Geology topics

Research about California

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including California.

At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Multi-scale patterns in occurrence of an ephemeral pool-breeding amphibian

Species distributions are governed by processes occurring at multiple spatial scales. For species with complex life cycles, the needs of all life stages must be met within the dispersal limitations of the species. Multi-scale processes can be particularly important for these species, where small-scale patterns in specific habitat components can affect the distribution of one life stage, whereas large-scale patterns in land cover might better explain the distribution of other life stages. Using a conditional multi-scale model, we evaluated which aspects of the landscape and local environment are most strongly related to occupancy patterns of western spadefoots ( Spea hammondii ). In northern and central California, the proportion of grassland land cover within 2 km of a site was positively related to the occurrence of the northern clade of the western spadefoot. At the pond scale, we found that western spadefoots were more likely to breed in pools with lower pH. Our results indicate that protecting remaining grasslands for adult spadefoots and ensuring multiple pools with diverse characteristics and hydroperiods so at least some pools result in successful breeding will likely be necessary to conserve western spadefoots, especially with a changing climate. Considering the processes that affect species distributions at multiple life stages and spatial scales is an essential component of effective conservation.

California↗

USGS2022

Warming in the upper San Francisco Estuary: Patterns of water temperature change from five decades of data

Temperature is a key controlling variable from subcellular to ecosystem scales. Thus, climatic warming is expected to have broad impacts, especially in economically and ecologically valuable systems such as estuaries. The heavily managed upper San Francisco Estuary supplies water to millions of people and is home to fish species of high conservation, commercial, and recreational interest. Despite a long monitoring record (> 50 yr), we do not yet know how water temperatures have already changed or how trends vary spatially or seasonally. We fit generalized additive models on an integrated database of discrete water temperature observations to estimate long-term trends with spatio-seasonal variability. We found that water temperatures have increased 0.017°C yr −1 on average over the past 50 yr. Rates of temperature change have varied over time, but warming was predominant. Temperature increases were most widespread in the late-fall to winter (November to February) and mid-spring (April to June), coinciding with the winter development of juvenile Chinook salmon and spring spawning window of the endangered delta smelt. Warming was fastest in the northern regions, a key fish migration corridor with important tidal wetland habitat. However, no long-term temperature trends were detected in October and were only observed in some regions in May, July, and August. These results can help identify optimal areas for restoration or refugia to buffer the effects of a warming climate, and the methods can be leveraged to understand the spatiotemporal variability in climate warming patterns in other aquatic systems.

California↗

USGS2022

Defining relevant conservation targets for the endangered Southern California distinct population segment of the mountain yellow-legged frog (Rana muscosa)

The endangered mountain yellow-legged frog ( Rana muscosa ) has been reduced to <10 isolated populations in the wild. Due to frequent catastrophic events (floods, droughts, wildfires), the recent dynamics of these populations have been erratic, making the future of the species highly uncertain. In 2018, a recovery plan was developed to improve the species status by reducing the impacts of various threats (predation, disease, habitat destruction), as well as reinforcing wild populations through the reintroduction of captive-bred frogs. The short-term goal stated in this plan was to reach a minimum of 20 populations of 50 adults each (hereafter, the 20/50 target ), before the species can be considered for downlisting from the U.S. Endangered Species Act. However, there is no guarantee that this 20/50 target will be sufficient to ensure the species persistence in the long run. Using 19 years of mark-recapture data, we estimated populations' demographic trends and assessed the viability of R. muscosa from a starting state of 20 populations of 50 adults each (i.e., the downlisting criteria). Our results reveal that, from this 20/50 state , the species has high chances of persistence only at a short time horizon (50 years). Moreover, >80% of populations would be extinct 50 years later. Therefore, the species will not be able to persist without implementation of the reintroduction program. We found that it is more important to increase the number of suitable sites occupied by R. muscosa than to simply reinforce or augment existing populations. Expanding the current distribution by establishing new populations at suitable sites, even after the “20 populations” mark has been reached, would increase the likelihood of the species' persistence in the longer term.

