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Evaluating spatial and temporal relationships between an earthquake cluster near Entiat, central Washington, and the large December 1872 Entiat earthquake

We investigate spatial and temporal relations between an ongoing and prolific seismicity cluster in central Washington, near Entiat, and the 14 December 1872 Entiat earthquake, the largest historic crustal earthquake in Washington. A fault scarp produced by the 1872 earthquake lies within the Entiat cluster; the locations and areas of both the cluster and the estimated 1872 rupture surface are comparable. Seismic intensities and the 1–2 m of coseismic displacement suggest a magnitude range between 6.5 and 7.0 for the 1872 earthquake. Aftershock forecast models for (1) the first several hours following the 1872 earthquake, (2) the largest felt earthquakes from 1900 to 1974, and (3) the seismicity within the Entiat cluster from 1976 through 2016 are also consistent with this magnitude range. Based on this aftershock modeling, most of the current seismicity in the Entiat cluster could represent aftershocks of the 1872 earthquake. Other earthquakes, especially those with long recurrence intervals, have long‐lived aftershock sequences, including the M w "> M w Mw 7.5 1891 Nobi earthquake in Japan, with aftershocks continuing 100 yrs after the mainshock. Although we do not rule out ongoing tectonic deformation in this region, a long‐lived aftershock sequence can account for these observations.

Washington↗

Fault-zone guided waves from explosions in the San Andreas fault at Parkfield and Cienega Valley, California

Fault-zone guided waves were successfully excited by near-surface explosions in the San Andreas fault zone both at Parkfield and Cienega Valley, central California. The guided waves were observed on linear, three-component seismic arrays deployed across the fault trace. These waves were not excited by explosions located outside the fault zone. The amplitude spectra of guided waves show a maximum peak at 2 Hz at Parkfield and 3 Hz at Cienega Valley. The guided wave amplitude decays sharply with observation distance from the fault trace. The explosion-excited fault-zone guided waves are similar to those generated by earthquakes at Parkfield but have lower frequencies and travel more slowly. These observations suggest that the fault-zone wave guide has lower seismic velocities as it approaches the surface at Parkfield. We have modeled the waveforms as S waves trapped in a low-velocity wave guide sandwiched between high-velocity wall rocks, resulting in Love-type fault-zone guided waves. While the results are nonunique, the Parkfield data are adequately fit by a shallow wave guide 170 m wide with an S velocity 0.85 km/sec and an apparent Q ∼ 30 to 40. At Cienega Valley, the fault-zone wave guide appears to be about 120 m wide with an S velocity 0.7 km/sec and a Q ∼ 30.

California↗

Radon anomalies on three kinds of faults in California

Radon emanation is known to be anomalously high along active faults in many parts of the world. We tested this relationship in California during July and early August 1992, using a portable radonmeter to conduct soil-air radon surveys at 5 sites across three kinds of faults: Creeping, locked, and freshly broken. Along a 350-m long survey line across a creeping segment of the San Andreas fault at Nyland Ranch in San Juan Bautista, we found anomalous radon concentrations not in the creep zone itself as determined by a creepmeter, but on the adjacent sides, 10 and 30 meters from the center line of the fault. The anomalous values were 5 times higher than the background values measured farther away from the fault. A similar radon anomaly was observed along a 420-m long survey line across a creeping segment of the Calaveras fault near 7th Street in Hollister. There, the anomalous values were about 6 to 11 times the background values and about 40 and 50 m from the center line of the fault. The double-peaked featire of the anomalies may be indicative of a relatively low gas permeability of the fault-gouge materials in the creeping zones and high permeability of fractured rocks in the adjacent shear zones. Along a 144-m survey line across the currently locked segment of the San Andreas fault at the Earthquake Trail near Olema, the radon concentration was indeed anomalously high in the fault zone, by a factor of two above background values. However, the maximum values (3 to 6 times background) again were recorded about 10 meters from the center line. Three weeks after the magnitude 7.5 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992, we conducted a survey along a 300-m line across the earthquake fault alongside Encantado Road in the epicenter area. The radon values measured at the two main fault breaks were an order of magnitude higher than the background values. A similar result was found along a 420-m line alongside Reche Road about 1.7 km south of Encantado Road. ?? 1993 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗

