Geology topics

Research about Guam

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Guam.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Invasive brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) move short distances and have small activity areas in a high prey environment

Animal movements reflect temporal and spatial availability of resources as well as when, where, and how individuals access such resources. To test these relationships for a predatory reptile, we quantified the effects of prey abundance on the spatial ecology of invasive brown treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ) on Guam. Five months after toxicant-mediated suppression of a brown treesnake population, we simultaneously used visual encounter surveys to generate relative rodent abundance and radiotelemetry of snakes to document movements of surviving snakes. After snake suppression, encounter rates for small mammals increased 22-fold and brown treesnakes had smaller mean daily movement distances (24 ± 13 m/day, x ¯ "> x ± SD) and activity areas (5.47 ± 5 ha) than all previous observations. Additionally, snakes frequenting forest edges, where our small mammal encounters were the highest, had smaller mean daily movement distances and three-dimensional activity volumes compared to those within the forest interior. Collectively, these results suggest that reduced movements by snakes were in part a response to increased prey availability. The impact of prey availability on snake movement may be a management consideration when attempting to control cryptic invasive species using tools that rely on movement of the target species to be effective,

Guam↗

USGS2022

Optimizing trilateration estimates for tracking fine-scale movement of wildlife using automated radio telemetry networks

A major advancement in the use of radio telemetry has been the development of automated radio tracking systems (ARTS), which allow animal movements to be tracked continuously. A new ARTS approach is the use of a network of simple radio receivers (nodes) that collect radio signal strength (RSS) values from animal-borne radio transmitters. However, the use of RSS-based localization methods in wildlife tracking research is new, and analytical approaches critical for determining high-quality location data have lagged behind technological developments. We present an analytical approach to optimize RSS-based localization estimates for a node network designed to track fine-scale animal movements in a localized area. Specifically, we test the application of analytical filters (signal strength, distance among nodes) to data from real and simulated node networks that differ in the density and configuration of nodes. We evaluate how different filters and network configurations (density and regularity of node spacing) may influence the accuracy of RSS-based localization estimates. Overall, the use of signal strength and distance-based filters resulted in a 3- to 9-fold increase in median accuracy of location estimates over unfiltered estimates, with the most stringent filters providing location estimates with a median accuracy ranging from 28 to 73 m depending on the configuration and spacing of the node network. We found that distance filters performed significantly better than RSS filters for networks with evenly spaced nodes, but the advantage diminished when nodes were less uniformly spaced within a network. Our results not only provide analytical approaches to greatly increase the accuracy of RSS-based localization estimates, as well as the computer code to do so, but also provide guidance on how to best configure node networks to maximize the accuracy and capabilities of such systems for wildlife tracking studies.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2021

Demographic response of brown treesnakes to extended population suppression

From a management perspective, reptiles are relatively novel invasive taxa. Few methods for reptile control have been developed and very little is known about their effectiveness for reducing reptile populations, particularly when the goal is eradication. Many reptiles, and especially snakes, are cryptic, secretive, and undergo extended periods of inactivity, traits that decrease detection probabilities and create challenges in estimating population size or evaluating management effects. The brown treesnake ( Boiga irregularis ) is a notorious invasive species that continues to cause major ecological and economic harm following their introduction to the island of Guam after World War II. They have been the subject of intensive research on the effectiveness of various techniques to control snakes, including the first ever aerial system for the distribution of toxic acetaminophen baits for reptile control. We provide a cohort-based life table for a cryptic and invasive reptile undergoing extended population control using toxic baits from March 2017–2020. We also evaluated the effects of single (toxic bait) versus multi-tool (toxic bait and live trapping) management efforts on population trajectories, and estimated which population vital rates are most important for influencing population growth or decline in a treated landscape. Treatment of the population with acetaminophen-laced baits resulted in an immediate reduction followed by a gradual population decline that suggested that eradication was the probable outcome given sufficient treatment time but that the period of treatment was decades in magnitude. Inclusion of live trapping reduced the predicted time required to achieve eradication by more than half. Preventing the transition of 1,000-mm snout-vent length (SVL) females to larger sizes was predicted to have the greatest effect on population reduction based on integral projection modeling. Our results suggest that toxic baits are capable of eradicating brown treesnakes in an enclosure, although inclusion of trapping reduced overall treatment time required. Tools that effectively target females >1,000 mm SVL may have the greatest effect on reducing overall treatment timelines.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2021

