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Recurrence interval and event age data for Type A faults

This appendix summarizes available recurrence interval, event age, and timing of most recent event data for Type A faults considered in the Earthquake Rate Model 2 (ERM 2) and used in the ERM 2 Appendix C analysis as well as Appendix N (time-dependent probabilities). These data have been compiled into an Excel workbook named Appendix B A-fault event ages_recurrence_V5.0 (herein referred to as the Appendix B workbook). For convenience, the Appendix B workbook is attached to the end of this document as a series of tables. The tables within the Appendix B workbook include site locations, event ages, and recurrence data, and in some cases, the interval of time between earthquakes is also reported. The Appendix B workbook is organized as individual worksheets, with each worksheet named by fault and paleoseismic site. Each worksheet contains the site location in latitude and longitude, as well as information on event ages, and a summary of recurrence data. Because the data has been compiled from different sources with different presentation styles, descriptions of the contents of each worksheet within the Appendix B spreadsheet are summarized.

Open-File Report↗

USGS-WHOI-DPRI Coulomb Stress-Transfer Model for the January 12, 2010, MW=7.0 Haiti Earthquake

Using calculated stress changes to faults surrounding the January 12, 2010, rupture on the Enriquillo Fault, and the current (January 12 to 26, 2010) aftershock productivity, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), and Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (DPRI) have made rough estimates of the chance of a magnitude (Mw)=7 earthquake occurring during January 27 to February 22, 2010, in Haiti. The probability of such a quake on the Port-au-Prince section of the Enriquillo Fault is about 2 percent, and the probability for the section to the west of the January 12, 2010, rupture is about 1 percent. The stress changes on the Septentrional Fault in northern Haiti are much smaller, although positive.

Open-File Report↗

Development of a technique for the rapid estimation of earthquake losses

A simple, general technique has been outlined for the rapid, approximate estimation of building losses resulting from ground shaking during earthquakes. The technique has been applied to the San Francisco Bay area. Ground shaking, ground failures of various kinds, surface faulting, tsunamis, and earthquake induced fires are all responsible for earthquake building losses. Only losses associated with ground shaking are considered in this report for a number of reasons. Losses associated with various types of ground failure such as landsliding and liquefaction are difficult to estimate because the conditions necessary for these effects to occur are not completely understood and/or may be difficult to identify. Losses related to surface faulting are believed to be small as a proportion of total losses (Algermissen and others, 1972), and losses related to tsunamis have been quite rare along the central California coast. Well-established methods are available for estimating fire losses, but these losses are beyond the scope of this report.

California↗

Table-top earthquakes; a demonstration of seismology for teachers and students that can be used to augment lessons in earth science, physics, math, social studies, geography

The apparatus consists of a heavy object that is dragged steadily with an elastic cord. Although pulled with a constant velocity, the heavy object repeatedly slides and then stops. A small vibration sensor, attached to a computer display, graphically monitors this intermittent motion. 2 This intermittent sliding motion mimics the intermittent fault slippage that characterizes the earthquake fault zones. In tectonically active regions, the Earth's outer brittle shell, which is about 50 km thick, is slowly deformed elastically along active faults. As the deformation increases, stress also increases, until fault slippage releases the stored elastic energy. This process is called elastic rebound. Detailed instructions are given for assembly and construction of this demonstration. Included are suggested sources for the vibration sensor (geophone) and the computer interface. Exclusive of the personal computer, the total cost is between $125 and $150. I gave a talk at the Geological Society of America's Cordilleran Section Centennial meeting on June 2, 1999. The slides show how this table-top demonstration can be used to help meet many of the K-12 teaching goals described in Benchmarks for Science Literacy (American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1993).

