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Faults & earthquakes

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At least 1,189 records · Page 66Linked to original sources

USGS2003

Inferences drawn from two decades of alinement array measurements of creep on faults in the San Francisco Bay Region

We summarize over 20 years of monitoring surface creep on faults of the San Andreas system in the San Francisco Bay region using alinement arrays. The San Andreas fault is fully locked at five sites northwest from San Juan Bautista, the southern end of the 1906 earthquake rupture, that is, no creep (< 1 mm/yr) is observed. Likewise, the San Gregorio, Rodgers Creek, and West Napa faults show no creep . The measured creep rate on the Calaveras-Paicines fault from Hollister southward is either 6 or ∼ 10 mm/yr, depending on whether the arrays cross all of the creeping traces. Northward of Hollister, the central Calaveras creep rate reaches 14 ± 2 mm/yr but drops to ∼ 2 mm/yr near Calaveras Reservoir, where slip transfers to the southern Hayward fault at a maximum creep rate of 9 mm/yr at its south end. However, the Hayward fault averages only 4.6 mm/yr over most of its length. The Northern Calaveras fault , now creeping at 3-4 mm/yr, steps right to the Concord fault , which has a similar rate, 2.5-3.5 mm/yr, which is slightly slower than the 4.4 mm/yr rate on its northward continuation, the Green Valley fault . The Maacama fault creeps at 4.4 mm/yr near Ukiah and 6.5 mm/yr in Willits. The central and southern segments of the Calaveras fault are predominantly creeping, whereas the Hayward, Northern Calaveras, and Maacama faults are partly locked and, along with the Rodgers Creek and San Andreas, have high potential for major earthquakes.

California↗

USGS2007

The role of fault zone drilling

The objective of fault-zone drilling projects is to directly study the physical and chemical processes that control deformation and earthquake generation within active fault zones. An enormous amount of field, laboratory, and theoretical work has been directed toward the mechanical and hydrological behavior of faults over the past several decades. Nonetheless, it is currently impossible to differentiate between – or even adequately constrain – the numerous conceptual models of active faults proposed over the years. For this reason, the Earth science community is left in the untenable position of having no generally accepted paradigm for the mechanical behavior of faults at depth. One of the primary causes for this dilemma is the difficulty of either directly observing or inferring physical properties and deformation mechanisms along faults at depth, as well as the need to observe directly key parameters such as the state of stress acting on faults at depth, pore fluid pressure (and its possible variation in space and time), and processes associated with earthquake nucleation and rupture. Today, we know very little about the composition of active faults at depth, their constitutive properties, the state of in situ stress or pore pressure within fault zones, the origin of fault-zone pore fluids, or the nature and significance of time-dependent fault-zone processes.

Book chapter↗

USGS2004

New insights on stress rotations from a forward regional model of the San Andreas fault system near its Big Bend in southern California

Understanding the stress field surrounding and driving active fault systems is an important component of mechanistic seismic hazard assessment. We develop and present results from a time-forward three-dimensional (3-D) model of the San Andreas fault system near its Big Bend in southern California. The model boundary conditions are assessed by comparing model and observed tectonic regimes. The model of earthquake generation along two fault segments is used to target measurable properties (e.g., stress orientations, heat flow) that may allow inferences on the stress state on the faults. It is a quasi-static model, where GPS-constrained tectonic loading drives faults modeled as mostly sealed viscoelastic bodies embedded in an elastic half-space subjected to compaction and shear creep. A transpressive tectonic regime develops southwest of the model bend as a result of the tectonic loading and migrates toward the bend because of fault slip. The strength of the model faults is assessed on the basis of stress orientations, stress drop, and overpressures, showing a departure in the behavior of 3-D finite faults compared to models of 1-D or homogeneous infinite faults. At a smaller scale, stress transfers from fault slip transiently induce significant perturbations in the local stress tensors (where the slip profile is very heterogeneous). These stress rotations disappear when subsequent model earthquakes smooth the slip profile. Maps of maximum absolute shear stress emphasize both that (1) future models should include a more continuous representation of the faults and (2) that hydrostatically pressured intact rock is very difficult to break when no material weakness is considered. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2022

