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Faults & earthquakes

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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources

USGS2000

Static-stress impact of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence on nucleation and slip at the site of the 1999 M=7.1 Hector Mine earthquake, southern California

The proximity in time (∼7 years) and space (∼20 km) between the 1992 M=7.3 Landers earthquake and the 1999 M=7.1 Hector Mine event suggests a possible link between the quakes. We thus calculated the static stress changes following the 1992 Joshua Tree/Landers/Big Bear earthquake sequence on the 1999 M=7.1 Hector Mine rupture plane in southern California. Resolving the stress tensor into rake-parallel and fault-normal components and comparing with changes in the post-Landers seismicity rate allows us to estimate a coefficient of friction on the Hector Mine plane. Seismicity following the 1992 sequence increased at Hector Mine where the fault was unclamped. This increase occurred despite a calculated reduction in right-lateral shear stress. The dependence of seismicity change primarily on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction (µ≥0.8). We calculated the Coulomb stress change using µ=0.8 and found that the Hector Mine hypocenter was mildly encouraged (0.5 bars) by the 1992 earthquake sequence. In addition, the region of peak slip during the Hector Mine quake occurred where Coulomb stress is calculated to have increased by 0.5–1.5 bars. In general, slip was more limited where Coulomb stress was reduced, though there was some slip where the strongest stress decrease was calculated. Interestingly, many smaller earthquakes nucleated at or near the 1999 Hector Mine hypocenter after 1992, but only in 1999 did an event spread to become a M=7.1 earthquake.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2012

Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field

Parkfield's regularly occurring M6 mainshocks, about every 25 years, have over two decades stoked seismologists' hopes to successfully predict an earthquake of significant size. However, with the longest known inter-event time of 38 years, the latest M6 in the series (28 Sep 2004) did not conform to any of the applied forecast models, questioning once more the predictability of earthquakes in general. Our study investigates the spatial pattern of b-values along the Parkfield segment through the seismic cycle and documents a stably stressed structure. The forecasted rate of M6 earthquakes based on Parkfield's microseismicity b-values corresponds well to observed rates. We interpret the observed b-value stability in terms of the evolution of the stress field in that area: the M6 Parkfield earthquakes do not fully unload the stress on the fault, explaining why time recurrent models fail. We present the 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake as counter example, which did release a significant portion of the stress along its fault segment and yields a substantial change in b-values.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2024

Exploring the dynamic interactions between the Southern San Andreas Fault and a normal fault under the Salton Sea

We investigate the dynamic interactions between the Southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF) and a proximal normal fault (NF) beneath the Salton Sea in southern California. The NF, positioned near the SSAF terminus at Bombay Beach, exhibits 11–15 displacement events across 14 stratigraphic sequences, with a range of 0.2–1.4 m of vertical offset since ∼2–3 ka. Notably, four of these events may align temporally with SSAF earthquakes, raising questions about the possible interplay between the two faults. Utilizing dynamic rupture models, we analyze the coseismic interactions between the SSAF and NF, addressing under what conditions the SSAF induces slip on the NF. Our findings reveal that a suite of SSAF ruptures, particularly those propagating from north to south, can trigger slip on the normal fault and replicate observed vertical offsets. If the SSAF extends beneath the Salton Sea, earthquakes originating south of the NF intersection are less likely to trigger normal fault slip, although we cannot exclude this possibility. Some SSAF ruptures do not trigger discernible slip on the NF, rendering such events undetectable in the stratigraphic record. Our research contributes toward discussions regarding the seismic hazard in southern California, shedding light on the interplay between the SSAF and NF.

California↗

USGS1977

Reconnaissance engineering geology of the Metlakatla area, Annette Island, Alaska, with emphasis on evaluation of earthquakes and other geologic hazards