Open-File Report↗

A media-based assessment of damage and ground motions from the January 26th, 2001 M 7.6 Bhuj, India earthquake

We compiled available news and internet accounts of damage and other effects from the 26th January, 2001, Bhuj earthquake, and interpreted them to obtain modified Mercalli intensities at over 200 locations throughout the Indian subcontinent. These values are used to map the intensity distribution using a simple mathematical interpolation method. The maps reveal several interesting features. Within the Kachchh region, the most heavily damaged villages are concentrated towards the western edge of the inferred fault, consistent with western directivity. Significant sediment-induced amplification is also suggested at a number of locations around the Gulf of Kachchh to the south of the epicenter. Away from the Kachchh region intensities were clearly amplified significantly in areas that are along rivers, within deltas, or on coastal alluvium such as mud flats and salt pans. In addition we use fault rupture parameters inferred from teleseismic data to predict shaking intensity at distances of 0-1000 km. We then convert the predicted hard rock ground motion parameters to MMI using a relationship (derived from internet-based intensity surveys) that assigns MMI based on the average effects in a region. The predicted MMIs are typically lower by 1-2 units than those estimated from news accounts. This discrepancy is generally consistent with the expected effect of sediment response, but it could also reflect other factors such as a tendency for media accounts to focus on the most dramatic damage, rather than the average effects. Our modeling results also suggest, however, that the Bhuj earthquake generated more high-frequency shaking than is expected for earthquakes of similar magnitude in California, and may therefore have been especially damaging.

Bhuj↗

Rheology of the lithosphere inferred from postseismic uplift following the 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake

We have modeled the broad postseismic uplift measured by geodetic leveling in the epicentral area of the 1959 Mw = 7.3 Hebgen Lake, Montana earthquake, a normal faulting event in the northern Basin and Range province. To fit the observed uplift we calculate synthetic postseismic deformation using the relaxation response of a gravitational viscoelastic Earth to the earthquake. For a model with an elastic plate overlying a viscoelastic half-space, we find that the elastic thickness is 38 ?? 8 km, which isclose to the local crustal thickness. The half-space viscosity is estimated at 4 ?? 1018??0.5 Pa s. The leveling data do not require a viscous lower crust but permit a lower bound viscosity of 1020 Pa s. The observed broad uplift cannot be explained by physically plausible afterslip on and below the coseismic fault. However, local deformation across the coseismic surface rupture requires shallow afterslip reaching the surface. The postseismic deformation induced by the estimated viscoelastic structure decays exponentially with a time constant of ???15 years. Because of coupling between the elastic layer and the viscoelastic substrate, this relaxation time is significantly longer than the 2 year Maxwell relaxation time of the viscous half-space itself. Our result suggests the importance of postseismic relaxation in interpreting high-precision global positioning system velocities. For example, our model results suggest that postseismic transient velocities from both the 1959 Hebgen Lake and the 1983 Mw = 6.9 Borah Peak earthquakes are currently as large as 1-2 mm/yr.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Roman, Visigothic and Islamic evidence of earthquakes recorded in the archaeological site of “El Tolmo de Minateda” (Prebetic Zone, southeast of Spain)

The archaeological site of “El Tolmo de Minateda” is located within the Albacete province (SE of Spain) and shows a continuous time record of ancient civilizations from 3500 yr BP onwards. However, three temporal gaps were identified in this archaeological record, all of them in relationship with a sudden and unclear abandonment of the city (Centuries 1st, 7th and 9-10th). The Archaeological Earthquake Effects (EAEs) supports the possibility that moderate to strong earthquakes were the cause of such abandonments: oriented columns fallen, collapsed walls and arches, abandonment of irrigation systems and fresh-water supplies, crashed pottery, etc. Despite of the scarce of instrumental seismicity and a few historical chronicles, paleoseismic studies performed in the neighbouring zone (Tobarra) suggest the presence of closer seismic sources as faults (Pozohondo Fault) affecting Quaternary alluvial, lacustrine deposits and colluviums. In this work, we propose the possibility that three moderate earthquakes devastated the ancient Roman city of Ilunum (Century 1st AD), the Visigothic city of Elo (Century 7th AD) and the Islamic city of Madinat Iyih (Century 9th-10thAD), all of them the same place: “El Tolmo de Minateda”.