California↗

USGS2022

Rockfall kinematics from massive rock cliffs: Outlier boulders and flyrock from Whitney Portal, California, rockfalls

Geologic conditions and topographic setting are among the most critical factors for assessing rockfall hazards. However, other subtle features of rockfall motion may also govern the runout of rockfall debris, particularly for those sourced from massive cliffs where debris can have substantial momentum during transport. Rocks may undergo collisions with trees and talus boulders, with the latter potentially generating flyrock—launched rock pieces resulting from boulder collisions that follow distinctively different paths than the majority of debris. Collectively, these intricacies of rockfall kinematics may substantially govern the hazards expected from rockfall to both persons and infrastructure located beneath steep cliffs. Here, we investigate the kinematics, including outlier boulder and flyrock trajectories, of seismically triggered rockfalls on 24 June 2020 that damaged campground facilities near Whitney Portal, CA, a heavily used outdoor recreation gateway to the Sierra Nevada mountains. Our results, obtained in part by rockfall runout model simulations, indicate that outlier boulder trajectories resulted from opportunities provided by less steep terrain beyond the talus edge. The influence of trees, initially thought to have served a protective capacity in attenuating rockfall energy, appears to have been negligible for the large boulder volumes (>50 m 3 ) mobilized, although they did potentially deflect the trajectory of flyrock debris. Rockfall outlier boulders from the event were comparable in volume and runout distance to prehistoric boulders located beyond the talus slope, thereby providing some level of confidence in the use of a single rockfall shadow angle for estimating future rockfall hazards at the site.

California↗

USGS2022

Rainfall triggering of post-fire debris flows over a 28-year period near El Portal, California, USA

Wildfires frequently affect the steep hillslopes near El Portal, California (United States), a small community established during the California Gold Rush in the mid-1800s. In addition to the historical significance of El Portal, State Route 140 (SR 140) is a major transportation and economic corridor connecting the San Joaquin Valley to Yosemite National Park (YNP). In 2019, an estimated 4.5 million tourists visited and accessed YNP via SR 140. In the years after wildfires, the burned watersheds produced debris flows during intense rainfall, impacting the El Portal community and motorists traveling on SR 140 and local roads. The steepness of the hillslopes and confinement of the valley limit options for mitigating debris-flow risk. As such, emergency managers are left with evacuation orders or temporary road closures as the best options for risk reduction. The effectiveness of these options is highly dependent on establishing an accurate local rainfall intensity-duration threshold that officials can use to guide emergency response actions and timing. We present an overview of the rainfall conditions that initiated 12 post-fire debris-flow events near El Portal from 1991 to 2018 and objectively define rainfall intensity-duration thresholds from triggering rainfall rates. Our results highlight the modest rainfall rates that triggered debris flows in these steep watersheds, while radar data from more recent events (2012–2018) portray the spatial variability of intense rainfall in the area. Additional rainfall monitoring is needed to provide a robust rainfall threshold that will effectively mitigate risk for residents and motorists while minimizing the impact of road closures and evacuations.

California↗

USGS2022

Observation-constrained multicycle dynamic models of the southern San Andreas and the northern San Jacinto Faults: Addressing complexity in paleoearthquake extent and recurrence with realistic 2D fault geometry

Understanding mechanical conditions that lead to complexity in earthquakes is important to seismic hazard analysis. In this study, we simulate physics-based multicycle dynamic models of the San Andreas fault (Carrizo through San Bernardino sections) and the San Jacinto fault (Claremont and Clark strands). We focus on a complex fault geometry based on the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model and its effect over multiple earthquake cycles. Using geodetically derived strain rates, we validate the models against geologic slip rates and recurrence intervals at various paleoseismic sites. We find that the interactions among fault geometry, dynamic rupture and interseismic stress accumulation produce stress heterogeneities, leading to rupture segmentation and variability in earthquake recurrence. Our models produce earthquakes with rupture extents similar to a recent comprehensive paleoseismic catalog. The “earthquake gates” of the Big Bend and the Cajon Pass occasionally impede dynamic ruptures. The angle of compression, which is the subtraction of the maximum shear strain rate direction from the local fault strike, can better determine the likelihood of the impedance of restraining bends to dynamic ruptures. Because the Big Bend has an angle of compression of ∼20°, ruptures that traverse the Big Bend, like the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, are more frequent than expected based on empirical relations which predict the ∼40° restraining bend to terminate most ruptures. Our models indicate that large ruptures tend to initiate north of the Big Bend and propagate southwards, similar to the 1857 earthquake, providing critical information for ground shaking assessment in the region.

