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Faults & earthquakes

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USGS2021

The Alaska convergent margin backstop splay fault zone, a potential large tsunami generator between the frontal prism and continental framework

The giant tsunami that swept the Pacific from Alaska to Antarctica in 1946 was generated along one of three Alaska Trench instrumentally recorded aftershock areas following great and giant earthquakes. Aftershock areas were investigated during the past decade with multibeam bathymetry, ocean bottom seismograph wide‐angle seismic, reprocessed legacy, and new seismic reflection images. Summarized and updated here are previous papers and additional data. Tectonic structures collocated with aftershock area boundaries indicate possible lengths of rupture in future great earthquakes. NE aftershock area boundaries relate to subducted lower plate structures whereas the SW zone upper plate retains Beringian structural relicts. The lower to middle slope transition separating a stronger continental framework rock from a weaker accreted prism occurs along splay fault zones previously interpreted as backstops in seismic images. Damage zones along splay faults are generally 1‐km‐wide dipping typically 21°. Splays form slip paths from the plate interface to the seafloor much shorter than the 3–4° dipping plate interface beneath the frontal prism. Associated seafloor vent structures indicate overpressured fluids at depth. Splay fault dip and its rigid hanging wall impart greater seafloor uplift than the accreted prism per unit of slip making them effective tsunami generators. Backstop splay fault zones (BSFZs) run along the entire Alaska Trench. Beneath the frontal prism, active bend faults add rugosity to the plate interface and km high relief is commonly imaged in reprocessed legacy and new seismic data. The 1946 Unimak great (M8.6) earthquake epicenter is located near the BSFZ.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

LiDAR and paleoseismology solve earthquake mystery in the Pacific Northwest, USA

One of the largest historical earthquakes in the U.S. Pacific Northwest occurred on December 15, 1872 near the south end of Lake Chelan. Lack of recognized surface deformation suggested that the earthquake occurred on a blind, perhaps deep, fault. New LiDAR data revealed a NW-side-up scarp along the north side of Spencer Canyon near Entiat, Washington. Landslides triggered during the earthquake impounded small ponds in Spencer Canyon; the larger of the two landslides obliterated a portion of the scarp. Tree-ring counts show that the oldest trees on each landslide are 130 and 128 years old, and lend credence to the idea that the earthquake triggered the landslides. Trenches across the scarp exposed a NW-dipping thrust fault offsetting young soils and Mesozoic bedrock. Radiocarbon and tree ring data shows that the last fault movement was between 1856 and 1873 CE, and was most likely during the 1872 CE earthquake.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2024

GRACE and GRACE Follow-On gravity observations of intermediate-depth earthquakes contrasted with those of shallow events

Earthquakes involve mass redistribution within the solid Earth and the ocean, and as a result, perturb the Earth's gravitational field. For most of the shallow (<60 km) earthquakes with M w > 8.0, the GRACE satellite gravity measurements suggest considerable volumetric disturbance of rocks. At a spatial scale of hundreds of km, the effect of volumetric change exceeds gravity change by vertical deformation; for example, negative gravity anomalies associated with volumetric expansion are characteristic patterns after shallow thrust events. In this study, however, we report contrasting observations of gravity change from two intermediate-depth (100–150 km) earthquakes of 2016 & 2017 Mw 8.0 (two combined) Papua New Guinea thrust faulting events and 2019 Mw 8.0 Peru normal faulting and highlight the importance of compressibility in earthquake deformation. The combined 2016/17 thrust events resulted in a positive gravity anomaly of 5–6 microGal around the epicenter, while the 2019 normal faulting produced a negative gravity anomaly of 3–4 microGal. Our modeling found that these gravity changes are manifestation of vertical deformation with limited volumetric change, distinct from gravity changes after the shallow earthquakes. The stronger resistance of rocks to volume change at intermediate-depth results in largely incompressible deformation and thus in a gravity change dominated by vertical deformation. In addition, malleable rocks under high pressure and temperature at depth facilitated substantial afterslip and/or fast viscoelastic relaxation causing additional vertical deformation and gravity change equivalent to the coseismic change. For the Papua New Guinea events, this means that postseismic relaxation enhanced coseismic uplift and relative sea level decrease.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗

USGS2026

Dynamic coupling between faulting, rifting and magmatism during 2021-2025 unrest on Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland

Interactions among faulting, earthquakes, and eruptions are fundamental to plate tectonics and hazard forecasting yet rarely observed along mid-ocean ridges. On Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, seismotectonic–volcanic unrest resumed after nearly 800-year hiatus, providing an opportunity to observe these interactions during 2021–2025 activity. By integrating high-resolution seismicity, focal mechanisms, satellite geodesy, surface deformation, and eruption data, we document ∼4 m of total extension accommodated through 14 rifting episodes. The largest, in 2023, involved graben reactivation and diking, with seismic swarms and earthquake faulting that matched the surface ruptures, where strike-slip faulting preceded normal-faulting earthquakes and extension. The accrued extension was released by extension fractures triggered by magma accumulation. Long-term observations show no correlation between erupted magma volume, seismicity, and crustal extension. This highlights dynamic relation between rifting, faulting, and magmatism in transtensional settings and their implications for hazard assessment.

Reykjanes Peninsula↗

USGS1993

The depth dependence of earthquake duration and implications for rupture mechanisms

The duration of rupture is a fundamental characteristic of earthquakes, and is important for understanding the mechanics of faulting 1,2 . The complexity of the seismic source and the incoherence of the high-frequency seismic wavefield often inhibit the identification, location and timing of features in the later part of earthquake rupture. Here we sum many teleseismic records from regional seismic arrays, producing an unusually clear depiction of the earthquake source at short periods by suppressing background noise and coda generated near the receivers. The ending, as well as the beginning, of rupture is clearly identifiable for most earthquakes examined. Measurements of 130 large earthquakes show that near 100 km depth, rupture duration averages 11 s when scaled to a moment of 10 26 dyn cm; this decreases to 5.5 s at 650 km depth. Models of faulting suggest that duration should be inversely proportional to the shear-wave velocity and the cube root of stress drop. Thus, to explain the observed twofold decrease in duration with depth, stress drops would have to increase by a factor of four, as shear velocity increases with depth by only about 20%. However, observed stress drops show no strong trend with depth 3,4 , suggesting that the faulting process changes with depth.

California↗

USGS2024

Stress-driven recurrence and precursory moment-rate surge in caldera collapse earthquakes

Predicting the recurrence times of earthquakes and understanding the physical processes that immediately precede them are two outstanding problems in seismology. Although geodetic measurements record elastic strain accumulation, most faults have recurrence intervals longer than available measurements. Foreshocks provide the principal observations of processes before mainshocks, but variability between sequences limits generalizations of pre-failure behaviour. Here we analyse seismicity and deformation data for highly characteristic caldera collapse earthquakes from 2018 Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaii, USA), with a mean recurrence interval of 1.4 days. These events provide a unique test of stress-induced earthquake recurrence and document processes preceding mainshocks with magnitude greater than five. We show that recurrence intervals are well predicted by stress histories inferred from near-field deformation measurements and that cycle-averaged seismicity reveals a critical phase, minutes before mainshocks, where earthquakes grew larger and seismic moment rate surged dramatically. The average moment rate in the final 15 minutes (0.7% of the mean cycle duration) was 4.75 times the background, a highly significant change. We infer that as the average stress increased, ruptures were more likely to overcome geometric barriers and grow larger, leading to characteristic, whole-fault ruptures. These findings imply that stress heterogeneity influences both earthquake nucleation and growth, including on potentially hazardous tectonic faults.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2020

