Geology topics

Research about California

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including California.

At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Simulating burn severity maps at 30 meters in two forested regions in California

Climate change is altering wildfire behavior and vegetation regimes in California’s forested ecosystems. Present day fires are seeing an increase in high burn severity area and high severity patch size. The ability to predict future burn severity patterns would support better policy and land management decisions. Here we demonstrate a methodology to first, statistically estimate individual burn severity classes at 30 meters and second, cluster and smooth high severity patches onto a landscape. Our goal here was not to exactly replicate observed burn severity maps, but rather to utilize observed maps as one realization of a random process dependent on climate, topography, fire weather, and fuels, to inform creation of additional realizations through our simulation technique. We developed two sets of empirical models with two different vegetation datasets to test if coarse vegetation could accurately model for burn severity. While visual acuity can be used to assess the performance of our simulation process, we also employ the Ripley’s K function to compare spatial point processes at different scales to test if the simulation is capturing an appropriate amount of clustering. We utilize FRAGSTATS to obtain high severity patch metrics to test the contiguity of our high severity simulation. Ripley’s K function helped identify the number of clustering iterations and FRAGSTATS showed how different focal window sizes affected our ability to cluster high severity patches. High severity patch simulations was comparable between the coarse and fine resolution vegetation datasets. Improving our ability to simulate burn severity will help advance our understanding of the potential influence of land and fuels management on ecosystem-level response variables that are important for decision-makers. Simulated burn severity maps can support managing habitat and estimating risks of habitat loss, protecting infrastructure and homes, improving future wildfire emissions projections, and better mapping and planning for fuels treatment scenarios.

California↗

USGS2022

A study on the effect of site response on California seismic hazard map assessment

Prior studies have repeatedly shown that probabilistic seismic hazard maps from several different countries predict higher shaking than that observed. Previous map assessments have not, however, considered the influence of site response on hazard. Seismologists have long acknowledged the influence of near-surface geology, in particular low-impedance sediment layers, on earthquake ground-motion at frequencies of engineering concern. Although the overall effects of site response are complex, modern ground-motion models (GMMs) account for site effects using terms based on V S30 , the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the Earth’s surface. In this study, we consider general implications of incorporating site terms from modern GMMs using site-specific V S30 as a proxy in probabilistic seismic hazard maps for California. At the long periods (1–5 s) that affect tall buildings, site terms amplify the mapped hazard by factors of 1–3 at many sites relative to maps calculated for the standard reference soft-rock site condition, V S30 = 760 m/s. However, at the short periods of ground-motion that are the main contributors to peak ground acceleration (PGA) and thus affect smaller structures, only negligible effects occur due to nonlinear deamplification of strong ground-motion at high frequencies. Nonlinear deamplification increases as the shaking level increases. For very strong shaking, deamplification can overcome the linear amplification, yielding net deamplification. We explore the implications of these results for the evaluation of hazard maps. Because site effects do not change the maps appreciably at short periods, we can exclude site response as an explanation for why the maps overpredict historically observed shaking as captured by the California Historical Intensity Mapping Project (CHIMP) dataset. The results are expected to be generalizable to regions that are comparable to California in terms of structure and seismicity rates. In low-to-moderate-seismicity regions where the hazard reflects weaker shaking, nonlinear site response is expected to be less important for the hazard.

California↗

USGS2022

Testing the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system using synthesized earthquake sequences

We test the behavior of the United States (US) West Coast ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system during temporally close earthquake pairs to understand current performance and limitations. We consider performance metrics based on source parameter and ground‐motion forecast accuracy, as well as on alerting timeliness. We generate ground‐motion times series for synthesized earthquake sequences from real data by combining the signals from pairs of well‐recorded earthquakes (⁠4.4≤M≤7.1⁠) using time shifts ranging from −60 to +180 s. We examine fore‐ and aftershock sequences, near‐simultaneous events in different source regions, and simulated out‐of‐network and offshore earthquakes. We find that the operational ShakeAlert algorithms Earthquake Point‐source Integrated Code (EPIC) and Finite‐Fault Rupture Detector (FinDer) and the Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) method perform largely as expected: EPIC provides the best source location estimates and is often fastest but can underestimate magnitudes or, in extreme cases, miss large earthquakes; FinDer provides real‐time line‐source models and unsaturated magnitude estimates for large earthquakes but currently cannot process concurrent events and may mislocate offshore earthquakes; PLUM identifies pockets of strong ground motion, but can overestimate alert areas. Implications for system performance are: (1) spatially and temporally close events are difficult to identify separately; (2) challenging scenarios with foreshocks that are close in space and time can lead to missed alerts for large earthquakes; and (3) in these situations the algorithms can often estimate ground motion better than source parameters. To improve EEW, our work suggests revisiting the current algorithm weighting in ShakeAlert, to continue developments that focus on using ground‐motion data to aggregate alerts from multiple algorithms, and to investigate methods to optimally leverage algorithm ground‐motion estimates. For testing and certification of EEW performance in ShakeAlert and other EEW systems where applicable, we also suggest that 25 of our 73 scenarios become part of the baseline data set.

