Geology topics

Research about Alaska

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Alaska.

At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Glacial meltwater and sediment resuspension can be important sources of dissolved and total dissolvable aluminum and manganese to coastal ocean surface waters

The supply of aluminum (Al) and manganese (Mn) to the Gulf of Alaska from coastal sources is poorly constrained. Here, we investigate the seasonality of sources to better constrain Al and Mn cycling in the coastal Gulf of Alaska region and add to our understanding of seasonal and interannual inputs. We examine Mn and Al behavior over the shelf to distinguish between redox-induced release of dissolved trace metals (i.e., diffusion from sediments), sediment resuspension, and meltwater release. Data suggest that, prior to the onset of stratification in the spring, shelf sediment resuspension from deep mixing is an important mechanism for trace metal delivery to surface waters. As spring and summer ensue, increased meltwater discharge coupled with increased surface water temperatures result in stratification of the water column within the coastal Gulf of Alaska, and meltwater becomes a more important source of Al and Mn to the surface waters. The limited data available suggest that a redox-driven flux of Mn from shelf sediments is not as important as the meltwater flux during the summer. In addition, dissolved trace metal concentrations in meltwater-influenced plumes over the shelf exhibit conservative mixing, while particulate trace metal concentrations do not behave conservatively. This indicates that there are different physical controls (particle settling vs. mixing) on the spatial distributions of dissolved and particulate Al and Mn in coastal waters, the manifestation of which are likely highly variable and dependent on the trace metal composition of the river and the hydrodynamics governing this interaction at any given time.

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USGS2023

Barrier islands and spits of northern Alaska: Decadal scale morphological change

Arctic barrier islands and spits are dynamic features influenced by a variety of oceanographic, geologic, and environmental factors. Many serve as habitat and protection for native species and shelter the coast from waves and storms that can flood and erode the adjacent mainland. This paper summarizes results of a study documenting changes to barrier morphology along the North Slope coast of Alaska between the United States-Canadian border and Cape Beaufort, from 1947 to 2020. Changes considered include number of barriers, area and perimeter, shoreline length, barrier sinuosity and width, presence and number of relict terminus features, presence and coverage of tundra vegetation, barrier orientation, termini migration rates, and elevation metrics. Wave conditions are also summarized and related to changes in barrier morphology. The results of this study help to better predict future barrier evolution and prevalence along Alaska’s coast by increasing our understanding of Arctic barrier development, migration, and degradation via the evaluation of historical morphometrics.

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USGS2023

Numerical model characterization of sediment transport potentials pre- and post-construction of an artificial island in Foggy Island Bay, Alaska

The anticipated construction of the Liberty Development Island near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, has created a need to understand how the island may influence sediment transport patterns and deposition on the nearby Boulder Patch ecosystem. This study uses a numerical model to characterize sediment transport pathways in Foggy Island Bay with and without the artificial island in place. We present the Delft3D-based model setup and application that yields an improved quantification and understanding of the region’s hydrodynamic, wave, and sediment transport patterns. The results for the present show mainly east-west directed, alongshore transport of silt and clay. Insertion of the planned island results in limited changes to the overall hydrodynamic and sediment transport patterns within the Bay but reverses erosional tendencies across a boulder patch, situated within a kilometer of the planned construction location, to being net depositional.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Exploring effects of vessels on walrus behaviors using telemetry, automatic identification system data and matching