California↗

USGS2022

Geologic and geomorphic evidence for multi-phase history of strands of the San Andreas fault through the San Gorgonio Pass structural knot, southern California

The San Gorgonio Pass region of southern California is a locus of extensive Quaternary deformation within a multi-strand section of the San Andreas fault zone. The geomorphology of the San Gorgonio Pass region reflects the complicated history of geologic events in the formation of this structurally complex region. We define fault-bounded blocks in San Gorgonio Pass and focus on two that are characterized by extensive crystalline bedrock outcrops with similar bedrock lithologies. These two blocks are separated by the San Bernardino strand of the San Andreas fault. Morphometric variables, including local relief, slope, slope distribution, and surface roughness, consistently demonstrate distinctions between the bedrock upland regions of the two blocks. Geologic observations of the region highlight differences in Quaternary units within the two blocks, reflective of the differing surficial processes active in each block. Within the Kitching Peak block, the morphology highlights a lineament that we informally name the Lion Canyon lineament. This boundary more clearly differentiates the two regions, as compared to the mapped San Bernardino strand, and may represent the previously active strand or bounding structure in this section. The distinction in morphology and surficial processes leads to our interpretation that the Kitching Peak and Pisgah Peak blocks have experienced different uplift histories. This further leads to the conclusion that the San Bernardino strand, broadly defined, has been integrated, at some point in the past, with the Banning strand, allowing for through-going rupture along the fault system. This connectivity may have occurred along the Burro Flats section of the San Bernardino strand or the Lion Canyon lineament. The fault connection along the mapped trace of the San Bernardino strand is not currently evident at the surface, however, suggesting that the integration has been disrupted. We propose this is due to intervals of N-S compression in the region, manifest as slip along the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone and other regional faults. We present evidence for lateral displacement along the San Bernardino and Banning strands of the San Andreas fault, discuss the implications of these displacements, and propose a sequence of fault activity, including multiple phases of activity along the San Bernardino and Banning strand pathway to account for the structural complexity and lack of surficial fault continuity.

California↗

USGS2022

Joint-species analysis reveals potential displacement of native fishes by non-native fishes within the Santa Ana River, California

Accurate estimates of abundance are a cornerstone for resource managers to make effective decisions for fish conservation. However, multiple sampling methods often are required to sample fish communities, and ignoring the detection process can create substantial bias in latent state parameter estimation (e.g., abundance, survival). We developed a joint-species N -mixture model that integrated snorkel, seining, and electrofishing surveys to estimate factors affecting native and non-native fish distributions in the Santa Ana River, California. We found through data integration that native Santa Ana sucker ( Catostomus santaanae ) and arroyo chub ( Gila orcuttii ) were most abundant in wide stream channels, and the abundance of both native fishes were negatively correlated with non-native largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ). Our results highlight the power of integrating multiple data sets into a single analysis and incorporating among-species correlation into abundance modeling. Our results also highlight a pattern of native fish declines that coincides with an expanding largemouth bass population, a concern for the management of native aquatic communities within the Santa Ana River.

California↗

USGS2022

Least Bell's Vireos and Southwestern Willow Flycatchers at the San Luis Rey flood risk management project area in San Diego County, California: Breeding activities and habitat use—2021 Annual report