Creep rate models for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model: Physically constrained inversions for the distribution of creep on California faults

Widespread surface creep is observed across a number of active faults included in the United States (US) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). In northern California, creep occurs on the central section of the San Andreas fault, along the Hayward and Calaveras faults through the San Francisco Bay Area, and to the north coast region along the Maacama and Bartlett Springs faults. In southern California, creep is observed across the Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault, through the Brawley Seismic Zone, and along the Imperial and Superstition Hills faults. Seismic hazard assessments for California have accounted for creep using various data and methods, including the most recent Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) in 2013. The purpose of this study is to expand and update the UCERF3 creep rate data set for the 2023 release of the US NSHM and to invert geodetic data and the surface creep rate data for the spatial distribution of interseismic fault creep on California faults using an elastic model with physical creep constraints. The updated surface creep rate compilation consists of a variety of data types including alignment arrays, offset cultural markers, creepmeters, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, and Global Positioning System data. We compile a total of 497 surface creep rate measurements, 400 of which are new and 97 of which appear in the UCERF3 compilation. We compute creep rate distributions for each of the five 2023 NSHM geodetic‐based and geologic‐based deformation models. Computed creep rates are used to reduce the total fault moment rate available for earthquake sequences in the NSHM model. We find that, despite relatively large variability in model long‐term slip rates across all five deformation models, the variability in depth‐averaged creep rate across all models is relatively small, typically 5–10 mm/yr along the creeping San Andreas fault section and only 2–4 mm/yr along the Maacama and Rodgers Creek‐Hayward faults.

California↗

USGS2014

Using surface creep rate to infer fraction locked for sections of the San Andreas fault system in northern California from alignment array and GPS data

Surface creep rate, observed along five branches of the dextral San Andreas fault system in northern California, varies considerably from one section to the next, indicating that so too may the depth at which the faults are locked. We model locking on 29 fault sections using each section’s mean long‐term creep rate and the consensus values of fault width and geologic slip rate. Surface creep rate observations from 111 short‐range alignment and trilateration arrays and 48 near‐fault, Global Positioning System station pairs are used to estimate depth of creep, assuming an elastic half‐space model and adjusting depth of creep iteratively by trial and error to match the creep observations along fault sections. Fault sections are delineated either by geometric discontinuities between them or by distinctly different creeping behaviors. We remove transient rate changes associated with five large (M≥5.5) regional earthquakes. Estimates of fraction locked, the ratio of moment accumulation rate to loading rate, on each section of the fault system provide a uniform means to inform source parameters relevant to seismic‐hazard assessment. From its mean creep rates, we infer the main branch (the San Andreas fault) ranges from only 20%±10% locked on its central creeping section to 99%–100% on the north coast. From mean accumulation rates, we infer that four urban faults appear to have accumulated enough seismic moment to produce major earthquakes: the northern Calaveras (M 6.8), Hayward (M 6.8), Rodgers Creek (M 7.1), and Green Valley (M 7.1). The latter three faults are nearing or past their mean recurrence interval.

California↗

USGS2026

Preface to the focus section on intraplate earthquakes

More than a half century after plate tectonics provided an overarching framework to explain earthquakes along active plate boundaries, numerous theories have been proposed to explain where, why, and how often earthquakes occur well away from active plate boundaries, but a paradigm remains elusive. Even the classification of earthquakes away from active plate boundaries as "intraplate" raises issues, with potentially important distinctions between Stable Continental Regions and more actively deforming regions including passive margins and failed rifts. Some of the largest known intraplate earthquakes themselves remain enigmatic, having occurred before the modern instrumental era. Hazard assessments are often data-limited: low fault-slip rates relative to landscape modification rates result in poor discoverability of fault sources, challenging the characterization of source zones and earthquake recurrence; the completeness and homogenization of instrumental earthquake catalogs using uncertain magnitude conversions can lead to uncertainties in earthquake recurrence; and, limited strong-motion observations for large-magnitude events at near-source distances leads to uncertainties in the selection and development of ground-motion models for seismic hazard studies. Data from recent intraplate earthquakes around the world—from the moment magnitude M 7.7 2001 Bhuj, India, earthquake 25 years ago to the 2024 M 4.8 Tewksbury, New Jersey earthquake—have yielded both new insights and new questions. The papers in this special focus discuss many of the long-standing challenges involved with intraplate earthquake investigations and provide a snapshot of the state of the art with current research to advance our understanding.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS1967

