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Research about Hawaii

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Hawaii.

At least 361 records · Page 20Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Deep long-period earthquakes generated by second boiling beneath Mauna Kea volcano

Deep long-period earthquakes (DLPs) are an enigmatic type of volcanic seismicity that sometimes precedes eruptions but mostly occurs at quiescent volcanoes. These earthquakes are depleted in high-frequency content and typically occur near the base of the crust. We observed a near-periodic, long- lived sequence of more than one million DLPs in the past 19 years beneath the dormant postshield Mauna Kea volcano in Hawai‘i. We argue that this DLP sequence was caused by repeated pressurization of volatiles exsolved through crystallization of cooling magma stalled beneath the crust. This “second boiling” of magma is a well-known process but has not previously been linked to DLP activity. Our observations suggest that, rather than portending eruptions, global DLP activity may more commonly be indicative of stagnant, cooling magma.

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USGS2020

Two ensemble approaches for forecasting sulfur dioxide concentrations from Kīlauea volcano

Kīlauea volcano, located on the island of Hawaii, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. It was in a state of nearly continuous eruption from 1983 to 2018 with copious emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) that affected public health, agriculture, and infrastructure over large portions of the island. Since 2010, the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa provides publicly available vog forecasts that began in 2010 to aid in the mitigation of volcanic smog (or “vog”) as a hazard. In September 2017, the forecast system began to produce operational ensemble forecasts. The months that preceded Kīlauea’s historic lower east rift zone eruption of 2018 provide an opportunity to evaluate the newly implemented air quality ensemble prediction system and compare it another approach to the generation of ensemble members. One of the two approaches generates perturbations in the wind field while the other perturbs the sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission rate from the volcano. This comparison has implications for the limits of forecast predictability under the particularly dynamic conditions at Kīlauea volcano. We show that for ensemble forecasts of SO 2 generated under these conditions, the uncertainty associated with the SO 2 emission rate approaches that of the uncertainty in the wind field. However, the inclusion of a fluctuating SO 2 emission rate has the potential to improve the prediction of the changes in air quality downwind of the volcano with suitable postprocessing.

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USGS2020

Cytology reveals diverse cell morphotypes and cellin-cell interactions in normal collector sea urchins Tripneustes gratilla

Echinoderms such as sea urchins are important in marine ecosystems, particularly as grazers, and unhealthy sea urchins can have important ecological implications. For instance, unexplained mortalities of Diadema antillarum in the Caribbean were followed by algal overgrowth and subsequent collapse of coral reef ecosystems. Unfortunately, few tools exist to evaluate echinoderm health, making management of mortalities or other health issues problematic. Hematology is often used to assess health in many animal groups, including invertebrates, but is seldom applied to echinoderms. We used a standard gravitometric technique to concentrate fixed coelomocytes from the collector sea urchin Tripneustes gratilla onto microscope slides, permitting staining and enumeration. Using Romanowsky stain and electron microscopy to visualize cell details, we found that urchin cells could be partitioned into different morphotypes. Specifically, we enumerated phagocytes, phagocytes with perinuclear cytoplasmic dots, vibratile cells, colorless spherule cells, red spherule cells, and red spherule cells with pink granules. We also saw cell-in-cell interactions characterized by phagocytes apparently phagocytizing mainly the motile cells including red spherule cells, colorless spherule cells, and vibratile cells disproportionate to underlying populations of circulating cells. Cell-in-cell interactions were seen in 71% of sea urchins, but comprised <1% of circulating cells. Finally, about 40% of sea urchins had circulating phagocytes that were apparently phagocytizing spicules. The coelomic fluid collection and slide preparation methods described here are simple, field portable, and might be a useful complementary tool for assessing health of other marine invertebrates, revealing heretofore unknown physiological phenomena in this animal group.