Cuaternario y Geomorfologia↗

Southern surface rupture associated with the M 7.3 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

Although most evidence suggests that the 28 June 1992 M 7.3 Landers earthquake ruptured unilaterally north, significant surface rupture was mapped on the Eureka Peak and Burnt Mountain faults, to the south of the Landers epicenter. An eyewitness account reports that surface rupture occurred on the northern Eureka Peak fault within approximately 35 sec of the mainshock initiation. Array analysis of the Landers mainshock provides evidence in support of this report; a significant southern subevent in the early mainshock coda. I also analyze dense array recordings of a M 5.6 aftershock that occurred 3 min after the mainshock at 34°7.65′N, 116°23.82′W and show that there is strong evidence that this event was also associated with significant rupture on the Eureka Peak fault. This analysis thus suggests that the Eureka Peak fault rupture was not caused by direct bilateral mainshock rupture but instead was initially triggered less than a minute after the mainshock and reruptured by the M 5.6 aftershock. Results for the evolution of the Landers sequence suggest that mainshock subevents may in some cases be accurately described as aftershocks (i.e., disjoint triggered events) that occur within the duration of mainshock strong ground motion.

California↗

Surface Rupture Map of the 2020 M 6.5 Monte Cristo Range earthquake, Esmeralda and Mineral counties, Nevada

The 15 May 2020, M6.5 Monte Cristo Range earthquake was the largest earthquake in Nevada in over 66 years and occurred in a sparsely populated area of western Nevada about 74 km southeast of the town of Hawthorne. The earthquake produced surface rupture distributed across a 28-km-long zone along the eastward projection of the Candelaria fault in the Mina deflection of the central Walker Lane. Post-event field surveys mapped surface ruptures and measured displacements, which reached up to ~20 cm of oblique slip. Additional detailed mapping was completed using centimeter-resolution orthomosaics generated from Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle surveys. The rupture observations and displacement data are compiled into this 1:14,000-scale map, data tables, and accompanying digital dataset. The rupture consists of two distinct deformational domains roughly separated by U.S. Highway 95: ENE-trending ruptures with normal and left-oblique displacements in the western domain, and N- to NNE-trending ruptures with normal and right-oblique displacement in the eastern domain. The complex pattern of surface rupture is consistent with the projections of mapped bedrock and Quaternary faults in the area and illustrates the kinematics of slip partitioning at the junction of variably oriented structures in the shallow subsurface.

Nevada↗

Taking the pulse of the San Andreas Fault

The ninth of January, 1989, was the 32nd anniversary of the great southern California earthquake of 1857. the latest research shows that, on average, at least part of the section of the San Andreas fault that broke then should break again this year. But the same research suggests that the fault's average behavior could be misleading. A newly refined dating of the past 10 San Andreas ruptures adjacent to Los Angeles reveals a previously unrecognized clustering of large earthquakes in bunches of two or three. If this pattern were to hold, Los Angeles would wait at least another 80 years for another jolt from there. But the San Andreas is not that easy to get around.

California↗

Active Fault Near-Source Zones Within and Bordering the State of California for the 1997 Uniform Building Code

The fault sources in the Project 97 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the state of California were used to construct maps for defining near-source seismic coefficients, N a and N v , incorporated in the 1997 Uniform Building Code (ICBO 1997). The near-source factors are based on the distance from a known active fault that is classified as either Type A or Type B. To determine the near-source factor, four pieces of geologic information are required: (1) recognizing a fault and determining whether or not the fault has been active during the Holocene, (2) identifying the location of the fault at or beneath the ground surface, (3) estimating the slip rate of the fault, and (4) estimating the maximum earthquake magnitude for each fault segment. This paper describes the information used to produce the fault classifications and distances.