Effects of the earthquake of March 27, 1964, at Seward, Alaska

Seward, in south-central Alaska, was one of the towns most devastated by the Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964. The greater part of Seward is built on an alluvial fan-delta near the head of Resurrection Bay on the southeast coast of the Kenai Peninsula. It is one of the few ports in south-central Alaska that is ice free all year, and the town’s economy is almost entirely dependent upon its port facilities. The Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, magnitude approximately 8.3–8.4, began at 6:36 p.m. Its epicenter was in the northern part of the Prince William Sound area; focal depth was 20–50 km. Strong ground motion at Seward lasted 3–4 minutes. During the shaking, a strip of land 50–400 feet wide along the Seward waterfront, together with docks and other harbor facilities, slid into Resurrection Bay as a result of large-scale submarine landsliding. Fractures ruptured the ground for'severa1 hundred feet back from the landslide scarps. Additional ground was fractured in the Forest Acres subdivision and on the alluvial floor of the Resurrection River valley; fountaining and sand boils accompanied the ground fracturing. Slide-generated wares, possibly seiche waves, and seismic sea waves crashed onto shore; ware runup was as much as 30 feet above mean lower low water and caused tremendous damage; fire from burning oil tanks added to the destruction. Damage from strong ground motion itself was comparatively minor. Tectonic subsidence of about 3.6 feet resulted in low areas being inundated at high tide. Thirteen people were killed and five were injured as a result of the earthquake. Eighty-six houses were totally destroyed and 260 were heavily damaged. The harbor facilities were almost completely destroyed, and the entire economic base of the town was wiped out. The total cost to replace the destroyed public and private facilities was estimated at $22 million. Seward lies on the axis of the Chugach Mountains geosyncline. The main structural trend in the mapped area, where the rocks consist almost entirely of graywacke and phyllite, is from near north to N. 20° E. Beds and cleavage of the rocks commonly dip 70° W. or NW. to near vertical. Locally, the rocks are complexly folded or contorted. So major faults were found in the mapped area, but small faults, shear zones, and joints are common. Surficial deposits of the area hare been divided for mapping into the following units: drift deposits, alluvial fan deposits, valley alluvium, intertidal deposits, landslide deposits, and artificial fill. Most of these units intergrade and were deposited more or less contemporaneously. The drift deposits consist chiefly of till that forms moraines along the lower flanks of the Resurrection River valley and up tributary valleys. The till is predominantly silt and sand and lesser amounts of clay-size particles, gravel, cobbles, and boulders. Glacial outwash and stratified ice-contact deposits constitute the remainder of the drift deposits. Fans and fan-deltas have been deposited at the valley mouths of tributary streams. Some, including the one upon which Seward built, project into Resurrection Bay, and deltaic-type deposits form their distal edges. The larger fans—composed chiefly of loosely compacted and poorly sorted silt, sand, and gravel—form broad aprons having low gradients. The fan deposits range in thickness from about 100 feet to possibly several hundred feet and, at least in some places, lie on a platform of compact drift. Smaller fans at the mouths of several canyons have steep gradients and considerable local relief. Valley alluvium, deposited chiefly by the Resurrection River, consists mostly of coarse sand and fine to medium gravel. In the axial part of the valley it is probably more than 100 feet thick. Near the head of Resurrection Bay, the alluvium is underlain by at least 75 feet of marine deltaic sediments, which are in turn underlain by 600 or more feet of drift in the deepest part of the bedrock valley. Beach, deltaic, and estuarine sediments, deposited on intertidal flats at the head of the bay and along far1 margins that extend into the bay, arc mapped as intertidal deposits. They consist mostly of silt, sand, and fine gravel, and lesser amounts of clay-size particles. The earthquake reactivated old slides and trigged new ones in the mountains. Rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, and creep of talus deposits characterized slide activity on the steeper slops. The Seward waterfront had been extended before the earthquake by adding artificial fill consisting of loose sand and gravel; part of the lagoon area had been filled with refuse. After the earth- quake, fill, consisting of silt and sand dredged from the head of the bay, was pumped onto part of the lagoon area and also on land at the northwest corner of the bay. Response to the disaster was immediate and decisive. City, State, and Federal agencies, as well as other organizations and individuals, gave unstintingly of their time and facilities. Within a few days, there was temporary restoration of water, sewerage, and electrical facilities. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was authorized to select sites and construct a new dock for the Alaska Railroad, a new small-boat basin, and related facilities. The firm of Shannon and Wilson, Inc., under contract to the Corps of Engineers, investigated subsurface soils extensively to determine the factors responsible for the sliding along the Seward waterfront and to assist in site selection for reconstruction of the destroyed harbor facilities. Borings also made along the Seward waterfront and at the head of the bay, and laboratory tests were conducted on pertinent samples. These studies were augmented by geophysical studies both on land and in the bay. In addition, the Corps of Engineers made shallow borings on the intertidal flats at the head of the bay and performed pile-driving and load tests. Borings also were drilled and test pits were dug in the subdivision of Forest Acres. Sliding along the Seward waterfront markedly deepened the water along the former shoreline. Post-earthquake slopes of the bay floor immediately offshore also are steeper in places than before the earthquake. The strong ground motion of the earthquake triggered the landsliding, but several factors may have contributed to the magnitude and characteristics of the slides. These factors are: (1) the long duration of strong ground motion, (2) the grain size and texture of the material involved in the sliding, (3) the probability that the finer grained materials liquefied and flowed seaward, and (4) the added load of manmade facilities built on the edge of the shore, Secondary effects of the slides themselves—sudden drawdown of water, followed by the weight of returning waves—also may have contributed to the destruction. Submarine sliding at the northwest corner of the bay occurred in fine-grained deltaic deposits whose frontal slopes probably were in metastable equilibrium under static conditions. Uplift pressures from aquifers under hydrostatic head, combined with the probable liquefaction characteristics of the sediments when vibrated by strong ground motion, probably caused the material to slide and flow seaward as a heavy slurry. Under static conditions, no major shoreline or submarine landsliding is expected in the Seward area; in the event of another severe earthquake, however, additional sliding is likely along the Seward waterfront and also in the deltaic deposits at the northwest corner of the bay. Fractured ground in back of the present shoreline along the Seward waterfront is an area of incipient landslides that would be unstable under strong shaking. For this reason the Scientific and Engineering Task Force placed the area in a high-risk classification and recommended no repair, rehabilitation, or new construction in this area involving use of Federal funds; it was further recommended that the area should be reserved for park or other uses that do not involve large congregations of people. The deltaic deposits at the head of the bay probably also would be susceptible to sliding during another large earthquake. This sliding would result in further landward retreat of the present shoreline toward the new railroad dock. Specifications for the new dock, whose seaward end is now approximately 1,100 feet from the back scarp of the subaqueous landslide, require design pro- visions to withstand seismic shock up to certain limits. Earthquake-induced fracturing of the ground in the subdivision of Forest Acres was confined to the lower part of a broad alluvial fan. There, sewer and water lines were ruptured and the foundations of some homes were heavily damaged. Landsliding, such as occurred along the shoreline of the bay, was not a contributing cause of the fracturing. Two hypotheses are offered to explain the fracturing: 1. Seismic energy was transformed into visible surface waves of such amplitude that the strength of surface layer was exceeded and rupturing occurred; tensional and compressional stresses alternately opened and closed the fractures and forced out water and mud. 2. Compaction by vibration of the fine-grained deposits of the fan caused ground settlement and fracturing; ground water under temporary hydrostatic head was forced to the surface as fountains and carried the finer material with it. Water waves that crashed onto shore, while shaking was still continuing, were generated chiefly by onshore and offshore landsliding. Waves that overran the shores about 25 minutes after shaking stopped and that continued to arrive for the next several hours are believed to be seismic sea waves (tsunamis) that originated in an uplifted area in the Gulf of Alaska. During the time of seismic sea-wave activity and perhaps preceding it, seiche wares also may have been generated within Resurrection Bay and complicated the wave effects along the shoreline.

