissing lake-level rise followed by a slower rise to the Nipissing peak, and a post-Nipissing rapid lake-level fall is representative of mid Holocene lake level in the upper Great Lakes.

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USGS2011

Innate immune response development in nestling tree swallows

We tracked the development of innate immunity in nestling Tree Swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor ) and compared it to that of adults using blood drawn from nestlings during days 6, 12, and 18 of the ∼20-day nestling period and from adults. Innate immunity was characterized using an in vitro assay of the ability of whole blood to kill Escherichia coli . The ability of whole blood to kill E. coli increased as nestlings matured. Neither this component of innate immunity nor right wing chord length on day18 were as developed as in adults indicating that development of the innate immune system and growth both continued after fledging. Narrow sense heritability analyses suggest that females with strong immune responses produced nestlings with strong immune responses. These data suggest nestling Tree Swallows allocated sufficient energy to support rapid growth to enable fledging by day 18, but that further development of innate immunity occurred post-fledging.

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USGS2011

Predicting lake trophic state by relating Secchi-disk transparency measurements to Landsat-satellite imagery for Michigan inland lakes, 2003-05 and 2007-08

Inland lakes are an important economic and environmental resource for Michigan. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Michigan Department of Natural Resources and Environment have been cooperatively monitoring the quality of selected lakes in Michigan through the Lake Water Quality Assessment program. Sampling for this program began in 2001; by 2010, 730 of Michigan’s 11,000 inland lakes are expected to have been sampled once. Volunteers coordinated by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources and Environment began sampling lakes in 1974 and continue to sample (in 2010) approximately 250 inland lakes each year through the Michigan Cooperative Lakes Monitoring Program. Despite these sampling efforts, it still is impossible to physically collect measurements for all Michigan inland lakes; however, Landsat-satellite imagery has been used successfully in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and elsewhere to predict the trophic state of unsampled inland lakes greater than 20 acres by producing regression equations relating in-place Secchi-disk measurements to Landsat bands. This study tested three alternatives to methods previously used in Michigan to improve results for predicted statewide Trophic State Index (TSI) computed from Secchi-disk transparency (TSI (SDT)). The alternative methods were used on 14 Landsat-satellite scenes with statewide TSI (SDT) for two time periods (2003– 05 and 2007–08). Specifically, the methods were (1) satellitedata processing techniques to remove areas affected by clouds, cloud shadows, haze, shoreline, and dense vegetation for inland lakes greater than 20 acres in Michigan; (2) comparison of the previous method for producing a single open-water predicted TSI (SDT) value (which was based on an area of interest (AOI) and lake-average approach) to an alternative Gethist method for identifying open-water areas in inland lakes (which follows the initial satellite-data processing and targets the darkest pixels, representing the deepest water, before regression equations are created); and (3) checking to see whether the predicted TSI (SDT) values compared well between two regression equations, one previously used in Michigan and an alternative equation from the hydrologic literature. The combination of improved satellite-data processing techniques and the Gethist method to identify open-water areas in inland lakes during 2003–05 and 2007–08 provided a stronger relation and statistical significance between predicted TSI (SDT) and measured TSI than did the AOI lake-average method; differences in results for the two methods were significant at the 99-percent confidence level. With regard to the comparison of the regression equations, there were no statistically significant differences at the 95-percent confidence level between results from the two equations. The previously used equation, in combination with the Gethist method, yielded coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values of 0.71 and 0.77 for the periods 2003–05 and 2007–08, respectively. The alternative equation, in combination with the Gethist method, yielded R 2 values of 0.74 and 0.75 for 2003–05 and 2007–08, respectively. Predicted TSI (SDT) and measured TSI (SDT) values for lakes used in the regression equations compared well, with R 2 values of 0.95 and 0.96 for predicted TSI (SDT) for 2003–05 and 2007–08, respectively. The R 2 values for statewide predicted TSI (SDT) for all inland lakes with available open-water areas for 2003–05 and 2007–08 were 0.91 and 0.93, respectively. Although the two equations predicted similar trophic-state classes, the alternative equation is planned to be used for future prediction of TSI (SDT) values for Michigan inland lakes, to promote consistency in comparing predicted values between States and for potential use in trend analysis.

