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Faults & earthquakes

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USGS2001

Surface Fractures Formed in the Potrero Canyon, Tapo Canyon, and McBean Parkway Areas in Association with the 1994 Northridge, California Earthquake

INTRODUCTION The magnitude 6.7 (M6.7) Northridge earthquake of 17 January 1994 strongly shook the Los Angeles urban region, resulting in 33 direct deaths, more than 20,000 people forced out of their homes, and an estimated $20 billion in damage (Hall, 1994). The earthquake was caused by slip on a previously unrecognized south-dipping fault buried beneath the San Fernando Valley. Slip on the fault propagated from a depth of about 19 km to about 8 km below the ground surface (USGS and SCEC, 1994). Although there was no surface faulting associated with the causative fault, surface fractures did develop along at least one fault (Mission Wells fault) and also in areas without recognized faults (Hart and others, 1995; Hecker and others, 1995a, 1995b; Rymer and others, 1995; Treiman, 1995). The term 'surface fractures' is used herein to describe ground breakage that is not associated with primary faulting or with triggered, secondary, surface faulting on a deep seismogenic fault. This report describes fault- and nonfault-related surface fractures that occurred at three sites, Potrero Canyon, Tapo Canyon, and the McBean Parkway area, 22 to 28 km north-northwest of the main shock (Fig. 1). Investigation of these sites documents far reaching effects of even moderately large earthquakes. Study of such effects has become increasingly important with further urbanization and development. Hecker and others (1995a, 1995b) documented the distribution of surface deformation associated with the Northridge earthquake in the Granada Hills area. The search for surface faulting and surface fracturing was initiated within hours of the earthquake. Both ground and airborne searches were made of the region. After fresh surface fractures were found in Potrero Canyon, aerial photographs were taken of the area (including the McBean Parkway site) by I.K. Curtis, on 21 January 1994, at scales of about 1:2,000 and 1:6,000. These aerial photographs were studied under high magnification to supplement ground-based observations of surface fractures.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗

USGS1996

Some facts about aftershocks to large earthquakes in California

Earthquakes occur in clusters. After one earthquake happens, we usually see others at nearby (or identical) locations. To talk about this phenomenon, seismologists coined three terms foreshock , mainshock , and aftershock. In any cluster of earthquakes, the one with the largest magnitude is called the mainshock; earthquakes that occur before the mainshock are called foreshocks while those that occur after the mainshock are called aftershocks. A mainshock will be redefined as a foreshock if a subsequent event in the cluster has a larger magnitude. Aftershock sequences follow predictable patterns. That is, a sequence of aftershocks follows certain global patterns as a group, but the individual earthquakes comprising the group are random and unpredictable. This relationship between the pattern of a group and the randomness (stochastic nature) of the individuals has a close parallel in actuarial statistics. We can describe the pattern that aftershock sequences tend to follow with well-constrained equations. However, we must keep in mind that the actual aftershocks are only probabilistically described by these equations. Once the parameters in these equations have been estimated, we can determine the probability of aftershocks occurring in various space, time and magnitude ranges as described below. Clustering of earthquakes usually occurs near the location of the mainshock. The stress on the mainshock's fault changes drastically during the mainshock and that fault produces most of the aftershocks. This causes a change in the regional stress, the size of which decreases rapidly with distance from the mainshock. Sometimes the change in stress caused by the mainshock is great enough to trigger aftershocks on other, nearby faults. While there is no hard "cutoff" distance beyond which an earthquake is totally incapable of triggering an aftershock, the vast majority of aftershocks are located close to the mainshock. As a rule of thumb, we consider earthquakes to be aftershocks if they are located within a characteristic distance from the mainshock. This distance is usually taken to be one or two times the length of the fault rupture associated with the mainshock. For example, if the mainshock ruptured a 100 km length of a fault, subsequent earthquakes up to 100-200 km away from the mainshock rupture would be considered aftershocks. The fault rupture length was approximately 15 km in the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and 430 km in the great 1906 earthquake.