Tools for increasing visual encounter probabilities for invasive species removal: A case study of brown treesnakes

Early detection and rapid response (EDRR) are essential to identifying and decisively responding to the introduction or spread of an invasive species, thus avoiding population establishment and improving the probability of achieving eradication. However, detection can be challenging at the onset of a species invasion as low population densities can reduce detection probability and conceal the true extent of the situation until the species is well established. This is doubly challenging if the invading species displays cryptic behavior or is nocturnal, thus further limiting opportunities for its discovery. Survey methods that maximize a searcher’s ability to detect an incipient population are therefore critical for successful EDRR. Brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) on Guåhan are a classic cautionary example of the dangers of not detecting an invasion early on, and the risk of their introduction to other islands within the Marianas, Hawai’i and beyond remains. Nocturnal visual surveys are known to detect brown treesnakes of all sizes and are the primary detection tool used by the Brown Treesnake Rapid Response Team, but detection probability remains low in complex forest habitats. As such, we investigated the use of two potential enhancements to nocturnal visual surveys – a live mouse lure and spray scent attractant – that may create hotspots of increased detection probability during surveys. We found that, while brown treesnake detection probabilities were low for all surveys, visual surveys conducted on transects with live mouse lures resulted in detection probabilities that were 1.3 times higher than on transects without live mouse lures. Conversely, the spray scent attractant did not increase the probability of detecting brown treesnakes compared to transects without scent, and in fact had detection probabilities that were 0.66 times lower, though the reasons for this phenomenon are unclear. Unlike scent attractants, live mouse lures likely provide both visual and olfactory cues that attract brown treesnakes to transects and thus provide more opportunities to detect and capture them. These enhancements were trialed on Guåhan, where prey populations are depressed. It remains unclear whether live mouse lures will be as effective for EDRR applications in prey-rich settings.

Guam↗

USGS2021

Evaluation of camera trap-based abundance estimators for unmarked populations

Estimates of species abundance are critical to understand population processes and to assess and select management actions. However, capturing and marking individuals for abundance estimation, while providing robust information, can be economically and logistically prohibitive, particularly for species with cryptic behavior. Camera traps can be used to collect data at temporal and spatial scales necessary for estimating abundance, but the use of camera traps comes with limitations when target species are not uniquely identifiable (i.e., “unmarked”). Abundance estimation is particularly useful in the management of invasive species, with herpetofauna being recognized as some of the most pervasive and detrimental invasive vertebrate species. However, the use of camera traps for these taxa presents additional challenges with relevancy across multiple taxa. It is often necessary to use lures to attract animals in order to obtain sufficient observations, yet lure attraction can influence species’ landscape use and potentially induce bias in abundance estimators. We investigated these challenges and assessed the feasibility of obtaining reliable abundance estimates using camera-trapping data on a population of invasive brown treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ) in Guam. Data were collected using camera traps in an enclosed area where snakes were subject to high-intensity capture–recapture effort, resulting in presumed abundance of 116 snakes (density = 23/ha). We then applied spatial count, random encounter and staying time, space to event, and instantaneous sampling estimators to photo-capture data to estimate abundance and compared estimates to our presumed abundance. We found that all estimators for unmarked populations performed poorly, with inaccurate or imprecise abundance estimates that limit their usefulness for management in this system. We further investigated the sensitivity of these estimators to the use of lures (i.e., violating the assumption that animal behavior is unchanged by sampling) and camera density in a simulation study. Increasing the effective distances of a lure (i.e., lure attraction) and camera density both resulted in biased abundance estimates. Each estimator rarely recovered truth or suffered from convergence issues. Our results indicate that, when limited to unmarked estimators and the use of lures, camera traps alone are unlikely to produce abundance estimates with utility for brown treesnake management.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2021

