Geology topics

Research about Florida Keys

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Florida Keys.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Coral reef protection may help avert risks to people, property, and economic activity caused by projected reef degradation

Degradation of coral reefs over the past several decades has caused regional-scale erosion of the shallow seafloor that serves as a protective barrier against coastal hazards along southeast Florida, USA. How future change in coral reefs may affect coastal flooding, however, has been less attended than other factors contributing to increasing risks such as sea-level rise and more intense storms. Here, the increased flooding hazard faced by Florida's coastal communities from the projected future degradation of its adjacent coral reefs is evaluated through oceanographic, coastal engineering, habitat, geospatial, and socioeconomic modeling. Risk-based valuation approaches were followed to map flood zones at 10-m 2 resolution along 430 km of Florida's reef-lined coast for the current and projected future coral reef conditions. The projected degradation of Florida's coral reefs can increase annual flooding to more than 8.77 km 2 of land and 4,980 km of roads, affecting more than 7,315 people, $412.5 million in damages to 1,400 buildings, and economic disruption of $438.1 million annually (2024 US dollars). The degradation of Florida's coral reefs would increase the annual risk to people and structures by more than 42% and 47%, respectively, but is spatially variable due to the heterogeneous alongshore nature and distribution of the reefs and communities: the increased risk exceeds $1 million/km annually to more than 17% of the coastline but also disproportionately would affect vulnerable populations. These results help identify areas where coral reef protection could help reduce the projected increased storm flooding risk to Florida's coastal communities.

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USGS2025

Heat-driven functional extinction of Caribbean Acropora corals from Florida's Coral Reef

In 2023, a record-setting marine heat wave triggered the ninth mass coral bleaching event on Florida’s Coral Reef (FCR). We examined spatial patterns of heat exposure along the ~560-kilometer length of FCR and the mortality of two ecologically important, critically endangered reef-building corals. Sea surface temperatures were ≥31°C for an average of 40.7 days, leading to heat exposures 2.2- to fourfold higher than all prior years on record. In the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas, 97.8 to 100% of the Acropora palmata and Acropora cervicornis colonies died. Mortality was lower offshore southeast Florida (37.9%), reflecting cooler temperatures in this region. Since the late 1970s, multiple stressors had already reduced the ecological relevance of Acropora in Florida, but the 2023 heat wave marks their functional extinction from FCR.

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USGS2025

Shifting baselines of coral-reef species composition from the Late Pleistocene to the present in the Florida Keys

The ongoing global-scale reassembly of modern coral reefs is unprecedented compared with the observed stability of most late Quaternary reef assemblages. One notable exception is the marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e ( ca 130–116 thousand years ago [ka]) reefs in the Florida Keys, where the ubiquitous shallow-water coral, Acropora palmata , was near absent. Little is known, however, about reefs that grew during MIS5d–a ( ca 116–74 ka), between MIS5e and the Holocene. It is therefore unclear whether Florida's unique MIS5e coral assemblages represent a geologically brief anomaly or a more persistent departure from the western Atlantic coral-reef archetype. We addressed that question by reconstructing the composition of MIS5d–a reefs within 29 coral-reef cores collected throughout the Florida Keys. We then compared the relative composition of corals during MIS5d–a to existing datasets from MIS5e, Holocene and modern (1996 and 2022) reefs to evaluate how far today's reef assemblages have diverged from geological baselines. We show that although the proportion of reef frameworks built by corals was remarkably consistent ( ca 38%), species composition changed significantly through time. Acropora palmata was rare throughout MIS5, which we hypothesise was due to greater cold-temperature stress in Florida's subtropical reefs compared with the more climatically stable tropics. In contrast, the massive reef-building coral, Orbicella spp., was regionally dominant throughout the late Quaternary, but has become increasingly rare on modern reefs. By 2022, reefs in the Florida Keys were characterised by a truly novel coral assemblage dominated by Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea . In many ways, Florida's reefs defy the concept of a natural baseline; instead, their most persistent characteristic since the Late Pleistocene is their uniqueness. Yet, as reefs are increasingly subjected to unprecedented levels of environmental change, the exceptions to what was normal in the past could, paradoxically, provide the best geological analogues for the future.