California↗

USGS1976

Tectonic aspects of the Guatemala earthquake of 4 February 1976

The locations of surface ruptures and the main shock epicenter indicate that the disastrous Guatemala earthquake of 4 February 1976 was tectonic in origin and generated mainly by slip on the Motagua fault, which has an arcuate roughly east-west trend across central Guatemala. Fault breakage was observed for 230 km. Displacement is predominantly horizontal and sinistral with a maximum measured offset of 340 cm and an average of about 100 cm. Secondary fault breaks trending roughly north-northeast to south-southwest have been found in a zone about 20 km long and 8 km wide extending from the western suburbs of Guatemala City to near Mixco, and similar faults with more subtle surface expression probably occur elsewhere in the Guatemalan Highlands. Displacements on the secondary faults are predominantly extensional and dip-slip, with as much as 15 cm vertical offset on a single fracture. The primary fault that broke during the earthquake involved roughly 10 percent of the length of the great transform fault system that defines the boundary between the Caribbean and North American plates. The observed sinistral displacement is striking confirmation of deductions regarding the late Cenozoic relative motion between these two crustal plates that were based largely on indirect geologic and geophysical evidence. The earthquake-related secondary faulting, together with the complex pattern of geologically young normal faults that occur in the Guatemalan Highlands and elsewhere in western Central America, suggest that the eastern wedge-shaped part of the Caribbean plate, roughly between the Motagua fault system and the volcanic arc, is being pulled apart in tension and left behind as the main mass of the plate moves relatively eastward. Because of their proximity to areas of high population density, shallow-focus earthquakes that originate on the Motagua fault system, on the system of predominantly extensional faults within the western part of the Caribbean plate, and in association with volcanism may pose a more serious seismic hazard than the more numerous (but generally more distant) earthquakes that are generated in the eastward-dipping subduction zone beneath Middle America.

Science↗

USGS2002

Crustal structure and relocated earthquakes in the Puget Lowland, Washington, from high-resolution seismic tomography

The availability of regional earthquake data from the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network (PNSN), together with active source data from the Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound (SHIPS) seismic experiments, has allowed us to construct a new high-resolution 3-D, P wave velocity model of the crust to a depth of about 30 km in the central Puget Lowland. In our method, earthquake hypocenters and velocity model are jointly coupled in a fully nonlinear tomographic inversion. Active source data constrain the upper 10–15 km of the model, and earthquakes constrain the deepest portion of the model. A number of sedimentary basins are imaged, including the previously unrecognized Muckleshoot basin, and the previously incompletely defined Possession and Sequim basins. Various features of the shallow crust are imaged in detail and their structural transitions to the mid and lower crust are revealed. These include the Tacoma basin and fault zone, the Seattle basin and fault zone, the Seattle and Port Ludlow velocity highs, the Port Townsend basin, the Kingston Arch, and the Crescent basement, which is arched beneath the Lowland from its surface exposure in the eastern Olympics. Strong lateral velocity gradients, consistent with the existence of previously inferred faults, are observed, bounding the southern Port Townsend basin, the western edge of the Seattle basin beneath Dabob Bay, and portions of the Port Ludlow velocity high and the Tacoma basin. Significant velocity gradients are not observed across the southern Whidbey Island fault, the Lofall fault, or along most of the inferred location of the Hood Canal fault. Using improved earthquake locations resulting from our inversion, we determined focal mechanisms for a number of the best recorded earthquakes in the data set, revealing a complex pattern of deformation dominated by general arc-parallel regional tectonic compression. Most earthquakes occur in the basement rocks inferred to be the lower Tertiary Crescent formation. The sedimentary basins and the eastern part of the Olympic subduction complex are largely devoid of earthquakes. Clear association of hypocenters and focal mechanisms with previously mapped or proposed faults is difficult; however, seismicity, structure, and focal mechanisms associated with the Seattle fault zone suggest a possible high-angle mode of deformation with the north side up. We suggest that this deformation may be driven by isostatic readjustment of the Seattle basin.