A program to study the engineering geology of most larger Alaska coastal communities and to evaluate their earthquake and other geologic hazards was started following the 1964 Alaska earthquake; this report about the Metlakatla area, Annette Island, is a product of that program. Field-study methods were of a reconnaissance nature, and thus the interpretations in the report are tentative. Landscape of the Metlakatla Peninsula, on which the city of Metlakatla is located, is characterized by a muskeg-covered terrane of very low relief. In contrast, most of the rest of Annette Island is composed of mountainous terrane with steep valleys and numerous lakes. During the Pleistocene Epoch the Metlakatla area was presumably covered by ice several times; glaciers smoothed the present Metlakatla Peninsula and deeply eroded valleys on the rest. of Annette Island. The last major deglaciation was completed probably before 10,000 years ago. Rebound of the earth's crust, believed to be related to glacial melting, has caused land emergence at Metlakatla of at least 50 ft (15 m) and probably more than 200 ft (61 m) relative to present sea level. Bedrock in the Metlakatla area is composed chiefly of hard metamorphic rocks: greenschist and greenstone with minor hornfels and schist. Strike and dip of beds are generally variable and minor offsets are common. Bedrock is of late Paleozoic to early Mesozoic age. Six types of surficial geologic materials of Quaternary age were recognized: firm diamicton, emerged shore, modern shore and delta, and alluvial deposits, very soft muskeg and other organic deposits, and firm to soft artificial fill. A combination map unit is composed of bedrock or diamicton. Geologic structure in southeastern Alaska is complex because, since at least early Paleozoic time, there have been several cycles of tectonic deformation that affected different parts of the region. Southeastern Alaska is transected by numerous faults and possible faults that attest to major movements of the earth's crust. The latest of the major tectonic events in the Metlakatla region occurred in middle Tertiary time; some minor fault activity probably continues today at depth. Along the outer coast of southeastern Alaska and British Columbia, major faulting activity occurs in the form of active, strike-slip movement along the Queen Charlotte fault about 100 mi (160 kin) west-southwest of Metlakatla. Some branching subsidiary faults also may be active, at least one of which may be the Sandspit fault. Many major and smaller earthquakes occur along the outer coast. These shocks are related to movements along the Queen Charlotte fault. A few small earthquakes occur in the region between the outer coast and the Coast Mountains, which includes Metlakatla. 0nly a few earthquakes have been reported as felt at Metlakatla; these shocks and others felt in the region are tabulated. Historically, the closest major earthquake was the magnitude 8.1 Queen Charlotte Islands earthquake of August 22, 1949, which occurred along the Queen Charlotte fault 125 mi (200 km) southwest of Metlakatla. No damage was reported at Metlakatla. The probability of destructive earthquakes affecting Metlakatla is unknown. A consideration of the tectonics and earthquake history of the region, however, suggests that sometime in the future an earthquake with a magnitude of about 8 will occur along that segment of the Queen Charlotte fault nearest to Metlakatla. Smaller earthquakes with magnitudes of 6 or more might occur elsewhere in the Metlakatla region or south-southeastward near Dixon Entrance or Hecate Strait. Several geologic effects that have characterized large earthquakes elsewh6re may be expected to accompany some of the possible major earthquakes that might affect the Metlakatla area in the future. Evaluation of effects indicates that fault displacement and tectonic uplift or subsidence are probably unlikely, and ground shaking in general probably would be strongest

Open-File Report↗

USGS1985

Evaluating earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles region— An earth-science perspective

Potentially destructive earthquakes are inevitable in the Los Angeles region of California, but hazards prediction can provide a basis for reducing damage and loss. This volume identifies the principal geologically controlled earthquake hazards of the region (surface faulting, strong shaking, ground failure, and tsunamis), summarizes methods for characterizing their extent and severity, and suggests opportunities for their reduction. Two systems of active faults generate earthquakes in the Los Angeles region: northwest-trending, chiefly horizontal-slip faults, such as the San Andreas, and west-trending, chiefly vertical-slip faults, such as those of the Transverse Ranges. Faults in these two systems have produced more than 40 damaging earthquakes since 1800. Ninety-five faults have slipped in late Quaternary time (approximately the past 750,000 yr) and are judged capable of generating future moderate to large earthquakes and displacing the ground surface. Average rates of late Quaternary slip or separation along these faults provide an index of their relative activity. The San Andreas and San Jacinto faults have slip rates measured in tens of millimeters per year, but most other faults have rates of about 1 mm/yr or less. Intermediate rates of as much as 6 mm/yr characterize a belt of Transverse Ranges faults that extends from near Santa Barbara to near San Bernardino. The dimensions of late Quaternary faults provide a basis for estimating the maximum sizes of likely future earthquakes in the Los Angeles region: moment magnitude .(M) 8 for the San Andreas, M 7 for the other northwest-trending elements of that fault system, and M 7.5 for the Transverse Ranges faults. Geologic and seismologic evidence along these faults, however, suggests that, for planning and designing noncritical facilities, appropriate sizes would be M 8 for the San Andreas, M 7 for the San Jacinto, M 6.5 for other northwest-trending faults, and M 6.5 to 7 for the Transverse Ranges faults. The geologic and seismologic record indicates that parts of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults have generated major earthquakes having recurrence intervals of several tens to a few hundred years. In contrast, the geologic evidence at points along other active faults suggests recurrence intervals measured in many hundreds to several thousands of years. The distribution and character of late Quaternary surface faulting permit estimation of the likely location, style, and amount of future surface displacements. An extensive body of geologic and geotechnical information is used to evaluate areal differences in future levels of shaking. Bedrock and alluvial deposits are differentiated according to the physical properties that control shaking response; maps of these properties are prepared by analyzing existing geologic and soils maps, the geomorphology of surficial units, and. geotechnical data obtained from boreholes. The shear-wave velocities of near-surface geologic units must be estimated for some methods of evaluating shaking potential. Regional-scale maps of highly generalized shearwave velocity groups, based on the age and texture of exposed geologic units and on a simple two-dimensional model of Quaternary sediment distribution, provide a first approximation of the areal variability in shaking response. More accurate depictions of near-surface shear-wave velocity useful for predicting ground-motion parameters take into account the thickness of the Quaternary deposits, vertical variations in sediment .type, and the correlation of shear-wave velocity with standard penetration resistance of different sediments. A map of the upper Santa Ana River basin showing shear-wave velocities to depths equal to one-quarter wavelength of a 1-s shear wave demonstrates the three-dimensional mapping procedure. Four methods for predicting the distribution and strength of shaking from future earthquakes are presented. These techniques use different measures of strong-motion