Executive Summary Surveys and monitoring for the endangered Least Bell’s Vireo ( Vireo bellii pusillus ; vireo) were done at the San Luis Rey Flood Risk Management Project Area (Project Area) in the city of Oceanside, San Diego County, California, between April 4 and August 4, 2021. We completed four protocol surveys during the breeding season, supplemented by weekly territory monitoring visits. We identified a total of 122 territorial male vireos; 111 were confirmed as paired and 8 were confirmed as single males. For the remaining three territories, we were unable to confirm pair status. Five transient vireos were detected in 2021. The vireo population in the Project Area decreased by 24 percent from 2020 to 2021. Vireo populations decreased across San Diego County, with a 14-percent decrease documented at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP); a 5-percent decrease on the Otay River; a 6-percent decrease on the middle San Luis Rey River; and a 44-percent decrease at Marine Corps Air Station (although this decrease was likely exaggerated by large-scale vegetation clearing that occurred prior to the 2021 breeding season). We used an index of treatment (Treatment Index) to evaluate the impact of on-going vegetation clearing on the Project Area vireo population. The Treatment Index measures the cumulative effect of vegetation treatment within a territory (since 2005) by using the percent area treated weighted by the number of years since treatment. We found that the Treatment Index for unoccupied habitat was more than two times that of occupied habitat, indicating that vireos selected less treated habitat in which to settle. We monitored vireo nests at three general site types: (1) within the flood channel where exotic and native vegetation removal has occurred regularly (Channel), (2) three sites next to the flood channel where limited exotic and native vegetation removal has occurred (Off-channel), and (3) three sites that have been actively restored by planting native vegetation (Restoration). Nesting activity was monitored in 85 territories, 8 of which were occupied by single males. Of the completed nests, 39 percent were successful, and nest success did not differ among the three sites. Clutch size was greater in the Channel than the Off-channel sites, and the proportion of hatchlings that fledged was greater in Off-channel sites than Channel and Restoration sites. There were no other nest-level differences detected among site types, nor were there any differences in territory-level measures of productivity (young fledged per pair, double-brooding) among the sites. Overall, breeding success and productivity were slightly lower in 2021 than in 2020, with 66 percent of pairs fledgling at least one young and pairs fledging an average of 1.9±1.7 young. To investigate if the cumulative years of treatment had an impact on vireo reproductive effort, we looked at the effects of the Treatment Index on reproductive parameters. Results from generalized linear models indicated that treatment did not have an effect on vireo nesting effort or the number of vireo fledglings per pair produced in 2021. Similarly, our analysis of nest survival for 2021 revealed no effect of Treatment Index on daily survival rate. Analysis of vegetation data collected at vireo nests from 2006 to 2021 did not indicate an effect of vegetation at the nest on daily survival rate. We also found no differences in nest-placement characteristics among site types or successful/unsuccessful nests. Red/arroyo willow ( Salix laevigata or Salix lasiolepis ) was the species most commonly selected for nesting by vireos in all three site types. Black willow ( Salix gooddingii ) and mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ) also were commonly used. Vireos used a wider variety of species for nesting in Channel and Off-channel sites (seven and eight species, respectively) compared with Restoration sites (three species).

California↗

USGS2022

Diverse native island flora shows rapid initial passive recovery after exotic herbivore removal on Santa Rosa Island, California

Removing exotic vertebrates from islands is an increasingly common and potentially effective strategy for protecting biodiversity. Yet, surprisingly few studies evaluate large-scale effects of island removals on native plants. We surveyed 431 hectares of habitat in 7 canyons on Santa Rosa Island just after exotic herbivore control began (1994–1996), and again after two herbivore species had been eradicated and ~ 90% of herbivores removed (2010–2012). We searched for 68 endemic and/or rare native plant taxa, mapping and recording abundances for the 39 found. Initially most of these 39 species were absent from most canyons (79.9% species-canyon combinations). Nearly 35% of absences changed to presences by 2010–2012, while only 5.5% of presences changed to absences. Thirty-six of these 39 species increased in total area, and 38 increased in total abundance. Graminoids increased more and shrubs less than other life histories, for both apparent colonizations and abundances. Beta diversity and species turnover between canyons was high at both surveys. Although a diversity of the 39 located taxa showed substantial gains, nearly half remained uncommon in 2010–2012. These results reinforce the devastating effects of exotic vertebrate herbivores on island native plants, particularly long-lived, slow-growing species. They also demonstrate significant potential benefits of exotic herbivore removal even without other active restoration, not only for vegetative cover but for a number of rare taxa. Our surveys were more spatially extensive than most post-removal studies; high spatial turnover in these data suggests that larger-scale monitoring may be critical to capture full effects of exotic animal removal.

