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Faults & earthquakes

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At least 1,135 records · Page 63Linked to original sources

USGS2009

Map of the Rinconada and Reliz Fault Zones, Salinas River Valley, California

The Rinconada Fault and its related faults constitute a major structural element of the Salinas River valley, which is known regionally, and referred to herein, as the 'Salinas Valley'. The Rinconada Fault extends 230 km from King City in the north to the Big Pine Fault in the south. At the south end of the map area near Santa Margarita, the Rinconada Fault separates granitic and metamorphic crystalline rocks of the Salinian Block to the northeast from the subduction-zone assemblage of the Franciscan Complex to the southwest. Northwestward, the Rinconada Fault lies entirely within the Salinian Block and generally divides this region into two physiographically and structurally distinct areas, the Santa Lucia Range to the west and the Salinas Valley to the east. The Reliz Fault, which continues as a right stepover from the Rinconada Fault, trends northwestward along the northeastern base of the Sierra de Salinas of the Santa Lucia Range and beyond for 60 km to the vicinity of Spreckels, where it is largely concealed. Aeromagnetic data suggest that the Reliz Fault continues northwestward another 25 km into Monterey Bay, where it aligns with a high-definition magnetic boundary. Geomorphic evidence of late Quaternary movement along the Rinconada and Reliz Fault Zones has been documented by Tinsley (1975), Dibblee (1976, 1979), Hart (1976, 1985), and Klaus (1999). Although definitive geologic evidence of Holocene surface rupture has not been found on these faults, they were regarded as an earthquake source for the California Geological Survey [formerly, California Division of Mines and Geology]/U.S. Geological Survey (CGS/USGS) Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Assessment because of their postulated slip rate of 1+-1 mm/yr and their calculated maximum magnitude of 7.3. Except for published reports by Durham (1965, 1974), Dibblee (1976), and Hart (1976), most information on these faults is unpublished or is contained in theses, field trip guides, and other types of reports. Therefore, the main purpose of this project is to compile and synthesize this body of knowledge into a comprehensive report for the geologic community. This report follows the format of Dibblee (1976) and includes discussions of the sections of the Rinconada Fault and of the Reliz Fault, as well as their Neogene history and key localities. Accompanying this report is a geologic map database of the faults, key localities, and earthquake epicenters, in ESRI shapefile format.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS1979

Seismic gaps and source zones of recent large earthquakes in coastal Peru

The earthquakes of central coastal Peru occur principally in two distinct zones of shallow earthquake activity that are inland of and parallel to the axis of the Peru Trench. The interface-thrust (IT) zone includes the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 17 October 1966 and 3 October 1974. The coastal-plate interior (CPI) zone includes the great earthquake of 31 May 1970, and is located about 50 km inland of and 30 km deeper than the interface thrust zone. The occurrence of a large earthquake in one zone may not relieve elastic strain in the adjoining zone, thus complicating the application of the seismic gap concept to central coastal Peru. However, recognition of two seismic zones may facilitate detection of seismicity precursory to a large earthquake in a given zone; removal of probable CPI-zone earthquakes from plots of seismicity prior to the 1974 main shock dramatically emphasizes the high seismic activity near the rupture zone of that earthquake in the five years preceding the main shock. Other conclusions on the seismicity of coastal Peru that affect the application of the seismic gap concept to this region are: (1) Aftershocks of the great earthquakes of 1966, 1970, and 1974 occurred in spatially separated clusters. Some clusters may represent distinct small source regions triggered by the main shock rather than delimiting the total extent of main-shock rupture. The uncertainty in the interpretation of aftershock clusters results in corresponding uncertainties in estimates of stress drop and estimates of the dimensions of the seismic gap that has been filled by a major earthquake. (2) Aftershocks of the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 1966 and 1974 generally did not extend seaward as far as the Peru Trench. (3) None of the three great earthquakes produced significant teleseismic activity in the following month in the source regions of the other two earthquakes. The earthquake hypocenters that form the basis of this study were relocated using station adjustments computed by the method of joint hypocenter determination. ?? 1979 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗

