Geology topics

Research about Alaska

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Alaska.

At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Estimating Pacific walrus abundance and survival with multievent mark-recapture models

Arctic marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid physical and biological change associated with climate warming and loss of sea ice. Sea ice loss will impact many species through altered spatial and temporal availability of resources. In the Bering and Chukchi Seas, the Pacific walrus Odobenus rosmarus divergens is one species that could be impacted by rapid environmental change, and thus, population assessments are needed to monitor changes in the status of this ecologically and culturally important marine mammal. We conducted a 5 yr genetic mark-recapture study to estimate demographic parameters for the Pacific walrus. We developed a Bayesian multievent mark-recapture model to estimate walrus survival and abundance while accounting for age misclassification. We estimated the probability of juvenile annual survival as 0.63 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.39-0.87) and adult female annual survival as 0.90 (95% CrI: 0.74-1.00). We estimated total abundance as 257 193 (95% CrI: 171 138-366 366). We provide the first estimate of total Pacific walrus abundance since an aerial survey in 2006, which generated a substantially less precise total population size estimate (129 000; 95% CI: 55 000-507 000). The emerging ecosystem state in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas will likely result in a decline in Pacific walrus abundance, but there is substantial uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the anticipated decline. Our demographic estimates provide critical information to evaluate future population trends of this subsistence resource vital to communities that border the Bering and Chukchi Seas in the USA and Russia.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

A serological survey of Francisella tularensis exposure in wildlife on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

Tularemia is an infectious zoonotic disease caused by one of several subspecies of Francisella tularensis bacteria. Infections by F. tularensis are common throughout the northern hemisphere and have been detected in more than 250 wildlife species. In Alaska, US, where the pathogen was first identified in 1938, studies have identified F. tularensis antibodies in a diverse suite of taxa, including insects, birds, and mammals. However, few such investigations have been conducted recently and knowledge about the current distribution and disease ecology of F. tularensis is limited, particularly in Arctic Alaska, an area undergoing rapid environmental changes from climate warming. To help address these information gaps and provide insights about patterns of exposure among wildlife, we assessed the seroprevalence of F. tularensis antibodies in mammals and tundra-nesting geese from the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska, 2014–17. With a commercially available slide agglutination test, we detected antibodies in 14.7% of all individuals sampled ( n =722), with titers ranging from 1:20 to 1:320. We detected significant differences in seroprevalence between family groups, with Canidae (foxes, Vulpes spp.) and Sciuridae (Arctic ground squirrel, Spermophilus parryii ) having the highest seroprevalence at 21.5% and 33.3%, respectively. Mean seroprevalence for Ursidae (polar bears, Ursus maritimus ) was 13.3%, whereas Cervidae (caribou, Rangifer tarandus ) had comparatively low seroprevalence at 6.5%. Antibodies were detected in all Anatidae species sampled, with Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) having the highest seroprevalence at 13.6%. The detection of F. tularensis antibodies across multiple taxa from the Arctic Coastal Plain and its nearshore marine region provides evidence of exposure to this pathogen throughout the region and highlights the need for renewed surveillance in Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

The ~400 yr B.P. eruption of Half Cone, a post-caldera composite cone within Aniakchak caldera, Alaska Peninsula