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USGS2011

Construction of shipping channels in the Detroit River: History and environmental consequences

The Detroit River is one of the most biologically diverse areas in the Great Lakes basin. It has been an important international shipping route since the 1820s and is one of the busiest navigation centers in the United States. Historically, it supported one of the most profitable Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) commercial fisheries in the Great Lakes. Since 1874, the lower Detroit River has been systematically and extensively modified, by construction of deepwater channels, to facilitate commercial shipping. Large-scale dredging, disposal of dredge spoils, and construction of water-level compensating works has greatly altered channel morphology and flow dynamics of the river, disrupting ecological function and fishery productivity of the river and influencing Great Lakes water levels. From 1874 to 1968, major construction projects created 96.5 kilometers (60 miles) of shipping channels, removed over 46,200,000 m 3 of material, covered 4,050 hectares (40.5 square kilometers) of river bottom with dredge spoils, and built 85 hectares of above-waterline compensating works at a total cost of US$283 million. Interest by industries and government agencies to develop the river further for shipping is high and increasing. Historically, as environmental protection agencies were created, construction impacts on natural resources were increasingly addressed during the planning process and, in some cases, assessments of these impacts greatly altered or halted proposed construction projects. Careful planning of future shipping-channel construction and maintenance projects, including a thorough analysis of the expected environmental impacts, could greatly reduce financial costs and ecological damages as compared to past shipping-channel construction projects.

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USGS2011

Exploring life history characteristics of naturalized versus stocked chinook

Naturalization of stocked populations can result in divergence of life-history traits from domestic stocks. Lake Michigan supports popular Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Salmon fisheries that have been sustained by stocking since the late 1960s. Natural recruitment of Chinook Salmon in Lake Michigan has increased in the last few decades and currently contributes over 50% of Chinook Salmon recruits. Samples collected as part of a lakewide mass-marking of Lake Michigan Chinook Salmon, starting with the 2006 year class, indicated hatchery fish average 30-mm longer and 130 grams heavier than naturalized fish at age-1. We hypothesized that selective forces differ for naturalized and hatchery populations resulting in divergent life-history characteristics with implications for Chinook Salmon population production and the Lake Michigan fishery. Specific life-history metrics of interest include: age- and size- at maturity, spawning run timing, fecundity, and sex ratio. Objectives: We evaluated life history characteristics between naturally recruited and stocked Chinook Salmon in Lake Michigan to help discern potential changes resulting from naturalization and implications for fisheries. A. Conduct an analysis of historical data to determine if life-history parameters changed through time as the Chinook Salmon population became increasingly naturalized. B. Conduct a two-year field study of naturalized and hatchery stocked Chinook Salmon spawning populations to quantify differences in life-history metrics of adults. C. Determine if reproductive potential differs between naturalized and hatchery stocked Chinook salmon by measuring egg thiamine levels.

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USGS2010

Transient hydrogeological controls on the chemistry of a seepage lake

A solute mass balance method was used to estimate groundwater inflow and outflow rates for Nevins Lake, Michigan, a seepage lake in the upper peninsula that historically has shown extremely variable water chemistry compared with most other seepage lakes. A 4-year study (1989–1992) of the hydrology and geochemistry of Nevins Lake and its contiguous groundwater system revealed that changes in the mass of dissolved solutes are the result of annual hydraulic gradient reversals. A pronounced acidification of Nevins Lake from 1986 to 1988 was likely caused by drought-induced diminished groundwater inflow rates. In this study, dissolved calcium (the major cation in water of Nevins Lake, groundwater, and precipitation) was used for estimating mass flow rates. During the 1989–1992 period, Nevins Lake showed a reproducible annual cycle in calcium mass. Immediately following spring snowmelt and the resulting hydraulic gradient reversal, the mass of dissolved calcium in the lake increases rapidly, and then it decreases steadily throughout the summer and early fall, at which time the lake becomes hydraulically mounded and receives no groundwater inflow. Groundwater flow rates estimated by the solute mass balance method are sensitive to assumed solute concentrations in discharging groundwater. Pore water samples from the lake bed are shown to be more representative of water discharging to the lake than are samples from piezometers near the lake shore, but spatial and temporal variability in pore water chemistry must be considered. Stable isotope analyses ( 18 O and 2 H) of lake water, groundwater, and pore water samples show that water discharging to Nevins Lake in the spring is entirely recycled lake water, and no groundwater derived from terrestrial recharge reaches the lake. The conceptual model formulated during this study linking lake chemistry and the contiguous groundwater system and general groundwater flow patterns surrounding highly transient lake systems are likely transferable to other similar systems.