USGS2019

Ten-million years of activity within the Eastern California Shear Zone from U-Pb dating of fault-zone opal

Reconstructions of long-term fault activity are essential for understanding both the mechanisms controlling fault behavior and accurate earthquake hazard assessments. Increasing evidence for temporal variations in strain accumulation suggests non-uniform strain rates over a range of historic to geologic timescales. The paucity of long-term records of fault activity has limited our ability to resolve these variations. We present a method for constraining long-term fault activity based on U-Pb dating of fault-related opal from secondary fault segments within the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ). The presence of sheared and breccia-cemented opaline silica within well-exposed faults at near-surface conditions suggest that opal formation is associated with high-magnitude earthquakes capable of surface rupture (>6 M). Temporal constraints from sheared syntectonic opal (n=74) on related secondary faults from this study provide new insights on the timing of fault initiation, reactivation, and longevity. The oldest dates obtained indicate that ECSZ activity commenced at or before 10 Ma. Multiple deformation events dated within a single structure on episodically deposited and sheared opal (up to six generations), demonstrate that fault reactivation occurred over 105 year timescales (0.7-0.1 Ma). Relative probabilities of dated deformation events can be used to evaluate changes in fault activity in the past 2.5 Ma (n=60). This analysis indicates enhanced fault activity starting at 2 Ma and peaking around 1 Ma, possibly due to fault-interactions and distribution of deformation between the ECSZ and the San Andreas Fault.

California↗

USGS2016

Induced earthquake magnitudes are as large as (statistically) expected

A major question for the hazard posed by injection-induced seismicity is how large induced earthquakes can be. Are their maximum magnitudes determined by injection parameters or by tectonics? Deterministic limits on induced earthquake magnitudes have been proposed based on the size of the reservoir or the volume of fluid injected. However, if induced earthquakes occur on tectonic faults oriented favorably with respect to the tectonic stress field, then they may be limited only by the regional tectonics and connectivity of the fault network. In this study, we show that the largest magnitudes observed at fluid injection sites are consistent with the sampling statistics of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution for tectonic earthquakes, assuming no upper magnitude bound. The data pass three specific tests: (1) the largest observed earthquake at each site scales with the log of the total number of induced earthquakes, (2) the order of occurrence of the largest event is random within the induced sequence, and (3) the injected volume controls the total number of earthquakes rather than the total seismic moment. All three tests point to an injection control on earthquake nucleation but a tectonic control on earthquake magnitude. Given that the largest observed earthquakes are exactly as large as expected from the sampling statistics, we should not conclude that these are the largest earthquakes possible. Instead, the results imply that induced earthquake magnitudes should be treated with the same maximum magnitude bound that is currently used to treat seismic hazard from tectonic earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1997

Geodetic measurements of horizontal strain near the White Wolf fault, Kern County, California, 1926-1993

The White Wolf fault, located north of the Big Bend segment of the San Andreas fault, is the NE‐SW trending, left lateral‐oblique reverse fault responsible for the M s =7.8 1952 Kern County earthquake. We combined Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements with historical triangulation and trilateration data to determine changes in the strain rate over 7 decades (1926–1993). We reanalyzed the historical geodetic data and calculated an elevated preseismic (1926–1952) maximum shear strain rate of 0.62±0.16 μstrain/yr across the White Wolf fault. The maximum shear strain rate decreased with distance toward the Garlock fault to 0.09±0.08 μstrain/yr. In the decade following the earthquake (1952–1963), the near fault was high (0.85±0.23μstrain/yr), and decreased to 0.23±0.13 μstrain/yr across the Garlock fault. In 1993, we resurveyed many of the same monuments with GPS receivers to estimate fault‐crossing and off‐fault strain rates for the preceding 30 years. Across the White Wolf fault, the maximum shear strain rate dropped to 0.19±0.07 μstrain/yr. The azimuths of the maximum principal strain rates (ϕ) for the 1963–1993 epoch rotate from a fault normal orientation (−57°±15°) across the White Wolf fault to 11°±3°E across the Garlock fault.