California↗

USGS2015

Kinematics of shallow backthrusts in the Seattle fault zone, Washington State

Near-surface thrust fault splays and antithetic backthrusts at the tips of major thrust fault systems can distribute slip across multiple shallow fault strands, complicating earthquake hazard analyses based on studies of surface faulting. The shallow expression of the fault strands forming the Seattle fault zone of Washington State shows the structural relationships and interactions between such fault strands. Paleoseismic studies document an ∼7000 yr history of earthquakes on multiple faults within the Seattle fault zone, with some backthrusts inferred to rupture in small (M ∼5.5–6.0) earthquakes at times other than during earthquakes on the main thrust faults. We interpret seismic-reflection profiles to show three main thrust faults, one of which is a blind thrust fault directly beneath downtown Seattle, and four small backthrusts within the Seattle fault zone. We then model fault slip, constrained by shallow deformation, to show that the Seattle fault forms a fault propagation fold rather than the alternatively proposed roof thrust system. Fault slip modeling shows that back-thrust ruptures driven by moderate (M ∼6.5–6.7) earthquakes on the main thrust faults are consistent with the paleoseismic data. The results indicate that paleoseismic data from the back-thrust ruptures reveal the times of moderate earthquakes on the main fault system, rather than indicating smaller (M ∼5.5–6.0) earthquakes involving only the backthrusts. Estimates of cumulative shortening during known Seattle fault zone earthquakes support the inference that the Seattle fault has been the major seismic hazard in the northern Cascadia forearc in the late Holocene.

Washington↗

USGS2014

Seismological analyses of the 2010 March 11, Pichilemu, Chile Mw 7.0 and Mw 6.9 coastal intraplate earthquakes

On 2010 March 11, a sequence of large, shallow continental crust earthquakes shook central Chile. Two normal faulting events with magnitudes around M w 7.0 and M w 6.9 occurred just 15 min apart, located near the town of Pichilemu. These kinds of large intraplate, inland crustal earthquakes are rare above the Chilean subduction zone, and it is important to better understand their relationship with the 2010 February 27, M w 8.8, Maule earthquake, which ruptured the adjacent megathrust plate boundary. We present a broad seismological analysis of these earthquakes by using both teleseismic and regional data. We compute seismic moment tensors for both events via a W-phase inversion, and test sensitivities to various inversion parameters in order to assess the stability of the solutions. The first event, at 14 hr 39 min GMT, is well constrained, displaying a fault plane with strike of N145°E, and a preferred dip angle of 55°SW, consistent with the trend of aftershock locations and other published results. Teleseismic finite-fault inversions for this event show a large slip zone along the southern part of the fault, correlating well with the reported spatial density of aftershocks. The second earthquake (14 hr 55 min GMT) appears to have ruptured a fault branching southward from the previous ruptured fault, within the hanging wall of the first event. Modelling seismograms at regional to teleseismic distances (Δ > 10°) is quite challenging because the observed seismic wave fields of both events overlap, increasing apparent complexity for the second earthquake. We perform both point- and extended-source inversions at regional and teleseismic distances, assessing model sensitivities resulting from variations in fault orientation, dimension, and hypocentre location. Results show that the focal mechanism for the second event features a steeper dip angle and a strike rotated slightly clockwise with respect to the previous event. This kind of geological fault configuration, with secondary rupture in the hanging wall of a large normal fault, is commonly observed in extensional geological regimes. We propose that both earthquakes form part of a typical normal fault diverging splay, where the secondary fault connects to the main fault at depth. To ascertain more information on the spatial and temporal details of slip for both events, we gathered near-fault seismological and geodetic data. Through forward modelling of near-fault synthetic seismograms we build a kinematic k −2 earthquake source model with spatially distributed slip on the fault that, to first-order, explains both coseismic static displacement GPS vectors and short-period seismometer observations at the closest sites. As expected, the results for the first event agree with the focal mechanism derived from teleseismic modelling, with a magnitude M w 6.97. Similarly, near-fault modelling for the second event suggests rupture along a normal fault, M w 6.90, characterized by a steeper dip angle (dip = 74°) and a strike clockwise rotated (strike = 155°) with respect to the previous event.