Washington↗

USGS2012

Forecast model for moderate earthquakes near Parkfield, California

Earthquake instability models have possible application to earthquake forecasting because the models simulate both preseismic and coseismic changes of fault slip and ground deformation. In the forecast procedure proposed here, repeated measurements of preseismic fault slip and ground deformation constrain the values of model parameters. The early part of the model simulation corresponds to the available field data, and the subsequent part constitutes an estimate of future faulting and ground deformation. In particular, the time, location, and size of unstable faulting are estimates of the pending earthquake parameters. The forecast accuracy depends on the model realism and parameter resolution. The forecast procedure is applied to fault creep and trilateration data measured near Parkfield, California, where at least five magnitude 5.5 to 6 earthquakes have occurred regularly since 1881, the last in 1966. The quasi-static model consists of a flat vertical plane embedded in an elastic half space. Spacially variable fault slip of strike-slip sense is driven by an increasing regional shear stress but is impeded by a relatively strong patch of brittle, strain-softening fault. The field data are consistent with these approximate values of patch parameters: radius of 3 km, patch center 5 km deep and 8 km southeast of the 1966 epicenter, and maximum brittle strength of 26 bars. Fluctuations in the available field data prevent estimating the earthquake time with any more precision than use of the 21±8 year recurrence interval. However, the model may later give a more precise estimate of the earthquake time if the fault slip rate near the inferred patch increases before the earthquake, as predicted by the model.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2018

Intensities, aftershock sequences, and the location of the 1936 Milton‐Freewater earthquake near the Oregon–Washington border, U.S.A.

The epicenter of the 16 July 1936 M "> M M 6 Milton‐Freewater earthquake, also known as the State Line earthquake and the largest historical earthquake in northeastern Oregon or southeastern Washington, is uncertain. Various studies place the epicenter of the earthquake, which was widely felt in eastern Washington, northeastern Oregon, and northern Idaho, within 30 km of the intersection of the Hite and Wallula faults. In the absence of reported coseismic surface rupture for the earthquake, we sought to determine which epicentral location is most consistent with the intensity observations and with its aftershock sequence, which lasted for at least 27 months. An epicenter between Umapine and Milton‐Freewater best matches the observations. This location falls within the region that experienced the highest intensities of VII and reported the largest number of aftershocks, compares favorably to the (2018) International Seismological Centre‐Global Earthquake Model (ISC‐GEM) epicenter, and is proximal to sites that experienced ground failure and groundwater effects. Modeling of aftershock rates is consistent with this suggested epicenter and with the estimated 10 km long subsurface rupture of the earthquake. This suggested epicenter lies at, or just west of, the intersection of the Hite and Wallula faults. The elongation of ground failure along the Wallula fault and the aftershock distribution appears more consistent with rupture of the Wallula fault or of a subparallel fault than with rupture of the Hite fault. Rupture on faults to the north or east of the Wallula‐Hite fault intersection is inconsistent with most observations, including the perceived impulsivity of the mainshock.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2015

How to build and teach with QuakeCaster: an earthquake demonstration and exploration tool

QuakeCaster is an interactive, hands-on teaching model that simulates earthquakes and their interactions along a plate-boundary fault. QuakeCaster contains the minimum number of physical processes needed to demonstrate most observable earthquake features. A winch to steadily reel in a line simulates the steady plate tectonic motions far from the plate boundaries. A granite slider in frictional contact with a nonskid rock-like surface simulates a fault at a plate boundary. A rubber band connecting the line to the slider simulates the elastic character of the Earth’s crust. By stacking and unstacking sliders and cranking in the winch, one can see the results of changing the shear stress and the clamping stress on a fault. By placing sliders in series with rubber bands between them, one can simulate the interaction of earthquakes along a fault, such as cascading or toggling shocks. By inserting a load scale into the line, one can measure the stress acting on the fault throughout the earthquake cycle. As observed for real earthquakes, QuakeCaster events are not periodic, time-predictable, or slip-predictable. QuakeCaster produces rare but unreliable “foreshocks.” When fault gouge builds up, the friction goes to zero and fault creep is seen without large quakes. QuakeCaster events produce very small amounts of fault gouge that strongly alter its behavior, resulting in smaller, more frequent shocks as the gouge accumulates. QuakeCaster is designed so that students or audience members can operate it and record its output. With a stopwatch and ruler one can measure and plot the timing, slip distance, and force results of simulated earthquakes. People of all ages can use the QuakeCaster model to explore hypotheses about earthquake occurrence. QuakeCaster takes several days and about $500.00 in materials to build.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2009

