Geology topics

Research about Beaufort Sea

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Beaufort Sea.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Measuring polar bear health using allostatic load

The southern Beaufort Sea polar bear sub-population ( Ursus maritimus ) has been adversely affected by climate change and loss of sea ice habitat. Even though the sub-population is likely decreasing, it remains difficult to link individual polar bear health and physiological change to sub-population effects. We developed an index of allostatic load, which represents potential physiological dysregulation. The allostatic load index included blood- and hair-based analytes measured in physically captured southern Beaufort bears in spring. We examined allostatic load in relation to bear body condition, age, terrestrial habitat use and, over time, for bear demographic groups. Overall, allostatic load had no relationship with body condition. However, allostatic load was higher in adult females without cubs that used terrestrial habitats the prior year, indicating potential physiological dysregulation with land use. Allostatic load declined with age in adult females without cubs. Sub-adult males demonstrated decreased allostatic load over time. Our study is one of the first attempts to develop a health scoring system for free-ranging polar bears, and our findings highlight the complexity of using allostatic load as an index of health in a wild species. Establishing links between individual bear health and population dynamics is important for advancing conservation efforts.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Serum virome of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus) during a period of rapid climate change

Climate change affects the behavior, physiology and life history of many Arctic wildlife species. It can also influence the distribution and ecology of infectious agents. The southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) has experienced dramatic behavioral changes due to retreating sea ice and other climate-related factors, but the effects of these changes on physiology and infection remain poorly understood. Using serum from polar bears sampled between 2004 and 2015 and metagenomic DNA sequencing, we identified 48 viruses, all of the family Anelloviridae . Anelloviruses are small, ubiquitous infectious agents with circular single-stranded DNA genomes that are not known to cause disease but, in humans, covary in diversity and load with immunological compromise. We therefore examined the usefulness of anelloviruses as biomarkers of polar bear physiological stress related to climate and habitat use. Polar bear anelloviruses sorted into two distinct clades on a phylogenetic tree, both of which also contained anelloviruses of giant pandas ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ), another ursid. Neither anellovirus diversity nor load were associated with any demographic variables, behavioral factors or direct physiological measures. However, pairwise genetic distances between anelloviruses were positively correlated with pairwise differences in sampling date, suggesting that the polar bear “anellome”is evolving over time. These findings suggest that anelloviruses are not a sensitive indicator of polar physiological stress, but they do provide a baseline for evaluating future changes to polar bear viromes.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

A 1300-year microfaunal record from the Beaufort Sea shelf indicates exceptional climate-related environmental changes over the last two centuries

The environments of Arctic Ocean nearshore areas experience high intra- and inter-annual variability, making it difficult to evaluate the impact of anthropogenic warming. However, a sediment record from the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea allowed us to reconstruct the impacts of climate and environmental changes over the last 1300 years along the northern Yukon coast, Canada. The coring site (PG2303; 69.513°N, 138.895°W; water depth 32 m) is located in the Herschel Basin, where high sedimentation rates (0.1–0.5 cm a −1 ) allowed analyses at sub-centennial to decadal resolutions. Benthic foraminiferal, ostracod, and tintinnid assemblages, as well as the stable isotope composition of the foraminifera Elphidium clavatum and Cassidulina reniforme were used as paleoclimatic and ecological indicators, while the age model was based on the combined radiometric data of 14 C, 210 Pb and 137 Cs . From ca 700 to 1050 CE, our data suggest penetration of offshore shelf-break waters inferred by the dominance of C. reniforme followed by the relatively abundant Triloculina trihedra in the foraminiferal assemblages as both species are associated with stable saline conditions. Afterwards, the occurrence of ostracods Kotoracythere arctoborealis and Normanicythere leioderma suggests influx of Pacific-sourced waters until ca. 1150 CE. From ∼1150–1650 CE, persistent frigid waters, limited sediment supply, and low abundances of microfossils suggest cold conditions with pervasive annual sea-ice cover that may have restricted upwelling of oceanic waters. After ∼1800 CE, the co-occurrence of Tintinnopsis fimbriata and bacterial/complex organic carbon feeder foraminifera ( Quinqueloculina stalkeri , Textularia earlandi and Stetsonia horvathi ), suggest an increased influence of freshwater rich in particulate organic matter, which may be related to the spreading of the Mackenzie River plume and/or increased coastal permafrost erosion during longer ice-free seasons. Based on these proxy data, the shift at ∼1800 CE marks the onset of regional warming, which further intensified after ∼1955 CE, likely in response to the anthropogenic forcing.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2021

Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark–recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Drivers and consequences of apex predator diet composition in the Canadian Beaufort Sea

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) rely on annual sea ice as their primary habitat for hunting marine mammal prey. Given their long lifespan, wide geographic distribution, and position at the top of the Arctic marine food web, the diet composition of polar bears can provide insights into temporal and spatial ecosystem dynamics related to climate-mediated sea ice loss. Polar bears with the greatest ecological constraints on diet composition may be most vulnerable to climate-related changes in ice conditions and prey availability. We used quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) to estimate the diets of polar bears ( n = 419) in two western Canadian Arctic subpopulations (Northern Beaufort Sea and Southern Beaufort Sea) from 1999 to 2015. Polar bear diets were dominated by ringed seal ( Pusa hispida ), with interannual, seasonal, age- and sex-specific variation. Foraging area and sea ice conditions also affected polar bear diet composition. Most variation in bear diet was explained by longitude, reflecting spatial variation in prey availability. Sea ice conditions (extent, thickness, and seasonal duration) declined throughout the study period, and date of sea ice break-up in the preceding spring was positively correlated with female body condition and consumption of beluga whale ( Delphinapterus leucas ), suggesting that bears foraged on beluga whales during entrapment events. Female body condition was positively correlated with ringed seal consumption, and negatively correlated with bearded seal consumption. This study provides insights into the complex relationships between declining sea ice habitat and the diet composition and foraging success of a wide-ranging apex predator.

Northwest Territories, Yukon↗

USGS2019

Reference intervals for blood-based biochemical analytes of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears

Accurate reference intervals (RI) for commonly measured blood-based analytes are essential for health monitoring programs. Baseline values for a panel of analytes can be used to monitor physiologic and pathophysiologic processes such as organ function, electrolyte balance, and protein catabolism. Our reference population includes 651 serum samples from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation sampled in Alaska, USA, between 1983 - 2016. To establish RI for 13 biochemical analytes, we defined specific criteria for characterizing the reference population and relevant subgroups. To account for differences in seasonal life history characteristics, we determined separate RI for the spring and fall seasons, when prey availability and energetic requirements of bears differ. We established RI for five subgroups in spring based on sex, age class, and denning status, and three subgroups in fall based on sex and age class in females. Alkaline phosphatase activities were twice as high in subadult as in adult polar bears in spring (zmales = 4.08, Pmales < 0.001, zfemales = 3.90, Pfemales < 0.001), and did not differ between seasons. Denning females had significantly higher glucose concentrations than non-denning females (z = 4.94, P < 0.001), possibly reflecting differences in energy expenditure during lactation. Ten of the 13 analytes differed significantly between seasons in either males or females; however, the physiologic importance of these differences may be minimal. Establishing these RI allows for temporal monitoring of polar bear health in the southern Beaufort Sea and may prove useful for assessing and monitoring additional polar bear subpopulations in a changing Arctic environment.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Estimating the energy expenditure of free‐ranging polar bears using tri‐axial accelerometers: A validation with doubly labeled water

Measures of energy expenditure can be used to inform animal conservation and management, but methods for measuring the energy expenditure of free‐ranging animals have a variety of limitations. Advancements in biologging technologies have enabled the use of dynamic body acceleration derived from accelerometers as a proxy for energy expenditure. Although dynamic body acceleration has been shown to strongly correlate with oxygen consumption in captive animals, it has been validated in only a few studies on free‐ranging animals. Here, we use relationships between oxygen consumption and overall dynamic body acceleration in resting and walking polar bears Ursus maritimus and published values for the costs of swimming in polar bears to estimate the total energy expenditure of 6 free‐ranging polar bears that were primarily using the sea ice of the Beaufort Sea. Energetic models based on accelerometry were compared to models of energy expenditure on the same individuals derived from doubly labeled water methods. Accelerometer‐based estimates of energy expenditure on average predicted total energy expenditure to be 30% less than estimates derived from doubly labeled water. Nevertheless, accelerometer‐based measures of energy expenditure strongly correlated ( r 2 = 0.70) with measures derived from doubly labeled water. Our findings highlight the strengths and limitations in dynamic body acceleration as a measure of total energy expenditure while also further supporting its use as a proxy for instantaneous, detailed energy expenditure in free‐ranging animals.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon↗