Northward migration of the Oregon forearc on the Gales Creek fault

The Gales Creek fault (GCF) is a 60-km-long, northwest-striking dextral fault system (west of Portland, Oregon) that accommodates northward motion and uplift of the Oregon Coast Range. New geologic mapping and geophysical models confirm inferred offsets from earlier geophysical surveys and document ∼12 km of right-lateral offset of a basement high in Eocene Siletz River Volcanics since ca. 35 Ma and ∼8.8 km of right-lateral separation of Miocene Columbia River Basalt at Newberg, Oregon, since 15 Ma (∼0.62 ± 0.12 mm/yr, average long-term rate). Relative uplift of Eocene Coast Range basalt basement west of the fault zone is at least 5 km based on depth to basement under the Tualatin Basin from a recent inversion of gravity data. West of the city of Forest Grove, the fault consists of two subparallel strands ∼7 km apart. The westernmost, Parsons Creek strand, forms a linear valley southward to Henry Hagg Lake, where it continues southward to Newberg as a series of en echelon strands forming both extensional and compressive step-overs. Compressive step-overs in the GCF occur at intersections with ESE-striking sinistral faults crossing the Coast Range, suggesting the GCF is the eastern boundary of an R′ Riedel shear domain that could accommodate up to half of the ∼45° of post–40 Ma clockwise rotation of the Coast Range documented by paleomagnetic studies. Gravity and magnetic anomalies suggest the western strands of the GCF extend southward beneath Newberg into the Northern Willamette Valley, where colinear magnetic anomalies have been correlated with the Mount Angel fault, the proposed source of the 1993 M 5.7 Scotts Mills earthquake. The potential-field data and water-well data also indicate the eastern, Gales Creek strand of the fault may link to the NNW-striking Canby fault through the E-W Beaverton fault to form a 30-km-wide compressive step-over along the south side of the Tualatin Basin. LiDAR data reveal right-lateral stream offsets of as much as 1.5 km, shutter ridges, and other youthful geomorphic features for 60 km along the geophysical and geologic trace of the GCF north of Newberg, Oregon. Paleoseismic trenches document Eocene bedrock thrust over 250 ka surficial deposits along a reverse splay of the fault system near Yamhill, Oregon, and Holocene motion has been recently documented on the GCF along Scoggins Creek and Parsons Creek. The GCF could produce earthquakes in excess of Mw 7, if the entire 60 km segment ruptured in one earthquake. The apparent subsurface links of the GCF to other faults in the Northern Willamette Valley suggest that other faults in the system may also be active.

Oregon↗

“Aftershock Faults” and what they could mean for seismic hazard assessment

We study stress‐loading mechanisms for the California faults used in rupture forecasts. Stress accumulation drives earthquakes, and that accumulation mechanism governs recurrence. Most moment release in California occurs because of relative motion between the Pacific plate and the Sierra Nevada block; we calculate relative motion directions at fault centers and compare with fault displacement directions. Dot products between these vectors reveal that some displacement directions are poorly aligned with plate motions. We displace a 3D finite‐element model according to relative motions and resolve stress tensors onto defined fault surfaces, which reveal that poorly aligned faults receive no tectonic loading. Because these faults are known to be active, we search for other loading mechanisms. We find that nearly all faults with no tectonic loading show increase in stress caused by slip on the San Andreas fault, according to an elastic dislocation model. Globally, faults that receive a sudden stress change respond with triggered earthquakes that obey an Omori law rate decay with time. We therefore term this class of faults as “aftershock faults.” These faults release ∼4% of the moment release in California, have ∼0.1%–5% probability of M 6.7 earthquakes in 30 yr, and have a 0.001%–1% 30 yr M 7.7 probability range.