Aniakchak volcano is a historically active caldera located on the central Alaska Peninsula. The largest eruption from Aniakchak since the ~3,400 yr B.P. caldera-forming eruption occurred ~400 yr B.P. from Half Cone volcano, an intracaldera composite cone on the northwest floor of the Aniakchak caldera that was largely destroyed by the eruption. The ~400 yr B.P. eruption produced a widely dispersed pumice fall deposit known as the Pink and Brown Pumice. Following small phreatomagmatic explosions, a buoyant Plinian eruption column combined with southwesterly winds dispersed ~1.3 km3 of crystal-poor dacite (66.1–67.1% SiO2) Pink Pumice at least 70 km to the northeast from Half Cone (~0.05 km3 dense rock equivalent; DRE). Fluctuations in the diameters of pyroclasts and accidental lithics in the Pink Pumice indicate at least two cycles of waxing and waning mass flux at the Half Cone vent. This vent produced an eruption column that twice expanded and gained altitudes of ~15–20 km before weakening to lower altitudes. Brown Pumice scoria (58.2– 66.9% SiO2) as well as compositionally banded pyroclasts at the top of the Pink Pumice indicate that both dacite magma and an increasing amount of low-SiO2 (58.2–60.5% SiO2) andesite magma were erupted simultaneously during the transition to the Brown Pumice phase of the eruption. The reversely graded Brown Pumice fall deposit records an escalating Plinian column dominated by low-SiO2 Brown Pumice scoria that reached altitudes of ~20–24 km and led to the emplacement of least ~3.5 km3 of fall deposits up to at least 230 km to the northeast (~1 km3 DRE). Over time, the Brown Pumice eruption column repeatedly experienced partial collapse that ultimately produced thick pyroclastic density current deposits, most of which were confined to within the caldera. Lithic-rich agglutinate and spatter exposed in 60-m-thick deposits atop the severed flanks of Half Cone and within ~2 km of Half Cone were emplaced at the end of the Brown Pumice phase. Agglutinate deposits range from 58.6 to.64.8% SiO2, which generally falls in the compositional range between Brown and Pink Pumice compositional endmembers. Most of the Half Cone edifice was destroyed by the end of the Brown Pumice phase. The ~0.1 km3 crystal-rich dacitic Cobweb lava flow (64.8–65.8% SiO2) filled a basin left behind by the destruction of Half Cone as a series of radiating lobes. Subsequently, a small andesitic tuff cone (62.2–62.8% SiO2) formed over the Cobweb lava flow vent. In all, we estimate that at least ~5.4 km3 of tephra and ~0.1 km3 of lava erupted during the ~400 yr B.P. eruption, yielding a total magmatic volume (DRE) of ~1.3 km3. Titanomagnetite-ilmenite pairs in Pink and Brown Pumice samples record similar equilibrium temperature ranges (944–997 °C and 959–985 °C, respectively) but different fO2 conditions—Pink Pumice pairs plot between NNO and NNO +0.5, Brown Pumice pairs plot below the NNO buffer. Titanomagnetite-ilmenite pairs in Brown Pumice agglutinate record a wider range of temperatures than either Pink or Brown Pumice samples (899–1018 °C) but also show two populations of fO2—one that overlaps the Pink Pumice array at higher fO2 and one that overlaps the Brown Pumice array at lower fO2. Titanomagnetite-ilmenite pairs from the Cobweb lava flow have the largest fO2 range (NNO -0.5 to NNO +0.5), although most pairs overlap Brown Pumice samples at lower fO2 conditions near NNO -0.5. Pairs in Cobweb lava samples record temperatures from 837 to 1054 °C, which is the largest temperature range recorded in deposits emplaced during any phase of the ~400 yr B.P. eruption. Geothermometry results of titanomagnetite-ilmenite pairs in ≤3,400 yr B.P. samples erupted from Aniakchak volcano record a similar temperature range and the presence of two fO2 arrays as the ~400 yr B.P. samples, which implies the existence of two magma regions of the mush column; each the product of slightly different evolution. In addition, results from in situ compositional analyses of plagioclase suggest that the ~400 yr B.P. eruption may have been initiated, at least in part, by intrusion of basaltic magma, which ascended from the lower crust into the shallow subvolcanic magma mush column prior to and during eruption. The bimodal distribution of whole-rock compositions and the two plagioclase populations in the low-SiO2 Brown Pumice—one defined by An40–An60 cores and one defined by An79–An95 cores—is consistent with an abbreviated period of mixing between intruding basalt and resident dacite mush prior to eruption. Progressive mixing between mafic and felsic magmas during and after the eruption likely produced the subsequently erupted Cobweb lava flow, which has an intermediate composition with abundant mineral disequilibria. Aniakchak volcano continues to show episodic signs of unrest, suggesting that eruptions will occur in the future.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Melanism in a Common Murre Uria aalge in Kachemak Bay, Alaska

In accord with melanism being uncommon in birds, we could find only six published records of completely melanistic Common Murres Uria aalge , one of the most widely and intensively studied of all seabirds. We added to the record by observing a Common Murre in completely dark, melanistic alternate plumage every summer from 2017 to 2021 at Gull Island in Kachemak Bay, Alaska, USA. In 2017, the bird frequented the colony periphery, indicating that it could have been a subadult. Subsequently, it occupied the same narrow rock ledge within the colony every summer from 2018 to 2021, an indication that it may have been attempting to breed. Because we have been conducting long-term monitoring on Gull Island, we are in the unique position to be able to monitor the attendance and reproductive performance of this distinctively marked murre into the future.