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USGS2020

Post-release survival of fallout Newell’s Shearwater fledglings from a rescue and rehabilitation program on Kauai, Hawaii

Light attraction impacts nocturnally active fledgling seabirds worldwide and is a particularly acute problem on Kaua‘i (the northern-most island in the main Hawaiian Island archipelago) for the Critically Endangered Newell’s shearwater Puffinus newelli . The Save Our Shearwaters (SOS) program was created in 1979 to address this issue and to date has recovered and released to sea more than 30500 fledglings. Although the value of the program for animal welfare is clear, as birds cannot simply be left to die, no evaluation exists to inform post-release survival. We used satellite transmitters to track 38 fledglings released by SOS and compared their survival rates (assessed by tag transmission duration) to those of 12 chicks that fledged naturally from the mountains of Kaua‘i. Wild fledglings transmitted longer than SOS birds, and SOS birds with longer rehabilitation periods transmitted for a shorter duration than birds released immediately or rehabilitated for only 1 d. Although transmitter durations from grounded fledglings were shorter (indicating impacts to survivorship), some SOS birds did survive and dispersed out to sea. All surviving birds (wild and SOS) traveled more than 2000 km to the southwest of Kaua‘i, where they concentrated mostly in the North Pacific Equatorial Countercurrent Province, revealing a large-scale annual post-breeding aggregation zone for fledgling Newell’s shearwaters. While there was reduced survival among birds undergoing rehabilitation, SOS remains an important contribution toward the conservation of Newell’s shearwater because a proportion of released birds do indeed survive. However, light attraction, the root cause of fallout, remains a serious unresolved issue on Kaua’i.

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USGS2020

Habitat affinities and at-sea ranging behaviors among main Hawaiian Island seabirds: Breeding seabird telemetry, 2013–2016

Recent Hawaiʻi state clean energy policy mandates and federal interest in developing offshore renewable energy resources have prompted unsolicited lease requests for offshore wind energy infrastructure (OWEI) to be located in ocean waters off Hawaiʻi. This study describing at-sea ranging behaviors for five seabirds was intended to provide new information on Hawaiian breeding seabird distribution at sea, habitat utilization, and ranging behaviors within near-island waters and throughout outer continental shelf (OCS) waters surrounding the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). We also estimate the percentage of time the five study species spent flying at altitudes equivalent to an expected rotor-swept-zone (RSZ; 30–194 m) for an offshore wind turbine and discuss potential collision risk from OWEI to the seabirds studied here. The MHI supports important seabird breeding populations and individual seabirds can now be equipped with a wide-variety of data loggers and location tracking devices that can provide complex, high-resolution information on movement patterns at sea. In this study, we used GPS loggers and temperature-depth-recorders (TDRs) to examine the at-sea distributions and ranging behaviors of five abundantly breeding species in the MHI: Red-tailed Tropicbird, Laysan Albatross, Wedge-tailed Shearwater, Brown Booby, and Red-footed Booby. We tracked these breeding seabirds from 14 different sites throughout the MHI; study colonies were located on the main islands of Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, and on associated islets. We used the Residence in Space and Time (RST) algorithm to classify behavior into resting, transiting, and searching/foraging (Torres et al. 2017). We used GPS altitude measurements to examine species-specific flight height and to estimate time spent flying in the RSZ. We mapped rediscretized tracking data for seabirds at each study colony according to behavioral class and trip type (when applicable) using kernel density estimates. During 2014–2016, we obtained GPS and TDR data from 59 and 34 Red-tailed Tropicbirds, respectively. Taken together, individuals revealed a bimodal (short- [~3 h, <100 km range] and long- [>3 d, >800 km range]) trip foraging strategy. While ranging at sea, we estimated that Red-tailed Tropicbirds spend 70.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 70.1–71.0%) of flight time in the RSZ. TDR data for tropicbirds was noisy and we could not reliably identify dives. During 2014 and 2016, we obtained GPS data from 35 Laysan Albatrosses nesting on Kauaʻi and Oʻahu. Individuals during the mid- to late-chick rearing period engaged in a bimodal short- (<6 d, <400 km range) and long- (>6 d, >2,000 km range) trip foraging strategy. While ranging at sea, we estimated that Laysan Albatrosses spend 2.57% (95% CI 2.50–2.64%) of flight time in the RSZ. During 2013–2015, we obtained GPS and TDR data from 313 and 55 Wedge-tailed Shearwaters, respectively. Considering all the data together, individuals revealed a multi-modal trip duration foraging strategy consisting of intra-day (<24 h, <100 km range), short (<4 d, ~200 km range), and long (>4 d, ~100–400 km range) trips. While ranging at sea, we estimated that Wedge-tailed Shearwaters spend 5.20% (95% CI 5.13–5.27%) of flight time in the RSZ. Wedge-tailed Shearwaters dove to a mean (± SD) depth of 1.78 ± 1.35 m (median = 1.38 m); the deepest dive recorded was to 10.06 m. The mean dive duration for Wedge-tailed Shearwaters was 3.12 ± 3.44 s (median = 1.80 s). During 2014–2015, we obtained GPS and TDR data from 42 and 37 Brown Boobies, respectively. Almost all foraging trips (97%) were single-day trips and we did not detect any bimodality in the distribution of single-day trip durations. Brown Boobies foraged relatively close to their colony (<60 km range) and focused their at-sea use in nearshore, coastal waters off Kauaʻi and Niʻihau. While foraging at sea, we estimated that Brown Boobies spend 3.41% (95% CI 3.16–3.67%) of flight time in the RSZ