Aseismic transient slip on the Gofar transform fault, East Pacific Rise

Oceanic transform faults display a unique combination of seismic and aseismic slip behavior, including a large globally averaged seismic deficit, and the local occurrence of repeating magnitude (M) ∼ 6 "> ∼ 6 ∼6 earthquakes with abundant foreshocks and seismic swarms, as on the Gofar transform of the East Pacific Rise and the Blanco Ridge in the northeast Pacific Ocean. However, the underlying mechanisms that govern the partitioning between seismic and aseismic slip and their interaction remain unclear. Here we present a numerical modeling study of earthquake sequences and aseismic transient slip on oceanic transform faults. In the model, strong dilatancy strengthening, supported by seismic imaging that indicates enhanced fluid-filled porosity and possible hydrothermal circulation down to the brittle–ductile transition, effectively stabilizes along-strike seismic rupture propagation and results in rupture barriers where aseismic transients arise episodically. The modeled slow slip migrates along the barrier zones at speeds ∼10 to 600 m/h, spatiotemporally correlated with the observed migration of seismic swarms on the Gofar transform. Our model thus suggests the possible prevalence of episodic aseismic transients in M ∼ 6 "> ∼ 6 ∼6 rupture barrier zones that host active swarms on oceanic transform faults and provides candidates for future seafloor geodesy experiments to verify the relation between aseismic fault slip, earthquake swarms, and fault zone hydromechanical properties.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2023

A multifault earthquake threat for the Seattle metropolitan region revealed by mass tree mortality

Compound earthquakes involving simultaneous ruptures along multiple faults often define a region’s upper threshold of maximum magnitude. Yet, the potential for linked faulting remains poorly understood given the infrequency of these events in the historic era. Geological records provide longer perspectives, although temporal uncertainties are too broad to clearly pinpoint single multifault events. Here, we use dendrochronological dating and a cosmogenic radiation pulse to constrain the death dates of earthquake-killed trees along two adjacent fault zones near Seattle, Washington to within a 6-month period between the 923 and 924 CE growing seasons. Our narrow constraints conclusively show linked rupturing that occurred either as a single composite earthquake of estimated magnitude 7.8 or as a closely spaced double earthquake sequence with estimated magnitudes of 7.5 and 7.3. These scenarios, which are not recognized in current hazard models, increase the maximum earthquake size needed for seismic preparedness and engineering design within the Puget Sound region of >4 million residents.

Washington↗

USGS1990

Surface displacements in the 1906 San Francisco and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes

The horizontal displacements accompanying the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are computed from geodetic survey measurements. The 1906 earthquake displacement field is entirely consistent with right-lateral strike slip on the San Andreas fault. In contrast, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake exhibited subequal components of strike slip and reverse faulting. This result, together with other seismic and geologic data, may indicate that the two earthquakes occurred on two different fault planes.

California↗

USGS2013

Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of Cascadia megathrust earthquake scenarios at Bandon, Oregon, USA

Characterizations of tsunami hazards along the Cascadia subduction zone hinge on uncertainties in megathrust rupture models used for simulating tsunami inundation. To explore these uncertainties, we constructed 15 megathrust earthquake scenarios using rupture models that supply the initial conditions for tsunami simulations at Bandon, Oregon. Tsunami inundation varies with the amount and distribution of fault slip assigned to rupture models, including models where slip is partitioned to a splay fault in the accretionary wedge and models that vary the updip limit of slip on a buried fault. Constraints on fault slip come from onshore and offshore paleoseismological evidence. We rank each rupture model using a logic tree that evaluates a model’s consistency with geological and geophysical data. The scenarios provide inputs to a hydrodynamic model, SELFE, used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation on unstructured grids with <5–15 m resolution in coastal areas. Tsunami simulations delineate the likelihood that Cascadia tsunamis will exceed mapped inundation lines. Maximum wave elevations at the shoreline varied from ∼4 m to 25 m for earthquakes with 9–44 m slip and Mw 8.7–9.2. Simulated tsunami inundation agrees with sparse deposits left by the A.D. 1700 and older tsunamis. Tsunami simulations for large (22–30 m slip) and medium (14–19 m slip) splay fault scenarios encompass 80%–95% of all inundation scenarios and provide reasonable guidelines for land-use planning and coastal development. The maximum tsunami inundation simulated for the greatest splay fault scenario (36–44 m slip) can help to guide development of local tsunami evacuation zones.