California↗

A-priori rupture models for Northern California Type-A faults

This appendix describes how a-priori rupture models were developed for the northern California Type-A faults. As described in the main body of this report, and in Appendix G, “a-priori” models represent an initial estimate of the rate of single and multi-segment surface ruptures on each fault. Whether or not a given model is moment balanced (i.e., satisfies section slip-rate data) depends on assumptions made regarding the average slip on each segment in each rupture (which in turn depends on the chosen magnitude-area relationship). Therefore, for a given set of assumptions, or branch on the logic tree, the methodology of the present Working Group (WGCEP-2007) is to find a final model that is as close as possible to the a-priori model, in the least squares sense, but that also satisfies slip rate and perhaps other data. This is analogous the WGCEP- 2002 approach of effectively voting on the relative rate of each possible rupture, and then finding the closest moment-balance model (under a more limiting set of assumptions than adopted by the present WGCEP, as described in detail in Appendix G). The 2002 Working Group Report (WCCEP, 2003, referred to here as WGCEP-2002), created segmented earthquake rupture forecast models for all faults in the region, including some that had been designated as Type B faults in the NSHMP, 1996, and one that had not previously been considered. The 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps used the values from WGCEP-2002 for all the faults in the region, essentially treating all the listed faults as Type A faults. As discussed in Appendix A, the current WGCEP found that there are a number of faults with little or no data on slip-per-event, or dates of previous earthquakes. As a result, the WGCEP recommends that faults with minimal available earthquake recurrence data: the Greenville, Mount Diablo, San Gregorio, Monte Vista-Shannon and Concord-Green Valley be modeled as Type B faults to be consistent with similarly poorly-known faults statewide. As a result, the modified segmented models discussed here only concern the San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras faults.

Open-File Report↗

Imaging shear strength along subduction faults

Subduction faults accumulate stress during long periods of time and release this stress suddenly, during earthquakes, when it reaches a threshold. This threshold, the shear strength, controls the occurrence and magnitude of earthquakes. We consider a 3-D model to derive an analytical expression for how the shear strength depends on the fault geometry, the convergence obliquity, frictional properties, and the stress field orientation. We then use estimates of these different parameters in Japan to infer the distribution of shear strength along a subduction fault. We show that the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku earthquake ruptured a fault portion characterized by unusually small variations in static shear strength. This observation is consistent with the hypothesis that large earthquakes preferentially rupture regions with relatively homogeneous shear strength. With increasing constraints on the different parameters at play, our approach could, in the future, help identify favorable locations for large earthquakes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Rupture distribution of the 1977 western Argentina earthquake

Teleseismic P and SH body waves are used in a finite-fault, waveform inversion for the rupture history of the 23 November 1977 western Argentina earthquake. This double event consists of a smaller foreshock (M0 = 5.3 ?? 1026 dyn-cm) followed about 20 s later by a larger main shock (M0 = 1.5 ?? 1027 dyn-cm). Our analysis indicates that these two events occurred on different fault segments: with the foreshock having a strike, dip, and average rake of 345??, 45??E, and 50??, and the main shock 10??, 45??E, and 80??, respectively. The foreshock initiated at a depth of 17 km and propagated updip and to the north. The main shock initiated at the southern end of the foreshock zone at a depth of 25 to 30 km, and propagated updip and unilaterally to the south. The north-south separation of the centroids of the moment release for the foreshock and main shock is about 60 km. The apparent triggering of the main shock by the foreshock is similar to other earthquakes that have involved the failure of multiple fault segments, such as the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake. Such occurrences argue against the use of individual, mapped, surface fault or fault-segment lengths in the determination of the size and frequency of future earthquakes.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors↗

Spatiotemporal evolution of a transient slip event on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California