Pichilemu↗

USGS2010

The Quaternary Silver Creek Fault Beneath the Santa Clara Valley, California

The northwest-trending Silver Creek Fault is a 40-km-long strike-slip fault in the eastern Santa Clara Valley, California, that has exhibited different behaviors within a changing San Andreas Fault system over the past 10-15 Ma. Quaternary alluvium several hundred meters thick that buries the northern half of the Silver Creek Fault, and that has been sampled by drilling and imaged in a detailed seismic reflection profile, provides a record of the Quaternary history of the fault. We assemble evidence from areal geology, stratigraphy, paleomagnetics, ground-water hydrology, potential-field geophysics, and reflection and earthquake seismology to determine the long history of the fault in order to evaluate its current behavior. The fault formed in the Miocene more than 100 km to the southeast, as the southwestern fault in a 5-km-wide right step to the Hayward Fault, within which the 40-km-long Evergreen pull-apart basin formed. Later, this basin was obliquely cut by the newly recognized Mt. Misery Fault to form a more direct connection to the Hayward Fault, although continued growth of the basin was sufficient to accommodate at least some late Pliocene alluvium. Large offset along the San Andreas-Calaveras-Mt Misery-Hayward Faults carried the basin northwestward almost to its present position when, about 2 Ma, the fault system was reorganized. This led to near abandonment of the faults bounding the pull-apart basin in favor of right slip extending the Calaveras Fault farther north before stepping west to the Hayward Fault, as it does today. Despite these changes, the Silver Creek Fault experienced a further 200 m of dip slip in the early Quaternary, from which we infer an associated 1.6 km or so of right slip, based on the ratio of the 40-km length of the strike-slip fault to a 5-km depth of the Evergreen Basin. This dip slip ends at a mid-Quaternary unconformity, above which the upper 300 m of alluvial cover exhibits a structural sag at the fault that we interpret as a negative flower structure. This structure implies some continuing strike slip on the Silver Creek Fault in the late Quaternary as well, with a transtensional component but no dip slip. Our only basis for estimating the rate of this later Quaternary strike slip on the Silver Creek Fault is to assume continuation of the inferred early Quaternary rate of less than 2 mm/yr. Faulting evident in a detailed seismic reflection profile across the Silver Creek Fault extends up to the limit of data at a depth of 50 m and age of about 140 ka, and the course of Coyote Creek suggests Holocene capture in a structural depression along the fault. No surface trace is evident on the alluvial plain, however, and convincing evidence of Holocene offset is lacking. Few instrumentally recorded earthquakes are located near the fault, and those that are near its southern end represent cross-fault shortening, not strike slip. The fault might have been responsible, however, for two poorly located moderate earthquakes that occurred in the area in 1903. Its southeastern end does mark an abrupt change in the pattern of abundant instrumentally recorded earthquakes along the Calaveras Fault-in both its strike and in the depth distribution of hypocenters-that could indicate continuing influence by the Silver Creek Fault. In the absence of convincing evidence to the contrary, and as a conservative estimate, we presume that the Silver Creek Fault has continued its strike-slip movement through the Holocene, but at a very slow rate. Such a slow rate would, at most, yield very infrequent damaging earthquakes. If the 1903 earthquakes did, in fact, occur on the Silver Creek Fault, they would have greatly reduced the short-term future potential for large earthquakes on the fault.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1975