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USGS2020

Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus semotus) acoustic monitoring at Hawaii Army National Guard (HIARNG) installations statewide

Acoustic sampling for occurrence of the endangered Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus semotus) was conducted at 18 “long-term” acoustic monitoring stations on 12 Hawai‘i Army National Guard (HIARNG) installations across the islands of Hawai‘i, Maui, Moloka‘i, O‘ahu, and Kaua‘i between 2012 and 2018. Bats were confirmed as present at 10 of these installations: Kealakekua Armory, Keaukaha Military Reservation (KMR), Hanapēpe Armory, Kekaha Firing Range (KFR), Pu‘unēnē Training Facility, Ukumehame Firing Range (UFR), Kaunakakai Armory, Bellows Regional Training Institute, Kalaeloa, Barber’s Point, and the 487th Military Parking Facility, Wahiawā. Seasonal frequency of bat detection was similar to previous acoustic studies for the islands of Hawai‘i, Maui, and O‘ahu. Hawaiian hoary bats were recorded at HIARNG installations during periods of pregnancy, lactation, and pup fledging. Our acoustic sampling did not record bat vocalizations at Fort Ruger and Waiawa Armory. Foraging activity was observed at nine acoustic monitoring stations on the islands of Hawai‘i, Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui. No foraging activity was observed on Moloka‘i and a single station on O‘ahu recorded one feeding buzz in September 2017 at Kalaeloa, Barber’s Point. Within-night detections showed bat activity was mostly confined to the first six hours of the night but was also variable among stations. In addition to long-term bat acoustic monitoring at HIARNG installations, Hawaiian hoary bat insect prey sampling with paired acoustic monitoring was conducted at KMR on Hawai‘i Island from May through August 2018. Insect abundance and bat activity were sampled within areas where goats and sheep were used to control weeds to determine if grazing by these ungulates attract and support potential prey for the insectivorous Hawaiian hoary bat. The assessment focused on types of flies that are often associated with livestock (muscoid flies, including house flies [Muscidae], blow flies [Calliphoridae], flesh flies [Sarcophagidae], and biting midges [Ceratopogonidae]), and moths that may be impacted by changes in the availability of grass. Insect abundance was found to vary in both space and time across the study area, with numbers of muscoid flies and biting midges increasing in the presence of livestock at some stations. Although these insects appeared to respond to livestock grazing in some instances, we did not find statistically significant responses in bat foraging as measured by echolocation activity between grazed stations and the ungrazed reference station. Thus, we found no evidence that suggested bats are drawn to foraging resources in grazed areas. This result may be influenced by several factors, including the size of Hawaiian hoary bat foraging ranges compared to the scale of study area, the type of ungulate and their dung, and the timing of insect activity. Hawaiian hoary bats use KMR and forage seasonally as evidenced by long-term acoustic studies and their presence in the ungulate grazing areas; however, the relatively small size of the ungulate herd and the area that they graze may not be able to support enough prey to have a significant influence on bat foraging rates.