Far field tsunami simulations of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake: Implications for tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast and the Caribbean

The great Lisbon earthquake of November 1st, 1755 with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.5-9.0 was the most destructive earthquake in European history. The associated tsunami run-up was reported to have reached 5-15??m along the Portuguese and Moroccan coasts and the run-up was significant at the Azores and Madeira Island. Run-up reports from a trans-oceanic tsunami were documented in the Caribbean, Brazil and Newfoundland (Canada). No reports were documented along the U.S. East Coast. Many attempts have been made to characterize the 1755 Lisbon earthquake source using geophysical surveys and modeling the near-field earthquake intensity and tsunami effects. Studying far field effects, as presented in this paper, is advantageous in establishing constraints on source location and strike orientation because trans-oceanic tsunamis are less influenced by near source bathymetry and are unaffected by triggered submarine landslides at the source. Source location, fault orientation and bathymetry are the main elements governing transatlantic tsunami propagation to sites along the U.S. East Coast, much more than distance from the source and continental shelf width. Results of our far and near-field tsunami simulations based on relative amplitude comparison limit the earthquake source area to a region located south of the Gorringe Bank in the center of the Horseshoe Plain. This is in contrast with previously suggested sources such as Marqu??s de Pombal Fault, and Gulf of C??diz Fault, which are farther east of the Horseshoe Plain. The earthquake was likely to be a thrust event on a fault striking ~ 345?? and dipping to the ENE as opposed to the suggested earthquake source of the Gorringe Bank Fault, which trends NE-SW. Gorringe Bank, the Madeira-Tore Rise (MTR), and the Azores appear to have acted as topographic scatterers for tsunami energy, shielding most of the U.S. East Coast from the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. Additional simulations to assess tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast from possible future earthquakes along the Azores-Iberia plate boundary indicate that sources west of the MTR and in the Gulf of Cadiz may affect the southeastern coast of the U.S. The Azores-Iberia plate boundary west of the MTR is characterized by strike-slip faults, not thrusts, but the Gulf of Cadiz may have thrust faults. Southern Florida seems to be at risk from sources located east of MTR and South of the Gorringe Bank, but it is mostly shielded by the Bahamas. Higher resolution near-shore bathymetry along the U.S. East Coast and the Caribbean as well as a detailed study of potential tsunami sources in the central west part of the Horseshoe Plain are necessary to verify our simulation results. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Marine Geology↗

USGS2011

Triggered creep as a possible mechanism for delayed dynamic triggering of tremor and earthquakes

The passage of radiating seismic waves generates transient stresses in the Earth’s crust that can trigger slip on faults far away from the original earthquake source. The triggered fault slip is detectable in the form of earthquakes and seismic tremor . However, the significance of these triggered events remains controversial , in part because they often occur with some delay, long after the triggering stress has passed. Here we scrutinize the location and timing of tremor on the San Andreas fault between 2001 and 2010 in relation to distant earthquakes. We observe tremor on the San Andreas fault that is initiated by passing seismic waves, yet migrates along the fault at a much slower velocity than the radiating seismic waves. We suggest that the migrating tremor records triggered slow slip of the San Andreas fault as a propagating creep event. We find that the triggered tremor and fault creep can be initiated by distant earthquakes as small as magnitude 5.4 and can persist for several days after the seismic waves have passed. Our observations of prolonged tremor activity provide a clear example of the delayed dynamic triggering of seismic events. Fault creep has been shown to trigger earthquakes and we therefore suggest that the dynamic triggering of prolonged fault creep could provide a mechanism for the delayed triggering of earthquakes.