Earthquake shaking and damage to buildings

Ground shaking close to the causative fault of an earthquake is more intense than it was previously believed to be. This raises the possibility that large numbers of buildings and other structures are not sufficiently resistant for the intense levels of shaking that can occur close to the fault. Many structures were built before earthquake codes were adopted; others were built according to codes formulated when less was known about the intensity of near-fault shaking. Although many building types are more resistant than conventional design analyses imply, the margin of safety is difficult to quantify. Many modern structures, such as freeways, have not been subjected to and tested by near-fault shaking in major earthquakes (magnitude 7 or greater). Damage patterns in recent moderate-sized earthquakes occurring in or adjacent to urbanized areas, however, indicate that many structures, including some modern ones designed to meet earthquake code requirements, cannot withstand the severe shaking that can occur close to a fault. It is necessary to review the ground motion assumed and the methods utilized in the design of important existing structures and, if necessary, to strengthen or modify the use of structures that are found to be weak. New structures situated close to active faults should be designed on the basis of ground motion estimates greater than those used in the past. The ultimate balance between risk of earthquake losses and cost for both remedial strengthening and improved earthquake-resistant construction must be decided by the public. Scientists and engineers must inform the public about earthquake shaking and its effect on structures. The exposure to damage from seismic shaking is steadily increasing because of continuing urbanization and the increasing complexity of lifeline systems, such as power, water, transportation, and communication systems. In the near future we should expect additional painful examples of the damage potential of moderate-sized earthquakes in urban areas. Over a longer time span, however, we can significantly reduce the risk to life and property from seismic shaking through better land utilization, improved building codes and construction practices, and at least the gradual replacement of poor buildings by more resistant buildings. Progress toward reducing risk from seismic shaking through better building design is slowed by deficiencies in our knowledge about the nature of damaging ground motion and the failure mechanisms in structures. For example, lacking observational data, seismologists must rely on simplified theoretical and numerical models of the earthquake process to estimate near-fault ground motion, especially for earthquakes as large as magnitude 7 and 8. Because such models have not been adequately tested against data, their reliability is unknown. Engineers lack detailed information about failure processes in structures during an earthquake. Although many structures have been instrumented to measure their response to an earthquake, few records have been obtained from buildings that actually sustained significant structural damage and few structures are properly instrumented to measure all the modes of deformation that are likely to contribute to failure. Moreover, the fact that many structures have withstood ground motion more intense than that assumed in their design indicates that conventional methods of design do not take into account important contributions to earthquake resistance by nonstructural elements and by the ability of structural elements to deform inelastically without necessarily causing failure of the structure. It is fortunate when such reserve resistance exists, but better understanding of the sources of reserve strength is needed to determine how large a margin of safety they confer and how they might be affected by changes in construction practices and materials with time. In the next few years we look forward to significant advances in knowledge and to more effective application of what is already known, largely because of substantial funding of research related to seismic engineering by the National Science Foundation . The increasing number of strong-motion seismographs operating in seismically active regions will likely provide for the first time a number of records of damaging levels of ground motion. Significant effort is being directed toward obtaining near-fault records, although many probable sites of future large earthquakes remain inadequately instrumented, especially outside the conterminous United States. New and more complete information on building response and damage mechanisms will be obtained by improved instrumentation of structures and through laboratory investigations of failure in structures and structural elements. Further developments in computer technology and in computer modeling techniques will permit more realistic simulations of the seismic response of soils and structures that take into account their inelastic behavior and their strain-dependent properties. Earthquake design codes will continually be revised to better utilize existing knowledge concerning the nature of strong ground motion and the dynamic behavior of buildings during earthquakes and to incorporate new knowledge and also experiences gained from future earthquakes. We believe that application of new knowledge, improvements in earthquake-resistant design and construction, and remedial strengthening or replacement of weak existing structures can significantly reduce our current level of exposure to earthquake hazards.