California↗

A methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA)

We present a methodology for conducting a site-specific probabilistic analysis of fault displacement hazard. Two approaches are outlined. The first relates the occurrence of fault displacement at or near the ground surface to the occurrence of earthquakes in the same manner as is done in a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for ground shaking. The methodology for this approach is taken directly from PSHA methodology with the ground-motion attenuation function replaced by a fault displacement attenuation function. In the second approach, the rate of displacement events and the distribution for fault displacement are derived directly from the characteristics of the faults or geologic features at the site of interest. The methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) was developed for a normal faulting environment and the probability distributions we present may have general application in similar tectonic regions. In addition, the general methodology is applicable to any region and we indicate the type of data needed to apply the methodology elsewhere.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Lateral spread hazard mapping of the northern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, for a M7.0 scenario earthquake

This paper describes the methodology used to develop a lateral spread-displacement hazard map for northern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, using a scenario M7.0 earthquake occurring on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault. The mapping effort is supported by a substantial amount of geotechnical, geologic, and topographic data compiled for the Salt Lake Valley, Utah. ArcGIS?? routines created for the mapping project then input this information to perform site-specific lateral spread analyses using methods developed by Bartlett and Youd (1992) and Youd et al. (2002) at individual borehole locations. The distributions of predicted lateral spread displacements from the boreholes located spatially within a geologic unit were subsequently used to map the hazard for that particular unit. The mapped displacement zones consist of low hazard (0-0.1 m), moderate hazard (0.1-0.3 m), high hazard (0.3-1.0 m), and very high hazard (> 1.0 m). As expected, the produced map shows the highest hazard in the alluvial deposits at the center of the valley and in sandy deposits close to the fault. This mapping effort is currently being applied to the southern part of the Salt Lake Valley, Utah, and probabilistic maps are being developed for the entire valley. ?? 2007, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Directivity in NGA earthquake ground motions: Analysis using isochrone theory

We present correction factors that may be applied to the ground motion prediction relations of Abrahamson and Silva, Boore and Atkinson, Campbell and Bozorgnia, and Chiou and Youngs (all in this volume) to model the azimuthally varying distribution of the GMRotI50 component of ground motion (commonly called 'directivity') around earthquakes. Our correction factors may be used for planar or nonplanar faults having any dip or slip rake (faulting mechanism). Our correction factors predict directivity-induced variations of spectral acceleration that are roughly half of the strike-slip variations predicted by Somerville et al. (1997), and use of our factors reduces record-to-record sigma by about 2-20% at 5 sec or greater period. ?? 2008, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗

The Landers earthquake; preliminary instrumental results

Early on the morning of June 28, 1992, millions of people in southern California were awakened by the largest earthquake to occur in the western United States in the past 40 yrs. At 4:58 a.m PDT (local time), faulting associated with the magnitude 7.3 earthquake broke through to earth's surface near the town of Landers, California. the surface rupture then propagated 70km (45 mi) to the north and northwest along a band of faults passing through the middle of the Mojave Desert. Fortunately, the strongest shaking occurred in uninhabited regions of the Mojave Desert. Still one child was killed in Yucca Valley, and about 400 people were injured in the surrounding area. the desert communities of Landers, Yucca Valley, and Joshua Tree in San Bernardino Country suffered considerable damage to buildings and roads. Damage to water and power lines caused problems in many areas.

California↗

Routine estimation of earthquake source complexity: The 18 October 1992 Colombian earthquake

We describe two methods, suitable for routine application to teleseismic recordings, that characterize the time history of seismic events. Stacking short-period signals from large regional arrays provides stable estimates of high-frequency radiation from the source, and an empirical Green's function deconvolution procedure extracts reliable, broadband time functions suitable for analysis of faulting complexity and the spatio-temporal extent of rupture. Combined, these procedures characterize the source radiation of large events ( M s > 7) between 200- and 0.5-sec periods.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Factors affecting the recognition of faults exposed in exploratory trenches