Brown treesnake mortality after aerial application of toxic baits

Quantitative evaluation of control tools for managing invasive species is necessary to assess overall effectiveness and individual variation in treatment susceptibility. Invasive brown treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ) on Guam have caused severe ecological and economic effects, pose a risk of accidental introduction to other islands, and are the greatest impediment to the reestablishment of extirpated native fauna. An aerial delivery system for rodent-based toxic baits can reduce brown treesnake abundance and heterogeneity among individuals may influence bait attraction or toxicant susceptibility. Previous baiting trials have either been simulated aerial treatments or relied on slightly different bait capsule compositions and the results of aerial delivery of toxic baits under operational conditions may not be directly comparable. We monitored 30 radio-tagged adult snakes (990–1,265 mm snout-vent length) during an aerial baiting operation in a 55-ha area using transmitters equipped with accelerometers and receivers programed to display a status code indicating mortality if a snake failed to move for >24 hours. We used known-fate models to estimate mortality and evaluate a priori hypotheses explaining differences in mortality based on size, sex, and treatment effects. Eleven radio-tagged snakes died in the aerial baiting treatment period (0.37, 95% CI = 0.21–0.55) and no individuals (0.00, 95% CI = 0.00–0.04) died during the non-treatment period. Our data provide strong evidence for an additive size-based treatment effect on mortality, with smaller adults (0.59, 95% CI = 0.35–0.80) exhibiting higher mortality than larger snakes (0.14, 95% CI = 0.02–0.37) but did not support a sex effect on mortality. The high mortality of snakes during the treatment period indicates that aerial baiting can reduce brown treesnake abundance, but further refinement or use in combination with other removal tools may be necessary to overcome size-based differences in susceptibility and achieve eradication.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2021

Distilling professional opinion to gauge vulnerability of Guam avifauna to Brown Treesnake predation

The avifauna of Guam was devastated by the introduction of the Brown Treesnake, and the restoration of native birds would need to address the problem with eradication or suppression of BTS. With eradication of the snake unlikely in the near term, and suppression capabilities limited to specific finite areas, key information for reintroductions is how low BTS abundance will likely need to be for each bird species to be re-established based on their vulnerability to BTS predation. Here, we estimate vulnerability, which can no longer be measured directly, so biologists who are familiar with one or more of seven Guam birds were surveyed to obtain their knowledge and produce quantitative vulnerability estimates. As is typical of birds adapted to islands devoid of predators, respondents judged that our focal species exhibit few predator avoidance and tolerance traits, leaving body size as the prime determinant of vulnerability. Respondent opinion also holds that any behavior that reduces the likelihood of an encounter by BTS, e.g., roosting/nesting in palm crowns, cavity nesting, and in particular urban dwelling, substantially reduces vulnerability. Our results can help inform species-specific decisions about when it may be safe to consider the release of birds on Guam depending on the relative vulnerability of each species to predation by BTS.

Guam↗

USGS2021

Locally abundant, endangered Mariana swiftlets impact the abundance, behavior, and body condition of an invasive predator

Invasive predators are known to have negative consumptive and non-consumptive effects on native species, but few examples show how the abundance of native prey may influence an established invasive predator. We compared invasive brown treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ; BTS) found in caves occupied by endangered Mariana swiftlets ( Aerodramus bartschi ) to snakes found in nearby forests and caves without birds to quantify how the abundance of native avian prey impacts BTS abundance and behavior on Guam. From 2011 to 2017 we removed 151 BTS in caves occupied by swiftlets and never observed BTS in caves without birds. Notable locations included snakes foraging near swiftlets and in holes that allowed cave access and escape from capture. Of 43 BTS with gut contents, 27 (63%) contained swiftlets. BTS in swiftlet-occupied caves had greater fat mass compared to forests, indicating access to swiftlets may increase body condition and promote reproduction. Number of ovarian follicles was significantly greater in female snakes from swiftlet-occupied caves compared to those from ravine, but not limestone forests; evidence of male BTS being more capable of reproduction was limited (i.e., fewer non-discernible but not significantly larger testes in snakes from caves). Assuming other limiting factors are considered, altering the functional response of predators through the modification of caves or interdiction lures to exclude or hinder the largest BTS could bolster swiftlet populations by increasing nesting refugia in currently-occupied caves and facilitate recolonization of historical caves.