California↗

USGS1989

Map showing late Quaternary faults and 1978-84 seismicity of the Los Angeles region, California

The Los Angeles region of California faces the greatest seismic risk of any part of the United States. The region is inhabited by more than 11 million people and is one of the Nation's key commercial and industrial centers. It lies astride a web of potentially active faults, including those segments of the San Andreas fault with the highest probability for generating a great earthquake during the next 30 years (Lindh, 1983; Sykes and Nishenko, 1984; Wesson and Wallace, 1985; U.S. Geological Survey, 1988). Moreover, many potentially active faults that can generate moderate-size, but damaging earthquakes lie within the metropolitan areas. Earthquakes along some of these faults—for example, a magnitude 6.5 event on the Newport-Inglewood zone—could produce losses exceeding those from a great earthquake on the more distant San Andreas fault (Evernden and Thomson, 1985). This map shows, at 1:250,000 scale, known or suspected late Quaternary faults of the Los Angeles region, the ages of their most recent surface movements, and the associated earthquake activity for a recent 7-year period (1978 through 1984). The geologic and seismologic character of these faults and their potential for generating damaging earthquakes recently were evaluated by Ziony and Yerkes (1985). The map is intended primarily to inform scientists, engineers, and planners of the distribution of those faults that may have a potential for generating damaging earthquakes and (or) displacements of the Earth's surface. The map data also should contribute to further investigations of the seismotectonic setting of the Los Angeles region. The mapped area extends from lat 33°15' N. to 34°45' N. and from long 116°45' W. to 120°00' W. This region encompasses parts of the Transverse Ranges (including the Santa Ynez, Santa Susana, Santa Monica, San Gabriel, and San Bernardino Mountains), the Los Angeles basin, part of the Mojave Desert, and segments of the Peninsular Ranges (including the Puente Hills, Santa Ana Mountains, and the northern San Jacinto Mountains). Offshore, it includes the eastern Santa Barbara Channel, several of the Channel Islands, the Santa Monica and San Pedro basins, Santa Catalina Island, and part of the Gulf of Santa Catalina. In addition to the Los Angeles metropolitan area, the cities of Santa Barbara, Ventura, Riverside, and San Bernardino are within the map area.

California↗

USGS2012

The 1992 Landers earthquake sequence; seismological observations

The ( M W 6.1, 7.3, 6.2) 1992 Landers earthquakes began on April 23 with the M W 6.1 1992 Joshua Tree preshock and form the most substantial earthquake sequence to occur in California in the last 40 years. This sequence ruptured almost 100 km of both surficial and concealed faults and caused aftershocks over an area 100 km wide by 180 km long. The faulting was predominantly strike slip and three main events in the sequence had unilateral rupture to the north away from the San Andreas fault. The M W 6.1 Joshua Tree preshock at 33°N58′ and 116°W19′ on 0451 UT April 23 was preceded by a tightly clustered foreshock sequence ( M ≤4.6) beginning 2 hours before the mainshock and followed by a large aftershock sequence with more than 6000 aftershocks. The aftershocks extended along a northerly trend from about 10 km north of the San Andreas fault, northwest of Indio, to the east-striking Pinto Mountain fault. The M w 7.3 Landers mainshock occurred at 34°N13′ and 116°W26′ at 1158 UT, June 28, 1992, and was preceded for 12 hours by 25 small M ≤3 earthquakes at the mainshock epicenter. The distribution of more than 20,000 aftershocks, analyzed in this study, and short-period focal mechanisms illuminate a complex sequence of faulting. The aftershocks extend 60 km to the north of the mainshock epicenter along a system of at least five different surficial faults, and 40 km to the south, crossing the Pinto Mountain fault through the Joshua Tree aftershock zone towards the San Andreas fault near Indio. The rupture initiated in the depth range of 3–6 km, similar to previous M ∼5 earthquakes in the region, although the maximum depth of aftershocks is about 15 km. The mainshock focal mechanism showed right-lateral strike-slip faulting with a strike of N10°W on an almost vertical fault. The rupture formed an arclike zone well defined by both surficial faulting and aftershocks, with more westerly faulting to the north. This change in strike is accomplished by jumping across dilational jogs connecting surficial faults with strikes rotated progressively to the west. A 20-km-long linear cluster of aftershocks occurred 10–20 km north of Barstow, or 30–40 km north of the end of the mainshock rupture. The most prominent off-fault aftershock cluster occurred 30 km to the west of the Landers mainshock. The largest aftershock was within this cluster, the M w 6.2 Big Bear aftershock occurring at 34°N10′ and 116°W49′ at 1505 UT June 28. It exhibited left-lateral strike-slip faulting on a northeast striking and steeply dipping plane. The Big Bear aftershocks form a linear trend extending 20 km to the northeast with a scattered distribution to the north. The Landers mainshock occurred near the southernmost extent of the Eastern California Shear Zone, an 80-km-wide, more than 400-km-long zone of deformation. This zone extends into the Death Valley region and accommodates about 10 to 20% of the plate motion between the Pacific and North American plates. The Joshua Tree preshock, its aftershocks, and Landers aftershocks form a previously missing link that connects the Eastern California Shear Zone to the southern San Andreas fault.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2025