Science↗

USGS2017

Holocene earthquakes of magnitude 7 during westward escape of the Olympic Mountains, Washington

The Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault, previously mapped in Miocene bedrock as an oblique thrust on the north flank of the Olympic Mountains, poses a significant earthquake hazard. Mapping using 2015 light detection and ranging (lidar) confirms 2004 lidar mapping of postglacial ( < 13    ka "> < 13 ka ) and Holocene fault scarps along the 22‐km‐long eastern section of the fault and documents Holocene scarps that extend ≥ 14    km "> ≥ 14 km along a splay fault, the Sadie Creek fault, west of Lake Crescent. Scarp morphology suggests repeated earthquake ruptures along the eastern section of the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault and the Sadie Creek fault since ∼ 13    ka "> ∼ 13 ka . Right‐lateral ( ∼ 11 – 28    m "> ∼ 11 – 28 m ) and vertical (1–2 m) cumulative fault offsets suggest slip rates of ∼ 1 – 2    mm / yr "> ∼ 1 – 2 mm / yr Stratigraphic and age‐model data from five trenches perpendicular to scarps at four sites on the eastern section of the fault show evidence of 3–5 surface‐rupturing earthquakes. Near‐vertical fault dips and upward‐branching fault patterns in trenches, abrupt changes in the thickness of stratigraphic units across faults, and variations in vertical displacement of successive stratigraphic units along fault traces also suggest a large lateral component of slip. Age models suggest two earthquakes date from 1.3 ± 0.8 "> 1.3 ± 0.8 and 2.9 ± 0.6    ka "> 2.9 ± 0.6 ka ; evidence and ages for 2–3 earlier earthquakes are less certain. Assuming 3–5 postglacial earthquakes, lateral and vertical cumulative fault offsets yield average slip per earthquake of ∼ 4.6    m "> ∼ 4.6 m , a lateral‐to‐vertical slip ratio of ∼ 10 : 1 "> ∼ 10 : 1 , and a recurrence interval of 3.5 ± 1.0    ka "> 3.5 ± 1.0 ka . Empirical relations yield moment magnitude estimates of M 7.2–7.5 (slip per earthquake) and 7.1–7.3 (56 km maximum rupture length). An apparent left‐lateral Miocene to right‐lateral Holocene slip reversal on the faults is probably related to overprinting of east‐directed, accretion‐dominated deformation in the eastern core of the Olympic Mountains by north‐directed, margin‐parallel shortening and westward escape of the mountains.

Washington↗

USGS2014

Holocene and latest Pleistocene paleoseismology of the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah, at the Penrose Drive Trench Site

The Salt Lake City segment (SLCS) of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) and the West Valley fault zone (WVFZ) compromise Holocene-active normal faults that bound a large intrabasin graben in northern Salt Lake Valley and have evidence of recurrent, large-magnitude (M ~6-7) surface-faulting earthquakes. However, at the time of this investigation, questions remained regarding the timing, displacement, and recurrence of latest Pleistocene and Holocene earthquakes on the northern SLCS and WVFZ , and whether the WVFZ is seismically independent of, or moves coseismically with, the SLCS. To improve paleoseismic data for the SLCS, we conducted a fault-trench investigation at the Penrose Drive site on the northern SLCS. Two trenches, excavated across an 11-m-high scarp near the northern end of the East Bench fault, exposed colluvial-wedge evidence for fize of six (preferred) surface-faulting earthquakes postdating to Provo-phase shoreline of Lake Bonneville (~14-18 ka). Radiocarbon and luminescence ages support earthquake times at 4.0 ± 0.5 ka (2σ) (PD1), 5.9 ± 0.7 ka (PD2), 7.5 ± 0.8 ka (PD3a), 9.7 ± 1.1 ka (PD3b), 10.9 ± 0.2 ka (PD4), and 12.1 ± 1.6 ka (PD5). At least one additional earthquake occurred at 16.5 ± 1.9 ka (PD6) based on an erosional unconformity that separates deformed Lake Bonneville sily and flat-lying Provo-phase shoreline gravel. Earthquakes PD5-PD1 yield latest Pleistocene (post-Provo) and Holocene mean recurrence intervals of ~1.6 kyr and ~1.7-1.9 kyr, respectively. Using 1.0-1.4 m of per-event vertical displacement for PD5-PD3b corroborate previously identified SLCS earthquakes at 4-10 ka. PD4 and PD5 occurred within an ~8-kyr *17-9 ka) time interval on the SLCS previously interpreted as a period of seismic quiescence, and PD6 possibly corresponds with a previously identified earthquake at ~17 ka (although both events have large timing uncertainties). The Penrose data, when combined with previous paleoseismic results, improve the latest Pleistocene-Holocene earthquake chronology of the SLCS, and demonstrate that the SLCS has been a consistently active source of large-magnitude earthquakes since the latest Pleistocene. At least nine surface-faulting earthquakes (S1-S9) have occurred since the highstand of Lake Bonneville (~18 ka). Where the SLCS earthquake record is most complete (since ~14 ka), per-site estimates of mean recurrence are similar for the latest Pleistocene (post-Provo) (~1.6 kyr), Holocene (~1.6-1.9 kyr), and late Holocene (~1.2-1.4 kyr). These SLCS paleoearthquake data indicate an essentially stable rate of earthquake recurrence since the latest Pleistocene and are important for understanding the earthquake potential of the SLCS, clarifying the seismogenic relation between the SLCS and WVFZ, and forecasting the probabilities of future large-magnitude earthquake in the Wasatch Front region.