California↗

USGS2022

Empirical map-based nonergodic models of site response in the greater Los Angeles area

We develop empirical estimates of site response at seismic stations in the Los Angeles area using recorded ground motions from 414 M 3–7.3 earthquakes in southern California. The data are from a combination of the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 project, the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes, and about 10,000 newly processed records. We estimate site response using an iterative mixed‐effects residuals partitioning approach, accounting for azimuthal variations in anelastic attenuation and potential bias due to spatial clusters of colocated earthquakes. This process yields site response for peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudospectral acceleration relative to a 760 m/s shear‐wave velocity ( ⁠ V S "> V V S "> s ) reference condition. We employ regression kriging to generate a spatially continuous site response model, using the linear site and basin terms from Boore et al. (2014) as the background model, which depend on V S "> V V S "> s V S "> 30 ⁠ and depth to the 1 km/s V S "> V V S "> s isosurface. This is different from past approaches to nonergodic models, in which spatially varying coefficients are regressed. We validate the model using stations in the Community Seismic Network (CSN) that are in the middle of our model spatial domain but were not considered in model development, finding strong agreement between the interpolated model and CSN data for long periods. Our model could be implemented in regional seismic hazard analyses, which would lead to improvements especially at long return periods. Our site response model also has potential to improve both ground‐motion accuracy and warning times for the U.S. Geological Survey ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system. For a point‐source EEW simulation of the 1994 M 6.7 Northridge earthquake, our model produces ground motions more consistent with the ground‐truth ShakeMap and would alert areas with high population density such as downtown Los Angeles at lower estimated magnitudes (i.e., sooner) than an ergodic model for a modified Mercalli intensity 4.5 alerting threshold.

California↗

USGS2022

Characterizing the oral and distal gut microbiota of the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) to enhance conservation practice

The southern sea otter ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) is a threatened sub-species in coastal ecosystems. To understand better the role of diet, monitor health, and enhance management of this and other marine mammal species, we characterized the oral (gingival) and distal gut (rectal and fecal) microbiota of 158 wild southern sea otters living off the coast of central California, USA, and 12 captive sea otters, some of which were included in a diet shift experiment. We found that the sea otter fecal microbiota was distinct from that of three other otter species, and that captivity does not significantly alter the community structure of the sea otter gingival or distal gut microbiota. Metagenomic analysis unexpectedly revealed that the majority of sea otter fecal DNA is derived from prey, rather than from indigenous bacteria or host cells as with most other mammals. We speculate that a reduced bacterial biomass in the sea otter gut reflects rapid gut transit time and a particular strategy for foraging and energy harvest. This study establishes a reference for the healthy sea otter microbiota, highlights how a marine lifestyle may shape the mammalian microbiota, and may inform future health assessments and conservation management of sea otter populations.

California↗

USGS2022

Hydrogeologic characterization of the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed, Santa Barbara County, California