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USGS2023

Stony coral tissue loss disease accelerated shifts in coral composition and declines in reef accretion potential in the Florida Keys

Outbreaks of coral disease have been a dominant force shaping western Atlantic coral-reef assemblages since the late 1970s. Stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) is nonetheless having an unprecedented impact in the region. Whereas numerous studies over the last decade have worked to characterize this novel pathogen and its impacts on coral populations, few have quantified its functional effects on reef ecosystems. Of particular importance is how SCTLD may be impacting the essential reef-accretion process and the myriad ecosystem services it supports. Here, we evaluated the impact of SCTLD on reef-accretion potential by estimating carbonate budgets and taxon-level carbonate production at 43 sites throughout the Florida Keys from 2016−2022. Average regional reef-accretion potential declined from an already low, but positive rate of 0.30 ± 0.16 mm y -1 (mean ± standard error) in 2016 before the disease was first observed, to a state of accretionary stasis (0.08 ± 0.12 mm y -1 ) by 2022. This 70% relative decline in reef-accretion potential was driven by the loss of reef-building corals, with significant decreases in carbonate production by massive taxa including Colpophyllia natans , Montastraea cavernosa , Pseudodiploria strigosa , Orbicella spp., and Siderastrea siderea , and increasing contributions from less susceptible, weedy taxa including Millepora spp., Agaricia spp., and Porites astreoides . In general, changes in taxon-level carbonate production following the SCTLD outbreak mirror long-term shifts in reef assemblages in response to previous stressors. One striking exception, however, is S. siderea , which had become increasingly dominant in recent decades, but declined significantly in response to SCTLD. Overall, by further decimating the already depauperate reef-building coral populations in the Florida Keys, SCTLD has caused a functionally significant shift in the composition of Florida’s coral-reef assemblages and accelerated the loss of regional reef-building capacity. The dire impacts of the disease in south Florida may serve as an early warning that the persistence of the invaluable ecological and socioeconomic functions coral reefs provide will be increasingly threatened throughout the western Atlantic in the aftermath of SCTLD.

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USGS2022

Future changes in habitat availability for two specialist snake species in the imperiled rocklands of South Florida, U.S.A.

Rockland habitat in South Florida, USA, is a threatened ecosystem that has been lost, fragmented, or degraded because of urbanization or other anthropogenic disturbance. Furthermore, low-lying islands and coastal areas are experiencing sea level rise (SLR) and an increased frequency and intensity of tidal flooding, putting rockland habitats there at increasing risk of ecological change. We evaluated changes in the extent of rockland habitat under various scenarios of future SLR, tidal flooding, and human development for two endemic state-listed threatened species of snakes, the Rim Rock Crowned Snake ( Tantilla oolitica ) and the Key Ring-necked Snake ( Diadophis punctatus acricus ). Both snakes are restricted to South Florida. We used recent and historical species' records to determine each species' habitat range. We then estimated the extent of future habitat loss due to SLR and continued human development, as well as degradation of the remaining habitat. We also asked whether the future potential drivers of habitat loss and degradation differ between the two species and across their habitat ranges. We predicted that saltwater intrusion could negatively affect rocklands by 2050, resulting in degradation of 80% of the existing habitat because of an anticipated 42 cm of SLR. Moreover, our model suggests short-term stochastic events such as storm surge and high tides may increasingly saturate the root zone of rockland vegetation before complete inundation. Under the extreme scenario, we predict most of the rockland habitat used by these two species of snakes may be inundated by 2080. Under the extreme SLR scenario, current rocklands are likely to convert to more halophytic habitat (mangrove or salt marsh wetland) within 50–60 years. Under the low scenario, 31% of rockland habitat may be lost due to human development by 2030. Therefore, mitigation actions may help to conserve specialist species within rockland habitat threatened by human activities and climate change.