Oecologia↗

USGS2021

Recent recovery and expansion of Guam’s locally endangered Såli (Micronesian Starling) Aplonis opaca population in the presence of the invasive brown treesnake

Assessing the impacts of invasive predators on the demography and distribution of native species is critical for understanding mechanisms of species persistence and informing the design of recovery programmes. On the oceanic island of Guam, the introduction of the predatory brown treesnake Boiga irregularis after World War II caused the near-total loss of the native forest avifauna. Localised snake control measures have been implemented since the early 1990s, yet it remains poorly understood how they have impacted Guam’s remaining native bird populations. To address this question, we combined intensive area searches of Andersen Air Force Base (AAFB) with island-wide transect surveys and opportunistic sightings to provide a comprehensive update on the distribution and abundance of Såli (Micronesian Starling, Aplonis opaca ) – one of Guam’s last extant native bird species. Area searches of AAFB, where the largest remnant of the Såli population persists, revealed a 15-fold population increase since the last survey in the early 1990s, and transect surveys and opportunistic sightings indicate incipient recolonisation of other urbanised areas of northern and central Guam. We estimate the current island-wide population size at ~1,400 individuals. The population increase can likely be attributed to a combination of snake control measures and the Såli’s ability to exploit urban refugia for nesting and roosting. Although these trends demonstrate some population recovery, a skewed age ratio (>90% adults and subadults) at AAFB and a highly urbanised distribution and low abundance outside AAFB indicate that snake predation continues to strongly impact the population. More intensive snake suppression efforts, particularly in forested areas, may allow for the Såli population to attain its former distribution and abundance on Guam. More broadly, our findings reinforce the importance of urban areas as refugia for some threatened species.

Bird Conservation International↗

USGS2021

Evaluating establishment success of non-native fishes introduced to inland aquatic habitats of tropical Pacific islands

An information-theoretic approach was used to evaluate non-native freshwater fish species introduced to insular habitats of Hawaii and Guam comparing successful establishments vs. failures. Since the late 1800s, as many as 81 non-native freshwater fish species have been recorded as introduced to Hawaii and Guam (combined) and 50 (62%) of these are documented as having one or more established populations. We examined eleven independent variables to investigate establishment success by creating 21 a priori logistic regression models ranked using Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size. An additional eight post-hoc models were included that comprised the best a priori model and various combinations of individual variables. The best overall model of establishment probability included effects of taxonomic affinity (family membership), prior establishment success on other tropical islands, and hypoxia tolerance. Establishment success in Hawaii and Guam was highest for those species established on many other islands, and according to our best model air-breathing fishes were more likely to become established. Six fish families, each with from three to 18 species introduced to Pacific islands, were highly successful at establishment: Cichlidae (16 established of 18 species introduced), Poeciliidae (seven of eight), Cyprinidae (four of seven), Centrarchidae (four of four), Clariidae (three of three), and Loricariidae (three of four). Those that successfully established include both small and moderately large-bodied taxa, while representing a diverse array of other morphological and life-history traits. Pathways and motives associated with fish introductions in the Pacific have been linked to desires to develop aquaculture, enhance wild stocks of food, sport, and bait fishes, for use as biological control agents, or are linked to the ornamental fish trade. We found that many established species were introduced via multiple pathways (up to eight) and our analyses suggest that the combination of prior establishment success on other tropical islands and presence of non-native fishes in multiple pathways was indicative of high propagule pressure. Our study results and conclusions on Pacific tropical island introductions are in general agreement with previous studies on non-native freshwater fishes in other regions of the world and similar to observations in continental ecosystems and temperate zones.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Surface material and snout-vent length predict vertical scaling ability in brown treesnakes:an evaluation of multispecies barriers for invasive species control on Guam