Arctic marine mammals have had little exposure to vessel traffic and potential associated disturbance, but sea ice loss has increased accessibility of Arctic waters to vessels. Vessel disturbance could influence marine mammal population dynamics by altering behavioral activity budgets that affect energy balance, which in turn can affect birth and death rates. As an initial step in studying these linkages, we conducted the first comprehensive analysis to evaluate the effects of vessel exposure on Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) behaviors. We obtained >120,000 h of location and behavior (foraging, in-water not foraging, and hauled out) data from 218 satellite-tagged walruses and linked them to vessel locations from the marine automatic identification system (AIS). This yielded 206 vessel-exposed walrus telemetry hours for comparison to unexposed hours, which we used to assess if vessel exposure altered walrus behavior. We developed a filter to account for misclassification of vessel exposure of telemetered walruses. Then we tested for an effect of vessel exposure on walrus behaviors using a combination of exact and propensity score-based matching to account for confounding covariates, and we conducted statistical power analyses. We did not detect an effect of vessel exposure on walrus behaviors even when statistical power was high (i.e., for foraging walruses), which may have been due to the sample size-driven need to define vessel presence within a larger than desired distance (15-km measured radius) around a walrus. Although this study did not determine at what distance vessel exposure affects walrus behaviors, it provided an upper bound on the distance at which the vessels encountered may disturb foraging walruses. When more situation-specific information is lacking, this distance could be used as a conservative buffer to maintain between vessels and areas of high use by foraging walruses. Studies on behavioral consequences of closer proximities between walruses and vessels are needed, and our assessments of misclassification rates and statistical power can be used for future studies. We demonstrated that analytical approaches such as matching, which are rarely used in wildlife studies, are particularly useful for testing hypotheses with observational data.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Nest traits and major flooding events influence nest survival of Emperor Geese while regional environmental variation linked to climate does not

The reproductive ecology of geese that breed in the Arctic and subarctic is likely susceptible to the effects of climate change, which is projected to alter the environmental conditions of northern latitudes. Nest survival is an important component of productivity in geese; however, the effects of regional environmental conditions on nest survival are not well understood for some species, including the Emperor Goose ( Anser canagicus ), a species of conservation concern that is endemic to the Bering Sea region. We estimated nest survival and examined how indices of regional environmental conditions, nest traits (nest age, initiation date, and maximum number of eggs in the nest), and researcher disturbance influenced daily survival probability (DSP) of Emperor Goose nests using hierarchical models and 24 years of nest monitoring data (1994–2017) from the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (Y–K Delta) in western Alaska. Our results indicate that overall nest survival was generally high (µ = 0.766, 95% CRI: 0.655–0.849) and ranged from 0.327 (95% CRI: 0.176–0.482) in 2013 to 0.905 (95% CRI: 0.839–0.953) in 1995. We found that DSPs of nests were influenced by nest traits, negatively influenced by major tidal flooding events and by researcher disturbance, but were not influenced by regional indices of spring timing, temperature and precipitation during nesting, or fox and vole abundance on the Y–K Delta. However, the number of nests found each year was negatively related to our index of fox abundance, suggesting nests that failed as a result of fox predation may have never been discovered due to our limited nest-searching efforts during egg laying. Our results suggest that regional environmental variation had minimal influence on the nest survival of Emperor Geese, although major flooding events were important. Nevertheless, we suspect that within-year variation in local weather conditions and local abundance of predators and alternative prey may be important and should be considered in future studies.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Unrecorded tundra fires of the Arctic Slope, Alaska USA

Few fires are known to have burned the tundra of the Arctic Slope north of the Brooks Range in Alaska, USA. A total of 90 fires between 1969 and 2022 are known. Because fire has been rare, old burns can be detected by the traces of thermokarst and distinct vegetation they leave in otherwise uniform tundra, which are visible in aerial photograph archives. Several prehistoric tundra burns have been found in this way. Detection of tundra fires in this sparsely populated and remote area has been historically inconsistent and opportunistic, relying on reports by aircraft pilots. Fire reports have been logged into an administrative database which, out of necessity, has been used to scientifically evaluate changes in the fire regime. To improve the consistency of the record, we completed a systematic search of Landsat Collection 2 for the Brooks Range Foothills ecoregion over the period 1972–2022. We found 57 unrecorded tundra burns, about 41% of the total, which now numbers 138. Only 15% and 33% of all fires appear in MODIS and VIIRS satellite-borne thermal anomaly products, respectively. The fire frequency in the first 37 years of the record is 0.89 y −1 for natural ignitions that spread ≥10 ha. Frequency in the last 13 years is 2.5 y −1 , indicating a nearly three-fold increase in fire frequency.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study; Report 2: Modeled waves, hydrodynamics, and sediment transport within Foggy Island Bay

Renewed interest in nearshore oil exploration and production in the shallow waters of the Central Beaufort Sea Shelf has created a need to advance our understanding of the past, current, and future atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that affect existing and planned infrastructure and nearshore ecosystems. At the time of writing this report, Hilcorp Alaska LLC has received BOEM approval for an oil and gas Development and Production Plan (DPP) that includes the construction of the Liberty Drilling Island (LDI) in Foggy Island Bay, situated within Stefansson Sound circa 30 km east of Prudhoe Bay (Figure 1.1). The aim of this study is to investigate how longer periods of open water (defined as < 15% ice cover), decreased sea ice cover, and changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions might affect wave and storm surge conditions, sediment transport patterns, and coastal erosion rates within Foggy Island Bay as well as the modeled influence of the offshore artificial island on sediment transport patterns.