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USGS2010

Spatial and temporal dynamics of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) health indicators: linking individual-based indicators to a management-relevant endpoint

We examined the spatial and temporal dynamics of health indicators in four lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) stocks located in northern lakes Michigan and Huron from 2003 to 2006. The specific objectives were to (1) quantify spatial and temporal variability in health indicators; (2) examine relationships among nutritional indicators and stock-specific spatial and temporal dynamics of pathogen prevalence and intensity of infection; and (3) examine relationships between indicators measured on individual fish and stock-specific estimates of natural mortality. The percent of the total variation attributed to spatial and temporal sources varied greatly depending on the health indicator examined. The most notable pattern was a downward trend in the concentration of highly unsaturated fatty acids (HUFAs), observed in all stocks, in the polar lipid fraction of lake whitefish dorsal muscle tissue over the three study years. Variation among stocks and years for some indicators were correlated with the prevalence and intensity of the swimbladder nematode Cystidicola farionis , suggesting that our measures of fish health were related, at some level, with disease dynamics. We did not find relationships between spatial patterns in fish health indicators and estimates of natural mortality rates for the stocks. Our research highlights the complexity of the interactions between fish nutritional status, disease dynamics, and natural mortality in wild fish populations. Additional research that identifies thresholds of health indicators, below (or above) which survival may be reduced, will greatly help in understanding the relationship between indicators measured on individual fish and potential population-level effects.

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USGS2010

Diet of lake trout and burbot in northern Lake Michigan during spring: Evidence of ecological interaction

We used analyses of burbot ( Lota lota ) and lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) diets taken during spring gill-net surveys in northern Lake Michigan in 2006-2008 to investigate the potential for competition and predator-prey interactions between these two species. We also compared our results to historical data from 1932. During 2006-2008, lake trout diet consisted mainly of alewives ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) and rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), whereas burbot utilized a much wider prey base including round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), rainbow smelt, alewives, and sculpins. Using the Schoener's diet overlap index, we found a higher potential for interspecific competition in 1932 than in 2006-2008, though diet overlap was not significant in either time period. No evidence of cannibalism by lake trout or lake trout predation on burbot was found in either time period. In 2006-2008, however, lake trout composed 5.4% (by weight) of burbot diet. To determine whether this predation could be having an impact on lake trout rehabilitation efforts in northern Lake Michigan, we developed a bioenergetic-based consumption estimate for burbot on Boulder Reef (a representative reef within the Northern Refuge) and found that burbot alone can consume a considerable proportion of the yearling lake trout stocked annually, depending on burbot density. Overall, we conclude that predation, rather than competition, is the more important ecological interaction between burbot and lake trout, and burbot predation may be contributing to the failed lake trout rehabilitation efforts in Lake Michigan.

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USGS2010

Flood-inundation maps for a 15-mile reach of the Kalamazoo River from Marshall to Battle Creek, Michigan

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 15-mile reach of the Kalamazoo River from Marshall to Battle Creek, Michigan, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to help guide remediation efforts following a crude-oil spill on July 25, 2010. The spill happened on Talmadge Creek, a tributary of the Kalamazoo River near Marshall, during a flood. The floodwaters transported the spilled oil down the Kalamazoo River and deposited oil in impoundments and on the surfaces of islands and flood plains. Six flood-inundation maps were constructed corresponding to the flood stage (884.09 feet) coincident with the oil spill on July 25, 2010, as well as for floods with annual exceedance probabilities of 0.2, 1, 2, 4, and 10 percent. Streamflow at the USGS streamgage at Marshall, Michigan (USGS site ID 04103500), was used to calculate the flood probabilities. From August 13 to 18, 2010, 35 channel cross sections, 17 bridges and 1 dam were surveyed. These data were used to construct a water-surface profile for the July 25, 2010, flood by use of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The calibrated model was used to estimate water-surface profiles for other flood probabilities. The resulting six flood-inundation maps were created with a geographic information system by combining flood profiles with a 1.2-foot vertical and 10-foot horizontal resolution digital elevation model derived from Light Detection and Ranging data.