California↗

USGS2012

Heat flow and energetics of the San Andreas fault zone

Approximately 100 heat flow measurements in the San Andreas fault zone indicate (1) there is no evidence for local factional heating of the main fault trace at any latitude over a 1000-km length from Cape Mendocino to San Bernardino, (2) average heat flow is high (∼2 HFU, ∼80 mW m −2 ) throughout the 550-km segment of the Coast Ranges that encloses the San Andreas fault zone in central California; this broad anomaly falls off rapidly toward the Great Valley to the east, and over a 200-km distance toward the Mendocino Triple Junction to the northwest. As others have pointed out, a local conductive heat flow anomaly would be detectable unless the frictional resistance allocated to heat production on the main trace were ≲100 bars. Frictional work allocated to surface energy of new fractures is probably unimportant, and hydrologic convection is not likely to invalidate the conduction assumption, since the heat discharge by thermal springs near the fault is negligible. Explanations for the low dynamic friction fall into two intergradational classes: those in which the fault is weak all of the time and those in which it is weak only during earthquakes (possibly just large ones). The first class includes faults containing anomalously weak gouge materials and faults containing materials with normal frictional properties under near-lithostatic steady state fluid pressures. In the second class, weakening is caused by the event (for example, a thermally induced increase in fluid pressure, dehydration of clay minerals, or acoustic fluidization). In this class, unlike the first, the average strength and ambient tectonic shear stress may be large, ∼1 kbar, but the stress allocated to elastic radiation (the apparent stress) must be of similar magnitude, an apparent contradiction with seismic estimates. Unless seismic radiation is underestimated for large earthquakes, it is difficult to justify average tectonic stresses on the main trace of the San Andreas fault in excess of ∼200 bars. The development of the broad Coast Range heat flow anomaly southward from Cape Mendocino suggests that heat flow increases by a factor of 2 within 4 m.y. after the passage of the Mendocino Triple Junction. This passage leaves the San Andreas transform fault zone in its wake; the depth of the anomalous sources cannot be much greater than the depth of the seismogenic layer. Some of the anomalous heat may be supplied by conduction from the warmer mantle that must occur south of the Mendocino transform (where there is no subducting slab), and some might be supplied by shear heating in the fault zone. With no contribution from shear heating, extreme mantle upwelling would be required, and asthenosphere conditions should exist today at depths of only ∼20 km in the northernmost Coast Ranges. If there is an appreciable contribution from shear heating, the heat flow constraint implies that the seismogenic layer is partially decoupled at its base and that the basal traction is in the sense that resists right lateral motion on the fault(s). As a result of these basal tractions, the average shearing stress in the seismogenic layer would increase with distance from the main fault, and the seismogenic layer would offer substantial resistance to plate motion even though resistance on the main fault might be negligible. These speculative models have testable consequences.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2009

Saddle Mountain fault deformation zone, Olympic Peninsula, Washington: Western boundary of the Seattle uplift

The Saddle Mountain fault, first recognized in the early 1970s, is now well mapped in the Hoodsport area, southeastern Olympic Peninsula (northwestern United States), on the basis of light detection and ranging (LIDAR) surveys, aerial photography, and trench excavations. Drowned trees and trench excavations demonstrate that the Saddle Mountain fault produced a M W 6.5–7.0 earthquake 1000–1300 yr ago, likely contemporaneous with the M W 7.5 Seattle fault earthquake 1100 yr ago and with a variety of other fault and landslide activity over a wide region of the Olympic Peninsula and Puget Lowland. This near synchroneity suggests that the Saddle Mountain and Seattle fault may be kinematically linked. Aeromagnetic anomalies and LIDAR topographic scarps define an en echelon sequence of faults along the southeastern Olympic Peninsula of Washington, all active in Holocene time. A detailed analysis of aeromagnetic data suggests that the Saddle Mountain fault extends at least 35 km, from 6 km southwest of Lake Cushman northward to the latitude of the Seattle fault. A magnetic survey over Price Lake using a nonmagnetic canoe illuminated two east-dipping reverse faults with 20 m of vertical offset at 30 m depth associated with 2–4 m of vertical displacement at the topographic surface. Analysis of regional aeromagnetic data indicates that the Seattle fault may extend westward across Hood Canal and into the Olympic Mountains, where it terminates near the northward terminus of the Saddle Mountain fault. The en echelon alignment of the Saddle Mountain and nearby Frigid Creek and Canyon River faults, all active in late Holocene time, reflects a >45-km-long zone of deformation that may accommodate the northward shortening of Puget Lowland crust inboard of the Olympic massif. In this view, the Seattle fault and Saddle Mountain deformation zone form the boundaries of the northward-advancing Seattle uplift.