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USGS2023

Insights into the metamorphic history and origin of flake graphite mineralization at the Graphite Creek graphite deposit, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, USA

Graphite Creek is an unusual flake graphite deposit located on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, USA. We present field observations, uranium-lead (U–Pb) monazite and titanite geochronology, carbon (C) and sulfur (S) stable isotope geochemistry, and graphite Raman spectroscopy data from this deposit that support a new model of flake graphite ore genesis in high-grade metamorphic environments. The Graphite Creek deposit is within the second sillimanite metamorphic zone of the Kigluaik Mountains gneiss dome. Flake graphite, hosted in sillimanite-gneiss and quartz-biotite paragneiss, occurs as disseminations and in sets of very high grade (up to 50 wt.% graphite), semi-massive to massive graphite lenses 0.2 to 1 m wide containing quartz, sillimanite, inclusions of garnet porphyroblasts, K-feldspar, and tourmaline. Restitic garnet, sillimanite, graphite, and biotite accumulations indicate a high degree of anatexis and melt loss. Strong yttrium depletion in monazite, high europium ratios (Eu/Eu*), and excursions of high strontium and thorium concentrations are consistent with biotite dehydration melting. Monazite and titanite U–Pb ages record peak metamorphism from ~ 97 to 92 million years ago (Ma) and a retrograde event at ~ 85 Ma. Raman spectroscopy confirms the presence of carbonaceous material and highly ordered, crystalline graphite. Graphite δ 13 C VPDB values of − 30 to − 12‰ and pyrrhotite δ 34 S VCDT values of − 14 to 10‰ are consistent with derivation from organic carbon and sulfur in sedimentary rocks, respectively. These data collectively suggest that formation of massive graphite lenses occurred approximately synchronously with high-temperature metamorphism and anatexis of a highly carbonaceous pelitic protolith. Melt extraction and fluid release associated with anatexis were likely crucial for concentrating graphite. High-temperature, graphitic migmatite sequences within high-strain shear zones may be favorable for the occurrence of high-grade flake graphite deposits.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Estimates of volcanic mercury emissions from Redoubt Volcano, Augustine Volcano, and Mount Spurr eruption ash

Ash is a potential sink of volcanically sourced atmospheric mercury (Hg), and the concentration of particle-bound Hg may provide constraints on Hg emissions during eruptions. We analyze Hg concentrations in 227 bulk ash samples from the Mount Spurr (1992), Redoubt Volcano (2009), and Augustine Volcano (2006) volcanic eruptions to investigate large-scale spatial, temporal, and volcanic-source trends. We find no significant difference in Hg concentrations in bulk ash by distance or discrete eruptive events at each volcano, suggesting that in-plume reactions converting gaseous Hg 0 to adsorbed Hg 2+ are happening on shorter timescales than considered in this study (minutes) and any additional in-plume controls are not discernable within intra-volcanic sample variability. However, we do find a significant difference in Hg concentration of ash among volcanic sources, which indicates that volcanoes may emit comparatively high or low quantities of Hg. We combine our Hg findings with total mass estimates of ashfall deposits to calculate minimum, first-order Hg emissions of 8.23 t Hg for Mount Spurr (1992), 1.25 t Hg for Redoubt Volcano (2009), and 0.16 t Hg for Augustine Volcano (2006). In particular, we find that Mount Spurr is a high Hg emitting volcano, and that its 1992 particulate Hg emissions likely contributed substantially to the global eruptive volcanic Hg budget for that year. Based on our findings, previous approaches that use long-term Hg/SO 2 mass ratios to estimate eruptive total Hg under-account for Hg emitted in explosive events, and global volcanogenic Total Hg estimates need revisiting.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Slow slip detectability in seafloor pressure records offshore Alaska