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USGS2020

Local to landscape-level controls of water fluxes through Hawaiian forests: Effects of invasive animals and plants on soil infiltration capacity across substrate and moisture gradients

Given the potential effect of invasive plants and animals to water fluxes through forests, the invasive-driven degradation of native ecosystems is a topic of great concern for many downstream land and water managers. The infiltration rate determines the partitioning between runoff and infiltration into soil in Hawaiian forests and beyond. Thus, to explore the ecohydrological effects of plant and animal invasion in mesic and wet forests in Hawaii, we measured soil infiltration capacity in multiple fenced (i.e., ungulate-free)/unfenced and native/invaded forest sites along moisture and substrate age gradients across the islands of Hawai‘i and Kaua‘i. We also characterized forest composition and structure and soil characteristics at these sites to assess the direct and vegetation-mediated impacts of invasive species on infiltration capacity. Infiltration capacity is highly variable across forested sites and the wider landscape. Much of this variability is determined by a complex set of soil, vegetation, and disturbance factors that affect infiltration capacity at the immediate surrounding of measurement plots. Consequently, the effect of any given factor can be masked by variability in other factors. However, by controlling for variability in soil and vegetation conditions at a local plot level, we found that the presence of invasive species in forests has complex and sometimes non-intuitive effects on infiltration. Our final models showed that invasive ungulates negatively affect soil infiltration capacity consistently across the wide moisture and substrate age gradients considered. Additionally, because several soil characteristics known to be affected by ungulates were associated with local infiltration rates (e.g., soil organic matter, bare soil cover, soil depth), the long-term secondary effects of high ungulate densities in Hawaiian forests may be higher than effects observed in this study. These results provide clear evidence for land managers that ungulate control efforts likely improve ecohydrologic function to mesic and wet forest systems critical to protecting downstream and nearshore resources and maintaining groundwater recharge. Compared to ungulate effects, the effect of invasive plants on water infiltration capacity in Hawaiian forests appeared much more complex. In general, elements of forest structure including increased canopy, understory and floor cover, greater presence of large roots, and lower grass and bare soil covers were positively associated with water infiltration. Whether native or not, a plant species’ potential to alter infiltration rates in Hawaiian forests was likely to depend on its physiognomy and how it affects forest community structure. For instance, while the cover of native dominant tree ‘ōhi‘a, Metrosideros polymorpha, was found to be positively associated with infiltration capacity (perhaps as an indicator of overall forest integrity), invasive Himalayan ginger, Hedychium gardnerianum, was also positively correlated with infiltration capacity, possibly due to preferential flow channels created by the presence of large root mats. Few studies have conducted comprehensive integrated ecological and hydrological sampling in forests of high conservation value. While we show there are large benefits to understanding how conservation efforts may help shape water fluxes, we also found that the commonly used study design for infiltration studies used here and elsewhere (i.e., adjacent paired sites) could be modified to provide more accurate effects of invasion in future studies for ecosystems in Hawaii and beyond.

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USGS2020

Use of whole blood samples preserved in DNA lysis buffer for serological detection of avian malaria in Hawaiian forest birds

Recent detections of avian malarial parasites in native and non-native forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge and reports of epidemic transmission of the disease in high elevation habitats as well as controversy over accuracy of the PCR (polymerase chain reaction) diagnostic test that was being used led to a request by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to see if existing blood samples that were preserved in a DNA lysis buffer could be used for independent confirmation of the findings with antibody based serological methods. The primary objective of this study was to test whether some DNA buffers used for preservation of blood samples cause denaturation and loss of antigenicity of antibody molecules. If the buffer does not destroy antigenicity of these molecules, then the samples can be used in serological assays to provide an independent assessment of the accuracy of PCR tests.

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USGS2020

2018 Kaua'i forest bird population estimates and trends

Kaua‘i's native forest birds have experienced steep declines since the beginning of systematic surveys in 1981, and declines have accelerated in recent decades. This report details the analysis of the most recent surveys conducted in 2018. Incorporating the new survey results, long-term trends continue to show sharp declines for all native honeycreeper species with the exception of ‘apapane (Himatione sanguinea), which has stable numbers in core areas of its range. Kaua‘i ‘elepaio (Chasiempis sclateri) continued to decline in the outer portions of its range but increased in the core areas of its range. Abundance estimates of forest birds ranged from slightly higher to slightly lower in most species, indicating a relatively stable period from 2012–2018, and a pause from the rapid declines seen in earlier periods. Many native species now exist in very low numbers, and variation in estimates from survey to survey will increase.