California↗

USGS2022

Predator movements in relation to habitat features reveal vulnerability of duck nests to predation

Nest predation is the main cause of nest failure for ducks. Understanding how habitat features influence predator movements may facilitate management of upland and wetland breeding habitats that reduces predator encounter rates with duck nests and increases nest survival rates. For 1618 duck nests, nest survival increased with distance to phragmites ( Phragmites australis ), shrubs, telephone poles, human structures, and canals, but not for four other habitat features. Using GPS collars, we tracked 25 raccoons ( Procyon lotor ) and 16 striped skunks ( Mephitis mephitis ) over 4 years during waterfowl breeding and found marked differences in how these predators were located relative to specific habitat features; moreover, the probability of duck nests being encountered by predators differed by species. Specifically, proximity to canals, wetlands, trees, levees/roads, human structures, shrubs, and telephone poles increased the likelihood of a nest being encountered by collared raccoons. For collared skunks, nests were more likely to be encountered if they were closer to canals, trees, and shrubs, and farther from wetlands and human structures. Most predator encounters with duck nests were attributable to a few individuals; 29.2% of raccoons and 38.5% of skunks were responsible for 95.6% of total nest encounters. During the central span of duck nesting (April 17–June 14: 58 nights), these seven raccoons and five skunks encountered >1 nest on 50.8 ± 29.2% (mean ± SD) and 41.5 ± 28.3% of nights, respectively, and of those nights individual raccoons and skunks averaged 2.60 ± 1.28 and 2.50 ± 1.09 nest encounters/night, respectively. For collared predators that encountered >1 nest, a higher proportion of nests encountered by skunks had evidence of predation (51.9 ± 26.6%) compared to nests encountered by raccoons (22.3 ± 17.1%). Because duck eggs were most likely consumed as raccoons and skunks opportunistically discovered nests, managing the habitat features those predators most strongly associated with could potentially reduce rates of egg predation.

California↗

USGS2022

Combining eddy covariance and chamber methods to better constrain CO2 and CH4 fluxes across a heterogeneous restored tidal wetland

Tidal wetlands play an important role in global carbon cycling by storing carbon in sediment at millennial time scales, transporting dissolved carbon into coastal waters, and contributing significantly to global CH 4 budgets. However, these ecosystems' greenhouse gas monitoring and predictions are challenging due to spatial heterogeneity and tidal flooding. We utilized eddy covariance and chamber measurements to quantify fluxes of CO 2 and CH 4 at a restored tidal saltmarsh across spatial and temporal scales. Eddy covariance data revealed that the site was a strong net sink for CO 2 (−387 g C-CO 2 m −2 yr −1 , SD = 46) and a small net source of CH 4 (0.7 g C-CH 4 m −2 yr −1 , SD = 0.4). After partitioning net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 into gross primary production and ecosystem respiration, we found that high net uptake of CO 2 was due to low respiration emissions rather than high photosynthetic rates. We also found that respiration rates varied between land covers with increased respiration in mudflats compared to vegetated areas. Daytime soil chamber measurements revealed that the greatest CO 2 emission was from higher elevation mudflat soils (0.5 μmol m −2 s −1 , SE = 1.3) and CH 4 emission was greatest from lower elevation Spartina foliosa soils (1.6 nmol m −2 s −1 , SD = 8.2). Overall, these results highlight the importance of the relationships between wetland plant community and elevation, and inundation for CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes. Future research should include the use of high-resolution imagery, automated chambers, and a focus on quantifying carbon exported in tidal waters.