In subduction zones worldwide, seafloor pressure data are used to observe tectonic deformation, particularly from megathrust earthquakes and slow slip events (SSEs). However, such measurements are also sensitive to oceanographic circulation-generated pressures over a range of frequencies that conflate with tectonic signals of interest. Using seafloor pressure and temperature data from the Alaska Amphibious Community Seismic Experiment, and sea surface height data from satellite altimetry, we evaluate the efficacy of various seasonal and oceanographic pressure signal proxy corrections and conduct synthetic tests to determine their impact on the timing and amplitude prediction of ramp-like signals typical of SSEs. We find that subtracting out the first mode of the complex empirical orthogonal functions of the pressure records on either the shelf or slope yields signal root-mean-square error (RMS) reductions up to 73% or 80%, respectively. Additional correction with proxies that exploit the depth-dependent spatial coherence of pressure records provides cumulative variance reductions up to 83% and 93%, respectively. Our detectability tests show that the timing and amplitude of synthetic SSE-like ramps can be well constrained for ramp amplitudes ≥4 cm on the shelf and ≥2 cm on the slope, using a fully automated detector. The principal limits on detectability are residual abrupt changes in pressure that occur as part of the transition to and from summer to winter conditions but are not adequately characterized by our seasonal corrections, as well as the inability to properly account for instrumental drift, which is not readily separated from the seasonal signal.

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USGS2023

High winds and melting sea ice trigger landward movement in a polar bear population of concern

Some animal species are responding to climate change by altering the timing of events like mating and migration. Such behavioral plasticity can be adaptive, but it is not always. Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation have mostly remained on ice year-round, but as the climate warms and summer sea ice declines, a growing proportion of the subpopulation is summering ashore. The triggers of this novel behavior are not well understood. Our study uses a parametric time-to-event model to test whether biological and/or time-varying environmental variables thought to influence polar bear movement and habitat selection also drive decisions to swim ashore. We quantified the time polar bears spent occupying offshore sea ice of varying ice concentrations. We evaluated variations in the ordinal date bears moved to land with respect to local environmental conditions such as sea ice concentration and wind across 10 years (2005–2015). Results from our study suggest that storm events (i.e., sustained high wind speeds) may force polar bears from severely degraded ice habitat and catalyze seasonal movements to land. Unlike polar bears long adapted to complete summer ice melt, southern Beaufort Sea bears that summer ashore appear more tolerant of poor-quality sea ice habitat and are less willing to abandon it. Our findings provide a window into emergent, climatically mediated behavior in an Arctic marine mammal vulnerable to rapid habitat decline.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Declines in body size of sockeye salmon associated with increased competition in the ocean

Declining body sizes have been documented for several species of Pacific salmon; however, whether size declines are caused mainly by ocean warming or other ecological factors, and whether they result primarily from trends in age at maturation or changing growth rates remain poorly understood. We quantified changes in mean body size and contributions from shifting size-at-age and age structure of mature sockeye salmon returning to Bristol Bay, Alaska, over the past 60 years. Mean length declined by 3%, corresponding to a 10% decline in mean body mass, since the early 1960s, though much of this decline occurred since the early 2000s. Changes in size-at-age were the dominant cause of body size declines and were more consistent than trends in age structure among the major rivers that flow into Bristol Bay. Annual variation in size-at-age was largely explained by competition among Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and interspecific competition with other salmon in the North Pacific Ocean. Warm winters were associated with better growth of sockeye salmon, whereas warm summers were associated with reduced growth. Our findings point to competition at sea as the main driver of sockeye salmon size declines, and emphasize the trade-off between fish abundance and body size.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Increasing Alaskan river discharge during the cold season is driven by recent warming

Arctic hydrology is experiencing rapid changes including earlier snow melt, permafrost degradation, increasing active layer depth, and reduced river ice, all of which are expected to lead to changes in stream flow regimes. Recently, long-term (>60 years) climate reanalysis and river discharge observation data have become available. We utilized these data to assess long-term changes in discharge and their hydroclimatic drivers. River discharge during the cold season (October–April) increased by 10% per decade. The most widespread discharge increase occurred in April (15% per decade), the month of ice break-up for the majority of basins. In October, when river ice formation generally begins, average monthly discharge increased by 7% per decade. Long-term air temperature increases in October and April increased the number of days above freezing (+1.1 d per decade) resulting in increased snow ablation (20% per decade) and decreased snow water equivalent (−12% per decade). Compared to the historical period (1960–1989), mean April and October air temperature in the recent period (1990–2019) have greater correlation with monthly discharge from 0.33 to 0.68 and 0.0–0.48, respectively. This indicates that the recent increases in air temperature are directly related to these discharge changes. Ubiquitous increases in cold and shoulder-season discharge demonstrate the scale at which hydrologic and biogeochemical fluxes are being altered in the Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study--Report 1: Field measurements and model development