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USGS2022

The past, present, and future of coral reef growth in the Florida Keys

Coral-reef degradation is driving global-scale reductions in reef-building capacity and the ecological, geological, and socioeconomic functions it supports. The persistence of those essential functions will depend on whether coral-reef management is able to rebalance the competing processes of reef accretion and erosion. Here, we reconstructed census-based carbonate budgets of 46 reefs throughout the Florida Keys from 1996 to 2019. We evaluated the environmental and ecological drivers of changing budget states and compared historical trends in reef-accretion potential to millennial-scale baselines of accretion from reef cores and future projections with coral restoration. We found that historically, most reefs had positive carbonate budgets, and many had reef-accretion potential comparable to the ~3 mm year −1 average accretion rate during the peak of regional reef building ~7000 years ago; however, declines in reef-building Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. corals following a series of thermal stress events and coral disease outbreaks resulted in a shift from positive to negative budgets for most reefs in the region. By 2019, only ~15% of reefs had positive net carbonate production. Most of those reefs were in inshore, Lower Keys patch-reef habitats with low water clarity, supporting the hypothesis that environments with naturally low irradiance may provide a refugia from thermal stress. We caution that our estimated carbonate budgets are likely overly optimistic; comparison of reef-accretion potential to measured accretion from reef cores suggests that, by not accounting for the role of nonbiological physical and chemical erosion, census-based carbonate budgets may underestimate total erosion by ~1 mm year −1 (−1.15 kg CaCO 3 m −2 year −1 ). Although the present state of Florida's reefs is dire, we demonstrate that the restoration of reef-building corals has the potential to help mitigate declines in reef accretion in some locations, which could allow some key ecosystem functions to be maintained until the threat of global climate change is addressed.

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USGS2022

Shifting precipitation regimes alter the phenology and population dynamics of low latitude ectotherms

Predicting how species respond to changes in climate is critical to conserving biodiversity. Modeling efforts to date have largely centered on predicting the effects of warming temperatures on temperate species phenology. In and near the tropics, the effects of a warming planet on species phenology are more likely to be driven by changes in the seasonal precipitation cycle rather than temperature. To demonstrate the importance of considering precipitation-driven phenology in ecological studies, we present a case study wherein we construct a mechanistic population model for a rare subtropical butterfly (Miami blue butterfly, Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri ) and use a suite of global climate models to project butterfly populations into the future. Across all iterations of the model, the trajectory of Miami blue populations is uncertain. We identify both biological uncertainty (unknown diapause survival rate) and climate uncertainty (ambiguity in the sign of precipitation change across climate models), and their interaction as key factors that determine persistence vs. extinction. Despite uncertainty, the most optimistic iteration of the model predicts that Miami blue butterfly populations will decline under the higher emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). The lack of climate model agreement across the projection ensemble suggests that investigations into the effect of climate change on precipitation-driven phenology require a higher level of rigor in the uncertainty analysis compared to analogous studies of temperature. For tropical species, a mechanistic approach that incorporates both biological and climate uncertainty is the best path forward to understand the effect shifting precipitation regimes have on phenology and population dynamics.

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USGS2021

Underwater photographic reconnaissance and habitat data collection in the Florida Keys—A procedure for ground truthing remotely sensed bathymetric data

Bathymetric geoprocessing analyses of the Florida Reef Tract have provided insights into trends of seafloor accretion and seafloor erosion over time and following major storm events. However, bathymetric surveys sometimes capture manmade structures and vegetation, which do not represent the desired bare-earth data. Therefore, ground truthing is essential to maintain the most accurate bathymetric data possible. Field procedures were developed in the Florida Reef Tract in order to quickly and accurately collect consistent imagery and habitat data across variable sites. Areas of significant elevation change were determined through elevation change analyses; these areas were targeted for ground truthing in order to check the reliability of the surveys. This report outlines the standard operating procedures for underwater photographic imagery and habitat data collection, as well as procedures for the storage of these photographs and associated metadata. These standard operating procedures ensure the reproducibility of photographic operations and habitat data collection in future field excursions, enable longitudinal visual comparisons alongside seafloor elevation change analyses, and also have the potential to be applied to similar studies in different coastal environments.