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USGS2020

Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus semotus) behavior at wind turbines on Maui

This study examined the activity of the endemic Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus semotus) at wind turbines operated by Auwahi Wind Energy, LLC, on southern Maui Island, from August to November 2018. The research was conducted to assess the potential effect of wind speed and turbine operation on bat presence and behavior and compared information obtained from both acoustic monitoring and thermal videography. During the four months of nightly surveillance at four wind turbines, we observed 384 visual (videographic) and 244 acoustic detection events involving bats. Bats were infrequently detected, averaging 0.08 events per hour for both visual and acoustic samples. Detections occurred throughout the monitoring period, but bat presence was only evident for a fraction (acoustic: 30%; visual: 44%) of the turbine-nights sampled. Bats were present throughout the night, but detections exhibited a unimodal peak centered on the first third of the night, with events largely absent in the latter half of the night and no apparent seasonal trend towards earlier or later occurrence within nights. However, a decline in the visual detection rate was noted over the four-month period (a similar assessment was not available from acoustic samples due to missing data for much of the later months). Visual bat detections were not significantly correlated over nights (i.e., temporally), but were positively associated among turbines (i.e., spatially). Visual detections were generally brief (median = 9.0 sec), infrequent (median time between events = 49.0 min), and involved single passes (57%) largely comprised of a single bat (94%). The amount of time during which bats were visually observed amounted to only 0.05% of total videographic monitoring (2.5 hours of 5,066 total hours). Although not directly comparable to the video results because of differences in the volume of airspace sampled and nature of observation, acoustic detection events were similarly brief (median = 6.0 sec), infrequent (median time between passes = 38.8 min), and also composed only 0.05% of the total period of acoustic monitoring (1.6 hours of 3,036 total hours). Most visual observations (61%) were of individuals flying at some point during the event to within about 15 m of the turbine nacelle (machinery housing atop the monopole). Erratic flight paths were the most prevalent flight type with bats often repeatedly approaching and circling the nacelle. Terminal-phase (“feeding buzz”) calls were only noted in 3% of all acoustic events. Bats were most frequently detected visually at relatively low wind speeds (median = 3.4 m/sec); however, 10% of events occurred at wind speeds over 8.5 m/sec. Nightly bat detection rates for the four-month period of monitoring were negatively correlated with total daily precipitation. Generalized linear mixed model analysis confirmed that detection rates were negatively associated with wind speed and precipitation and indicated a positive relation with intermittent wind speed and its consequent effect on turbine blade rotation (i.e., frequent intervals of starting and stopping). The co-occurrence of bat detection obtained from videographic and acoustic monitoring methods was generally low, and in instances when individuals were visually observed, bats were detected acoustically during only 12% (within a 10-minute window), 22% (within a 2-hour window), and 56% (at some point during the entire night) of such events. Most visual detections (65% within a 2-hour window) lacking an acoustic detection involved bats observed flying within about 15 m of the turbine nacelle on which acoustic detector microphones were situated.

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USGS2020

Keeping Hawai‘i's forest birds one step ahead of disease in a warming world

Hawai‘i’s high-elevation forests provide a critical refuge from disease for native forest birds. However, global warming is facilitating the encroachment of mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit into increasingly higher elevations of remaining refugia, threatening the viability of the forest birds across the islands. Multiple management actions to address the threat of disease have been proposed, but there is an urgent need to identify which actions (or series of actions) should be prioritized as most effective, most cost-efficient, and most likely to produce results at a pace sufficient to stay ahead of climate change. A group of scientists, managers, and policy makers convened to evaluate a set of possible conservation strategies under a structured decision-making framework, focusing on management of Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, which was established to protect native Hawai‘ian forest birds. The biological models necessary to evaluate the set of conservation actions identified are not yet available, but the process of developing the framework for the decision analysis was immensely valuable for framing the issues and identifying information needs. Lessons learned from Hakalau Forest will be applicable to many other areas in Hawai‘i facing the same threat to forest birds.