Oregon↗

USGS2008

Tectonic position and geological manifestations of the Mogod (Central Mongolia), January 5, 1967, earthquake (a view after 40 years)

The earthquake source, reaching the surface in the form of an extended system of faults, encompassed the N-S and NW-SE planes of two large faults near their juncture zone. A revised seismotectonic study of the system of coseismic ruptures performed after many years revealed a complex structure of primary coseismic ruptures in the juncture area of fault branches of different directions. In addition to the two major faults, the juncture zone consists of intersecting or parallel branches of both structural directions. The trench study and detailed mapping of the shallow structure of the seismic rupture characterizes it as a right-lateral-thrust fault on the N-S branch and a strike-slip-reverse fault on the NW-SE branch. Results of our paleoseismogeological study indicate that equally strong earthquakes are likely to have occurred in the same seismic source in the past (about 8000 and 160 years ago). ?? Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2008.

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth↗

USGS2002

Evidence for two surface ruptures in the past 500 years on the San Andreas fault at Frazier Mountain, California

We conducted paleoseismic studies in a closed depression along the San Andreas fault on the north flank of Frazier Mountain near Frazier Park, California. We recognized two earthquake ruptures in our trench exposure and interpreted the most recent rupture, event 1, to represent the historical 1857 earthquake. We also exposed evidence of an earlier surface rupture, event 2, along an older group of faults that did not rerupture during event 1. Radiocarbon dating of the stratigraphy above and below the earlier event constrains its probable age to between A.D. 1460 and 1600. Because we documented continuous, unfaulted stratigraphy between the earlier event horizon and the youngest event horizon in the portion of the fault zone exposed, we infer event 2 to be the penultimate event. We observed no direct evidence of an 1812 earthquake in our exposures. However, we cannot preclude the presence of this event at our site due to limited age control in the upper part of the section and the possibility of other fault strands beyond the limits of our exposures. Based on overlapping age ranges, event 2 at Frazier Mountain may correlate with event B at the Bidart fan site in the Carrizo Plain to the northwest and events V and W4 at Pallett Creek and Wrightwood, respectively, to the southeast. If the events recognized at these multiple sites resulted from the same surface rupture, then it appears that the San Andreas fault has repeatedly failed in large ruptures similar in extent to 1857.

California↗

USGS2004

Chimney damage in the greater Seattle area from the Nisqually earthquake of 28 February 2001

Unreinforced brick chimneys in the greater Seattle area were damaged repeatedly in the Benioff zone earthquakes of 1949, 1965, and 2001. A survey of visible chimney damage after the 28 February 2001 Nisqually earthquake evaluated approximately 60,000 chimneys through block-by-block coverage of about 50 km2, identifying a total of 1556 damaged chimneys. Chimney damage was strongly clustered in certain areas, in particular in the neighborhood of West Seattle where prior damage was also noted and evaluated after the 1965 earthquake. Our results showed that damage produced by the 2001 earthquake did not obviously correspond to distance from the earthquake epicenter, soft soils, topography, or slope orientation. Chimney damage correlates well to instrumented strong-motion measurements and compiled resident-reported ground-shaking intensities, but it offers much finer spatial resolution than these other data sources. In general, most areas of greatest chimney damage coincide with best estimated locations of strands of the Seattle fault zone. The edge of that zone also coincides with areas where chimney damage dropped abruptly over only one or two blocks' distance. The association between shaking intensity and fault-zone structure suggests that abrupt changes in the depth to bedrock, edge effects at the margin of the Seattle basin, or localized trapping of seismic waves in the Seattle fault zone may be significant contributory factors in the distribution of chimney damage.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2004