Trenching-a widely used method for evaluating fault activity-has limitations that can mislead investigators. Some segments of fault strands in trench walls may not be visible, and this nonvisibility can lead to incorrect interpretations of time of most recent displacement and recurrence intervals on a fault. We examined the logs of 163 trench exposures and tabulated data on more than 1,200 fault strands to investigate three categories of nonvisibility: (1) strands with obscure (invisible or poorly visible) segments, (2) strands that die out upward, and (3) strands that die out downward. About 14 percent of all the strands have obscure segments. Of the 143 strands on which it is possible to recognize dieout up (limited to strands for which position of ground surface at time of faulting is known), 45 percent do die out upward, and the fraction exceeds 70 percent for strike-slip and reverse faults. Thus a fault strand overlain by an apparently undisturbed deposit is not necessarily older than the deposit. More than 30 percent of all the strands die out downward, providing more evidence that fault strands can end for reasons other than being covered by deposits younger than the fault. Analysis of trench-log data revealed various relations between geologic factors and nonvisibility of fault strands. For example, fault type affects the incidence of nonvisibility, which is generally most common on strike-slip faults, less common on reverse faults, and least common on normal fau Its. The type of material penetrated by the fault also influences nonvisibility, which tends to be more common in soil horizons and sand, and less common in gravel. Dieout down is weakly influenced by fault displacement, decreasing in frequency with increase in displacement; the frequencies of obscure segments and dieout up do not vary consistently with fault displacement. Frequency of obscure segments generally decreases with increase in length of obscure segments, and frequency of dieout up generally decreases with depth of dieout up. Length of obscure segments and depth of dieout up are typically less than the effective thickness of associated beds. On the basis of few data, obscure segments seem to be more common on faults with younger, rather than older, ages of latest displacement. Our study revealed additional relations not directly related to nonvisibility. For example, the median widths of faults crossed by the trenches vary by fault type, strike-slip faults being narrower than dip-slip faults. In the shallow and mostly unconsolidated materials cut by the trenches, fault widths show only an erratic and, at best, weak relationship to fault displacements. Hanging walls are deformed more frequently than footwalls in dip-slip faults, but both walls are deformed at more than 30 percent of the exposures. We tabulated several phenomena that may indicate faulting or provide evidence of prehistorical earthquakes. Rotation of pebbles was identified in 41 percent of the exposures having gravel in the fault zone; type of fault has no strong influence on the incidence of pebble rotation. Fissures were recorded at 52 percent of the exposures and were more common in strike-slip and normal faults than in reverse fau Its. Gouge was reported at 1 5 percent of the exposures; fault type has no significant influence on its frequency. Slickensides were noted at 10 percent of the exposures, and fault type has an unknown influence on their incidence. Slickensides in unconsolidated materials were restricted to clay, silt, and gouge. Other mechanical or hydrologic effects related to faulting or earthquakesrubble, breccia, mixing, crushing, polishing, water barriers, c;ind probable liquefaction effects-were reported at fewer than 1 0 percent of the exposures.

Bulletin↗

Postseismic gravity change after the 2006–2007 great earthquake doublet and constraints on the asthenosphere structure in the central Kuril Islands

Large earthquakes often trigger viscoelastic adjustment for years to decades depending on the rheological properties and the nature and spatial extent of coseismic stress. The 2006 M w 8.3 thrust and 2007 M w 8.1 normal fault earthquakes of the central Kuril Islands resulted in significant postseismic gravity change in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) but without a discernible coseismic gravity change. The gravity increase of ~4 μGal, observed consistently from various GRACE solutions around the epicentral area during 2007–2015, is interpreted as resulting from gradual seafloor uplift by ~6 cm produced by postseismic relaxation. The GRACE data are best fit with a model of 25–35 km for the elastic thickness and ~10 18 Pa s for the Maxwell viscosity of the asthenosphere. The large measurable postseismic gravity change (greater than coseismic change) emphasizes the importance of viscoelastic relaxation in understanding tectonic deformation and fault-locking scenarios in the Kuril subduction zone.

Geophysical Research Letters↗