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USGS2019

Trends in mammalian predator control trapping events intended to protect ground-nesting, endangered birds at Haleakalā National Park, Hawaiʻi: 2000–14

Predation and habitat degradation by non-native species are principal terrestrial threats to the federally endangered Hawaiian Petrel (ʻuaʻu, Pterodroma sandwichensis ) and Hawaiian Goose (nēnē, Branta sandvicensis ) within Haleakalā National Park (HALE), Maui, Hawaiʻi. Since 1981, HALE has maintained a network of live traps to control invasive mammalian predators and protect these endangered birds. To evaluate trapping efficiency in HALE, we evaluated four types of trap outcomes for the years 2000–14: Bait Lost (62 percent), No Event (23 percent), Trap Triggered (10 percent), and Predator Event (Rat Caught, Cat Caught, or Mongoose Caught; 4 percent). We used a multinomial logistic regression model to explore trends in the probabilities of broad outcomes (No Event, Other Event [Bait Lost or Trap Triggered], or Predator Event [Rat Caught, Cat Caught, or Mongoose Caught]). Temporal variations in the probabilities of No Event, Other Event, or Predator Event were best explained by ʻuaʻu season (off-season, pre-laying, incubation, or nestling), month, year, and seasonal rainfall with greater probabilities of Predator Event during the ʻuaʻu nestling period (July–October). The probability of Predator Event or Other Event decreased with increased rainfall. Spatial analysis showed that percent vegetative cover and vegetation type best explained variations in the probabilities of trapping outcomes with the probability of Predator Event being greatest in developed and tree covered areas. The proportion of trapping events that resulted in Rat Caught was at least 20 times greater than the proportions of events resulting in Cat or Mongoose Caught throughout the 15-year management period. Temporal analysis showed that season, year, and maximum temperature best explained variations in probabilities of Predator Event; the probability of Rat Caught was greatest during the ʻuaʻu pre-laying and incubation periods (February–June), was greater during periods of warmer maximum temperatures, and overall, increased over the 15-year management period. The probability of Mongoose Caught was greatest during the ʻuaʻu offseason (November–January), decreased through time (2000–14), and decreased with increasing weekly maximum temperatures. Trends in Cat Caught were hard to detect because of small sample sizes, though slight trends indicated cat captures were most frequent during the ʻuaʻu off season and less frequent through time (2000–14). The probability of a Cat Caught event was also negatively correlated with weekly temperatures. Spatial analysis showed elevation best explained variations in probabilities of capture for rats, cats, and mongoose. Overall, predator catches were fewer at higher elevations, and of predators caught at higher elevations, the clear majority were rats. Our results are being used by HALE Endangered Wildlife Management staff to evaluate existing methods for predator control and efficacy of existing trap-based control strategies intended to protect ʻuaʻu and nēnē.

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USGS2019

Temporal variations in scrubbing of magmatic gases at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

Measurements of gas compositions and emission rates play a major role in monitoring restless volcanoes. However, thermodynamic calculations imply that scrubbing by groundwater will prevent most HCl and significant SO2 emissions until dry pathways are established, thus leading to underestimates of gas released from magma and magma volumes. Despite the significance, direct evidence for scrubbing is mostly lacking. Based on 50 water samples collected between 2003 and 2011 from the deep NSF Well at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano we show that the chemical and stable isotope compositions of groundwater were modified by magmatic gas condensation. Temporal variations of dissolved SO42- and Cl- in the water coincided with changes in magmatic and volcanic activity. In 2006 up to ~40% of the SO2 and HCl degassed from magma may have been scrubbed by groundwater.

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USGS2019

Post-collapse gravity increase at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi

We conducted gravity surveys of the summit area of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, in November 2018 and March 2019, with the goal of determining whether there was any mass change at depth following the volcano's May–August 2018 caldera collapse. Surface deformation between the two surveys was minimal, but we measured a gravity increase (maximum 44 μGal) centered on the caldera that can be modeled as mass accumulation in a region ~1 km beneath the surface. We interpret this mass increase to be mostly magma accumulation in void space that was created during the summit collapse. Caldera uplift was evident by April 2019, indicating that the magma volume had reached a point where pressurization could be sustained. Modeled gravity change suggests a maximum magma storage rate at Kīlauea's summit during November 2018 to March 2019 that is much less than the pre‐2018 magma supply rate to the volcano.