In 1993 several baselines of the two-color electronic distance meter (EDM) network at Parkfield, California, deviated from their long-term rates, coincident with anomalous observations from nearby strain meters and a creep meter, as well as an increase in microseismicity. Between October 1992 and December 1994, three M ??? 4.5 earthquakes occurred beneath Middle Mountain, near the hypocenter of the 1934 and 1966 Parkfield M6 events. We analyzed the two-color EDM data using a Kalman-filtering based technique to image the spatiotemporal evolution of slip on the fault at Parkfield between the mid-1980s and 2003. This method accounts for localized random walk motion of the geodetic monuments and a prominent seasonal signal that affects many baselines. We find that a slip rate increase occurred between January 1993 and July 1996 on the upper 8 km of the fault near Middle Mountain. The peak estimated slip rate during this time was 49 mm/yr, which exceeds the long-term geologic rate of ???35 mm/yr. The slip rate evolution appears episodic, with an initial modest increase after the M4.3 earthquake and a much larger jump following the shallower M4.7 event in December 1994. This temporal correlation between inferred slip and seismicity suggests that the moderate earthquakes triggered the aseismic fault slip. The EDM data cannot resolve whether transient slip propagated across the nucleation zone of the 1934 and 1966 M6 Parkfield earthquakes. However, transient slip and its associated stress release in the hypocentral area of previous Parkfield events is consistent with the nucleation of the 2004 M6 Parkfield earthquake elsewhere on the fault. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

The 12 November 2017 Mw 7.3 Ezgeleh–Sarpolzahab (Iran) earthquake and active tectonics of the Lurestan arc

The 12 November 2017 M w 7.3 Ezgeleh‐Sarpolzahab earthquake is the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the Zagros Simply Folded Belt by a factor of ∼10 in seismic moment. Exploiting local, regional, and teleseismic data and synthetic aperture radar interferometry imagery, we characterize the rupture, its aftershock sequence, background seismicity, and regional tectonics. The mainshock ruptured slowly (∼2 km/s), unilaterally southward, for ∼40 km along an oblique (dextral‐thrust) fault that dips ∼14°E beneath the northwestern Lurestan arc. Slip is confined to basement depths of ∼12–18 km, resolvably beneath the sedimentary cover which is ∼8 km thick in this area. The gentle dip angle and basement location allow for a broad slip area, explaining the large magnitude relative to earthquakes in the main Fars arc of the Zagros, where shallower, steeper faults are limited in rupture extent by weak sedimentary layers. Early aftershocks concentrate around the southern and western edges of the mainshock slip area and therefore cluster in the direction of rupture propagation, implying a contribution from dynamic triggering. A cluster of events ∼100 km to the south near Mandali (Iraq) reactivated the ∼50° dipping Zagros Foredeep Fault. The basement fault responsible for the Ezgeleh‐Sarpolzahab earthquake probably accounts for the ∼1 km elevation contrast between the Lurestan arc and the Kirkuk embayment but is distinct from sections of the Mountain Front Fault that define frontal escarpments elsewhere in the Zagros. It may be related to a seismic interface underlying the central and southern Lurestan arc, and a key concern is whether or not the more extensive regional structure is also seismogenic.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗

Triggering of earthquake aftershocks by dynamic stresses

It is thought that small 'static' stress changes due to permanent fault displacement can alter the likelihood of, or trigger, earthquakes on nearby faults. Many studies of triggering in the nearfield, particularly of aftershocks, rely on these static changes as the triggering agent and consider them only in terms of equivalent changes in the applied load on the fault. Here we report a comparison of the aftershock pattern of the moment magnitude MW = 7.3 Landers earthquake, not only with static stress changes but also with transient, oscillatory stress changes transmitted as seismic waves (that is, 'dynamic' stresses). Dynamic stresses do not permanently change the applied load and thus can trigger earthquakes only by altering the mechanical state or properties of the fault zone. These dynamically weakened faults may fail after the seismic waves have passed by, and might even cause earthquakes that would not otherwise have occurred. We find similar asymmetries in the aftershock and dynamic stress patterns, the latter being due to rupture propagation, whereas the static stress changes lack this asymmetry. Previous studies have shown that dynamic stresses can promote failure at remote distances, but here we show that they can also do so nearby.