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USGS2020

Accurate bathymetric maps from underwater digital imagery without ground control

Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry can be used with digital underwater photographs to generate high-resolution bathymetry and orthomosaics with millimeter-to-centimeter scale resolution at relatively low cost. Although these products are useful for assessing species diversity and health, they have additional utility for quantifying benthic community structure, such as coral growth and fine-scale elevation change over time, if accurate length scales and georeferencing are included. This georeferencing is commonly provided with “ground control,” such as pre-installed seafloor benchmarks or identifiable “static” features, which can be difficult and time consuming to install, survey, and maintain. To address these challenges, we developed the SfM Quantitative Underwater Imaging Device with Five Cameras (SQUID-5), a towed surface vehicle with an onboard survey-grade Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and five rigidly mounted downward-looking cameras with overlapping views of the seafloor. The cameras are tightly synchronized with both the GNSS and each other to collect quintet photo sets and record the precise location of every collection event. The system was field tested in July 2019 in the U.S. Florida Keys, in water depths ranging from 3 to 9 m over a variety of bottom types. Surveying accuracy was assessed using pre-installed stations with known coordinates, machined scale bars, and two independent surveys of a site to evaluate repeatability. Under a range of sea conditions, ambient lighting, and water clarity, we were able to map living and senile coral reef habitats and sand waves at mm-scale resolution. Data were processed using best practice SfM techniques without ground control and local measurement errors of horizontal and vertical scales were consistently sub-millimeter, equivalent to 0.013% RMSE relative to water depth. Survey-to-survey repeatability RMSE was on the order of 3 cm without georeferencing but could be improved to several millimeters with the incorporation of one or more non-surveyed marker points. We demonstrate that the SQUID-5 platform can map complex coral reef and other seafloor habitats and measure mm-to-cm scale changes in the morphology and location of seafloor features over time without pre-existing ground control.

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USGS2020

Reestablishing a stepping-stone population of the threatened elkhorn coral Acropora palmata to aid regional recovery

Recovery of the elkhorn coral Acropora palmata is critical to reversing coral reef ecosystem collapse in the western Atlantic, but the species is severely threatened. To gauge potential for the species’ restoration in Florida, USA, we conducted an assisted migration experiment where 50 coral fragments of 5 nursery-raised genetic strains (genets) from the upper Florida Keys were moved to 5 sites across 350 km of the offshore reef. Additionally, 4 fragments from the 1 remaining colony of A. palmata in Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) were added to the 2 DRTO experimental sites to test for local adaptation. To measure coral performance, we tracked coral survival, calcification, growth, and condition from May 2018 to October 2019. All 24 corals relocated to the DRTO sites survived and calcified ~85% faster than the fewer surviving corals transplanted to the 2 upper Keys sites. While coral survival across the entire experiment did not depend on genet, there was a weak but statistically significant genetic effect on calcification rate among the corals relocated to DRTO. The DRTO native genet was among the fastest growing genets, but it was not the fastest, suggesting a lack of local adaptation at this scale. Our results indicate that DRTO, a remote reef system inhabited by the species during the Holocene and located at the nexus of major ocean currents, may be a prime location for reestablishing A. palmata . Assisted migration of A. palmata to DRTO could restore a sexually reproducing population in <10 yr, thereby promoting the species’ regional recovery.

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USGS2018

A framework for identifying and characterising coral reef “oases” against a backdrop of degradation

Human activities have led to widespread ecological decline; however, the severity of degradation is spatially heterogeneous due to some locations resisting, escaping, or rebounding from disturbances. We developed a framework for identifying oases within coral reef regions using long‐term monitoring data. We calculated standardised estimates of coral cover ( z ‐scores) to distinguish sites that deviated positively from regional means. We also used the coefficient of variation (CV) of coral cover to quantify how oases varied temporally, and to distinguish among types of oases. We estimated “coral calcification capacity” (CCC), a measure of the coral community's ability to produce calcium carbonate structures and tested for an association between this metric and z ‐scores of coral cover. We illustrated our z ‐score approach within a modelling framework by extracting z ‐scores and CVs from simulated data based on four generalized trajectories of coral cover. We then applied the approach to time‐series data from long‐term reef monitoring programmes in four focal regions in the Pacific (the main Hawaiian Islands and Mo'orea, French Polynesia) and western Atlantic (the Florida Keys and St. John, US Virgin Islands). Among the 123 sites analysed, 38 had positive z ‐scores for median coral cover and were categorised as oases. Synthesis and applications . Our framework provides ecosystem managers with a valuable tool for conservation by identifying “oases” within degraded areas. By evaluating trajectories of change in state (e.g., coral cover) among oases, our approach may help in identifying the mechanisms responsible for spatial variability in ecosystem condition. Increased mechanistic understanding can guide whether management of a particular location should emphasise protection, mitigation or restoration. Analysis of the empirical data suggest that the majority of our coral reef oases originated by either escaping or resisting disturbances, although some sites showed a high capacity for recovery, while others were candidates for restoration. Finally, our measure of reef condition (i.e., median z ‐scores of coral cover) correlated positively with coral calcification capacity suggesting that our approach identified oases that are also exceptional for one critical component of ecological function.