Utah↗

USGS2008

Ground-motion modeling of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, part II: Ground-motion estimates for the 1906 earthquake and scenario events

We estimate the ground motions produce by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake making use of the recently developed Song et al. (2008) source model that combines the available geodetic and seismic observations and recently constructed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. Our estimates of the ground motions for the 1906 earthquake are consistent across five ground-motion modeling groups employing different wave propagation codes and simulation domains. The simulations successfully reproduce the main features of the Boatwright and Bundock (2005) ShakeMap, but tend to over predict the intensity of shaking by 0.1-0.5 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units. Velocity waveforms at sites throughout the San Francisco Bay Area exhibit characteristics consistent with rupture directivity, local geologic conditions (e.g., sedimentary basins), and the large size of the event (e.g., durations of strong shaking lasting tens of seconds). We also compute ground motions for seven hypothetical scenarios rupturing the same extent of the northern San Andreas fault, considering three additional hypocenters and an additional, random distribution of slip. Rupture directivity exerts the strongest influence on the variations in shaking, although sedimentary basins do consistently contribute to the response in some locations, such as Santa Rosa, Livermore, and San Jose. These scenarios suggest that future large earthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault may subject the current San Francisco Bay urban area to stronger shaking than a repeat of the 1906 earthquake. Ruptures propagating southward towards San Francisco appear to expose more of the urban area to a given intensity level than do ruptures propagating northward.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2020

Operational earthquake forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS model

The first Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3–epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) aftershock simulations were running on a high‐performance computing cluster within 33 min of the 4 July 2019 M 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake. UCERF3‐ETAS, an extension of the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), is the first comprehensive, fault‐based, epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. It produces ensembles of synthetic aftershock sequences both on and off explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults to answer a key question repeatedly asked during the Ridgecrest sequence: What are the chances that the earthquake that just occurred will turn out to be the foreshock of an even bigger event?

California↗

USGS2000

Triggered surface slips in the Coachella Valley area associated with the 1992 Joshua Tree and Landers, California, Earthquakes

T he Coachella Valley area was strongly shaken by the 1992 Joshua Tree (23 April) and Landers (28 June) earthquakes, and both events caused triggered slip on active faults within the area. Triggered slip associated with the Joshua Tree earthquake was on a newly recognized fault, the East Wide Canyon fault, near the southwestern edge of the Little San Bernardino Mountains. Slip associated with the Landers earthquake formed along the San Andreas fault in the southeastern Coachella Valley. Surface fractures formed along the East Wide Canyon fault in association with the Joshua Tree earthquake. The fractures extended discontinuously over a 1.5-km stretch of the fault, near its southern end. Sense of slip was consistently right-oblique, west side down, similar to the long-term style of faulting. Measured offset values were small, with right-lateral and vertical components of slip ranging from 1 to 6 mm and 1 to 4 mm, respectively. This is the first documented historic slip on the East Wide Canyon fault, which was first mapped only months before the Joshua Tree earthquake. Surface slip associated with the Joshua Tree earthquake most likely developed as triggered slip given its 5 km distance from the Joshua Tree epicenter and aftershocks. As revealed in a trench investigation, slip formed in an area with only a thin (<3 m thick) veneer of alluvium in contrast to earlier documented triggered slip events in this region, all in the deep basins of the Salton Trough. A paleoseismic trench study in an area of 1992 surface slip revealed evidence of two and possibly three surface faulting events on the East Wide Canyon fault during the late Quaternary, probably latest Pleistocene (first event) and mid- to late Holocene (second two events). About two months after the Joshua Tree earthquake, the Landers earthquake then triggered slip on many faults, including the San Andreas fault in the southeastern Coachella Valley. Surface fractures associated with this event formed discontinuous breaks over a 54-km-long stretch of the fault, from the Indio Hills southeastward to Durmid Hill. Sense of slip was right-lateral; only locally was there a minor (∼1 mm) vertical component of slip. Measured dextral displacement values ranged from 1 to 20 mm, with the largest amounts found in the Mecca Hills where large slip values have been measured following past triggered-slip events.