Renewed interest in nearshore oil exploration and production in the shallow waters of the Central Beaufort Sea Shelf has created a need to advance our understanding of the past, current, and future atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that affect existing and planned infrastructure and nearshore ecosystems. At the time of writing this report, Hilcorp Alaska, LLC, has received BOEM approval for an oil and gas Development and Production Plan (DPP) that includes the construction of the Liberty Drilling Island (LDI) in Foggy Island Bay, situated within Stefansson Sound circa 30 km east of Prudhoe Bay (Figure 1.1). The aim of this study is to investigate how longer periods of open water (defined as < 15% ice cover), decreased sea ice cover, and changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions might affect wave and storm surge conditions, sediment transport patterns, and coastal erosion rates within Foggy Island Bay as well as the modeled influence of the offshore artificial island on sediment transport patterns.

Foggy Island Bay↗

USGS2023

Joint spatiotemporal models to predict seabird densities at sea

Introduction: Seabirds are abundant, conspicuous members of marine ecosystems worldwide. Synthesis of distribution data compiled over time is required to address regional management issues and understand ecosystem change. Major challenges when estimating seabird densities at sea arise from variability in dispersion of the birds, sampling effort over time and space, and differences in bird detection rates associated with survey vessel type. Methods: Using a novel approach for modeling seabirds at sea, we applied joint dynamic species distribution models (JDSDM) with a vector-autoregressive spatiotemporal framework to survey data collected over nearly five decades and archived in the North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database. We produced monthly gridded density predictions and abundance estimates for 8 species groups (77% of all birds observed) within Cook Inlet, Alaska. JDSDMs included habitat covariates to inform density predictions in unsampled areas and accounted for changes in observed densities due to differing survey methods and decadal-scale variation in ocean conditions. Results: The best fit model provided a high level of explanatory power (86% of deviance explained). Abundance estimates were reasonably precise, and consistent with limited historical studies. Modeled densities identified seasonal variability in abundance with peak numbers of all species groups in July or August. Seabirds were largely absent from the study region in either fall (e.g., murrelets) or spring (e.g., puffins) months, or both periods (shearwaters). Discussion: Our results indicated that pelagic shearwaters ( Ardenna spp.) and tufted puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) have declined over the past four decades and these taxa warrant further investigation into underlying mechanisms explaining these trends. JDSDMs provide a useful tool to estimate seabird distribution and seasonal trends that will facilitate risk assessments and planning in areas affected by human activities such as oil and gas development, shipping, and offshore wind and renewable energy.

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USGS2023

Adult spawners: A critical period for subarctic Chinook salmon in a changing climate

Concurrent, distribution-wide abundance declines of some Pacific salmon species, including Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), highlights the need to understand how vulnerability at different life stages to climate stressors affects population dynamics and fisheries sustainability. Yukon River Chinook salmon stocks are among the largest subarctic populations, near the northernmost extent of the species range. Existing research suggests that Yukon River Chinook salmon population dynamics are largely driven by factors occurring between the adult spawner life stage and their offspring's first summer at sea (second year post-hatching). However, specific mechanisms sustaining chronic poor productivity are unknown, and there is a tremendous sense of urgency to understand causes, as declines of these stocks have taken a serious toll on commercial, recreational, and indigenous subsistence fisheries. Therefore, we leveraged multiple existing datasets spanning parent and juvenile stages of life history in freshwater and marine habitats. We analyzed environmental data in association with the production of offspring that survive to the marine juvenile stage (juveniles per spawner). These analyses suggest more than 45% of the variability in the production of juvenile Chinook salmon is associated with river temperatures or water discharge levels during the parent spawning migration. Over the past two decades, parents that experienced warmer water temperatures and lower discharge in the mainstem Yukon River produced fewer juveniles per spawning adult. We propose the adult spawner life stage as a critical period regulating population dynamics. We also propose a conceptual model that can explain associations between population dynamics and climate stressors using independent data focused on marine nutrition and freshwater heat stress. It is sobering to consider that some of the northernmost Pacific salmon habitats may already be unfavorable to these cold-water species. Our findings have immediate implications, given the common assumption that northern ranges of Pacific salmon offer refugia from climate stressors.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Recent history of glacial lake outburst floods, analysis of channel changes, and development of a two-dimensional flow and sediment transport model of the Snow River near Seward, Alaska