Washington↗

USGS2001

Seismic hazard in Hawaii: High rate of large earthquakes and probabilistics ground-motion maps

The seismic hazard and earthquake occurrence rates in Hawaii are locally as high as that near the most hazardous faults elsewhere in the United States. We have generated maps of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) (at 0.2, 0.3 and 1.0 sec, 5% critical damping) at 2% and 10% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The highest hazard is on the south side of Hawaii Island, as indicated by the MI 7.0, MS 7.2, and MI 7.9 earthquakes, which occurred there since 1868. Probabilistic values of horizontal PGA (2% in 50 years) on Hawaii's south coast exceed 1.75g. Because some large earthquake aftershock zones and the geometry of flank blocks slipping on subhorizontal decollement faults are known, we use a combination of spatially uniform sources in active flank blocks and smoothed seismicity in other areas to model seismicity. Rates of earthquakes are derived from magnitude distributions of the modem (1959-1997) catalog of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's seismic network supplemented by the historic (1868-1959) catalog. Modern magnitudes are ML measured on a Wood-Anderson seismograph or MS. Historic magnitudes may add ML measured on a Milne-Shaw or Bosch-Omori seismograph or MI derived from calibrated areas of MM intensities. Active flank areas, which by far account for the highest hazard, are characterized by distributions with b slopes of about 1.0 below M 5.0 and about 0.6 above M 5.0. The kinked distribution means that large earthquake rates would be grossly under-estimated by extrapolating small earthquake rates, and that longer catalogs are essential for estimating or verifying the rates of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes thus follow a semicharacteristic model, which is a combination of background seismicity and an excess number of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes are geometrically confined to rupture zones on the volcano flanks by barriers such as rift zones and the seaward edge of the volcano, which may be expressed by a magnitude distribution similar to that including characteristic earthquakes. The island chain northwest of Hawaii Island is seismically and volcanically much less active. We model its seismic hazard with a combination of a linearly decaying ramp fit to the cataloged seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity with a smoothing half-width of 10 km. We use a combination of up to four attenuation relations for each map because for either PGA or SA, there is no single relation that represents ground motion for all distance and magnitude ranges. Great slumps and landslides visible on the ocean floor correspond to catastrophes with effective energy magnitudes ME above 8.0. A crude estimate of their frequency suggests that the probabilistic earthquake hazard is at least an order of magnitude higher for flank earthquakes than that from submarine slumps.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2008

Near-surface location, geometry, and velocities of the Santa Monica Fault Zone, Los Angeles, California