The 1912 Ms 7.2 earthquake in the Denali region of central Alaska

The 2002 M w 7.9 earthquake in central Alaska ruptured 340 km on three faults—Susitna Glacier thrust fault, Denali fault, Totschunda fault—crossing both the Richardson Highway and the Alaska Pipeline. Its occurrence prompted renewed interest in historical large earthquakes that possibly originated on the Denali fault. One of these earthquakes was a M s 7.2 event on July 7, 1912, which we revisit with two approaches: (1) probabilistic relocation of the epicenter using globally recorded arrival times, and (2) compilation and reassessment of shaking intensity reports to estimate a macroseismic epicenter. Our preferred instrumental epicenter is west of the Parks Highway and in agreement with the maximum‐reported shaking, which was from the Parker–Browne expedition of Denali. We also relocated a M s 6.4 aftershock, whose epicenter is 11 km from the mainshock. Candidate faults for the 1912 earthquake include the Denali fault, the McLeod Creek thrust fault, and the Kantishna Hills thrust fault. Future analysis of active faults, paleoseismic results, 1912 instrumental data, and 1912 felt reports may help in interpreting the fault and mechanism of the 1912 earthquake.

Alaska↗

USGS2008

Overview of the Southern San Andreas Fault Model

This appendix summarizes the data and methodology used to generate the source model for the southern San Andreas fault. It is organized into three sections, 1) a section by section review of the geological data in the format of past Working Groups, 2) an overview of the rupture model, and 3) a manuscript by Biasi and Weldon (in review Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America) that describes the correlation methodology that was used to help develop the ?geologic insight? model. The goal of the Biasi and Weldon methodology is to quantify the insight that went into developing all A faults; as such it is in concept consistent with all other A faults but applied in a more quantitative way. The most rapidly slipping fault and the only known source of M~8 earthquakes in southern California is the San Andreas fault. As such it plays a special role in the seismic hazard of California, and has received special attention in the current Working Group. The underlying philosophy of the current Working Group is to model the recurrence behavior of large, rapidly slipping faults like the San Andreas from observed data on the size, distribution and timing of past earthquakes with as few assumptions about underlying recurrence behavior as possible. In addition, we wish to carry the uncertainties in the data and the range of reasonable extrapolations from the data to the final model. To accomplish this for the Southern San Andreas fault we have developed an objective method to combine all of the observations of size, timing, and distribution of past earthquakes into a comprehensive set of earthquake scenarios that each represent a possible history of earthquakes for the past ~1400 years. The scenarios are then ranked according to their overall consistency with the data and then the frequencies of all of the ruptures permitted by the current Working Group?s segmentation model are calculated. We also present 30-yr conditional probabilities by segment and compare to previous results. A distinctive aspect of the current model is that the probability is higher at both ends of the fault and that the ends have a much greater fraction of smaller events. There is a significant difference in the likelihood of large (M 7.7-8.0) earthquakes along the fault from north to south, with large 1857-like events common on the northern half of the southern San Andreas fault but relatively few M 7.7-8.0 expected on the southern half.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1994