Alaska↗

USGS1998

The San Gabriel Mountains bright reflective zone: Possible evidence of young mid-crustal thrust faulting in southern California

During the Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment (LARSE), a reflection/refraction survey was conducted along a line extending northeastward from Seal Beach, California, to the Mojave Desert, crossing the Los Angeles basin and San Gabriel Mountains. Shots and receivers were spaced most densely through the San Gabriel Mountains for the purpose of obtaining a combined reflection and refraction image of the crust in that area. A stack of common-midpoint (CMP) data reveals a bright reflective zone, 1-s thick, that dominates the stack and extends throughout most of the mid-crust of the San Gabriel Mountains. The top of this zone ranges in depth from 6 s (∼18-km depth) in the southern San Gabriel Mountains to 7.5 s (∼23-km depth) in the northern San Gabriel Mountains. The zone bends downward beneath the surface traces of the San Gabriel and San Andreas faults. It is brightest between these two faults, where it is given the name San Gabriel Mountains ‘bright spot’ (SGMBS), and becomes more poorly defined south of the San Gabriel fault and north of the San Andreas fault. The polarity of the seismic signal at the top of this zone is clearly negative, and our analysis suggests it represents a negative velocity step. The magnitude of the velocity step is approximately 1.7 km/s. In at least one location, an event with positive polarity can be observed 0.2 s beneath the top of this zone, indicating a thickness of the order of 500 m for the low-velocity zone at this location. Several factors combine to make the preferred interpretation of this bright reflective zone a young fault zone, possibly a ‘master’ decollement. (1) It represents a significant velocity reduction. If the rocks in this zone contain fluids, such a reduction could be caused by a differential change in fluid pressure between the caprock and the rocks in the SGMBS; near-lithostatic fluid pressure is required in the SGMBS. Such differential changes are believed to occur in the neighborhood of active fault zones, where ‘fault-value’ action has been postulated. Less likely alternative explanations for this velocity reduction include the presence of magma and a change in composition to serpentinite or metagraywacke. (2) It occurs at or near the brittle-ductile transition, at least in the southern San Gabriel Mountains, a possible zone of concentrated shear. (3) A thin reflection rising from its top in the southern San Gabriel Mountains projects to the hypocenter of the 1987 M 5.9 Whittier Narrows earthquake, a blind thrust-fault earthquake with one focal plane subparallel to the reflection. Alternatively, one could argue that the bends or disruptions in the reflective zone seen at the San Gabriel and San Andreas faults are actually offsets and that the reflective zone is therefore an older feature, possibly an older fault zone.

California↗

USGS2000

Active, capable, and potentially active faults - a paleoseismic perspective

Maps of faults (geologically defined source zones) may portray seismic hazards in a wide range of completeness depending on which types of faults are shown. Three fault terms - active, capable, and potential - are used in a variety of ways for different reasons or applications. Nevertheless, to be useful for seismic-hazards analysis, fault maps should encompass a time interval that includes several earthquake cycles. For example, if the common recurrence in an area is 20,000-50,000 years, then maps should include faults that are 50,000-100,000 years old (two to five typical earthquake cycles), thus allowing for temporal variability in slip rate and recurrence intervals. Conversely, in more active areas such as plate boundaries, maps showing faults that are <10,000 years old should include those with at least 2 to as many as 20 paleoearthquakes. For the International Lithosphere Programs' Task Group II-2 Project on Major Active Faults of the World our maps and database will show five age categories and four slip rate categories that allow one to select differing time spans and activity rates for seismic-hazard analysis depending on tectonic regime. The maps are accompanied by a database that describes evidence for Quaternary faulting, geomorphic expression, and paleoseismic parameters (slip rate, recurrence interval and time of most recent surface faulting). These maps and databases provide an inventory of faults that would be defined as active, capable, and potentially active for seismic-hazard assessments.