California↗

USGS2022

A summary of water-quality and salt marsh monitoring, Humboldt Bay, California

This report summarizes data-collection activities associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Humboldt Bay Water-Quality and Salt Marsh Monitoring Project. This work was undertaken to gain a comprehensive understanding of water-quality conditions, salt marsh accretion processes, marsh-edge erosion, and soil-carbon storage in Humboldt Bay, California. Multiparameter sondes recorded water temperature, specific conductance, and turbidity at a 15-minute timestep at two U.S. Geological Survey water-quality stations: (1) Mad River Slough near Arcata, California (U.S. Geological Survey station 405219124085601) and (2) Hookton Slough near Loleta, California (U.S. Geological Survey station 404038124131801). At each station, discrete water samples were collected to develop surrogate regression models that were used to compute a continuous time series of suspended-sediment concentration from continuously measured turbidity. Data loggers recorded water depth at a 6-minute timestep in the primary tidal channels (Mad River Slough and Hookton Slough) in two adjacent marshes (Mad River marsh and Hookton marsh). The marsh monitoring network included five study marshes. Three marshes (Mad River, Manila, and Jacoby) are in the northern embayment of Humboldt Bay and two marshes (White and Hookton) are in the southern embayment. Surface deposition and elevation change were measured using deep rod surface elevation tables and feldspar marker horizons. Sediment characteristics and soil-carbon storage were measured using a total of 10 shallow cores, distributed across 5 study marshes, collected using an Eijkelkamp peat sampler. Rates of marsh edge erosion (2010–19) were quantified in four marshes (Mad River, Manila, Jacoby, and White) by estimating changes in the areal extent of the vegetated marsh plain using repeat aerial imagery and light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived elevation data. During the monitoring period (2016–19), the mean suspended-sediment concentration computed for Hookton Slough (50±20 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) was higher than Mad River Slough (18±7 mg/L). Uncertainty in mean suspended-sediment concentration values is reported using a 90-percent confidence interval. Across the five study marshes, elevation change (+1.8±0.6 millimeters per year [mm/yr]) and surface deposition (+2.5±0.5 mm/yr) were lower than published values of local sea-level rise (4.9±0.8 mm/yr), and mean carbon density was 0.029±0.005 grams of carbon per cubic centimeter. From 2010 to 2019, marsh edge erosion and soil carbon loss were greatest in low-elevation marshes with the marsh edge characterized by a gentle transition from mudflat to vegetated marsh (herein, ramped edge morphology) and larger wind-wave exposure. Jacoby Creek marsh experienced the greatest edge erosion. In total, marsh edge erosion was responsible for 62.3 metric tons of estuarine soil carbon storage loss across four study marshes. Salt marshes are an important component of coastal carbon, which is frequently referred to as “blue carbon.” The monitoring data presented in this report provide fundamental information needed to manage blue carbon stocks, assess marsh vulnerability, inform sea-level rise adaptation planning, and build coastal resiliency to climate change.

California↗

USGS2022

Distribution and abundance of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax traillii extimus) on the Upper San Luis Rey River, San Diego County, California—2021 data summary

We surveyed for Southwestern Willow Flycatchers ( Empidonax traillii extimus ; flycatcher) along the upper San Luis Rey River near Lake Henshaw in Santa Ysabel, California, in 2021. Surveys were completed at four locations: three downstream from Lake Henshaw, where surveys occurred from 2015 to 2020 (Rey River Ranch [RRR], Cleveland National Forest [CNF], Vista Irrigation District [VID]), and one at VID Lake Henshaw (VLH) that has been surveyed annually since 2018. There were 78 territorial flycatchers detected at 3 locations (RRR, CNF, VLH), and 1 transient flycatcher of unknown subspecies was detected at VID. Downstream from Lake Henshaw, five flycatchers, including three males and two females, were detected at RRR and CNF. In total, three territories were established, consisting of two pairs and one male of undetermined breeding status. At VLH, we detected 73 flycatchers, including 32 males, 38 females, and 3 flycatchers of unknown sex. In total, 43 territories were established, containing 38 pairs (22 monogamous pairings, 7 confirmed polygynous groups consisting of 7 males each pairing with 2 different females, and 1 suspected polygynous group consisting of 1 male and 2 females), and 5 flycatchers of undetermined breeding status (2 males and 3 flycatchers of unknown sex). Brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ; cowbird) were detected at all four survey locations. Flycatchers used five habitat types in the survey area: (1) mixed willow riparian, (2) willow-cottonwood, (3) willow-oak, (4) willow-ash, and (5) sycamore-oak. Eighty-seven percent of the flycatchers were detected in habitat characterized as mixed willow riparian, and 94 percent of the flycatchers were detected in habitat with greater than 95-percent native plant cover. Exotic vegetation was not prevalent in the survey area. There were 15 nests incidentally located during surveys: 1 was successful, 2 were seen with eggs or nestlings on the last visit, 9 failed, and the outcome of the remaining 3 nests was unknown. Three of these nests were parasitized by cowbirds. There were 13 juveniles detected at VLH during surveys; no juveniles were detected at RRR or CNF. Of the 10 banded flycatchers detected during surveys, 7 were resighted and confirmed to be adults that held territories in previous years. Three flycatchers with a single dark blue federal band, indicating that they were banded as nestlings in the former demographic study area downstream from Lake Henshaw, were resighted during surveys. In 2021, we documented both adult and natal flycatchers moving from the former demographic study area downstream from Lake Henshaw upstream to the habitat surrounding Lake Henshaw. Three natal flycatchers that were originally banded as nestlings and three adults that previously held territories downstream dispersed to Lake Henshaw in 2021.