Extremal bounds on earthquake movement from geodetic data: Application to the Landers earthquake

We present a technique to place quantifiable bounds on the moment of an earthquake from geodetic data, assuming known fault geometry. Application of this technique to the 1992 Landers earthquake shows that the moment must have been between 0.84 and 1.15 × 10 20 Nm with 90% confidence ( M 7.25 to 7.34). We also find that to satisfy the data to this same level of confidence, the slip on the fault must have exceeded 7 m in at least one location, in good agreement with field mapping of the surface rupture.

California↗

USGS2003

Structure and mechanics of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault step-over, San Francisco Bay, California

A dilatational step - over between the right-lateral Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults lies beneath San Pablo Bay in the San Francisco Bay area. A key seismic hazard issue is whether an earthquake on one of the faults could rupture through the step - over , enhancing its maximum possible magnitude. If ruptures are terminated at the step - over , then another important issue is how strain transfers through the step . We developed a combined seismic reflection and refraction cross section across south San Pablo Bay and found that the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults converge to within 4 km of one another near the surface, about 2 km closer than previously thought. Interpretation of potential field data from San Pablo Bay indicated a low likelihood of strike-slip transfer faults connecting the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. Numerical simulations suggest that it is possible for a rupture to jump across a 4-km fault gap, although special stressing conditions are probably required (e.g., Harris and Day, 1993, 1999). Slip on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults is building an extensional pull-apart basin that could contain hazardous normal faults. We investigated strain in the pull-apart using a finite-element model and calculated a ∼0.02-MPa/yr differential stressing rate in the step - over on a least-principal-stress orientation nearly parallel to the strike-slip faults where they overlap. A 1- to 10-MPa stress-drop extensional earthquake is expected on normal faults oriented perpendicular to the strike-slip faults every 50-500 years. The last such earthquake might have been the 1898 M 6.0-6.5 shock in San Pablo Bay that apparently produced a small tsunami. Historical hydrographic surveys gathered before and after 1898 indicate abnormal subsidence of the bay floor within the step - over , possibly related to the earthquake. We used a hydrodynamic model to show that a dip-slip mechanism in north San Pablo Bay is the most likely 1898 rupture scenario to have caused the tsunami. While we find no strike-slip transfer fault between the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults, a normal- fault link could enable through-going segmented rupture of both strike-slip faults and may pose an independent hazard of M ∼6 earthquakes like the 1898 event.

California↗

USGS2019

Neotectonic and paleoseismic analysis of the northwest extent of Holocene surface deformation along the Meers Fault, Oklahoma

TheMeers fault (Oklahoma) is one of fewseismogenic structures with evidence for Holocene surface rupture in the stable continental region of North America. The 37-kilometer-long southeast section of the full 54-kilometer-long Meers fault is interpreted to be Holocene active. The 17-kilometer-long northwest section is considered Quaternary active, but not Holocene active.We reevaluate surface expression and earthquake timing of the northwest Meers fault to improve seismic source characterization.We use airborne light detection and ranging and historical stereopaired aerial photos to evaluate the fault scarp and local faultzone geomorphology. In the northwest, complex surface deformation includes fault splays, subtle monoclinal warping, and a minor change in fault strike. We interpret that the alongstrike transition from surface faulting on the southeastMeers fault to surface folding on the northwest Meers fault occurs at the lithologic contact between Permian Post Oak conglomerate and Hennessey shale. We excavated a paleoseismic trench to evaluate the timing of surface-deforming earthquakes on the northwest section of the fault. The excavation revealed weathered Permian Hennessey shale and an ∼1–2-meter-thick veneer of Holocene alluvial deposits that were progressively deformed during two surface-folding earthquakes likely related to blind fault rupture beneath the site. Repeated onlapping to overlapping stratigraphic sequences and associated unconformities are intimately related to folding events along the monocline. OxCal paleoearthquake age modeling indicates that earthquakes occurred 4704–3109 yr B.P. and 5955–4744 yr B.P., and that part of the northwest section of the Meers fault is Holocene active. We find the Holocene-active section of the Meers fault should be lengthened 6.1 km to the northwest, to a total Holocene-active fault length of 43 km. Empirical scaling relationships between surface rupture length and magnitude reveal that the fault could generate an Mw 7.0 earthquake.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2013