High-resolution seismic-reflection and seismic-refraction imaging, combined with existing borehole, earthquake, and paleoseismic trenching data, suggest that the Santa Monica fault zone in Los Angeles consists of multiple strands from several kilometers depth to the near surface. We interpret our seismic data as showing two shallow-depth low-angle fault strands and multiple near-vertical (???85??) faults in the upper 100 m. One of the low-angle faults dips northward at about 28?? and approaches the surface at the base of a topographic scarp on the grounds of the Wadsworth VA Hospital (WVAH). The other principal low-angle fault dips northward at about 20?? and projects toward the surface about 200 m south of the topographic scarp, near the northernmost areas of the Los Angeles Basin that experienced strong shaking during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. The 20?? north-dipping low-angle fault is also apparent on a previously published seismic-reflection image by Pratt et al. (1998) and appears to extend northward to at least Wilshire Boulevard, where the fault may be about 450 m below the surface. Slip rates determined at the WVAH site could be significantly underestimated if it is assumed that slip occurs only on a single strand of the Santa Monica fault or if it is assumed that the near-surface faults dip at angles greater than 20-28??. At the WVAH, tomographic velocity modeling shows a significant decrease in velocity across near-surface strands of the Santa Monica fault. P-wave velocities range from about 500 m/sec at the surface to about 4500 m/sec within the upper 50 m on the north side of the fault zone at WVAH, but maximum measured velocities on the south side of the low-angle fault zone at WVAH are about 3500 m/sec. These refraction velocities compare favorably with velocities measured in nearby boreholes by Gibbs et al. (2000). This study illustrates the utility of com- bined seismic-reflection and seismic-refraction methods, which allow more accurate reflection imaging and compositional estimations across areas with highly variable velocities, a property that is characteristic of most fault zones.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

Structure and seismic hazard of the Ventura Avenue anticline and Ventura fault, California: Prospect for large, multisegment ruptures in the Western Transverse Ranges

The Ventura Avenue anticline is one of the fastest uplifting structures in southern California, rising at ∼5 mm/yr. We use well data and seismic reflection profiles to show that the anticline is underlain by the Ventura fault, which extends to seismogenic depth. Fault offset increases with depth, implying that the Ventura Avenue anticline is a fault‐propagation fold. A decrease in the uplift rate since ∼30±10 ka is consistent with the Ventura fault breaking through to the surface at that time and implies that the fault has a recent dip‐slip rate of ∼4.4–6.9 mm/yr. To the west, the Ventura fault and fold trend continues offshore as the Pitas Point fault and its associated hanging wall anticline. The Ventura–Pitas Point fault appears to flatten at about 7.5 km depth to a detachment, called the Sisar decollement, then step down on a blind thrust fault to the north. Other regional faults, including the San Cayetano and Red Mountain faults, link with this system at depth. We suggest that below 7.5 km, these faults may form a nearly continuous surface, posing the threat of large, multisegment earthquakes. Holocene marine terraces on the Ventura Avenue anticline suggest that it grows in discrete events with 5–10 m of uplift, with the latest event having occurred ∼800 years ago ( Rockwell, 2011 ). Uplift this large would require large earthquakes ( M w 7.7–8.1) involving the entire Ventura/Pitas Point system and possibly more structures along strike, such as the San Cayetano fault. Because of the local geography and geology, such events would be associated with significant ground shaking amplification and regional tsunamis.

California↗

USGS2018

Review: Past and future fault rupture lengths in seismic source characterization—The long and short of it

The potential rupture length of an active fault is primary input, and an uncertainty, in source characterization for seismic hazard analysis. The past several decades have seen source models in which faults are divided into potential rupture segments based on fault‐specific behavioral and geometric observations. These models (prescribed segmentation) produced single and multisegment ruptures for use in earthquake probability and regional ground‐motion estimates. The 2013 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), relaxed segmentation through modeling of fault‐to‐fault jumps that result in ruptures along the San Andreas fault system as long as 1200 km. Principle controls of UCERF3 rupture length are the stepover distance between different faults or fault sections, and their orientation relative to modeled coulomb stress changes. Observations of surface faulting worldwide since the mid‐1800s in shallow continental crust show that only 30 of the reported ruptures, about 12% of the reported examples, have been longer than 100 km; only 6 have been longer than 300 km and none has exceeded 500 km. A review of characteristics of long ruptures shows that, in general, they occur along essentially continuous traces with limited stepping or branching from one fault to another as opposed to rupture propagation on linkages of different faults with highly variable physical characteristics. These commonly occupy from 10% to 70% of the total host fault length. Neither segmented nor relaxed models of rupture length have been tested by the occurrence of actual ruptures. There is no reason why segmentation models incorporating timing, dynamic, and rheological factors cannot provide reasonable approximations of future rupture length. For many faults of concern worldwide, this may be the most effective approach.