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USGS2018

Exotic predators may threaten another island ecosystem: A comprehensive assessment of python and boa reports from the Florida Keys

Summarizing historical records of potentially invasive species increases understanding of propagule pressure, spatiotemporal trends, and establishment risk of these species. We compiled records of non-native pythons and boas from the Florida Keys, cross-referenced them to eliminate duplicates, and categorized each record’s credibility. We report on 159 observations of six python and boa species in the Florida Keys over the past 17 years. Burmese pythons (Python bivittatus), boa constrictors (Boa constrictor), and ball pythons (Python regius) are the most frequently reported species, but credible records of three additional species were also reported. Among the most notable records, we report on three hatchling and multiple reproductive Burmese pythons captured on North Key Largo since 2016, indicating that the species is now established on that island. The expanding mainland Burmese python population and ongoing python and boa introductions via pet and cargo pathways are likely to keep propagule pressure high in coming years. Both effective public outreach to solicit reporting of sightings and effective early detection and rapid response networks may help to prevent further establishment and associated ecological impacts of python and boa species in the Florida Keys.

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USGS2017

Free-ranging domestic cats ( Felis catus ) on public lands: estimating density, activity, and diet in the Florida Keys

Feral and free-ranging domestic cats ( Felis catus ) can have strong negative effects on small mammals and birds, particularly in island ecosystems. We deployed camera traps to study free-ranging cats in national wildlife refuges and state parks on Big Pine Key and Key Largo in the Florida Keys, USA, and used spatial capture–recapture models to estimate cat abundance, movement, and activities. We also used stable isotope analyses to examine the diet of cats captured on public lands. Top population models separated cats based on differences in movement and detection with three and two latent groups on Big Pine Key and Key Largo, respectively. We hypothesize that these latent groups represent feral, semi-feral, and indoor/outdoor house cats based on the estimated movement parameters of each group. Estimated cat densities and activity varied between the two islands, with relatively high densities (~4 cats/km 2 ) exhibiting crepuscular diel patterns on Big Pine Key and lower densities (~1 cat/km 2 ) exhibiting nocturnal diel patterns on Key Largo. These differences are most likely related to the higher proportion of house cats on Big Pine relative to Key Largo. Carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios from hair samples of free-ranging cats (n = 43) provided estimates of the proportion of wild and anthropogenic foods in cat diets. At the population level, cats on both islands consumed mostly anthropogenic foods (>80% of the diet), but eight individuals were effective predators of wildlife (>50% of the diet). We provide evidence that cat groups within a population move different distances, exhibit different activity patterns, and that individuals consume wildlife at different rates, which all have implications for managing this invasive predator.

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USGS2016

The structure and composition of Holocene coral reefs in the Middle Florida Keys

The Florida Keys reef tract (FKRT) is the largest coral-reef ecosystem in the continental United States. The modern FKRT extends for 362 kilometers along the coast of South Florida from Dry Tortugas National Park in the southwest, through the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), to Fowey Rocks reef in Biscayne National Park in the northeast. Most reefs along the FKRT are sheltered by the exposed islands of the Florida Keys; however, large channels are located between the islands of the Middle Keys. These openings allow for tidal transport of water from Florida Bay onto reefs in the area. The characteristics of the water masses coming from Florida Bay, which can experience broad swings in temperature, salinity, nutrients, and turbidity over short periods of time, are generally unfavorable or “inimical” to coral growth and reef development. Although reef habitats are ubiquitous throughout most of the Upper and Lower Keys, relatively few modern reefs exist in the Middle Keys most likely because of the impacts of inimical waters from Florida Bay. The reefs that are present in the Middle Keys generally are poorly developed compared with reefs elsewhere in the region. For example, Acropora palmata has been the dominant coral on shallow-water reefs in the Caribbean over the last 1.5 million years until populations of the coral declined throughout the region in recent decades. Although A. palmata was historically abundant in the Florida Keys, it was conspicuously absent from reefs in the Middle Keys. Instead, contemporary reefs in the Middle Keys have been dominated by occasional massive (that is, boulder or head) corals and, more often, small, non-reef-building corals. Holocene reef cores have been collected from many locations along the FKRT; however, despite the potential importance of the history of reefs in the Middle Florida Keys to our understanding of the environmental controls on reef development throughout the FKRT, there are currently no published records of the Holocene history of reefs in the region. The objectives of the present study were to (1) provide general descriptions of unpublished core records from Alligator Reef and (2) collect and describe new Holocene reef cores from two additional locations in the Middle Keys: Sombrero and Tennessee Reefs.