The San Antonio Creek Valley watershed (SACVW) is located in western Santa Barbara County, about 15 miles south of Santa Maria and 55 miles north of Santa Barbara, California. The SACVW is about 135 square miles and encompasses the San Antonio Creek Valley groundwater basin; the SACVW is separated from adjacent groundwater basins by the Casmalia and Solomon Hills to the north, and the Purisima Hills to the south. At the western, downstream part of the valley, uplifted, consolidated rocks cause groundwater to discharge at land surface at Barka Slough. Since the late 1800s, groundwater has been the primary source of water for agricultural, military, municipal, and domestic uses. Groundwater withdrawal by pumping exceeded the amount of water replenishing the aquifer system during water years 1948–2018, causing groundwater-level declines of more than 150 feet in parts of the valley and reducing base flow at Barka Slough. Reliance on groundwater for agricultural water use (primarily for the irrigation and frost protection of vineyards, and fruit and berry crops) continues to strain the sustainability of the groundwater system. Through a cooperative agreement, the Santa Barbara County Water Agency and Vandenberg Space Force Base invited the U.S. Geological Survey to address declines in groundwater levels, develop a better understanding of the hydrogeologic system, and provide tools to help evaluate and manage the effects of future development of the San Antonio Creek Valley groundwater basin within the encompassing San Antonio Creek Valley watershed (SACVW). The objectives of this study were to (1) refine the hydrogeologic framework of the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed, (2) quantify the hydrologic budget of the valley, and (3) develop hydrologic modeling tools to evaluate and aid in managing the groundwater resource. This report focuses on the first and second objectives to construct a hydrogeologic framework and characterize the historical and present-day hydrologic conditions of the SACVW during water years 1948–2018. As part of the second objective, work included quantifying the hydrologic budget and evaluating the hydrogeologic system using a combination of existing data and geologic and hydrologic data collected for this study. The groundwater-flow system in the SACVW consists of five hydrogeologic units. These separate water-bearing units were identified based on hydrogeologic properties, such as sediment grain size, vertical-head differences in multiple-depth, monitoring-well sites, long-term groundwater level responses to pumping and climate, and the chemical character of groundwater and groundwater age in the mostly semi-consolidated to unconsolidated basin-fill sediments. The hydrogeologic units that comprise the different aquifers vary in their lithologic composition. The upper and lower aquifers (upper Paso Robles Formation, and lower Paso Robles Formation and Careaga Sandstone, respectively) are relatively coarse grained and are comprised of sand, gravel, and clay; the middle confining unit (the middle Paso Robles Formation) is relatively fine grained and is comprised of primarily clay, silt, and sand. The Pezzoni-Casmalia and Los Alamos faults, which are inferred to transect the SACVW between the western and eastern areas of the valley floor, do not appear to substantially affect the groundwater system. Present-day recharge to the study area occurs primarily as infiltration from precipitation and streams in the upland areas of the Casmalia Hills and Solomon Hills, and along the main channel of San Antonio Creek. Reported estimates of annual natural recharge during water years 1948–2018 generally ranged from about 5,000 acre-feet to more than about 30,000 acre-feet. Stable and radioactive isotopes show that groundwater from the lower aquifer is old and probably was recharged as infiltration from precipitation and streams in the eastern upland areas of the Solomon Hills; however, the infiltration and recharge from these sources probably does not occur under present-day climatic conditions. Anthropogenic recharge, from sources such as return flow from agricultural irrigation, municipal water systems, and wastewater effluent, was estimated to range from about 600 acre-feet in 1948 to about 6,600 acre-feet in 2018. The average annual amount of groundwater removed from the SACVW by pumping during 1948–2018 was estimated to be about 17,200 acre-feet per year, increasing from about 3,000 acre-feet in 1948 to about 32,600 acre-feet in 2018. Estimates of annual pumpage generally exceeded estimates of annual recharge beginning in the mid-1970s and continuing through 2018. The predominant direction of groundwater flow under historical and present-day conditions was from the eastern uplands in the Solomon Hills to the west along San Antonio Creek to the discharge area in Barka Slough, and from the northern uplands in the Casmalia Hills south to San Antonio Creek. Pumpage since the early 1900s and the subsequent groundwater-level declines have substantially reduced the amount of natural groundwater discharge at Barka Slough. Estimates of base flow to San Antonio Creek at the western, downstream extent of the SACVW have varied over time in response to changes in groundwater pumpage and climate; however, there was an overall decline in base flow during water years 1956–2018, decreasing from an average of about 1,700 acre-feet per year during 1956–69, to about 300 acre-feet per year during 2016–18. The long-term extraction of groundwater correlates with a decrease in groundwater levels by more than about 150 feet since the early 1940s in the eastern part of the basin near Los Alamos, and as much as about 50 feet in the upland areas and in the western part of the basin. At Barka Slough, groundwater levels have declined below land surface in some places, altering native riparian vegetation in and around the slough. Surface-water quality in the SACVW varied depending on location and the time of year the samples were collected and on the amount of annual precipitation Most groundwater in the SACVW was calcium-bicarbonate-type water with total dissolved-solids concentrations of about 500–800 milligrams per liter generally representing water naturally recharged as infiltration from precipitation and streams. Total dissolved-solids concentrations in some wells ranged from 800 to 8,000 milligrams per liter, suggesting mixing of naturally recharged infiltrated water with water associated with oil-bearing geologic formations, agricultural products, or the evaporation of shallow groundwater. Concentrations of total dissolved solids and the chemical constituents chloride, nitrate plus nitrite (as nitrogen), calcium, and magnesium at selected wells generally increased during water years 1980–2018; increasing concentrations of these constituents may be associated with the expansion of agriculture in the watershed over time and the corresponding increase in the use of nitrates and calcium- and magnesium-based fertilizers and soil additives in modern agricultural practices. The predominant direction of groundwater flow during historical and present-day conditions was from the eastern uplands in the Solomon Hills to the west along San Antonio Creek toward Barka Slough, and from the western uplands in the Casmalia Hills south to San Antonio Creek. The age of groundwater in the SACVW was evaluated using radioactive isotopes, and the flow of groundwater within the SACVW was evaluated using radioactive and stable isotopes. Modern groundwater (recharged after 1952) was generally found adjacent to San Antonio Creek and its tributaries in wells with perforated depths that averaged about 270 feet below land surface. Pre-modern groundwater (recharged before 1952) was found in wells that had average perforation depths of about 540 ft below land surface. Pre-modern groundwater identified in wells in the eastern upland area is interpreted to have had long, slow travel times to the western part of the SACVW where it was eventually discharged as base flow at Barka Slough or extracted as groundwater pumpage.