Journal of Geodynamics↗

USGS2012

Inferred depth of creep on the Hayward Fault, central California

A relation between creep rate at the surface trace of a fault, the depth to the bottom of the creeping zone, and the rate of stress accumulation on the fault is derived from Weertman's 1964 friction model of slip on a fault. A 5 ± 1 km depth for the creeping zone on the Hayward fault is estimated from the measured creep rate (5 mm/yr) at the fault trace and the rate of stress increase on the upper segment of the fault trace inferred from geodetic measurements across the San Francisco Bay area. Although fault creep partially accommodates the secular slip rate on the Hayward fault, a slip deficit is accumulating equivalent to a magnitude 6.6 earthquake on each 40 km segment of the fault each century. Thus, the current behavior of the fault is consistent with its seismic history, which includes two moderate earthquakes in the mid-1800's.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS1998

Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows: A comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state failure

Stress shadows generated by California's two most recent great earthquakes (1857 Fort Tejon and 1906 San Francisco) substantially modified 19th and 20th century earthquake history in the Los Angeles basin and in the San Francisco Bay area. Simple Coulomb failure calculations, which assume that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, have done quite well at approximating how long the stress shadows, or relaxing effects, should last and at predicting where subsequent large earthquakes will not occur. There has, however, been at least one apparent exception to the predictions of such simple models. The 1911 M >6.0 earthquake near Morgan Hill, California, occurred at a relaxed site on the Calaveras fault. We examine how the more complex rate-and-state friction formalism based on laboratory experiments might have allowed the 1911 earthquake. Rate-and-state time-to-failure calculations are consistent with the occurrence of the 1911 event just 5 years after 1906 if the Calaveras fault was already close to failure before the effects of 1906. We also examine the likelihood that the entire 78 years of relative quiet (only four M ≥6 earthquakes) in the bay area after 1906 is consistent with rate-and-state assumptions, given that the previous 7 decades produced 18 M ≥6 earthquakes. Combinations of rate-and-state variables can be found that are consistent with this pattern of large bay area earthquakes, assuming that the rate of earthquakes in the 7 decades before 1906 would have continued had 1906 not occurred. These results demonstrate that rate-and-state offers a consistent explanation for the 78-year quiescence and the 1911 anomaly, although they do not rule out several alternate explanations.

California↗

USGS2010

Locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes in the Sierra of Ecuador (1587–1996)

The whole territory of Ecuador is exposed to seismic hazard. Great earthquakes can occur in the subduction zone (e.g. Esmeraldas, 1906, M w 8.8), whereas lower magnitude but shallower and potentially more destructive earthquakes can occur in the highlands. This study focuses on the historical crustal earthquakes of the Andean Cordillera. Several large cities are located in the Interandean Valley, among them Quito, the capital (∼2.5 millions inhabitants). A total population of ∼6 millions inhabitants currently live in the highlands, raising the seismic risk. At present, precise instrumental data for the Ecuadorian territory is not available for periods earlier than 1990 (beginning date of the revised instrumental Ecuadorian seismic catalogue); therefore historical data are of utmost importance for assessing seismic hazard. In this study, the Bakun & Wentworth method is applied in order to determine magnitudes, locations, and associated uncertainties for historical earthquakes of the Sierra over the period 1587–1976. An intensity-magnitude equation is derived from the four most reliable instrumental earthquakes ( M w between 5.3 and 7.1). Intensity data available per historical earthquake vary between 10 (Quito, 1587, Intensity ≥VI) and 117 (Riobamba, 1797, Intensity ≥III). The bootstrap resampling technique is coupled to the B&W method for deriving geographical confidence contours for the intensity centre depending on the data set of each earthquake, as well as confidence intervals for the magnitude. The extension of the area delineating the intensity centre location at the 67 per cent confidence level (±1σ) depends on the amount of intensity data, on their internal coherence, on the number of intensity degrees available, and on their spatial distribution. Special attention is dedicated to the few earthquakes described by intensities reaching IX, X and XI degrees. Twenty-five events are studied, and nineteen new epicentral locations are obtained, yielding equivalent moment magnitudes between 5.0 and 7.6. Large earthquakes seem to be related to strike slip faults between the North Andean Block and stable South America to the east, while moderate earthquakes ( M w ≤ 6) seem to be associated with to thrust faults located on the western internal slopes of the Interandean Valley.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2012