Holocene tectonics and fault reactivation in the foothills of the north Cascade Mountains, Washington

We use LiDAR imagery to identify two fault scarps on latest Pleistocene glacial outwash deposits along the North Fork Nooksack River in Whatcom County, Washington (United States). Mapping and paleoseismic investigation of these previously unknown scarps provide constraints on the earthquake history and seismic hazard in the northern Puget Lowland. The Kendall scarp lies along the mapped trace of the Boulder Creek fault, a south-dipping Tertiary normal fault, and the Canyon Creek scarp lies in close proximity to the south-dipping Canyon Creek fault and the south-dipping Glacier Extensional fault. Both scarps are south-side-up, opposite the sense of displacement observed on the nearby bedrock faults. Trenches excavated across these scarps exposed folded and faulted late Quaternary glacial outwash, locally dated between ca. 12 and 13 ka, and Holocene buried soils and scarp colluvium. Reverse and oblique faulting of the soils and colluvial deposits indicates at least two late Holocene earthquakes, while folding of the glacial outwash prior to formation of the post-glacial soil suggests an earlier Holocene earthquake. Abrupt changes in bed thickness across faults in the Canyon Creek excavation suggest a lateral component of slip. Sediments in a wetland adjacent to the Kendall scarp record three pond-forming episodes during the Holocene—we infer that surface ruptures on the Boulder Creek fault during past earthquakes temporarily blocked the stream channel and created an ephemeral lake. The Boulder Creek and Canyon Creek faults formed in the early to mid-Tertiary as normal faults and likely lay dormant until reactivated as reverse faults in a new stress regime. The most recent earthquakes—each likely M w > 6.3 and dating to ca. 8050–7250 calendar years B.P. (cal yr B.P.), 3190–2980 cal. yr B.P., and 910–740 cal. yr B.P.—demonstrate that reverse faulting in the northern Puget Lowland poses a hazard to urban areas between Seattle (Washington) and Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada).

Washington↗

USGS2002

High-resolution image of Calaveras Fault seismicity

By measuring relative earthquake arrival times using waveform cross correlation and locating earthquakes using the double difference technique, we are able to reduce hypocentral errors by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude over routine locations for nearly 8000 events along a 35-km section of the Calaveras Fault. This represents ∼92% of all seismicity since 1984 and includes the rupture zone of the M 6.2 1984 Morgan Hill, California, earthquake. The relocated seismicity forms highly organized structures that were previously obscured by location errors. There are abundant repeating earthquake sequences as well as linear clusters of earthquakes. Large voids in seismicity appear with dimensions of kilometers that have been aseismic over the 30-year time interval, suggesting that these portions of the fault are either locked or creeping. The area of greatest slip in the Morgan Hill main shock coincides with the most prominent of these voids, suggesting that this part of the fault may be locked between large earthquakes. We find that the Calaveras Fault at depth is extremely thin, with an average upper bound on fault zone width of 75 m. Given the location error, however, this width is not resolvably different from zero. The relocations reveal active secondary faults, which we use to solve for the stress field in the immediate vicinity of the Calaveras Fault. We find that the maximum compressive stress is at a high angle, only 13° from the fault normal, supporting previous interpretations that this fault is weak.

California↗