California↗

USGS2022

Hydrologic and geochemical characterization of the Petaluma River watershed, Sonoma County, California

Executive Summary The objectives of the study are to (1) develop an updated assessment of the hydrogeology and geochemistry of the Petaluma valley watershed (PVW) and (2) develop an integrated hydrologic model for the PVW. The purpose of this report is to describe the conceptual model of the hydrologic, hydrogeologic, and water-quality characteristics of the PVW and a numerical groundwater-flow model of PVW.

California↗

USGS2022

Empirically validated drought vulnerability mapping in the mixed conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada

Severe droughts are predicted to become more frequent in the future, and the consequences of such droughts on forests can be dramatic, resulting in massive tree mortality, rapid change in forest structure and composition, and substantially increased risk of catastrophic fire. Forest managers have tools at their disposal to try to mitigate these effects but are often faced with limited resources, forcing them to make choices about which parts of the landscape to target for treatment. Such planning can greatly benefit from landscape vulnerability assessments, but many existing vulnerability analyses are unvalidated and not grounded in robust empirical datasets. We combined robust sets of ground-based plot and remote sensing data, collected during the 2012–2016 California drought, to develop rigorously validated tools for assessing forest vulnerability to drought-related canopy tree mortality for the mixed conifer forests of the Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks and potentially for mixed conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada as a whole. Validation was carried out using a large external dataset. The best models included normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, and species identity. Models indicated that tree survival probability decreased with greenness (as measured by NDVI) and elevation, particularly if trees were growing slowly. Overall, models showed good calibration and validation, especially for Abies concolor , which comprise a large majority of the trees in many mixed conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada. Our models tended to overestimate mortality risk for Calocedrus decurrens and underestimate risk for pine species, in the latter case probably due to pine bark beetle outbreak dynamics. Validation results indicated dangers of overfitting, as well as showing that the inclusion of trees already under attack by bark beetles at the time of sampling can give false confidence in model strength, while also biasing predictions. These vulnerability tools should be useful to forest managers trying to assess which parts of their landscape were vulnerable during the 2012–2016 drought, and, with additional validation, may prove useful for ongoing assessments and predictions of future forest vulnerability.

California↗

USGS2022

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water resources of the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed, Santa Barbara County, California

In the San Antonio Creek Valley watershed (SACVW), western Santa Barbara County, California, groundwater is the primary source of water for agricultural irrigation, the town of Los Alamos, and supplemental water to Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB). Groundwater pumpage has increased since the 1970s as non-irrigated agricultural land has been converted to irrigated land and as local pumping for municipal use has increased. This increase in groundwater use has resulted in declining groundwater levels, adjustments in surface-water flows and species habitats, and changes in water quality. Water managers are addressing the challenges of meeting this increased demand while maintaining sustainable groundwater supplies. To address these challenges, Santa Barbara County Water Agency, Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) undertook a cooperative study to characterize the integrated hydrologic system of the SACVW and develop tools to better understand and manage the groundwater system. The objectives of this study were to improve the understanding of the integrated hydrologic system and incorporate the understanding into an integrated groundwater and surface-water flow model that can be used to help manage the water resources in the SACVW. The San Antonio Creek integrated model (SACIM) was developed using the USGS coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model to simulate the hydrologic system of the SACVW and provide annual and average water budgets for 1948–2018 water years. Results from the SACIM indicated that between 1948 and 2018, total groundwater from storage (storage depletion) for the period was 453,300 acre-feet (acre-ft). Agricultural pumpage was the largest discharge and accounted for a total of 1,020,000 acre-ft of groundwater. Increased pumpage since the mid-1980s (of which agricultural pumpage is the primary component) is tied to an increased rate of storage depletion and reduced rates of groundwater evapotranspiration and surface leakage (groundwater discharge to the surface and soil zone). The increased pumpage also reduced subsurface inflow to Barka Slough, resulting in a decline in upward flow through the underlying hydrogeologic units and surface leakage. In addition to quantifying historical changes in the integrated hydrologic system, the SACIM is a tool than can be used by water managers to evaluate the effects of different climatic and hydrologic conditions and management strategies.