The combination of snake-proof barriers and an aerial toxicant delivery system for snake suppression may allow large-scale control of invasive brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) on Guam. However, suppression or local eradication of several other species (e.g., introduced ungulates, cats, rodents) may be required for successful restoration and recovery of forest habitat and reintroduction of native fauna. Island-wide eradication of invasive species is unlikely on Guam, and existing snake-proof barriers are largely ineffective against cats, rodents, shrews, or monitors. Improved barrier technology and pest-control tools may together provide a viable solution to support localized restoration of species and habitats. We designed and tested prototype multispecies barriers using materials known to repel ungulates, cats, and rodents, with a focus on testing the ability of a rolled hood installed over three different mesh designs to repel brown treesnakes and black rats (Rattus rattus). Woven wire (4.9 × 12 mm aperture, 2.5 mm dia. wire) repelled 99.1% of all snakes, including ≥1031 breach attempts by 112 individuals and 2 successful breaches by 1 small individual. Woven wire (6 × 6 mm aperture, 2.7 mm dia. wire) repelled 100% of all snakes, including 611 breach attempts by 65 individuals. Mini chain link mesh (7 × 9 mm aperture, 1 mm dia. wire) repelled 100% of all snakes, including 1053 breach attempts by 97 individuals. Brown treesnakes were unable to climb either of the two woven wire designs (1642 breach attempts by 160 individuals), making the rolled hood serve as a redundant secondary snake barrier. The rolled hood repelled 100% of all snakes when individuals were provided a climbable surface to access the hood (94 breach attempts by 39 snakes). The probability of a snake being able to climb the mini chain link mesh was inversely related to SVL. The rolled hood repelled 100% of all rats, with 5079 breach attempts by 21 individuals. Recommended next steps include consultation with engineers to address wind loading, structural integrity, material interactions, and integration of decision support tools to optimize cost and efficacy of barrier designs on the landscape.

Management of Biological Invasions.↗

USGS2020

Validating deployment of aerially delivered toxic bait cartridges for control of invasive brown treesnakes

Aerial application of management tools can provide a cost‐effective means to conserve or control wildlife populations at the landscape scale. Large spatial scales, however, present difficulties when assessing in situ reliability and integrity of the devices themselves. We demonstrate application of a distance‐sampling density estimation approach to assess the performance of a newly developed toxicant bait system for the control of invasive brown treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ). Bait cartridges were designed to open in flight to expose the toxicant‐laced bait and tangle in the forest canopy via a plastic ribbon component. Following application of 12,686 bait cartridges from an automated aerial delivery system over a 55‐ha site on Guam, USA, we employed distance sampling techniques to evaluate cartridge performance. We performed 22 line‐transect surveys for a total distance of 10.3 km, during which we recorded all observations of unopened bait cartridges, instances in which the ribbon did not remain attached to the cartridge capsule (i.e., ribbon failure), and carcasses of brown treesnakes and nontarget species. Too few undeployed bait cartridges ( n = 6), brown treesnake carcasses ( n = 1), or nontarget carcasses ( n = 0) were observed during surveys to support additional analysis. We detected 299 instances of ribbon failure. Using standard distance‐sampling analyses, we estimate that ribbon failure occurred in 3,376 ± 351 (estimate ± SE; 95% CL = 2,746–4,150) cartridges or 21.6–32.7% of the total applied. Our results demonstrate the utility of distance‐sampling density estimation techniques to validate performance and reliability of aerially applied management tools.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2019

Genomic pedigree reconstruction identifies predictors of mating and reproductive success in an invasive vertebrate

The persistence of an invasive species is influenced by its reproductive ecology, and a successful control program must operate on this premise. However, the reproductive ecology of invasive species may be enigmatic due to factors that also limit their management, such as cryptic coloration and behavior. We explored the mating and reproductive ecology of the invasive Brown Treesnake (BTS : Boiga irregularis ) by reconstructing a multigenerational genomic pedigree based on 654 single nucleotide polymorphisms for a geographically closed population established in 2004 on Guam ( N = 426). The pedigree allowed annual estimates of individual mating and reproductive success to be inferred for snakes in the study population over a 14‐year period. We then employed generalized linear mixed models to gauge how well phenotypic and genomic data could predict sex‐specific annual mating and reproductive success. Average snout–vent length (SVL), average body condition index (BCI), and trappability were significantly related to annual mating success for males, with average SVL also related to annual mating success for females. Male and female annual reproductive success was positively affected by SVL, BCI, and trappability. Surprisingly, the degree to which individuals were inbred had no effect on annual mating or reproductive success. When juxtaposed with current control methods, these results indicate that baited traps, a common interdiction tool, may target fecund BTS in some regards but not others. Our study emphasizes the importance of reproductive ecology as a focus for improving BTS control and promotes genomic pedigree reconstruction for such an endeavor in this invasive species and others.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