California↗

USGS2022

Influence of riparian thinning on trophic pathways supporting stream food webs in forested watersheds

Resource managers seek to thin second-growth riparian forests to address multiple stream and riparian management objectives, including enhancing aquatic productivity via light-mediated trophic pathways in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest (USA). However, such increases in aquatic productivity depend on complex food web dynamics that link riparian forests and streams. To evaluate how riparian forest thinning influences stream food webs, we conducted a replicated, manipulative field experiment in three northern California watersheds composed of second-growth redwood forests and tracked responses across multiple trophic levels (periphyton, macroinvertebrates, amphibians, and fish) 1 year pre- and post-treatment. Riparian thinning treatments increased light to the stream channel, yet we observed mixed responses by stream food webs. Thinning did not change stream periphyton biomass on natural substrates but increased periphyton accrual on ceramic tiles. Periphyton accrual appeared to be partially muted by top-down effects from invertebrate scrapers, which were more abundant in thinned reaches. Prey in the diets of top predators—coastal giant salamanders ( Dicamptodon tenebrosus ) and coastal cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii )—did not change in biomass, composition, or structure in response to thinning and instead varied more seasonally and between predators. Stable isotope analysis indicated that shifts in carbon (δ 13 C) signatures of stream periphyton associated with thinning were reflected to varying extents by primary consumers but did not propagate up to top predators. Top predator biomass responses varied between species, where salamander biomass remained unchanged, but cutthroat trout biomass increased slightly in thinned reaches. However, trout biomass responses were not supported by diets or isotopes and correlated weakly with changes in light associated with thinning, suggesting little evidence that responses could be attributed directly to changes in autotrophic pathways. Furthermore, we found no evidence that local trophic responses to thinning propagated into downstream reaches. Taken together, we observed that trophic pathways supporting stream food webs remained largely intact immediately after riparian thinning treatments. Collectively, these results suggest that riparian thinning does not necessarily enhance aquatic productivity in forested streams, indicating that contextual factors driving realized ecological responses should be accounted for when considering thinning as a restoration strategy for stream–riparian ecosystems.

California↗

USGS2022

Natural and anthropogenic landscape factors shape functional connectivity of an ecological specialist in urban Southern California

Identifying how natural (i.e., unaltered by human activity) and anthropogenic landscape variables influence contemporary functional connectivity in terrestrial organisms can elucidate the genetic consequences of environmental change. We examine population genetic structure and functional connectivity among populations of a declining species, the Blainville's horned lizard ( Phrynosoma blainvillii ), in the urbanized landscape of the Greater Los Angeles Area in Southern California, USA. Using single nucleotide polymorphism data, we assessed genetic structure among populations occurring at the interface of two abutting evolutionary lineages, and at a fine scale among habitat fragments within the heavily urbanized area. Based on the ecology of P. blainvillii , we predicted which environmental variables influence population structure and gene flow and used gravity models to distinguish among hypotheses to best explain population connectivity. Our results show evidence of admixture between two evolutionary lineages and strong population genetic structure across small habitat fragments. We also show that topography, microclimate, and soil and vegetation types are important predictors of functional connectivity, and that anthropogenic disturbance, including recent fire history and urban development, are key factors impacting contemporary population dynamics. Examining how natural and anthropogenic sources of landscape variation affect contemporary population genetics is critical to understanding how to best manage sensitive species in a rapidly changing landscape.

California↗

USGS2022

Landscape genetics of a sub-alpine toad: Climate change predicted to induce upward range shifts via asymmetrical migration corridors

Climate change is expected to have a major hydrological impact on the core breeding habitat and migration corridors of many amphibians in the twenty-first century. The Yosemite toad ( Anaxyrus canorus ) is a species of meadow-specializing amphibian endemic to the high-elevation Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. Despite living entirely on federal lands, it has recently faced severe extirpations, yet our understanding of climatic influences on population connectivity is limited. In this study, we used a previously published double-digest RADseq dataset along with numerous remotely sensed habitat features in a landscape genetics framework to answer two primary questions in Yosemite National Park: (1) Which fine-scale climate, topographic, soil, and vegetation features most facilitate meadow connectivity? (2) How is climate change predicted to influence both the magnitude and net asymmetry of genetic migration? We developed an approach for simultaneously modeling multiple toad migration paths, akin to circuit theory, except raw environmental features can be separately considered. Our workflow identified the most likely migration corridors between meadows and used the unique cubist machine learning approach to fit and forecast environmental models of connectivity. We identified the permuted modeling importance of numerous snowpack-related features, such as runoff and groundwater recharge. Our results highlight the importance of considering phylogeographic structure, and asymmetrical migration in landscape genetics. We predict an upward elevational shift for this already high-elevation species, as measured by the net vector of anticipated genetic movement, and a north-eastward shift in species distribution via the network of genetic migration corridors across the park.