Laboratory observations of fault strength in response to changes in normal stress

Changes in fault normal stress can either inhibit or promote rupture propagation, depending on the fault geometry and on how fault shear strength varies in response to the normal stress change. A better understanding of this dependence will lead to improved earthquake simulation techniques, and ultimately, improved earthquake hazard mitigation efforts. We present the results of new laboratory experiments investigating the effects of step changes in fault normal stress on the fault shear strength during sliding, using bare Westerly granite samples, with roughened sliding surfaces, in a double direct shear apparatus. Previous experimental studies examining the shear strength following a step change in the normal stress produce contradictory results: a set of double direct shear experiments indicates that the shear strength of a fault responds immediately, and then is followed by a prolonged slip-dependent response, while a set of shock loading experiments indicates that there is no immediate component, and the response is purely gradual and slip-dependent. In our new, high-resolution experiments, we observe that the acoustic transmissivity and dilatancy of simulated faults in our tests respond immediately to changes in the normal stress, consistent with the interpretations of previous investigations, and verify an immediate increase in the area of contact between the roughened sliding surfaces as normal stress increases. However, the shear strength of the fault does not immediately increase, indicating that the new area of contact between the rough fault surfaces does not appear preloaded with any shear resistance or strength. Additional slip is required for the fault to achieve a new shear strength appropriate for its new loading conditions, consistent with previous observations made during shock loading.

Journal of Applied Mechanics↗

USGS2022

Upper-plate structure and tsunamigenic faults near the Kodiak Islands, Alaska, USA

The Kodiak Islands lie near the southern terminus of the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake rupture area and within the Kodiak subduction zone segment. Both local and trans-Pacific tsunamis were generated during this devastating megathrust event, but the local tsunami source region and the causative faults are poorly understood. We provide an updated view of the tsunami and earthquake hazard for the Kodiak Islands region through tsunami modeling and geophysical data analysis. Using seismic and bathymetric data, we characterize a regionally extensive seafloor lineament related to the Kodiak shelf fault zone, with focused uplift along a 50-km-long portion of the newly named Ugak fault as the most likely source of the local Kodiak Islands tsunami in 1964. We present evidence of Holocene motion along the Albatross Banks fault zone, but we suggest that this fault did not produce a tsunami in 1964. We relate major structural boundaries to active forearc splay faults, where tectonic uplift is collocated with gravity lineations. Differences in interseismic locking, seismicity rates, and potential field signatures argue for different stress conditions at depth near presumed segment boundaries. We find that the Kodiak segment boundaries have a clear geophysical expression and are linked to upper-plate structure and splay faulting. The tsunamigenic fault hazard is higher for the Kodiak shelf fault zone when compared to the nearby Albatross Banks fault zone, suggesting short wave travel paths and little tsunami warning time for nearby communities.