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USGS2022

A RADical approach to conservation in Alaska: Rapid climate change requires a new perspective

In Alaska, conservation areas are managed to promote the persistence of wild species, habitats, cultural resources, visitor experiences, and ecosystem services. Many conservation areas are managed by federal or state agencies, and have specific boundaries, missions, and legislative mandates. Many are also the domains of Indigenous and local people who derive livelihoods and cultural identity from these lands. These areas vary considerably as to whether they are managed solely for conservation versus other additional values. Myriad threats challenge the sustainability of these values, and conservation areas often exist to mitigate such threats. But regardless of jurisdiction, legal contexts, or historical impacts, all these places face challenges, unprecedented during human habitation, from one globally pervasive threat: anthropogenic climate change. Yes, ecosystems, including people who depend on them, have adapted to constant change in Alaska over most of the Holocene if not before (at least the last 18kyr). And this experience has conferred upon its constituents learned adaptive capacity, capabilities, and knowledges among the most flexible on the planet. We discuss the implications of the Resist, Accept, Direct adaptation framework in the context of conservation management in Alaska.

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USGS2021

Migration strategies supporting salmonids in Arctic Rivers: A case study of Arctic Cisco and Dolly Varden

Amphidromous fish such as Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma) and Arctic Cisco (Coregonus autumnalis) have distinct life histories that facilitate their success in Arctic environments. Both species spawn in freshwater and make annual migrations between marine, brackish, or freshwater environments. Dolly Varden rear for one or more years in freshwater before migrating to sea whereas Arctic Cisco migrate to sea during their first summer. By contrast, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) spawn in freshwater, but once they smolt and go to sea they remain there until they mature and return to spawn. Salmon migrate at variable ages depending on species. Arctic marine environments offer productive food resources during summer, but during winter they are too cold for salmonids that lack antifreeze proteins. To avoid the cold sea during winter, Dolly Varden return to freshwater while Arctic Cisco overwinter in brackish estuaries. The lack of migration back to freshwater for overwintering helps explain why Pacific salmon success is limited in Arctic waters and suggests major increases in success will not be realized until Arctic seas provide suitable overwinter conditions. In this paper we contrast these migration strategies, discuss potential changes in a warming Arctic, and highlight information needs especially for juvenile fish.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Revealing migratory path, important stopovers and non-breeding areas of a boreal songbird in steep decline

The Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi) is a steeply declining aerial insectivore with one of the longest migrations of any North American passerine. We deployed light-level geolocators and archival GPS tags on breeders in boreal Alaska to determine migratory routes, important stopovers and non-breeding locations. Data from 16 individuals revealed a median 23,555 km annual journey (range: 19,387, 27,292 km) over 95 days (range: 83, 139 days) with wintering occurring in three regions of South America (NW Colombia/Ecuador, central Peru and W Brazil/S Peru). We developed a new method to identify “Important Stopovers” by quantifying intensity of use (a function of bird numbers and stop durations) along migratory routes. We identified 13 Important Stopovers that accounted for ~66% of the annual migratory period, suggestive of refueling activities. Some sites coincided with key areas previously identified for other Neotropi- cal-Nearctic migrants. Percent land “protected” at Impor- tant Stopovers, as defined by IUCN, ranged from 3.8% to 49.3% (mean [95% CI]: 17.3% [9.6, 25.0]). Total migration speed did not differ by season (median: 255 km day-1, range: 182, 295km day-1), despite greater spring travel dis- tances. Birds with longer non-breeding periods, however, migrated north faster. Climate-driven mismatches in migratory timing may be less of a concern for western than for eastern flycatcher populations, given recent con- generic analyses (C. sordidulus, C. virens). However, accel- erated high-latitude changes, may nonetheless impact boreal breeders.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Genetic variation in sea otters (Enhydra lutris) from the North Pacific with relevance to the threatened Southwest Alaska Distinct Population Segment