California↗

USGS2022

Structural properties of the Southern San Andreas fault zone in northern Coachella Valley from magnetotelluric imaging

The Southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) poses one of the largest seismic risks in California. Yet, there is much ambiguity regarding its deeper structural properties around Coachella Valley, in large part due to the relative paucity of everyday seismicity. Here, we image a multistranded section of the SSAF using a non-seismic method, namely magnetotelluric (MT) soundings, to help inform depth-dependent fault zone geometry, fluid content and porosity. The acquired MT data and resultant inversion models highlight a conductive column encompassing the SSAF zone that includes a 2–3 km wide vertical to steeply northeast dipping conductor down to ∼4 km depth (maximum of ∼1 Ω·m at 2 km depth) and another prominent conductor in the ductile crust (∼1 Ω·m at 12 km depth and slightly southwest of the surface SSAF). We estimate porosities of 18–44 per cent for the conductive uppermost 500 m, a 10–15 per cent porosity at 2 km depth and that small amounts (0.1–3 per cent) of interconnected hypersaline fluids produce the deeper conductor. Located northeast of this conductive region is mostly resistive crust indicating dry crystalline rock that extends down to ∼20 km in places. Most of the local seismicity is associated with this resistive region. Located farther northeast still is a conductive region at >13 km depth and separate from the one to the southwest. The imaged anomalies permit two interpretations. The SSAF zone is vertical to steeply northeast dipping in the upper crust and (1) is near vertical at greater depth creating mostly an impermeable barrier for northeast fluid migration or (2) continues to dip northeast but is relatively dry and resistive up to ∼13 km depth where it manifests as a secondary deep ductile crustal conductor. Taken together with existing knowledge, the first interpretation is more likely but more MT investigations are required.

California↗

USGS2022

Distribution and demography of coastal Cactus Wrens (Campylorhynchus brunneicapillus) in southern San Diego County, California — 2021 Data summary

We surveyed for coastal Cactus Wren ( Campylorhynchus brunneicapillus ) in 378 established plots in southern San Diego County in 2021, encompassing 3 genetic clusters (Otay, Lake Jennings, and Sweetwater/Encanto). Two surveys were completed at each plot between March 1 and July 31. Cactus Wrens were detected in 130 plots (34 percent of plots), remaining virtually the same as the percentage of plots occupied in 2020 (35 percent). There were 113 Cactus Wren territories detected across all survey plots in 2021, an increase from 109 in 2020. At least 86 percent of Cactus Wren territories were occupied by pairs, and 50 fledglings were observed in 2021. We observed 48 color-banded Cactus Wrens in 2021, 44 of which we could identify to individual. Adults of known age ranged from 2 to at least 7 years old. Adult Cactus Wrens moved, on average, 0.1 kilometers (maximum 0.5 kilometers) from their 2020 territories to their 2021 territories. No known-identity Cactus Wrens moved between genetic clusters from 2020 to 2021. Vegetation at Cactus Wren plots typically was dominated by coastal sage scrub shrubs, such as California sagebrush ( Artemisia californica ), California buckwheat ( Eriogonum fasciculatum ), lemonadeberry ( Rhus integrifolia ), and San Diego sunflower ( Bahiopsis laciniata ). Twenty-nine percent of plots contained blue elderberry ( Sambucus nigra ssp. caerulea ), and Cactus Wrens occupied proportionally more plots with elderberry than plots without elderberry. Very little dead or unhealthy cactus was observed within all survey plots, and the plots that were occupied by Cactus Wrens were likely to contain more healthy cactus than plots that were not occupied by Cactus Wrens. Thirteen percent of plots had 5 percent or less of the cactus crowded or overtopped by vines and shrubs. Although in 2020, Cactus Wrens occupied proportionally more plots with 5 percent or less of cactus crowded or overtopped by vines and shrubs, this pattern was not found in 2021. Non-native annual cover was 5 percent or less at 29 percent of plots and, unlike in 2020, Cactus Wrens appeared to occupy proportionally more plots with less non-native annual cover than plots with more than 5-percent annual cover.

California↗

USGS2022

Stratigraphy and eruption history of maars in the Clear Lake Volcanic Field, California

The Clear Lake Volcanic Field (CLVF) is the northernmost and youngest field in a chain of volcanic provinces in the California Coast Range mountains. Effusive and explosive volcanic activity in the field has spanned at least 2.1 million years, with the youngest eruptions comprising a series of maar craters at the edges of, and within, Clear Lake itself. This work documents the first direct ages for many of these maar deposits, and builds the stratigraphic basis for interpreting eruptive processes and dynamics of the young eruptions which produced them. Detailed stratigraphy has distinguished maar eruption products from pyroclastic deposits (monolithologic falls and flows, previously mapped together with maars as a single unit), and established a set of 6 eruption facies from maar deposit lithology, grain size parameters, and depositional structures. Radiocarbon dates from carbon films found on clasts at 3 outcrops have constrained several of these maar eruptions to ~8500-13,500 years BP, coinciding with eruptive periods previously estimated based on lake core tephrachronology. Part of this period also coincides with indigenous occupation (< 12,000 years BP), which suggests that oral histories of Pomo and other local tribes may contain descriptions of volcanic phenomena experienced by local residents of the CLVF. Collaboration between volcanologists and indigenous historians may add a valuable human dimension to the youngest eruptions of the Clear Lake Volcanic Field; combined, geologic and ethnographic avenues of research will help build a richer eruption history for future volcanic hazard assessment.