Water resources on Guam—Potential impacts of and adaptive response to climate change

The goals of this joint U.S. Geological Survey, University of Hawaiʻi, University of Guam, University of Texas, and East-West Center study were to (1) provide basic understanding about water resources for U.S. Department of Defense installations on Guam and (2) assess the resulting effect of sea-level rise and a changing climate on freshwater availability, on the basis of historic information, sea-level rise projections, and global-climate model temperature and rainfall projections. Downscaled regional climate models, informed by a multimodel ensemble of global climate models provided projections of future climate conditions for Guam. These projected climate conditions provided input to surface-water and groundwater models developed for Guam’s hydrology. Guam’s water resources in a future climate condition (2080–99) are projected to diminish relative to the recent climate condition. Projected average temperature increases, and average rainfall decreases will lead to reduced streamflow in southern Guam and reduced groundwater recharge to the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer (NGLA). Projected average temperatures in southern Guam will increase about 5.8 °F (3.22 °C), overall rainfall will decrease about 7 percent, and streamflow will consequently decrease 18 percent in important areas of southern Guam. Similarly, across the NGLA, future groundwater recharge will be 19 percent less than estimated recharge from 2012. Reduced future streamflow will decrease water availability from the Fena Valley Reservoir; however, the reservoir is expected to be able to supply water at recent demand rates without lowering the reservoir level to the elevation of the water-supply intakes throughout the simulated period of a future climate. A twelve-year simulation indicates that the reservoir can supply about twice the 2018 demand without lowering the reservoir level to the water-supply intakes. By following mitigation strategies to increase reservoir water availability, the withdrawal rate can be increased by 1.7 percent if the water-supply intakes are lowered 5 ft, by 3.5 percent if the spillway height is raised 5 ft, and by 5.3 percent if both strategies are combined. Higher sea level and reduced future recharge will decrease water availability from the NGLA. An index of composite chloride concentration from production wells increases to 300 milligrams per liter (mg/L) for future climate conditions and at 2010 withdrawal rates, compared with 130 mg/L under historic climate conditions. Most of this increase is due to reduced recharge as higher (+3.2 ft) sea level only has a small role in increasing withdrawn water salinity. A redistributed withdrawal scenario in which the composite chloride concentration is 290 mg/L offers only slight improvement. Should future droughts reduce recharge proportionally to the decreases observed during historic droughts, the composite concentration would be about 900 mg/L, and more than 70 percent of Guam’s production wells would produce water with a composite concentration greater than 500 mg/L. Potential mitigation strategies for increasing the potable yield of the NGLA in a future climate include reducing depths of deep production wells and reducing the withdrawal rates in selected wells projected to have higher chloride concentrations. Simulations show both strategies are effective in lowering the composite concentration of the withdrawn water.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2019

Guam's water resources

How do climate and humans impact freshwater resources, and how can we plan for change?

Cooperator Report↗

USGS2019

Freshwater availability in Guam with projected changes in climate

Guam receives 85 to 116 inches of rain a year, two-thirds of which has historically fallen during the wet season. On average, three tropical storms and one typhoon pass within 80 nautical miles of Guam each year, generally during the rainy season. Both drought and flooding can impact freshwater supply and the associated infrastructure. Department of Defense (DoD) installations and non-military populations on Guam share freshwater resources, which will be impacted by changes in demographics, freshwater demand, and climate. This DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) funded study evaluated potential climate impacts on freshwater supplies in Guam, and identified methods of increasing the water distribution system’s resilience.