USGS2018

High-energy, high-fat lifestyle challenges an Arctic apex predator, the polar bear

Regional declines in polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) populations have been attributed to changing sea ice conditions, but with limited information on the causative mechanisms. By simultaneously measuring field metabolic rates, daily activity patterns, body condition, and foraging success of polar bears moving on the spring sea ice, we found that high metabolic rates (1.6 times greater than previously assumed) coupled with low intake of fat-rich marine mammal prey resulted in an energy deficit for more than half of the bears examined. Activity and movement on the sea ice strongly influenced metabolic demands. Consequently, increases in mobility resulting from ongoing and forecasted declines in and fragmentation of sea ice are likely to increase energy demands and may be an important factor explaining observed declines in body condition and survival.

Science↗

USGS2017

Environmental and behavioral changes may influence the exposure of an Arctic apex predator to pathogens and contaminants

Recent decline of sea ice habitat has coincided with increased use of land by polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) from the southern Beaufort Sea (SB), which may alter the risks of exposure to pathogens and contaminants. We assayed blood samples from SB polar bears to assess prior exposure to the pathogens Brucella spp ., Toxoplasma gondii , Coxiella burnetii , Francisella tularensis , and Neospora caninum , estimate concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and evaluate risk factors associated with exposure to pathogens and POPs. We found that seroprevalence of Brucella spp . and T. gondii antibodies likely increased through time, and provide the first evidence of exposure of polar bears to C. burnetii , N. caninum , and F. tularensis . Additionally, the odds of exposure to T. gondii were greater for bears that used land than for bears that remained on the sea ice during summer and fall, while mean concentrations of the POP chlordane (ΣCHL) were lower for land-based bears. Changes in polar bear behavior brought about by climate-induced modifications to the Arctic marine ecosystem may increase exposure risk to certain pathogens and alter contaminant exposure pathways.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Demographic and temporal variations in immunity and condition of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea

Assessing the health and condition of animals in their natural environment can be problematic. Many physiological metrics, including immunity, are highly influenced by specific context and recent events to which researchers may be unaware. Thus, using a multifaceted physiological approach and a context-specific analysis encompassing multiple time scales can be highly informative. Ecoimmunological tools in particular can provide important indications to the health of animals in the wild. We collected blood and hair samples from free-ranging polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea and examined the influence of sex, age, and reproductive status on metrics of immunity, stress, and body condition during 2013–2015. We examined metrics of innate immunity (bactericidal ability and lysis) and stress (hair cortisol, reactive oxygen species, and oxidative barrier), in relation to indices of body condition considered to be short term (urea to creatinine ratio; UC ratio) and long term (storage energy and body mass index). We found the factors of sex, age, and reproductive status of the bear were critical for interpreting different physiological metrics. Additionally, the metrics of body condition were important predictors for stress indicators. Finally, many of these metrics differed between years, illustrating the need to examine populations on a longer time scale. Taken together, this study demonstrates the complex relationship between multiple facets of physiology and how interpretation requires us to examine individuals within a specific context.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

The first hop: Use of Beaufort Sea deltas by hatch-year semipalmated sandpipers

River deltas along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast are used by hatch-year semipalmated sandpipers ( Calidris pusilla ) after leaving their terrestrial natal sites, but the drivers of their use of these stopover sites on the first “hop” of fall migration are unknown. We quantified sandpiper temporal distribution and abundance as related to food resources at three river deltas during the beginning of their fall migration (post-breeding period) to compare the habitat quality among these deltas. We conducted population counts, sampled invertebrates, and captured birds to collect blood samples from individuals for triglyceride and stable isotope analyses to determine fattening rates and diet. Patterns of sandpiper and invertebrate abundance were complex and varied among deltas and within seasons. River deltas were used by sandpipers from late July to late August, and peak sandpiper counts ranged from 1000 to 4000 individuals, of which 98% were hatch-year semipalmated sandpipers. Isotopic signatures from blood plasma samples indicated that birds switched from a diet of upland tundra to delta invertebrate taxa as the migration season progressed, suggesting a dependence on delta invertebrates. Despite differences in diet among deltas, we found no differences in fattening rates of juvenile sandpipers as indicated by triglyceride levels. The number of sandpipers was positively associated with abundance of Amphipoda and Oligochaeta at the Jago and Okpilak-Hulahula deltas; an isotopic mixing model indicated that sandpipers consumed Amphipoda and Oligochaeta at Jago, mostly Chironomidae at Okpilak-Hulahula and Spionidae at Canning. Regardless of the difference in sandpiper diets at the Beaufort Sea deltas, their similar fattening rates throughout the season indicate that all of these stopover sites provide a critical food resource for hatch-year sandpipers beginning their first migration.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Ecological change drives a decline in mercury concentrations in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears

We evaluated total mercury (THg) concentrations and trends in polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation from 2004 to 2011. Hair THg concentrations ranged widely among individuals from 0.6 to 13.3 μg g –1 dry weight (mean: 3.5 ± 0.2 μg g –1 ). Concentrations differed among sex and age classes: solitary adult females ≈ adult females with cubs ≈ subadults > adult males ≈ yearlings > cubs-of-the-year ≈ 2 year old dependent cubs. No variation was observed between spring and fall samples. For spring-sampled adults, THg concentrations declined by 13% per year, contrasting recent trends observed for other Western Hemispheric Arctic biota. Concentrations also declined by 15% per year considering adult males only, while a slower, nonsignificant decrease of 4.4% per year was found for adult females. Lower THg concentrations were associated with higher body mass index (BMI) and higher proportions of lower trophic position food resources consumed. Because BMI and diet were related, and the relationship to THg was strongest for BMI, trends were re-evaluated adjusting for BMI as the covariate. The adjusted annual decline was not significant. These findings indicate that changes in foraging ecology, not declining environmental concentrations of mercury, are driving short-term declines in THg concentrations in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Temporal complexity of southern Beaufort Sea polar bear diets during a period of increasing land use

From 2000 to 2013, use of land as a seasonal habitat by polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) of the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation substantially increased. This onshore use has been linked to reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice, as well as to the availability of subsistence‐harvested bowhead whale ( Balaena mysticetus ) bone piles. Here, we evaluated the role of climate conditions on consumption of traditional ice‐associated prey relative to onshore bowhead whale bone piles. We determined seasonal and interannual trends in the diets of SB polar bears using fatty acid‐based analysis during this period of increasing land use. Diet estimates of 569 SB polar bears from 2004 to 2012 showed high seasonal fluctuations in the proportions of prey consumed. Higher proportions of bowhead whale, as well as ringed seal ( Pusa hispida ) and beluga whale ( Delphinapterus leucas ), were estimated to occur in the winter–spring diet, while higher proportions of bearded seal ( Erignathus barbatus ) were estimated for summer–fall diets. Trends in the annual mean proportions of individual prey items were not found in either period, except for significant declines in the proportion of beluga in spring‐sampled bears. Nonetheless, in years following a high winter Arctic oscillation index, proportions of ice‐associated ringed seal were lower in the winter–spring diets of adult females and juveniles. Proportions of bowhead increased in the winter–spring diets of adult males with the number of ice‐free days over the continental shelf. In one or both seasons, polar bears that were in better condition were estimated to have consumed less ringed seal and/or more bowhead whale than those in worse condition. Therefore, climate variation over this recent period appeared to influence the extent of onshore vs. on‐ice food use, which in turn, appeared to be linked to fluctuating condition of SB polar bears.

Beaufort Sea↗

USGS2017

Collar temperature sensor data reveal long-term patterns in southern Beaufort Sea polar bear den distribution on pack ice and land

In response to a changing climate, many species alter habitat use. Polar bears Ursus maritimus in the southern Beaufort Sea have increasingly used land for maternal denning. To aid in detecting denning behavior, we developed an objective method to identify polar bear denning events using temperature sensor data collected by satellite-linked transmitters deployed on adult females between 1985 and 2013. We then applied this method to determine whether southern Beaufort Sea polar bears have continued to increase land denning with recent sea-ice loss and examined whether sea-ice conditions affect the distribution of dens between pack-ice and coastal substrates. Because land use in summer and autumn has also increased, we examined potential associations between summering substrate and denning substrate. Statistical process control methods applied to temperature-sensor data identified denning events with 94.5% accuracy in comparison to direct observations (n = 73) and 95.7% accuracy relative to subjective classifications based on temperature, location, and activity sensor data (n = 116). We found an increase in land-based denning during the study period. The frequency of land denning was directly related to the distance that sea ice retreated from the coast. Among females that denned, all 14 that summered on land subsequently denned there, whereas 29% of the 69 bears summering on ice denned on land. These results suggest that denning on land may continue to increase with further loss of sea ice. While the effects that den substrate have on nutrition, energetics, and reproduction are unclear, more polar bears denning onshore will likely increase human-bear interactions.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Habitat use and foraging patterns of molting male Long-tailed Ducks in lagoons of the central Beaufort Sea, Alaska