Snow Lake, a glacially dammed lake on the Snow Glacier near Seward, Alaska, drains rapidly every 14 months–3 years, causing flooding along the Snow River. Highway, railroad, and utility infrastructure on the lower Snow River floodplain is vulnerable to flood damage. Historical hydrology, geomorphology, and two-dimensional hydraulic and sediment transport modeling were used to assess the flood risks from Snow Lake outburst floods. Floods have become more frequent, peaked more rapidly, and have had generally higher peaks over the last 20 years as the Snow Glacier has thinned, translating to a greater potential for flood damage. Rapidly shifting channel locations and the occasional introduction of large volumes of debris to the river also threaten infrastructure on the floodplain and in the channel. An assessment of the historical channel planform between 1951 and 2019 showed that there have been more and less stable segments along the lower Snow River and that channel migration has generally been toward the east. An analysis of floodplain elevations using 2008 light detection and ranging (lidar) showed that the main channel is relatively high compared to floodplain channels that carry floodwaters along the railroad grade, so that once the main channel banks are overtopped water rapidly disperses throughout the floodplain. A two-dimensional flow and sediment transport model was developed, and its simulation results were compared to three past outburst floods from 2007, 2017, and 2019. Despite the complex floodplain and channel geometry, coarse resolution of the mesh, and sediment input data, the model successfully simulated areas of observed scour along the railroad grade and at the guidebank to the highway bridge. The modeled water-surface elevations generally replicated peak elevations recorded at a streamgage in the middle of the model domain and at pressure transducers installed on the floodplain and main channel, although there were discrepancies on the rising limb and some locations had a poorer fit than others. A model of a hypothetical check flood, approximately 150 percent of the largest recorded outburst flood, was developed to provide hydraulic variables to use when planning for infrastructure upgrades.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Borealization of nearshore fishes on an interior Arctic shelf over multiple decades

Borealization is a type of community reorganization where Arctic specialists are replaced by species with more boreal distributions in response to climatic warming. The process of borealization is often exemplified by the northward range expansions and subsequent proliferation of boreal species on the Pacific and Atlantic inflow Arctic shelves (i.e., Bering/Chukchi and Barents seas, respectively). But the circumpolar nearshore distribution of Arctic-boreal fishes that predates recent warming suggests borealization is possible beyond inflow shelves. To examine this question, we revisited two nearshore lagoons in the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea (Kaktovik and Jago lagoons, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA), a High Arctic interior shelf. We compared summer fish species assemblage, catch rate, and size distribution among three periods that spanned a 30-year record (baseline conditions, 1988–1991; moderate sea ice decline, 2003–2005; rapid sea ice decline, 2017–2019). Fish assemblages differed among periods in both lagoons, consistent with borealization. Among Arctic specialists, a clear decline in fourhorn sculpin ( Myoxocephalus quadricornis , Kanayuq in Iñupiaq) occurred in both lagoons with 86%–90% lower catch rates compared with the baseline period. Among the Arctic-boreal species, a dramatic 18- to 19-fold increase in saffron cod ( Eleginus gracilis , Uugaq) occurred in both lagoons. Fish size (length) distributions demonstrated increases in the proportion of larger fish for most species examined, consistent with increasing survival and addition of age-classes. These field data illustrate borealization of an Arctic nearshore fish community during a period of rapid warming. Our results agree with predictions that Arctic-boreal fishes (e.g., saffron cod) are well positioned to exploit the changing Arctic ecosystem. Another Arctic-boreal species, Dolly Varden ( Salvelinus malma , Iqalukpik), appear to have already responded to warming by shifting from Arctic nearshore to shelf waters. More broadly, our findings suggest that areas of borealization could be widespread in the circumpolar nearshore.

Alaska↗