California↗

USGS2022

Local groundwater decline exacerbates response of dryland riparian woodlands to climatic drought

Dryland riparian woodlands are considered to be locally buffered from droughts by shallow and stable groundwater levels. However, climate change is causing more frequent and severe drought events, accompanied by warmer temperatures, collectively threatening the persistence of these groundwater dependent ecosystems through a combination of increasing evaporative demand and decreasing groundwater supply. We conducted a dendro-isotopic analysis of radial growth and seasonal (semi-annual) carbon isotope discrimination (Δ 13 C) to investigate the response of riparian cottonwood stands to the unprecedented California-wide drought from 2012 to 2019, along the largest remaining free-flowing river in Southern California. Our goals were to identify principal drivers and indicators of drought stress for dryland riparian woodlands, determine their thresholds of tolerance to hydroclimatic stressors, and ultimately assess their vulnerability to climate change. Riparian trees were highly responsive to drought conditions along the river, exhibiting suppressed growth and strong stomatal closure (inferred from reduced Δ 13 C) during peak drought years. However, patterns of radial growth and Δ 13 C were quite variable among sites that differed in climatic conditions and rate of groundwater decline. We show that the rate of groundwater decline, as opposed to climate factors, was the primary driver of site differences in drought stress, and trees showed greater sensitivity to temperature at sites subjected to faster groundwater decline. Across sites, higher correlation between radial growth and Δ 13 C for individual trees, and higher inter-correlation of Δ 13 C among trees were indicative of greater drought stress. Trees showed a threshold of tolerance to groundwater decline at 0.5 m year −1 beyond which drought stress became increasingly evident and severe. For sites that exceeded this threshold, peak physiological stress occurred when total groundwater recession exceeded ~3 m. These findings indicate that drought-induced groundwater decline associated with more extreme droughts is a primary threat to dryland riparian woodlands and increases their susceptibility to projected warmer temperatures.

California↗

USGS2022

Revised earthquake recurrence intervals in California, USA: New paleoseismic sites and application of event likelihoods

Recurrence intervals for ground rupturing earthquakes are critical data for assessing seismic hazard. Recurrence intervals are presented here for 38 paleoseismic sites in California. Eleven of these include new or updated data; the remainder use data previously included in the Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3). The methods and results are consistent with UCERF3. In addition, revised recurrence intervals are presented at every site. The revised recurrence intervals incorporate uncertainty in the interpretation of paleoseismic evidence, which is expressed as event likelihood. Event likelihood is the probability that the evidence has been correctly interpreted as a unique earthquake. Event likelihoods are estimated here for 85 inferred past earthquakes at eight paleoseismic sites in California, using a single, consistent methodology. The average event likelihood is 0.85. The revised recurrence intervals are 16% longer, on average, than conventional estimates, and their confidence intervals are disproportionately wider. These recurrence intervals are suitable for inclusion in a “grand inversion” rupture forecast, and they may be important for addressing a systematic misfit in the UCERF3 grand inversion. The revised recurrence intervals may also be important for assessing the unusually long earthquake hiatus in California. Other applications may not need to consider event likelihoods because the effects are small relative to typical uncertainties.

California↗

USGS2022

What makes wildfires destructive in California?

As human impacts from wildfires mount, there is a pressing need to understand why structures are lost in destructive fires. Despite growing research on factors contributing to structure loss, fewer studies have focused on why some fires are destructive and others are not. We characterized overall differences between fires that resulted in structure loss (“destructive fires”) and those that did not (“non-destructive wildfires”) across three California regions. Then, we performed statistical analyses on large fires only (≥100 ha) to distinguish the primary differences between large destructive large fires and large non-destructive fires. Overall, destructive fires were at least an order of magnitude larger than non-destructive fires, with the largest area burned varying by season in different regions. Fire severity was also significantly higher in destructive than non-destructive fires. The statistical analysis showed that, in the San Francisco Bay Area and the northern Sierra Nevada foothills, proximity to the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) was by far the most important factor differentiating destructive and non-destructive wildfires, followed by different combinations of short-term weather, seasonal climate, topography, and vegetation productivity. In Southern California, wind velocity on the day of the fire ignition was the top factor, which is consistent with previous assumptions that wind-driven fires tend to be most destructive and most of the destruction occurs within the first 24 h. Additionally, Southern California’s high population density increases the odds that a human-caused wildfire may occur during a severe fire-weather event. The geographical differences among regions and the variation of factors explaining the differences between large destructive and large non-destructive fires reflects the complexity inherent in decision-making for reducing wildfire risk. Land use planning to reduce future exposure of housing development to fire and increased focus on wildfire ignition prevention emerge as two approaches with substantial potential.