Alaska↗

USGS1997

Geophysical setting of the Wabash Valley fault system

Interpretation of existing regional magnetic and gravity data and new local high-resolution aeromagnetic data provides new insights on the tectonic history and structural development of the Wabash Valley Fault System in Illinois and Indiana. Enhancement of short-wavelength magnetic anomalies reveal numerous NW- to NNE-trending ultramafic dikes and six intrusive complexes (including those at Hicks Dome and Omaha Dome). Inversion models indicate that the interpreted dikes are narrow (≤3 m), lie at shallow depths (<200 m) and are steeply dipping. Some of the interpreted dikes closely follow mapped faults; their abundance suggests that the Wabash Valley Fault System contains many more faults than those mapped. Both the interpreted dike pattern and mapped Wabash Valley Fault System terminate near the Reelfoot-Rough Creek-Rome rift system. Based on the interpretation of both the regional magnetic and gravity data and the high-resolution magnetic data, we propose that the shallow faults and deep-seated rift structures in the Wabash Valley terminate at or near the Rough Creek-Shawneetown Fault System. The Grayville Graben (∼20 km wide, ∼700 m maximum basement relief, and <40 km long [Bear et al. , this volume]) underlying the Wabash Valley developed during rifting, perhaps in response to stress concentrations generated by a bend in the Reelfoot-Rough Creek-Rome rift system. We therefore hypothesize that although the Reelfoot Rift and Rough Creek Graben represent tectonic intraplate structures of large areal extent (>500 km long and generally >50 km wide) and with deep basins (locally >3 km thick), the ancestral Wabash Valley faults express, in comparison, minor tectonic structures and probably do not represent a failed rift arm. There is a lack of any obvious relation between the Wabash Valley Fault System and the epicenters of historic and prehistoric earthquakes. Five prehistoric earthquakes lie conspicuously near structures associated with the Commerce geophysical lineament, a NE-trending magnetic and gravity lineament lying oblique to the Wabash Valley Fault System and possibly extending over 600 km from NE Arkansas to central Indiana.

Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, T↗

USGS2005

Loss estimates for a Puente Hills blind-thrust earthquake in Los Angeles, California

Based on OpenSHA and HAZUS-MH, we present loss estimates for an earthquake rupture on the recently identified Puente Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles. Given a range of possible magnitudes and ground motion models, and presuming a full fault rupture, we estimate the total economic loss to be between $82 and $252 billion. This range is not only considerably higher than a previous estimate of $69 billion, but also implies the event would be the costliest disaster in U.S. history. The analysis has also provided the following predictions: 3,000-18,000 fatalities, 142,000-735,000 displaced households, 42,000-211,000 in need of short-term public shelter, and 30,000-99,000 tons of debris generated. Finally, we show that the choice of ground motion model can be more influential than the earthquake magnitude, and that reducing this epistemic uncertainty (e.g., via model improvement and/or rejection) could reduce the uncertainty of the loss estimates by up to a factor of two. We note that a full Puente Hills fault rupture is a rare event (once every ???3,000 years), and that other seismic sources pose significant risk as well. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS1996

Database of potential sources for earthquakes larger than magnitude 6 in Northern California

The Northern California Earthquake Potential (NCEP) working group, composed of many contributors and reviewers in industry, academia and government, has pooled its collective expertise and knowledge of regional tectonics to identify potential sources of large earthquakes in northern California. We have created a map and database of active faults, both surficial and buried, that forms the basis for the northern California portion of the national map of probabilistic seismic hazard. The database contains 62 potential sources, including fault segments and areally distributed zones. The working group has integrated constraints from broadly based plate tectonic and VLBI models with local geologic slip rates, geodetic strain rate, and microseismicity. Our earthquake source database derives from a scientific consensus that accounts for conflict in the diverse data. Our preliminary product, as described in this report brings to light many gaps in the data, including a need for better information on the proportion of deformation in fault systems that is aseismic.

California↗

USGS2017

Oklahoma experiences largest earthquake during ongoing regional wastewater injection hazard mitigation efforts

The 3 September 2016, M w 5.8 Pawnee earthquake was the largest recorded earthquake in the state of Oklahoma. Seismic and geodetic observations of the Pawnee sequence, including precise hypocenter locations and moment tensor modeling, shows that the Pawnee earthquake occurred on a previously unknown left-lateral strike-slip basement fault that intersects the mapped right-lateral Labette fault zone. The Pawnee earthquake is part of an unprecedented increase in the earthquake rate in Oklahoma that is largely considered the result of the deep injection of waste fluids from oil and gas production. If this is, indeed, the case for the M 5.8 Pawnee earthquake, then this would be the largest event to have been induced by fluid injection. Since 2015, Oklahoma has undergone wide-scale mitigation efforts primarily aimed at reducing injection volumes. Thus far in 2016, the rate of M 3 and greater earthquakes has decreased as compared to 2015, while the cumulative moment—or energy released from earthquakes—has increased. This highlights the difficulty in earthquake hazard mitigation efforts given the poorly understood long-term diffusive effects of wastewater injection and their connection to seismicity.

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