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USGS2016

Community metabolism in shallow coral reef and seagrass ecosystems, lower Florida Keys

Diurnal variation of net community production (NEP) and net community calcification (NEC) were measured in coral reef and seagrass biomes during October 2012 in the lower Florida Keys using a mesocosm enclosure and the oxygen gradient flux technique. Seagrass and coral reef sites showed diurnal variations of NEP and NEC, with positive values at near-seafloor light levels >100–300 µEinstein m-2 s-1. During daylight hours, we detected an average NEP of 12.3 and 8.6 mmol O2 m-2 h-1 at the seagrass and coral reef site, respectively. At night, NEP at the seagrass site was relatively constant, while on the coral reef, net respiration was highest immediately after dusk and decreased during the rest of the night. At the seagrass site, NEC values ranged from 0.20 g CaCO3 m-2 h-1 during daylight to -0.15 g CaCO3 m-2 h-1 at night, and from 0.17 to -0.10 g CaCO3 m-2 h-1 at the coral reef site. There were no significant differences in pH and aragonite saturation states (Ωar) between the seagrass and coral reef sites. Decrease in light levels during thunderstorms significantly decreased NEP, transforming the system from net autotrophic to net heterotrophic.

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USGS2015

USGS research on Atlantic coral reef ecosystems

Overview Coral reefs are massive, biomineralized structures that protect coastal communities by acting as barriers to hazards such as hurricanes and tsunamis. They provide sand for beaches through the natural process of erosion, support tourism and recreational industries, and provide essential habitat for fisheries. The continuing global degradation of coral reef ecosystems is well documented. There is a need for focused, coordinated science to understand the complex physical and biological processes and interactions that are impacting the condition of coral reefs and their ability to respond to a changing environment.

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USGS2015

Investigación del USGS sobre el ecosistema de arrecifes de coral en el Atlántico

Información General Los arrecifes de coral son estructuras sólidas, biomineralizadas que protegen comunidades costeras actuando como barreras protectoras de peligros tales como los huracanes y los tsunamis. Estos proveen arena a las playas a través de procesos naturales de erosión, fomentan la industria del turismo, las actividades recreacionales y proveen hábitats pesqueros esenciales. La conti-nua degradación mundial de ecosistemas de arrecifes de coral está bien documentada. Existe la necesidad de enfoque y organización de la ciencia para entender los procesos complejos físicos y biológicos e interacciones que están afectando el estado de los arrecifes coralinos y su capacidad para responder a un entorno cambiante.

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USGS2014

A century of ocean warming on Florida Keys coral reefs: historic in situ observations

There is strong evidence that global climate change over the last several decades has caused shifts in species distributions, species extinctions, and alterations in the functioning of ecosystems. However, because of high variability on short (i.e., diurnal, seasonal, and annual) timescales as well as the recency of a comprehensive instrumental record, it is difficult to detect or provide evidence for long-term, site-specific trends in ocean temperature. Here we analyze five in situ datasets from Florida Keys coral reef habitats, including historic measurements taken by lighthouse keepers, to provide three independent lines of evidence supporting approximately 0.8 °C of warming in sea surface temperature (SST) over the last century. Results indicate that the warming observed in the records between 1878 and 2012 can be fully accounted for by the warming observed in recent decades (from 1975 to 2007), documented using in situ thermographs on a mid-shore patch reef. The magnitude of warming revealed here is similar to that found in other SST datasets from the region and to that observed in global mean surface temperature. The geologic context and significance of recent ocean warming to coral growth and population dynamics are discussed, as is the future prognosis for the Florida reef tract.

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