California↗

USGS2022

The Geodetic Centroid (gCent) Catalog: Global earthquake monitoring with satellite imaging geodesy

Remote sensing geodetic observations (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar [InSAR] and optical correlation [“pixel tracking”]) serve an increasingly diverse and important role in earthquake monitoring and response. This study introduces the Geodetic Centroid (gCent) catalog—an earthquake catalog derived solely from space‐based geodetic observations—and analysis of 74 earthquakes ( ⁠ M W 4.3–7.4) imaged from 1 August 2019 to 01 February 2022. For gCent, we use InSAR and optical correlation observations derived from the Sentinel‐1 satellites and various publicly available optical satellites to systematically image all global earthquakes M W 5.5 or larger and shallower than 25 km, M W 7.0 or larger at any depth, and other high‐impact earthquakes or seismic events of special interest. We invert surface displacements from successfully imaged earthquakes for the location, orientation, and dimensions of a single slipping fault patch that describes the centroid characteristics of the earthquake. These centroid models, in turn, are compiled into a catalog and used in U.S. Geological Survey/Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) operational earthquake response products such as ShakeMaps and finite‐fault models. We provide a comparison of the gCent catalog to the ANSS Comprehensive Catalog and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (Global CMT) catalog to compare reported locations, depths, and magnitudes. We find that global earthquake catalogs not only generally provide reasonably comparable locations (within 10 km on average), but also they systematically overestimate depth that may have implications for earthquake shaking predictions based solely on earthquake origin information. Geodetic magnitudes are comparable to seismically inferred magnitudes, indicating that gCent models are unlikely to be systematically biased by the presence of postseismic deformation. We additionally highlight limitations of the gCent catalog induced by both the limitations of remote sensing imaging of earthquakes and our imposition of a simplified earthquake source description that does not include spatially distributed slip.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1985

Quaternary tectonic setting of the 1983 Borah Peak earthquake, central Idaho

The 1983 Borah Peak earthquake was accompanied by extensive surface faulting along a part of the Lost River fault that has abundant evidence of latest Quaternary (last 15,000 yr) offset. This fault and two similar range-front normal faults along the Lemhi Range and Beaverhead Mountains lie in an area of basin-and-range structure in central Idaho that is part of a roughly V-shaped belt of latest Quaternary surface faulting that extends from the Wasatch fault, through the Yellowstone area, to the Lost River fault. The position of this belt may be related to the outward migration of a thermal front associated with the northeastward progression of late Cenozoic silicic volcanism along the Yellowstone-Snake River Plain axis. The central segments of the Lost River, Lemhi, and Beaverhead faults have been active more recently, and probably more active throughout Quaternary time, than the southern and northern segments. The main 1983 surface faulting occurred in an area of high structural relief along a central segment of the Lost River fault that has ruptured in latest Quaternary time, which suggests that comparable areas along other range fronts in the area should be regarded as likely sites of future surface faulting. Other perspective of fault behavior suggest additional possible sites, and all segments of the range-front faults are regarded as capable of surface faulting.

Idaho↗

USGS2008

The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario— A story that southern Californians are writing