California↗

USGS2022

Crowding, climate, and the case for social distancing among trees

In an emerging era of megadisturbance, bolstering forest resilience to wildfire, insects, and drought has become a central objective in many western forests. Climate has received considerable attention as a driver of these disturbances, but few studies have examined the complexities of climate–vegetation–disturbance interactions. Current strategies for creating resilient forests often rely on retrospective approaches, seeking to impart resilience by restoring historical conditions to contemporary landscapes, but historical conditions are becoming increasingly unattainable amidst modern bioclimatic conditions. What becomes an appropriate benchmark for resilience when we have novel forests, rapidly changing climate, and unprecedented disturbance regimes? We combined two longitudinal datasets—each representing some of the most comprehensive spatially explicit, annual tree mortality data in existence—in a post-hoc factorial design to examine the nonlinear relationships between fire, climate, forest spatial structure, and bark beetles. We found that while prefire drought elevated mortality risk, advantageous local neighborhoods could offset these effects. Surprisingly, mortality risk ( P m ) was higher in crowded local neighborhoods that burned in wet years ( P m = 42%) compared with sparse neighborhoods that burned during drought ( P m = 30%). Risk of beetle attack was also increased by drought, but lower conspecific crowding impeded the otherwise positive interaction between fire and beetle attack. Antecedent fire increased drought-related mortality over short timespans (<7 years) but reduced mortality over longer intervals. These results clarify interacting disturbance dynamics and provide a mechanistic underpinning for forest restoration strategies. Importantly, they demonstrate the potential for managed fire and silvicultural strategies to offset climate effects and bolster resilience to fire, beetles, and drought.

California↗

USGS2022

Ready for real time: Performance of Global Navigation Satellite System in 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, rapid response products

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs) have undergone notable advancement in the last few decades, leading to the availability of a dataset with capabilities well beyond its original intended purpose. The proliferation of high‐rate (1 Hz or greater) GNSS receivers in areas of seismological interest now allows for routine consideration of dynamic earthquake ground motions, with centimeter‐level displacement accuracy via precise point positioning methods. Real‐time (RT) GNSS observations, from stations that are both telemetered and processed to displacement with minimal latency, have lower accuracy compared to post‐processed (PP) GNSS displacements due to imprecise knowledge of atmospheric conditions, satellite clocks, and satellite orbits in RT. Whether the quality of RT high‐rate GNSS is sufficient for use in rapid response products remains to be thoroughly examined. Here, we highlight RT GNSS displacement time series processed during the 2019 M w "> M w Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake in the context of common rapid‐response products, magnitude estimation, and kinematic fault‐slip models. We discuss how these data can be used to supplement RT seismic data for rapid characterization of significant earthquakes. We find that kinematic fault‐slip models using RT GNSS data retain the general spatiotemporal characteristics of those with PP data, with subtle differences in size and amplitude of modeled slip asperities. We demonstrate the effect of these rapid seismic source models using RT GNSS data on the U.S. Geological Survey product ShakeMap—a downstream ground‐motion prediction algorithm informed by the rupture dimensions estimated in the slip model. Discrepancies in the ShakeMap estimate are minor, within ±12% change, with the most severe variation at the fault edges. Our analysis suggests that, when used in conjunction with available seismic data sources, RT GNSS is sufficient and valuable for rapid earthquake characterization.

California↗