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Research about Contra Costa County, California

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Contra Costa County, California.

5 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2020

Distribution and abundance of Aquila chrysaetos (golden eagles) in East Contra Costa County Habitat Conservation Plan/Natural Community Conservation Plan area, California

The East Contra Costa County Habitat Conservation Plan/Natural Community Conservation Plan (HCP/NCCP) Preserve System was designed to protect and enhance ecological diversity and function in eastern Contra Costa County, California. Aquila chrysaetos (golden eagle) is a special-status species expected to benefit from biological goals of the HCP/NCCP. As part of a broader study, we estimated site-occupancy, abundance, and reproduction of golden eagles in the HCP/NCCP inventory area in 2019. We completed 99 surveys and recorded a total of 50 detections of territorial pairs of eagles at 20 (67 percent) of 30 sites (13.9-square-kilometer [km 2 ] plots). Detection probability of territorial pairs was highest in January and February (≥0.75) and lowest in mid-June to late July (<0.50). After correcting for imperfect detection, the expected probability of site-occupancy was 0.69 (standard error [SE] = 0.09), and mean expected abundance was 0.76 pairs per site (SE = 0.16), or 27.4 pairs per 500 km 2 . We found evidence of successful nesting (≥1 young fledged) for 3 (14 percent) of 22 pairs of eagles monitored in 2019. Our study design and baseline results should be useful for future monitoring and conservation of golden eagles in the HCP/NCCP area.

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USGS2019

Ensembles of ETAS models provide optimal operational earthquake forecasting during swarms: Insights from the 2015 San Ramon, California swarm

Earthquake swarms, typically modeled as time-varying changes in background seismicity that are driven by external processes such as fluid flow or aseismic creep, present challenges for operational earthquake forecasting. While the time decay of aftershock sequences can be estimated with the modified Omori law, it is difficult to forecast the temporal behavior of seismicity rates during a swarm. To explore these issues, we apply the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988) to the 2015 San Ramon, California swarm, which lasted several weeks and had almost 100 2≤M≤3.6 earthquakes. We develop 3-day forecasts during the swarm based on an ETAS model fit to all prior seismicity in the region as well as an ETAS model fit only to previous swarms in the region, which is better at capturing the higher background rate during the swarm. We also explore forecasts where the background rate is updated periodically during the swarm using data over different lookback windows and find that generally these models perform better than the models where the background rate is fixed. Finally, we construct ensemble forecasts by combining the different models weighted according to their performance. The ensemble forecasts outperform all of the individual models and allow us to avoid making arbitrary choices at the outset of a swarm as to which single model will perform the best.

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