California↗

USGS2022

Distribution and demography of Coastal Cactus Wrens in Southern California, 2015–19

Surveys and monitoring for the coastal Cactus Wren ( Campylorhynchus brunneicapillus ) were completed in San Diego County between March 2015 and July 2019. A total of 383 plots were surveyed across 3 genetic clusters (Otay, Lake Jennings, and Sweetwater/Encanto). From 2015 to 2019, 317 plots were surveyed 8 times (twice per year in 2015, 2017–19). Additional plots were added in later years as wrens were discovered in new locations. We found differences in the proportion of plots occupied in the genetic clusters, with a lower proportion of plots occupied in the Otay cluster than in the Lake Jennings and Sweetwater/Encanto clusters in all years. Plot occupancy increased each year in the Otay and Sweetwater/Encanto clusters but not in the Lake Jennings cluster. The number of Cactus Wren territories increased from 2015 through 2018, and then decreased in 2019 in all three genetic clusters. We monitored nesting activities for two populations of Cactus Wrens in southern San Diego County. The Otay population consisted of two sites within the Otay genetic cluster, and the San Diego population consisted of two sites within the Sweetwater/Encanto and Lake Jennings genetic clusters. Nest monitoring occurred at 10–13 territories per year in the Otay population and 14–18 territories in the San Diego population from 2015 through 2019. All territories were occupied by pairs except two territories in 2015, five in 2016, and two in 2019. Between 46 and 74 Cactus Wren nests were monitored each year, which totaled 295 monitored nests from 2015 to 2019. To evaluate the direct influence of precipitation on breeding success, bio-year precipitation (“precipitation”) was calculated from July 1 of the prior year through June 30 of the breeding season year. Overall apparent nest success was positively influenced by precipitation with the lowest apparent nest success of 50 percent in 2015 and the highest apparent nest success of 72 percent in 2017, corresponding to the second lowest and the highest precipitation years, respectively. Apparent nest success also was higher in the Otay population than in the San Diego population. The number of brood nests initiated per pair and the number of renesting attempts per pair also were higher in years with more precipitation. Other metrics of Cactus Wren nesting success and productivity were positively influenced by the amount of precipitation, including clutch size and egg hatching success. The percent of hatchlings that fledged was greater in the Otay population than in the San Diego population but was not influenced by precipitation. The number of fledglings per pair was higher in years with more precipitation and was greater in the Otay population than in the San Diego population. Predation was the predominant cause of nest failure in both populations. Analysis of Cactus Wren daily nest survival rate indicated that there was a population, and possibly a precipitation effect on nest survival, with the daily survival rate for the Otay population significantly higher than for the San Diego population and weak increase in the daily survival rate with more precipitation. A total of 629 Cactus Wrens were banded during the course of the study, 360 in the San Diego population and 269 in the Otay population. Between 2015 and 2019, we resighted 301 color-banded adult birds that ranged between 1 and 8 years old. One additional color-banded bird was resighted in San Pasqual Valley (as part of a separate study); this bird originated in the San Diego population and was excluded from our analyses. Annual survival was higher for adult Cactus Wrens (ranging from 60 to 70 percent) than for first-year wrens (ranging from 20 to 28 percent) and varied by year. Annual survival was also weakly but positively correlated with precipitation. Annual survival was higher for first year and adult Cactus Wrens following years with increased precipitation. We found no evidence that survival differed by population. Banding also allowed us to examine whether there were differences in movement of adult and first-year Cactus Wrens by year or by population. We found that average dispersal distance for first-year Cactus Wrens was 1.9 kilometers in the Otay population and 1.6 kilometers in the San Diego population and did not differ by population or year. Dispersal between populations was not common. We detected five instances of movement of first-year wrens between the San Diego and Otay populations. All movements into and out of the San Diego population were from or into territories in the Sweetwater area. We detected no movement between the Lake Jennings site and either of the Sweetwater or Otay sites; however, we did detect one wren that dispersed from Lake Jennings to the San Pasqual Valley population in 2019, which was a distance of 26.4 kilometers. Adult Cactus Wrens were site-faithful, with 87 percent of adults remaining on the same territory between breeding seasons. Precipitation may be a weak driver of movement for adult Cactus Wrens, with adults more likely to remain on the same territory following years of increased precipitation. There was no difference in adult movement between populations. Arthropods were collected in pitfall traps and by vacuum in 23 Cactus Wren territories during 3 sampling periods in 2016 (early nesting, peak nesting, and late nesting). Arthropods of 19 orders and at least 128 families were collected. Analysis of 43 Cactus Wren fecal samples identified 10 arthropod orders that were present in more than 10 percent of fecal samples. The most abundant arthropod order collected was Hymenoptera; however, Cactus Wrens consumed arthropods in the order Hymenoptera significantly less than their availability, suggesting that this order was avoided. No other orders were significantly selected or avoided; however, selection indices of arthropod families identified that two families of arthropods (Isopoda Porcellionidae [woodlice] and Hymenoptera Formicidae [ants]) were avoided. After excluding the taxa that were avoided or not represented in fecal samples, 95 percent of Cactus Wren prey items were collected in pitfall traps and 5 percent were collected by vacuum. The most abundant prey orders captured were Diptera, Coleoptera, Hemiptera, Hymenoptera, and Aranea. Analysis of the abundance of Cactus Wren prey items by vegetation type and sampling period indicated that vegetation type by itself was not a significant predictor of arthropod abundance but interacted with sampling period. Seasonal availability of arthropods was highest in the peak nesting period, followed by early and late nesting periods for California sagebrush ( Artemisia californica ), lemonadeberry ( Rhus integrifolia ), non-native grass, and bare ground, whereas availability increased from early to late nesting periods for blue elderberry ( Sambucus mexicana spp. caerulea ), cactus ( Opuntia spp. and Cylindropuntia spp.), California buckwheat ( Eriogonum fasciculatum ), native bunch grasses, and black mustard ( Brassica nigra ). During the early nesting period, arthropods were most abundant in native bunch grasses and least abundant in lemonadeberry. During the peak nesting period, arthropods were most abundant in native bunch grasses and in areas of bare ground and were least abundant in cactus and blue elderberry. During late nesting, arthropods were most abundant in blue elderberry and non-native grass and least abundant in lemonadeberry and mustard. Each year from 2015 to 2019, vegetation data were collected at the same 23 territories where arthropods were sampled: 9 territories in the Otay population and 14 territories in the San Diego population. Cactus, California buckwheat, and non-native grasses were detected within at least 60 percent of sampling points in the Otay population. Cactus, California sagebrush, California buckwheat, non-native grass, and black mustard each were detected within an average of 40 percent of sampling points in the San Diego population. No native bunch grass or lemonadeberry were recorded at the Lake Jennings site within the San Diego population. The cover of shrub species was relatively stable throughout the 5 years. Cover of herbaceous species and bare ground had greater annual variation than shrub species. We found that vegetation cover varied widely among territories, with territory accounting for 69 percent of the variation in vegetation cover. Redundancy analysis allowed us to identify the vegetation types that accounted for the most variation. We used the top scores from the redundancy analysis to identify six vegetation types to be used in generalized linear mixed models analyzing the relationships between vegetation type, precipitation, and Cactus Wren breeding productivity. Three vegetation variables influenced the number of fledglings produced per pair. California sagebrush had a positive effect on the number of fledglings per pair whereas non-native grass and black mustard had a negative effect. Breeding productivity, survival, and movements of adult and first-year Cactus Wrens indicated that the Otay population behaved similarly to, if not out-performed, the San Diego population during the span of our project, suggesting that the driving forces behind low numbers of Cactus Wrens in the Otay population before 2015 were no longer in effect. The Cactus Wren populations in Otay and San Diego reached a peak in 2018, which followed a year of high productivity and survivorship, both of which were correlated with high precipitation. This peak in population size was consistent with reproductive timing and productivity in other bird populations in semi-arid ecosystems that were linked to precipitation and arthropod abundance. We did not find a strong link among arthropod abundance, vegetation composition, and Cactus Wren breeding productivity, likely in part because arthropod abundance varied by vegetation type and sampling period, suggesting that different vegetation types provided important sources of prey at different periods of the breeding season. Arthropod abundance also may not represent arthropod availability when vegetation structure discourages the ground foraging behavior of species such as Cactus Wrens. Cover of non-native grass negatively influenced breeding productivity, although arthropods were abundant in non-native grass. Other factors that could have influenced differential breeding productivity between the Otay and San Diego populations were habitat restoration, control of annual herbaceous vegetation, human disturbance, lingering effects of wildfire, and nest predation. Overall, precipitation appeared to be a driver of Cactus Wren breeding productivity and possibly survival, potentially obscuring proximate effects of arthropod or vegetation composition.