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USGS2010

Antibiotic, pharmaceutical, and wastewater-compound data for Michigan, 1998-2005

Beginning in the late 1990's, the U.S. Geological Survey began to develop analytical methods to detect, at concentrations less than 1 microgram per liter (ug/L), emerging water contaminants such as pharmaceuticals, personal-care chemicals, and a variety of other chemicals associated with various human and animal sources. During 1998-2005, the U.S. Geological Survey analyzed the following Michigan water samples: 41 samples for antibiotic compounds, 28 samples for pharmaceutical compounds, 46 unfiltered samples for wastewater compounds (dissolved and suspended compounds), and 113 filtered samples for wastewater compounds (dissolved constituents only). The purpose of this report is to summarize the status of emerging contaminants in Michigan waters based on data from several different project-specific sample-collection efforts in Michigan during an 8-year period. During the course of the 8-year sampling effort, antibiotics were determined at 20 surface-water sites and 2 groundwater sites, pharmaceuticals were determined at 11 surface-water sites, wastewater compounds in unfiltered water were determined at 31 surface-water sites, and wastewater compounds in filtered water were determined at 40 surface-water and 4 groundwater sites. Some sites were visited only once, but others were visited multiple times. A variety of quality-assurance samples also were collected. This report describes the analytical methods used, describes the variations in analytical methods and reporting levels during the 8-year period, and summarizes all data using current (2009) reporting criteria. Very few chemicals were detected at concentrations greater than current laboratory reporting levels, which currently vary from a low of 0.005 ug/L for some antibiotics to 5 ug/L for some wastewater compounds. Nevertheless, 10 of 51 chemicals in the antibiotics analysis, 9 of 14 chemicals in the pharmaceuticals analysis, 34 of 67 chemicals in the unfiltered-wastewater analysis, and 56 of 62 chemicals in the filtered-wastewater analysis were detected. Antibiotics were detected at 7 of 20 tested surface-water sites, but none were detected in 2 groundwater samples. Pharmaceuticals were detected at 7 of 11 surface-water sites. Wastewater compounds were detected at 25 of 31 sites for which unfiltered water samples were analyzed and at least once at all 40 surface-water sites and all 4 groundwater sites for which filtered water samples were analyzed. Overall, the chemicals detected most frequently in Michigan waters were similar to those reported frequently in other studies nationwide. Patterns of chemical detections were site specific and appear to be related to local sources, overall land use, and hydrologic conditions at the time of sampling. Field-blank results provide important information for the design of future sampling programs in Michigan and demonstrate the need for careful field-study design. Field-replicate results indicated substantial confidence regarding the presence or absence of the many chemicals tested. Overall, data reported herein indicate that a wide array of antibiotic, pharmaceutical, and organic wastewater compounds occur in Michigan waters. Patterns of occurrence, with respect to hydrologic, land use, and source variables, generally appear to be similar for Michigan as for other sampled waters across the United States. The data reported herein can serve as a basis for future studies in Michigan.

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USGS2010

Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: A guide to using PEST for model-parameter and predictive-uncertainty analysis

Analysis of the uncertainty associated with parameters used by a numerical model, and with predictions that depend on those parameters, is fundamental to the use of modeling in support of decisionmaking. Unfortunately, predictive uncertainty analysis with regard to models can be very computationally demanding, due in part to complex constraints on parameters that arise from expert knowledge of system properties on the one hand (knowledge constraints) and from the necessity for the model parameters to assume values that allow the model to reproduce historical system behavior on the other hand (calibration constraints). Enforcement of knowledge and calibration constraints on parameters used by a model does not eliminate the uncertainty in those parameters. In fact, in many cases, enforcement of calibration constraints simply reduces the uncertainties associated with a number of broad-scale combinations of model parameters that collectively describe spatially averaged system properties. The uncertainties associated with other combinations of parameters, especially those that pertain to small-scale parameter heterogeneity, may not be reduced through the calibration process. To the extent that a prediction depends on system-property detail, its postcalibration variability may be reduced very little, if at all, by applying calibration constraints; knowledge constraints remain the only limits on the variability of predictions that depend on such detail. Regrettably, in many common modeling applications, these constraints are weak. Though the PEST software suite was initially developed as a tool for model calibration, recent developments have focused on the evaluation of model-parameter and predictive uncertainty. As a complement to functionality that it provides for highly parameterized inversion (calibration) by means of formal mathematical regularization techniques, the PEST suite provides utilities for linear and nonlinear error-variance and uncertainty analysis in these highly parameterized modeling contexts. Availability of these utilities is particularly important because, in many cases, a significant proportion of the uncertainty associated with model parameters-and the predictions that depend on them-arises from differences between the complex properties of the real world and the simplified representation of those properties that is expressed by the calibrated model. This report is intended to guide intermediate to advanced modelers in the use of capabilities available with the PEST suite of programs for evaluating model predictive error and uncertainty. A brief theoretical background is presented on sources of parameter and predictive uncertainty and on the means for evaluating this uncertainty. Applications of PEST tools are then discussed for overdetermined and underdetermined problems, both linear and nonlinear. PEST tools for calculating contributions to model predictive uncertainty, as well as optimization of data acquisition for reducing parameter and predictive uncertainty, are presented. The appendixes list the relevant PEST variables, files, and utilities required for the analyses described in the document.

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