From mid-July through September, 10 000 to 30 000 Long-tailed Ducks ( Clangula hyemalis ) use the lagoon systems of the central Beaufort Sea for remigial molt. Little is known about their foraging behavior and patterns of habitat use during this flightless period. We used radio transmitters to track male Long-tailed Ducks through the molt period from 2000 to 2002 in three lagoons: one adjacent to industrial oil field development and activity and two in areas without industrial activity. We found that an index to time spent foraging generally increased through the molt period. Foraging, habitat use, and home range size showed similar patterns, but those patterns were highly variable among lagoons and across years. Even with continuous daylight during the study period, birds tended to use offshore areas during the day for feeding and roosted in protected nearshore waters at night. We suspect that variability in behaviors associated with foraging, habitat use, and home range size are likely influenced by availability of invertebrate prey. Proximity to oil field activity did not appear to affect foraging behaviors of molting Long-tailed Ducks.

Beaufort Sea↗

USGS2015

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Prevalence and spatio-temporal variation of an alopecia syndrome in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the southern Beaufort Sea

Alopecia (hair loss) has been observed in several marine mammal species and has potential energetic consequences for sustaining a normal core body temperature, especially for Arctic marine mammals routinely exposed to harsh environmental conditions. Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) rely on a thick layer of adipose tissue and a dense pelage to ameliorate convective heat loss while moving between sea ice and open water. From 1998 to 2012, we observed an alopecia syndrome in polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea of Alaska that presented as bilaterally asymmetrical loss of guard hairs and thinning of the undercoat around the head, neck, and shoulders, which, in severe cases, was accompanied by exudation and crusted skin lesions. Alopecia was observed in 49 (3.45%) of the bears sampled during 1,421 captures, and the apparent prevalence varied by years with peaks occurring in 1999 (16%) and 2012 (28%). The probability that a bear had alopecia was greatest for subadults and for bears captured in the Prudhoe Bay region, and alopecic individuals had a lower body condition score than unaffected individuals. The cause of the syndrome remains unknown and future work should focus on identifying the causative agent and potential effects on population vital rates.

Beaufort Sea↗

USGS2014

Widespread gas hydrate instability on the upper U.S. Beaufort margin

The most climate-sensitive methane hydrate deposits occur on upper continental slopes at depths close to the minimum pressure and maximum temperature for gas hydrate stability. At these water depths, small perturbations in intermediate ocean water temperatures can lead to gas hydrate dissociation. The Arctic Ocean has experienced more dramatic warming than lower latitudes, but observational data have not been used to study the interplay between upper slope gas hydrates and warming ocean waters. Here we use (a) legacy seismic data that constrain upper slope gas hydrate distributions on the U.S. Beaufort Sea margin, (b) Alaskan North Slope borehole data and offshore thermal gradients determined from gas hydrate stability zone thickness to infer regional heat flow, and (c) 1088 direct measurements to characterize multidecadal intermediate ocean warming in the U.S. Beaufort Sea. Combining these data with a three-dimensional thermal model shows that the observed gas hydrate stability zone is too deep by 100 to 250 m. The disparity can be partially attributed to several processes, but the most important is the reequilibration (thinning) of gas hydrates in response to significant (~0.5°C at 2σ certainty) warming of intermediate ocean temperatures over 39 years in a depth range that brackets the upper slope extent of the gas hydrate stability zone. Even in the absence of additional ocean warming, 0.44 to 2.2 Gt of methane could be released from reequilibrating gas hydrates into the sediments underlying an area of ~5–7.5 × 10 3 km 2 on the U.S. Beaufort Sea upper slope during the next century.

Alaska↗