Comparing the November 2002 Denali and November 2001 Kunlun earthquakes

Major strike-slip earthquakes recently occurred in Alaska on the central Denali fault (M 7.9) on 3 November 2002, and in Tibet on the central Kunlun fault (M 7.8) on 14 November 2001. Both earthquakes generated large surface waves with Ms [U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)] of 8.5 (Denali) and 8.0 (Kunlun). Each event occurred on an east-west-trending strike-slip fault situated near the northern boundary of an intense deformation zone that is characterized by lateral extrusion and rotation of crustal blocks. Each earthquake produced east-directed nearly unilateral ruptures that propagated 300 to 400 km. Maximum lateral surface offsets and maximum moment release occurred well beyond 100 km from the rupture initiation, with the events exhibiting by far the largest separations of USGS hypocenter and Harvard Moment Tensor Centroid (CMT) for strike-slip earthquakes in the 27-year CMT catalog. In each sequence, the largest aftershock was more than two orders of magnitude smaller than the mainshock. Regional moment release had been accelerating prior to the main shocks. The close proximity in space and time of the 1964 Prince William Sound and 2002 Denali earthquakes, relative to their rupture lengths and estimated return times, suggests that these events may be part of a recurrent cluster in the vicinity of a complex plate boundary.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

LiDAR and field observations of slip distribution for the most recent surface ruptures along the central San Jacinto fault

We measured offsets on tectonically displaced geomorphic features along 80 km of the Clark strand of the San Jacinto fault (SJF) to estimate slip‐per‐event for the past several surface ruptures. We identify 168 offset features from which we make over 490 measurements using B4 light detection and ranging (LiDAR) imagery and field observations. Our results suggest that LiDAR technology is an exemplary supplement to traditional field methods in slip‐per‐event studies. Displacement estimates indicate that the most recent surface‐rupturing event (MRE) produced an average of 2.5–2.9 m of right‐lateral slip with maximum slip of nearly 4 m at Anza, a M w 7.2–7.5 earthquake. Average multiple‐event offsets for the same 80 kms are &sim;5.5  m, with maximum values of 3 m at Anza for the penultimate event. Cumulative displacements of 9–10 m through Anza suggest the third event was also similar in size. Paleoseismic work at Hog Lake dates the most recent surface rupture event at ca. 1790. A poorly located, large earthquake occurred in southern California on 22 November 1800; we relocate this event to the Clark fault based on the MRE at Hog Lake. We also recognize the occurrence of a younger rupture along &sim;15–20  km of the fault in Blackburn Canyon with &sim;1.25  m of average displacement. We attribute these offsets to the 21 April 1918 M w 6.9 event. These data argue that much or all of the Clark fault, and possibly also the Casa Loma fault, fail together in large earthquakes, but that shorter sections may fail in smaller events.

California↗

USGS2013

Rupture history of the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake: Evaluation of separate and joint inversions of geodetic, teleseismic, and strong-motion data