Nature↗

The 2009 Samoa-Tonga great earthquake triggered doublet

Great earthquakes (having seismic magnitudes of at least 8) usually involve abrupt sliding of rock masses at a boundary between tectonic plates. Such interplate ruptures produce dynamic and static stress changes that can activate nearby intraplate aftershocks, as is commonly observed in the trench-slope region seaward of a great subduction zone thrust event1-4. The earthquake sequence addressed here involves a rare instance in which a great trench-slope intraplate earthquake triggered extensive interplate faulting, reversing the typical pattern and broadly expanding the seismic and tsunami hazard. On 29 September 2009, within two minutes of the initiation of a normal faulting event with moment magnitude 8.1 in the outer trench-slope at the northern end of the Tonga subduction zone, two major interplate underthrusting subevents (both with moment magnitude 7.8), with total moment equal to a second great earthquake of moment magnitude 8.0, ruptured the nearby subduction zone megathrust. The collective faulting produced tsunami waves with localized regions of about 12metres run-up that claimed 192 lives in Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga. Overlap of the seismic signals obscured the fact that distinct faults separated by more than 50km had ruptured with different geometries, with the triggered thrust faulting only being revealed by detailed seismic wave analyses. Extensive interplate and intraplate aftershock activity was activated over a large region of the northern Tonga subduction zone. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature↗

High tsunami frequency as a result of combined strike-slip faulting and coastal landslides

Earthquakes on strike-slip faults can produce devastating natural hazards. However, because they consist predominantly of lateral motion, these faults are rarely associated with significant uplift or tsunami generation. And although submarine slides can generate tsunami, only a few per cent of all tsunami are believed to be triggered in this way. The 12 January Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake exhibited primarily strike-slip motion but nevertheless generated a tsunami. Here we present data from a comprehensive field survey that covered the onshore and offshore area around the epicentre to document that modest uplift together with slope failure caused tsunamigenesis. Submarine landslides caused the most severe tsunami locally. Our analysis suggests that slide-generated tsunami occur an order-of-magnitude more frequently along the Gonave microplate than global estimates predict. Uplift was generated because of the earthquake?s location, where the Caribbean and Gonave microplates collide obliquely. The earthquake also caused liquefaction at several river deltas that prograde rapidly and are prone to failure. We conclude that coastal strike-slip fault systems such as the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault produce relief conducive to rapid sedimentation, erosion and slope failure, so that even modest predominantly strike-slip earthquakes can cause potentially catastrophic slide-generated tsunamig-a risk that is underestimated at present. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature Geoscience↗

Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake

The 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake perturbed the static stress field over a large area of central California. The pattern of stress changes on major faults in the region predicted by models of the earthquake's dislocation agrees closely with changes in the regional seismicity rate after the earthquake. The agreement is best for models with low values of the coefficient of friction (0.1 ≤ μ ≤ 0.3) on Bay Area faults. Both the stress models and measurements suggest that stresses were increased on the San Andreas fault north of the Loma Prieta rupture, but decreased slightly on the Hayward fault. This relaxation does not warrant lower probability estimates for large earthquakes on the Hayward fault in the next 30 years, however.

California↗

Lateral offsets on surveyed cultural features resulting from the 1999 İzmit and Düzce earthquakes, Turkey

Surveys of offset linear cultural features that cross the surface ruptures of the 17 August and 12 November 1999 earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault in Turkey yield slip values as large as or larger than those recorded by near-field measurements in the same areas immediately after the earthquake. Using long, linear alignments of trees, fence lines, walls, and canals, we demonstrate as much as a 2-m increase in observed slip over the initial field measurements. On an average, we observed about 15% of the total lateral slip as off-fault deformation, with values ranging from 0% to 40% of the total slip. Part of this lateral deformation is accommodated by bending or drag in a zone as much as 30 m in width, although usually the zone varies between 5 and 20 m in width. This supports the idea that substantial nonbrittle, off-fault deformation is associated with ruptures in areas of alluvial fill. Alternatively, there may have been substantial afterslip, although none has been recognized on postearthquake repaired structures. Our observations suggest that postearthquake measurements of fault slip, using tape measures on offset geomorphic features, may underestimate the actual amount of slip in that event, where the nonlinearity of the offset feature does not allow recognition of the warping. Surveys of multiple tree lines within groves of poplar trees, planted in straight lines across the fault prior to the earthquake, show surprisingly large lateral variations. In one grove, slip increases by nearly 1.8 m, or 35% of the maximum measured value, over a lateral distance of nearly 100 m. This and other observations along the 1999 ruptures suggest that the lateral variability of slip observed from displaced geomorphic features in many earthquakes of the past may represent a combination of (1) actual differences in slip at the surface and (2) the difficulty in recognizing distributed nonbrittle deformation.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Geodetic constraints on the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa earthquake