For the sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ), genetic population structure is an area of research that has not received significant attention, especially in Southwest Alaska where that distinct population segment has been listed as threatened since 2005 pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act. In this study, 501 samples from 14 locations from Prince William Sound, Alaska to the Commander Islands in Russia were analyzed for variation at 13 microsatellite loci. Our results indicate a high degree of genetic divergence among the 14 locations ( F ST = 0.120) with gene flow conforming to the isolation by distance (IBD) model ( r 2 = 0.491, p < .05). The 14 sampling locations formed six geographic associations in clustering and ordination analyses that likely correspond to remnant population lineages: (1) Southcentral Alaska, (2) Kodiak and North Alaska Peninsula, (3) South Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay, (4) Eastern Aleutian, (5) Western Aleutian, and (6) the Commander Islands. Except for South Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay, these clusters closely agree with previously defined stock and management unit boundaries. Our results reveal significant genetic population structure and are generally congruent with current management strategies for the threatened Southwest Alaska distinct population segment.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Characterizing methane emission hotspots from thawing permafrost

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from climate-sensitive ecosystems within the northern permafrost region represent a potentially large but highly uncertain source, with current estimates spanning a factor of seven (11–75 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ). Accelerating permafrost thaw threatens significant increases in pan-Arctic CH 4 emissions, amplifying the permafrost carbon feedback. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy with meter-scale spatial resolution and broad coverage to identify a previously undiscovered CH 4 emission hotspot adjacent to a thermokarst lake in interior Alaska. Hotspot emissions were confined to <1% of the 10 ha lake study area. Ground-based chamber measurements confirmed average daily fluxes from the hotspot of 1,170 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 , with extreme daily maxima up to 24,200 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 . Ground-based geophysical measurements revealed thawed permafrost directly beneath the CH 4 hotspot, extending to a depth of ∼15 m, indicating that the intense CH 4 emissions likely originated from recently thawed permafrost. Hotspot emissions accounted for ∼40% of total diffusive CH 4 emissions from the lake study site. Combining study site findings with hotspot statistics from our 70,000 km 2 airborne survey across Alaska and northwestern Canada, we estimate that pan-Arctic terrestrial thermokarst hotspots currently emit 1.1 (0.1–5.2) Tg CH 4 yr −1 , or roughly 4% of the annual pan-Arctic wetland budget from just 0.01% of the northern permafrost land area. Our results suggest that significant proportions of pan-Arctic CH 4 emissions originate from disproportionately small areas of previously undetermined thermokarst emissions hotspots, and that pan-Arctic CH 4 emissions may increase non-linearly as thermokarst processes increase under a warming climate.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Life-history attributes of Arctic-breeding birds drive uneven responses to environmental variability across different phases of the reproductive cycle

Animals exhibit varied life-history traits that reflect adaptive responses to their environments. For Arctic-breeding birds, traits related to diet, egg nutrient allocation, clutch size, and chick growth are predicted to be under increasing selection pressure due to rapid climate change and increasing environmental variability across high-latitude regions. We compared four migratory birds (black brant [ Branta bernicla nigricans ], lesser snow geese [ Chen caerulescens caerulescens ], semipalmated sandpipers [ Calidris pusilla ], and Lapland longspurs [ Calcarius lapponicus ]) with varied life histories at an Arctic site in Alaska, USA, to understand how life-history traits help moderate environmental variability across different phases of the reproductive cycle. We monitored aspects of reproductive performance related to the timing of breeding, reproductive investment, and chick growth from 2011 to 2018. In response to early snowmelt and warm temperatures, semipalmated sandpipers advanced their site arrival and bred in higher numbers, while brant and snow geese increased clutch sizes; all four species advanced their nest initiation dates. During chick rearing, longspur nestlings were relatively resilient to environmental variation, whereas warmer temperatures increased the growth rates of sandpiper chicks but reduced growth rates of snow goose goslings. These responses generally aligned with traits along the capital-income spectrum of nutrient acquisition and altricial–precocial modes of chick growth. Under a warming climate, the ability to mobilize endogenous reserves likely provides geese with relative flexibility to adjust the timing of breeding and the size of clutches. Higher temperatures, however, may negatively affect the quality of herbaceous foods and slow gosling growth. Species may possess traits that are beneficial during one phase of the reproductive cycle and others that may be detrimental at another phase, uneven responses that may be amplified with future climate warming. These results underscore the need to consider multiple phases of the reproductive cycle when assessing the effects of environmental variability on Arctic-breeding birds.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Predicting thermal responses of an Arctic lake to whole-lake warming manipulation

We investigated how lake thermal processes responded to whole lake warming manipulation in an arctic lake through observations and numerical modeling. The warming manipulation was conducted by artificially heating the epilimnion as a proxy for climate warming. We performed numerical modeling with an improved lake scheme based on the Community Land Model (CLM). We simulated a control run (CTL) without warming and a warming manipulation simulation (WARM). Results indicated WARM accurately captured observed temperatures where water stratification was extended in time, and water stability was strengthened. Two additional sensitivity tests with different warming onset dates and of the same warming duration showed that earlier warming onsets are predicted to make the water column more stable and less easily mixed relative to a later onset of warming. The results provide a more complete understanding of lake thermal processes in arctic freshwater lake systems and how they will respond to predicted future warming.