An extensive data set of teleseismic and strong-motion waveforms and geodetic offsets is used to study the rupture history of the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. A linear multiple-time-window approach is used to parameterize the rupture. Because of the complexity of the Wenchuan faulting, three separate planes are used to represent the rupturing surfaces. This earthquake clearly demonstrates the strengths and limitations of geodetic, teleseismic, and strong-motion data sets. Geodetic data (static offsets) are valuable for determining the distribution of shallower slip but are insensitive to deeper faulting and reveal nothing about the timing of slip. Teleseismic data in the distance range 30°–90° generally involve no modeling difficulties because of simple ray paths and can distinguish shallow from deep slip. Teleseismic data, however, cannot distinguish between different slip scenarios when multiple fault planes are involved because steep takeoff angles lead to ambiguity in timing. Local strong-motion data, on the other hand, are ideal for determining the direction of rupture from directivity but can easily be over modeled with inaccurate Green’s functions, leading to misinterpretation of the slip distribution. We show that all three data sets are required to give an accurate description of the Wenchuan rupture. The moment is estimated to be approximately 1.0 × 10 21 N · m with the slip characterized by multiple large patches with slips up to 10 m. Rupture initiates on the southern end of the Pengguan fault and proceeds unilaterally to the northeast. Upon reaching the cross-cutting Xiaoyudong fault, rupture of the adjacent Beichuan fault starts at this juncture and proceeds bilaterally to the northeast and southwest.

Wenchuan↗

USGS2017

Influence of lithostatic stress on earthquake stress drops in North America

We estimate stress drops for earthquakes in and near the continental United States using the method of spectral ratios. The ratio of acceleration spectra between collocated earthquakes recorded at a given station removes the effects of path and recording site and yields source parameters including corner frequency for, and the ratio of seismic moment between, the two earthquakes. We determine stress drop from these parameters for 1121 earthquakes greater than M ∼3 in 60 earthquake clusters. We find that the average Brune stress drop for the few eastern United States (EUS) tectonic mainshocks studied (2.6–36 MPa) is about three times greater than that of tectonic mainshocks in the western United States (WUS, 1.0–7.9 MPa) and five times greater than mainshocks potentially induced by wastewater injection in the central United States (CUS, 0.6–5.6 MPa). EUS events tend to be deeper thrusting events, whereas WUS events tend to be shallower but have a wide range of focal mechanisms. CUS events tend to be shallow with strike‐slip to normal‐faulting mechanisms. With the possible exception of CUS aftershocks, we find that differences in stress drop among all events can be taken into account, within one standard deviation of significance, by differences in the shear failure stress as outlined by Mohr–Coulomb theory. The shear failure stress is a function of vertical stress (or depth), the fault style (normal, strike slip, or reverse), and coefficient of friction (estimated here to be, on average, 0.64). After accounting for faulting style and depth dependence, we find that the average Brune stress drop is about 3% of the failure stress. These results suggest that high‐frequency shaking hazard (>∼1 Hz) from shallow induced events and aftershocks is reduced to some extent by lower stress drop. However, the shallow hypocenters will increase hazard within several kilometers of the source.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2019

Where was the 31 October 1895, Charleston, Missouri Earthquake?

We revisit the magnitude and location of the 31 October 1895 Charleston, Missouri earthquake, which is widely regarded to be the last M W 6 or greater earthquake in the central United States. Although a recent study (Bakun et al., 2003) concluded that this earthquake was located in southern Illinois, over 100 km north of the traditionally inferred location near Charleston, Missouri, our analysis of exhaustively compiled macroseismic data supports the traditionally inferred location, with a preferred magnitude of M W ≈ 5.8, and preferred range of 5.4 to 6.1. Our preferred magnitude is derived from comparisons with intensity distributions from the 1925 M W = 6.2 Charlevoix, the 1944 M W = 5.8 Massena, and the 1968 M W = 5.3 southern Illinois earthquakes, which we also revisited in this study. Based on the distribution of liquefaction, reports of damage, and early aftershocks, we also explore possible rupture scenarios for the 1895 earthquake. Our preferred scenario involves unilateral rupture to the northeast on a (reactivated) northeast-striking fault (or faults) coinciding with structures associated with the western limb of the Reelfoot Rift, with an epicenter south-southeast of Charleston, Missouri. Our results support the conclusion that, within the Reelfoot Rift, elevated seismic hazard is not restricted to the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) as conventionally defined but continues into the Charleston region in southeastern Missouri where faults associated with the western edge of the Reelfoot Rift appear favorably oriented for failure in the current stress regime.

Missouri↗