On 24 August 2014, the M 6.0 South Napa earthquake shook much of the San Francisco Bay area, leading to significant damage in the Napa Valley. The earthquake occurred in the vicinity of the West Napa fault (122.313° W, 38.22° N, 11.3 km), a mapped structure located between the Rodger’s Creek and Green Valley faults, with nearly pure right‐lateral strike‐slip motion (strike 157°, dip 77°, rake –169°; http://comcat.cr.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc72282711#summary, last accessed December 2014) (Fig. 1). The West Napa fault previously experienced an M 5 strike‐slip event in 2000 but otherwise exhibited no previous definitive evidence of historic earthquake rupture ( Rodgers et al. , 2008 ; Wesling and Hanson, 2008 ). Evans et al. (2012) found slip rates of ∼9.5  mm/yr along the West Napa fault, with most slip rate models for the Bay area placing higher slip rates and greater earthquake potential on the Rodger’s Creek and Green Valley faults, respectively (e.g., Savage et al. , 1999 ; d’Alessio et al. , 2005 ; Funning et al. , 2007 ).

Seismological Research Letters↗

Foreshocks and aftershocks of the great 1857 California earthquake

The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults anywhere in the world, yet we know little about many aspects of its behavior before, during, and after large earthquakes. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1857 M 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the central and southern segments of the fault. We began by searching archived first-hand accounts from 1857 through 1862, by grouping felt reports temporally, and by assigning modified Mercalli intensities to each site. We then used a modified form of the grid-search algorithm of Bakun and Wentworth, derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes, to find the location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities for each of the largest events. The result confirms a conclusion of Sieh that at least two foreshocks (“dawn” and “sunrise”) located on or near the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault preceded the mainshock. We estimate their magnitudes to be M ≈ 6.1 and M ≈ 5.6, respectively. The aftershock rate was below average but within one standard deviation of the number of aftershocks expected based on statistics of modern southern California mainshock-aftershock sequences. The aftershocks included two significant events during the first eight days of the sequence, with magnitudes M ≈ 6.25 and M ≈ 6.7, near the southern half of the rupture; later aftershocks included a M ≈ 6 event near San Bernardino in December 1858 and a M ≈ 6.3 event near the Parkfield segment in April 1860. From earthquake logs at Fort Tejon, we conclude that the aftershock sequence lasted a minimum of 3.75 years.

California↗

High tsunami frequency as a result of combined strike-slip faulting and coastal landslides

Earthquakes on strike-slip faults can produce devastating natural hazards. However, because they consist predominantly of lateral motion, these faults are rarely associated with significant uplift or tsunami generation. And although submarine slides can generate tsunami, only a few per cent of all tsunami are believed to be triggered in this way. The 12 January M w 7.0 Haiti earthquake exhibited primarily strike-slip motion but nevertheless generated a tsunami. Here we present data from a comprehensive field survey that covered the onshore and offshore area around the epicentre to document that modest uplift together with slope failure caused tsunamigenesis. Submarine landslides caused the most severe tsunami locally. Our analysis suggests that slide-generated tsunami occur an order-of-magnitude more frequently along the Gonave microplate than global estimates predict. Uplift was generated because of the earthquake's location, where the Caribbean and Gonave microplates collide obliquely. The earthquake also caused liquefaction at several river deltas that prograde rapidly and are prone to failure. We conclude that coastal strike-slip fault systems such as the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault produce relief conducive to rapid sedimentation, erosion and slope failure, so that even modest predominantly strike-slip earthquakes can cause potentially catastrophic slide-generated tsunami - a risk that is underestimated at present.

Nature Geoscience↗