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USGS2021

Knowledge gaps update to the 2019 IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere: Prospects to refine coastal flood hazard assessments and adaptation strategies with at-risk communities of Alaska

This article reviews the status of knowledge gaps and co-production process challenges that impede coastal flood hazard resilience planning in communities of northwestern Alaska, where threat levels are high. Discussion focuses on the state of knowledge arising after preparation of the 2019 IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate and highlights prospects to address urgent needs. The intent is to identify some key steps necessary to advance the integration of relevant multidisciplinary observations with flood modeling and infrastructure mapping to co-produce new online hazard and risk assessment tools that inform local community planning and improve science collaboration among Federal, state, and regional partners for enhanced pre-storm preparations and post-storm recovery, including partial or complete relocation. By focusing coastal data integration for delivery of priority geospatial hazard map products through a consistent yet customized approach to adaptation planning, the broad collaborative effort in Alaska may yield a path of stakeholder service delivery that can be applied to many Arctic communities and other vulnerable regions of the world.

Frontiers in Climate↗

USGS2021

Simultaneous effusive and explosive cinder cone eruptions at Veniaminof Volcano, Alaska

Historical eruptions of Veniaminof Volcano, Alaska have all occurred at a 300-m-high cinder cone within the icefilled caldera that characterizes the volcano. At least six of nineteen historical eruptions involved simultaneous explosive and effusive activity from separate vents. Eruptions in 1944, 1983–1984, 1993–1994, 2013, 2018 and 2021 included periods of explosive ash-producing Strombolian activity from summit vents and simultaneous nonexplosive effusion of lava from flank vents on either the southern or northeast sides of the cone. A T-junction conduit network is proposed to explain the simultaneous eruptive styles and as a mechanism for gas-magma segregation that must occur to produce the observed activity. Historical eruptions with simultaneous summit and flank activity produced slightly higher rising ash clouds compared to historical eruptions where simultaneous activity did not occur. This could be a consequence of the partitioning of more gas-charged magma into the vertical conduit of a T-junction conduit system.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Maps of the Arctic Alaska boundary area as defined by the U.S. Arctic Research and Policy Act—Including geospatial characteristics of select marine and terrestrial features

This pamphlet presents a series of general reference maps showing relevant geospatial features of the U.S. Arctic boundary as defined by the U.S. Congress since 1984. The first generation of the U.S. Arctic Research and Policy Act (ARPA) boundary maps was originally formatted and published in 2009 by a private firm contracted with the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Arctic Research Commission. Recognizing the steadily increasing relevance of Arctic issues to national and global affairs that requires more functional projections and online tools, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Regional Office and the National Geospatial Technical Operations Center developed this updated series of ARPA boundary maps. Map sheet 1 shows the ARPA boundary as it relates to Alaska and marine features of the Bering Sea. Map sheet 2 shows the ARPA boundary from a circumpolar perspective. Map sheet 3 shows the national boundary of the U.S. 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone through the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas, facilitating Arctic domain awareness and more consistent territorial assessments of the U.S. Arctic. Map sheet 4 shows, in poster-size detail, the ARPA boundary as it relates to terrestrial features of Arctic Alaska north of the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers. Map sheet 5 shows, in poster-size detail, the ARPA boundary as it relates to marine and terrestrial features of the Aleutian Islands. These new maps collectively illustrate several value-added attributes, including updated bathymetry and shoreline refinements, demographic information, international borders and offshore territorial claims, Alaska conservation areas, Alaska land cover, Alaska terrestrial shaded relief, annual sea ice maximum extent, annual circumpolar 10-degree-Celsius isotherm, location of active volcanoes, and updated geospatial information. The static PDF-file maps offer value as standalone products but are intended for use with a potential interactive website that can be sourced by annual data updates, allowing users to access the various map layers in a dynamic up-to-date environment.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Gene expression profiles in two razor clam populations: Discerning drivers of population status