The question is not if but when southern California will be hit by a major earthquake - one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region. How severe the changes will be depends on the actions that individuals, schools, businesses, organizations, communities, and governments take to get ready. To help prepare for this event, scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have changed the way that earthquake scenarios are done, uniting a multidisciplinary team that spans an unprecedented number of specialties. The team includes the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and nearly 200 other partners in government, academia, emergency response, and industry, working to understand the long-term impacts of an enormous earthquake on the complicated social and economic interactions that sustain southern California society. This project, the ShakeOut Scenario, has applied the best current scientific understanding to identify what can be done now to avoid an earthquake catastrophe. More information on the science behind this project will be available in The ShakeOut Scenario (USGS Open-File Report 2008-1150; http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/). The 'what if?' earthquake modeled in the ShakeOut Scenario is a magnitude 7.8 on the southern San Andreas Fault. Geologists selected the details of this hypothetical earthquake by considering the amount of stored strain on that part of the fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture. From this, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking that would occur in this earthquake. Engineers and other professionals used the shaking to produce a realistic picture of this earthquake's damage to buildings, roads, pipelines, and other infrastructure. From these damages, social scientists projected casualties, emergency response, and the impact of the scenario earthquake on southern California's economy and society. The earthquake, its damages, and resulting losses are one realistic outcome, deliberately not a worst-case scenario, rather one worth preparing for and mitigating against. Decades of improving the life-safety requirements in building codes have greatly reduced the risk of death in earthquakes, yet southern California's economic and social systems are still vulnerable to large-scale disruptions. Because of this, the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake would dramatically alter the nature of the southern California community. Fortunately, steps can be taken now that can change that outcome and repay any costs many times over. The ShakeOut Scenario is the first public product of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, created to show how hazards science can increase a community's resiliency to natural disasters through improved planning, mitigation, and response.

California↗

USGS2012

Deep-Sea Turbidites as Guides to Holocene Earthquake History at the Cascadia Subduction Zone—Alternative Views for a Seismic-Hazard Workshop

This report reviews the geological basis for some recent estimates of earthquake hazards in the Cascadia region between southern British Columbia and northern California. The largest earthquakes to which the region is prone are in the range of magnitude 8-9. The source of these great earthquakes is the fault down which the oceanic Juan de Fuca Plate is being subducted or thrust beneath the North American Plate. Geologic evidence for their occurrence includes sedimentary deposits that have been observed in cores from deep-sea channels and fans. Earthquakes can initiate subaqueous slumps or slides that generate turbidity currents and which produce the sedimentary deposits known as turbidites. The hazard estimates reviewed in this report are derived mainly from deep-sea turbidites that have been interpreted as proxy records of great Cascadia earthquakes. The estimates were first published in 2008. Most of the evidence for them is contained in a monograph now in press. We have reviewed a small part of this evidence, chiefly from Cascadia Channel and its tributaries, all of which head offshore the Pacific coast of Washington State. According to the recent estimates, the Cascadia plate boundary ruptured along its full length in 19 or 20 earthquakes of magnitude 9 in the past 10,000 years; its northern third broke during these giant earthquakes only, and southern segments produced at least 20 additional, lesser earthquakes of Holocene age. The turbidite case for full-length ruptures depends on stratigraphic evidence for simultaneous shaking at the heads of multiple submarine canyons. The simultaneity has been inferred primarily from turbidite counts above a stratigraphic datum, sandy beds likened to strong-motion records, and radiocarbon ages adjusted for turbidity-current erosion. In alternatives proposed here, this turbidite evidence for simultaneous shaking is less sensitive to earthquake size and frequency than previously thought. Turbidites far below a channel confluence, instead of representing the merged flows from two tributaries, monitor the dominant tributary only. Sandy beds low in the turbidites, instead of matching from channel to channel, permit divergent stratigraphic correlations; and rather than approximating strong-motion seismograms, the sandy beds more likely record processes internal to the generation and transformation of subaqueous mass movements. The age adjustments, instead of supporting other evidence that all the northern ruptures were long, are uncertain enough to accord with variation in rupture mode, and this variation improves agreement with onshore paleoseismology. Many of the turbidites counted as evidence for frequent earthquakes on the southern Cascadia plate boundary may instead reflect nearness to steep slopes. This report is meant to aid in the updating of national maps of seismic hazards in Canada and the United States. It offers three main conclusions for consideration at a U.S. hazard-map workshop slated for March 21-22, 2012: If giant earthquakes are the norm for the plate boundary offshore southern Washington, the strongest paleoseismic evidence for this rupture mode is the average earthquake-recurrence interval of about 500 years that is evidenced both offshore in lower Cascadia Channel and onshore at estuaries of southern Washington and northernmost Oregon. The plate boundary offshore southern British Columbia and northern Washington may be capable of producing great earthquakes at an average interval as short as 300 years that is evidenced mainly onshore. Review of more of the turbidite evidence now in press may clarify implications for the hazard maps. Further work on the deep-sea turbidites could target sedimentary processes and chronological uncertainties that may affect the turbidites' sensitivity to fault-rupture lengths and recurrence rates.