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USGS2019

Anatomy of a caldera collapse: Kīlauea 2018 summit seismicity sequence in high resolution

The 2018 Kīlauea eruption and caldera collapse generated intense cycles of seismicity tied to repeated large seismic (Mw ~5) collapse events associated with magma withdrawal from beneath the summit. To gain insight into the underlying dynamics and aid eruption response, we applied waveform-based earthquake detection and double-difference location as the eruption unfolded. Here, we augment these rapid results by grouping events based on patterns of correlation-derived phase polarities across the network. From April 29 to August 6, bracketing the eruption, we used ~2800 events cataloged by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory to detect and precisely locate 44,000+ earthquakes. Resulting hypocentroids resolve complex, yet coherent structures, concentrated at shallow depths east of Halema‘uma‘u crater, beneath the eventual eastern perimeter of surface collapse. Based on a preponderance of dilatational P-wave first motions and similarities with previously inferred dike structures, we hypothesize that failure was dominated by coupled shear and crack closure.

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USGS2019

Simulating land cover change impacts on groundwater recharge under selected climate projections, Maui, Hawaiʻi

This project developed an integrated land cover/hydrological modeling framework using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) data, stakeholder input, climate information and projections, and empirical data to estimate future groundwater recharge on the Island of Maui, Hawaiʻi, USA. End-of-century mean annual groundwater recharge was estimated under four future land cover scenarios: Future 1 (conservation-focused), Future 2 (status-quo), Future 3 (development-focused), and Future 4 (balanced conservation and development), and two downscaled climate projections: a coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 “dry climate” future and a CMIP3 A1B “wet climate” future. Results were compared to recharge estimated using the 2017 baseline land cover to understand how changing land management and climate could influence groundwater recharge. Estimated recharge increased island-wide under all future land cover and climate combinations and was dominated by specific land cover transitions. For the dry future climate, recharge for land cover Futures 1 to 4 increased by 12%, 0.7%, 0.01%, and 11% relative to 2017 land cover conditions, respectively. Corresponding increases under the wet future climate were 10%, 0.9%, 0.6%, and 9.3%. Conversion from fallow/grassland to diversified agriculture increased irrigation, and therefore recharge. Above the cloud zone (610 m), conversion from grassland to native or alien forest led to increased fog interception, which increased recharge. The greatest changes to recharge occurred in Futures 1 and 4 in areas where irrigation increased, and where forest expanded within the cloud zone. Furthermore, new future urban expansion is currently slated for coastal areas that are already water-stressed and had low recharge projections. This study demonstrated that a spatially-explicit scenario planning process and modeling framework can communicate the possible consequences and tradeoffs of land cover change under a changing climate, and the outputs from this study serve as relevant tools for landscape-level management and interventions.

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USGS2019

The lava flow that came to Hilo—The 1880–81 eruption of Mauna Loa volcano, Island of Hawai‘i

The Mauna Loa eruption sequence of 1880–81 consists of two eruptions. The May 1880 eruption in Mokuʻāweoweo at the summit of Mauna Loa lasted just a few days and was followed 6 months later by three lava flows that issued from vents along the Northeast Rift Zone. The November 1880 eruption lasted almost a year and one of its flows nearly reached Hilo Bay. Public reaction in Hilo to the advancing lava flow increased as the lava got closer, but a smallpox quarantine prevented travelers and government officials from leaving Honolulu, the government seat of the Hawaiian Kingdom, until July 1881. In the King’s absence, his sister Princess Regent Liliʻuokalani and key officials met in Hilo at the beginning of August to plan a government response. This included the first known plan to use barriers and explosives to divert the lava flow in Hawaiʻi. Fortunately, the lava flow stopped before the plan was enacted; however, both Christian prayer and traditional Hawaiian chants and gifts to the Hawaiian deity Pele were offered in the last few weeks of lava activity. Mauna Loa was again restless in 2019 and the time seems optimum to review this and other Mauna Loa flows, in order to be ready for the next lava flow. Should the next flow threaten developed areas, review of past lava flow threats may provide valuable experience on how the public may best be provided with information.

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