With rapidly changing marine ecosystems, shifts in abundance and distribution are being documented for a variety of intertidal species. We examined two adjacent populations of Pacific razor clams ( Siliqua patula ) in lower Cook Inlet, Alaska. One population (east) supported a sport and personal use fishery, but this has been closed since 2015 due to declines in abundance, and the second population (west) continues to support commercial and sport fisheries. We used gene expression to investigate potential causes of the east side decline, comparing razor clam physiological responses between east and west Cook Inlet. The target gene profile used was developed for razor clam populations in Alaska based on physiological responses to environmental stressors. In this study, we identified no differences of gene expression between east and west populations, leading to two potential conclusions: (1) differences in factors capable of influencing physiology exist between the east and west and are sufficient to influence razor clam populations but are not detected by the genes in our panel, or (2) physiological processes do not account for the differences in abundance, and other factors such as predation or changes in habitat may be impacting the east Cook Inlet population.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Bedrock gorge incision via anthropogenic meander cutoff

Bedrock river-gorge incision represents a fundamental landscape-shaping process, but a dearth of observational data at >10 yr timescales impedes understanding of gorge formation. I quantify 10 2 yr rates and processes of gorge incision using historical records, field observations, and topographic and image analysis of a human-caused bedrock meander cutoff along the North Fork Fortymile River in Alaska (USA). Miners cut off the meander in 1900 CE, abruptly lowering local base level by 6 m and forcing narrowing and steepening of the channel across a knickpoint that rapidly incised upstream. Tectonic quiescence, consistent rock erosivity, and low millennial erosion rates provide ideal boundary conditions for this 10 2 yr gorge-formation experiment. Initial fast knickpoint propagation (23 m/yr; 1900–1903 CE) slowed (4 m/yr; 1903–1981 CE) to diffusion (1981–2019 CE) as knickpoint slope decreased, yielding an ~350-m-long, 6-m-deep gorge within the pre–1900 CE channel. Today, diffusion dominates incision of a 500-m-long knickzone upstream of the gorge, where sediment transport likely limits ongoing adjustments to the anthropogenic cutoff. Results elucidate channel width, slope, discharge, and sediment dynamics consistent with a gradual transition from detachment- to transport-limited incision in fluvial adjustment to local base-level lowering.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Management foundations for navigating ecological transformation by resisting, accepting, or directing social-ecological change

Despite striking global change, management to ensure healthy landscapes and sustained natural resources has tended to set objectives on the basis of the historical range of variability in stationary ecosystems. Many social–ecological systems are moving into novel conditions that can result in ecological transformation. We present four foundations to enable a transition to future-oriented conservation and management that increases capacity to manage change. The foundations are to identify plausible social–ecological trajectories, to apply upstream and deliberate engagement and decision-making with stakeholders, to formulate management pathways to desired futures, and to consider a portfolio approach to manage risk and account for multiple preferences across space and time. We use the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska as a case study to illustrate how the four foundations address common land management challenges for navigating transformation and deciding when, where, and how to resist, accept, or direct social–ecological change.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Arctic Alaska Basin, Hanna Trough and Beaufortian Rifted Margin Composite Tectono-Sedimentary Elements

The Arctic Alaska Composite Tectono-Sedimentary Element (AA CTSE) as defined for this volume comprises Mississippian to Lower Cretaceous strata beneath the Alaska North Slope and the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas of the Arctic Ocean. The AA CTSE rests on Devonian and older sedimentary and metasedimentary rocks, considered economic basement for petroleum, and is overlain by Cretaceous to Cenozoic syntectonic strata deposited in the foreland of the Chukotka and Brooks Range orogens. The Mississippian – Triassic part of the AA CTSE is divided into a fold-and-thrust belt in the south and a relatively undeformed platform in the north. The Jurassic – Lower Cretaceous part of the AA CTSE is divided into synrift basins in the north and rift-shoulder deposits in the south. The AA CTSE includes oil-prone source rocks in the Triassic, Jurassic, and Cretaceous and proven reservoir rocks spanning the Mississippian to Lower Cretaceous. Much of the central part of the AA CTSE lies in the oil window whereas the northern and southern parts are mainly in the gas window. Known hydrocarbon accumulations in the AA CTSE total more than 30 billion barrels of oil equivalent and yet-to-find estimates suggest a similar volume remains to be discovered

Alaska↗