California↗

USGS2022

Multi-decadal simulation of marsh topography evolution under sea level rise and episodic sediment loads

Coastal marsh within Mediterranean climate zones is exposed to episodic watershed runoff and sediment loads that occur during storm events. Simulating future marsh accretion under sea level rise calls for attention to: (a) physical processes acting over the time scale of storm events and (b) biophysical processes acting over time scales longer than storm events. Using the upper Newport Bay in Southern California as a case study, we examine the influence of event-scale processes on simulated change in marsh topography by comparing: (a) a biophysical model that integrates with an annual time step and neglects event-scale processes (BP-Annual), (b) a physical model that resolves event-scale processes but neglects biophysical interactions (P-Event), and (c) a biophysical model that resolves event-scale physical processes and biophysical processes at annual and longer time scales (BP-Event). A calibrated BP-Event model shows that large (>20-year return period) episodic storm events are major drivers of marsh accretion, depositing up to 30 cm of sediment in one event. Greater deposition is predicted near fluvial sources and tidal channels and less on marshes further from fluvial sources and tidal channels. In contrast, the BP-Annual model poorly resolves spatial structure in marsh accretion as a consequence of neglecting event-scale processes. Furthermore, the P-Event model significantly overestimates marsh accretion as a consequence of neglecting marsh surface compaction driven by annual scale biophysical processes. Differences between BP-Event and BP-Annual models translate up to 20 cm per century in marsh surface elevation.

California↗