Cooperator Report↗

USGS2017

Fena Valley Reservoir watershed and water-balance model updates and expansion of watershed modeling to southern Guam

In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, initiated a project to evaluate the potential impacts of projected climate-change on Department of Defense installations that rely on Guam’s water resources. A major task of that project was to develop a watershed model of southern Guam and a water-balance model for the Fena Valley Reservoir. The southern Guam watershed model provides a physically based tool to estimate surface-water availability in southern Guam. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, PRMS-IV, was used to construct the watershed model. The PRMS-IV code simulates different parts of the hydrologic cycle based on a set of user-defined modules. The southern Guam watershed model was constructed by updating a watershed model for the Fena Valley watersheds, and expanding the modeled area to include all of southern Guam. The Fena Valley watershed model was combined with a previously developed, but recently updated and recalibrated Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model. Two important surface-water resources for the U.S. Navy and the citizens of Guam were modeled in this study; the extended model now includes the Ugum River watershed and improves upon the previous model of the Fena Valley watersheds. Surface water from the Ugum River watershed is diverted and treated for drinking water, and the Fena Valley watersheds feed the largest surface-water reservoir on Guam. The southern Guam watershed model performed “very good,” according to the criteria of Moriasi and others (2007), in the Ugum River watershed above Talofofo Falls with monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency statistic values of 0.97 for the calibration period and 0.93 for the verification period (a value of 1.0 represents perfect model fit). In the Fena Valley watershed, monthly simulated streamflow volumes from the watershed model compared reasonably well with the measured values for the gaging stations on the Almagosa, Maulap, and Imong Rivers—tributaries to the Fena Valley Reservoir—with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.87 or higher. The southern Guam watershed model simulated the total volume of the critical dry season (January to May) streamflow for the entire simulation period within –0.54 percent at the Almagosa River, within 6.39 percent at the Maulap River, and within 6.06 percent at the Imong River. The recalibrated water-balance model of the Fena Valley Reservoir generally simulated monthly reservoir storage volume with reasonable accuracy. For the calibration and verification periods, errors in end-of-month reservoir-storage volume ranged from 6.04 percent (284.6 acre-feet or 92.7 million gallons) to –5.70 percent (–240.8 acre-feet or –78.5 million gallons). Monthly simulation bias ranged from –0.48 percent for the calibration period to 0.87 percent for the verification period; relative error ranged from –0.60 to 0.88 percent for the calibration and verification periods, respectively. The small bias indicated that the model did not consistently overestimate or underestimate reservoir storage volume. In the entirety of southern Guam, the watershed model has a “satisfactory” to “very good” rating when simulating monthly mean streamflow for all but one of the gaged watersheds during the verification period. The southern Guam watershed model uses a more sophisticated climate-distribution scheme than the older model to make use of the sparse climate data, as well as includes updated land-cover parameters and the capability to simulate closed depression areas. The new Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model is useful as an updated tool to forecast short-term changes in the surface-water resources of Guam. Furthermore, the now spatially complete southern Guam watershed model can be used to evaluate changes in streamflow and recharge owing to climate or land-cover changes. These are substantial improvements to the previous models of the Fena Valley watershed and Reservoir. Datasets associated with this report are available as a U.S. Geological Survey data release (Rosa and Hay, 2017; DOI:10.5066/F7HH6HV4).

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Passive restoration following ungulate removal in a highly disturbed tropical wet forest devoid of native seed dispersers

Overabundant ungulate populations can alter forests. Concurrently, global declines of seed dispersers may threaten native forest structure and function. On an island largely devoid of native vertebrate seed dispersers, we monitored forest succession for 7 years following ungulate exclusion from a 5-ha area and adjacent plots with ungulates still present. We observed succession from open scrub to forest and understory cover by non-native plants declined. Two trees, native Hibiscus tiliaceus and non-native Leucaena leucocephala , accounted for most forest regeneration, with the latter dominant. Neither species is dependent on animal dispersers nor was there strong evidence that plants dependent on dispersers migrated into the 5-ha study area. Passive restoration following ungulate removal may facilitate restoration, but did not show promise for fully restoring native forest on Guam. Restoration of native forest plants in bird depopulated areas will likely require active outplanting of native seedlings, control of factors resulting in bird loss, and reintroduction of seed dispersers.

Guam↗