Washington;Oregon;California↗

USGS2014

Latest Quaternary paleoseismology and evidence of distributed dextral shear along the Mohawk Valley fault zone, northern Walker Lane, California

The dextral-slip Mohawk Valley fault zone (MVFZ) strikes northwestward along the eastern margin of the Sierra Nevada in the northern Walker Lane. Geodetic block modeling indicates that the MVFZ may accommodate ~3 mm/yr of regional dextral strain, implying that it is the highest slip-rate strike-slip fault in the region; however, only limited geologic data are available to constrain the system’s slip rate and earthquake history. We mapped the MVFZ using airborne lidar data and field observations and identified a site near Sulphur Creek for paleoseismic investigation. At this site, oblique dextral-normal faulting on the steep valley margin has created a closed depression that floods annually during spring snowmelt to form an ephemeral pond. We excavated three fault-perpendicular trenches at the site and exposed pond sediment that interfingers with multiple colluvial packages eroded from the scarp that bounds the eastern side of the pond. We documented evidence for four surface-rupturing earthquakes on this strand of the MVFZ. OxCal modeling of radiocarbon and luminescence ages indicates that these earthquakes occurred at 14.0 ka, 12.8 ka, 5.7 ka, and 1.9 ka. The mean ~4 kyr recurrence interval is inconsistent with slip rates of ~3 mm/yr; these rates imply surface ruptures of more than 10 m per event, which is geologically implausible for the subdued geomorphic expression and 60 km length of the MVFZ. We propose that unidentified structures not yet incorporated into geodetic models may accommodate significant dextral shear across the northern Walker Lane, highlighting the role of distributed deformation in this region.

California↗

USGS2017

Holocene relative sea level changes along the Seattle Fault at Restoration Point, Washington

At a marsh on the hanging wall of the Seattle fault, fossil brackish water diatom and plant seed assemblages show that the marsh lay near sea level between ∼7500 and 1000 cal yr B.P. This marsh is uniquely situated for recording environmental changes associated with past earthquakes on the Seattle fault. Since 7500 cal yr B.P., changes in fossil diatoms and seeds record several rapid environmental changes. In the earliest of these, brackish conditions changed to freshwater ∼6900 cal yr B.P., possibly because of coseismic uplift or beach berm accretion. If coseismic uplift produced the freshening ∼6900 cal yr B.P., that uplift probably did not exceed 2 m. During another event about 1700 cal yr B.P., brackish plant and diatom assemblages changed rapidly to a tidal flat assemblage because of either tectonic subsidence or berm erosion. The site then remained a tideflat until the most recent event, when an abrupt shift from tideflat diatoms to freshwater taxa resulted from ∼7 m of uplift during an earthquake on the Seattle fault ∼1000 cal yr B.P. Regardless of the earlier events, no Seattle fault earthquake similar to the one ∼1000 cal yr B.P. occurred at any other time in the past 7500 years.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS1994

Thermoluminescence dating of Australian palaeo-earthquakes

Thermoluminescence (TL) dating is a useful tool for determining the age of prehistoric earthquakes by dating deposits that are stratigraphically related to fault scarps that formed during the earthquakes. TL dating of aeolian sand in the area of the 1988 Tennant Creek, Northern Territory, earthquakes provides evidence that similar earthquakes have not ruptured the causative faults for at least 50 ka. Pilot TL measurements of deposits associated with the Roopena and Ash Ridge fault scarps near Whyalla on Eyre Peninsula, South Australia, suggest an age of 140 ka for the Quaternary deposits associated with the formation of the scarps.

Eyre Peninsula↗