California↗

USGS1995

Geologic map of the Hayward fault zone, Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara counties, California: A digital database

The Hayward is one of three major fault zones of the San Andreas system that have produced large historic earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area (the others being the San Andreas and Calaveras). Severe earthquakes were generated by this fault zone in 1836 and in 1868, and several large earthquakes have been recorded since 1868. The Hayward fault zone is considered to be the most probable source of a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, as much as 28% chance for a magnitude 7 earthquake before the year 2021 (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1990). The Hayward fault zone, as described in this work, is a zone of highly deformed rocks, trending north 30 degrees west and ranging in width from about 2 to 10 kilometers. The historic earthquake generating activity has been concentrated in the western portion of the zone, but the zone as a whole reflects deformation derived from oblique right-lateral and compressive tectonic stress along a significant upper crustal discontinuity for the past 10 million or more years. The Hayward fault zone is bounded on the east by a series of faults that demarcate the beginning of one or more structural blocks containing rocks and structures unrelated to the Hayward fault zone. The eastern bounding faults are, from the south, the Calaveras, Stonybrook, Palomares, Miller Creek, and Moraga faults. These faults are not considered to be part of the Hayward fault zone, although they are shown on the map to demarcate its boundary. The western boundary of the zone is less clearly defined, because the alluvium of the San Francisco Bay and Santa Clara Valley basins obscures bedrock and structural relationships. Although several of the westernmost faults in the zone clearly project under or through the alluvium, the western boundary of the fault is generally considered to be the westernmost mapped fault, which corresponds more or less with the margin of thick unconsolidated surficial deposits. The Hayward fault zone is truncated to the south by the Calaveras fault, which trends about north 10 west, and so forms an oblique east and south boundary. All of the faults within the southern part of the zone probably splay into the Calaveras fault. The northern margin of the zone as dealt with herein is San Pablo Bay, but the zone of deformation undoubtedly continues north of the Bay through the area bounded by the Rodgers Creek and Tolay faults.

California↗

USGS2002

35 - Strength and energetics of active fault zones

The strength of active fault zones, i.e., the shear stress level required to cause fault slip, is fundamental to understanding the physics of earthquakes and to assessing earthquake hazard. Although many researchers have concluded that fault zones are weak (shear stresses 10 MPa or less averaged between 0 and ˜20 km depth), others maintain that faults are strong (˜100 MPa average of an approximate linear increase with depth). Thus, despite 30 y of dedicated research, relevant data remain inconclusive and fault strength remains uncertain by an order of magnitude. In part, this is because the main source of energy release in earthquakes is at depths greater than 5 km, inaccessible to direct instrumental observation. Very large earthquakes rupture to the Earth's surface where direct observation of the shallow rupture process is possible. However, the rupture characteristics at shallow depth may differ from those at seismogenic depths. To date no great ( M ≥ 7.75) earthquakes have occurred within a network of modern strong-motion instruments, but the large, well-recorded 1999 earthquakes in Turkey and Taiwan, both M = 7.6, show that this data gap is rapidly being filled. Furthermore, shear stress changes at the earthquake source (and the resulting seismic waves) are nearly linear perturbations of the absolute stress field. Thus, an unknown absolute background stress does not greatly affect the basic characteristics of the observed low frequency seismic waves and the observed geodetic deformation. Other, less-direct data must then be used to infer the physical state and ambient stress levels on active faults. This chapter discusses available evidence and current ideas about fault zone strength and energetics. In our review we begin by outlining the general physical conditions prevailing in the Earth around active faults and summarize the generally agreed upon observational features of faulting and earthquake occurrence ( Section 2 ). In doing so we make as few assumptions as possible, because making uncertain assumptions may lead to logical inconsistencies and apparent paradoxes. For example, the absence of a measurable, frictionally generated heat flow anomaly near active faults, the so-called stress-heat flow paradox, rests upon assumptions that must somehow be incorrect. We wish to avoid such inconsistencies and to begin we introduce the observations and briefly state what they imply about fault zones. Subsequently, in Sections 3–8 , we place these observations in an interpretative context and show how they have been used to infer various measures of fault shear stress. Section 9 summarizes our assessment of the average shear stress state near faults, argues for the general importance of stress heterogeneity in faulting processes, and discusses its implications.

International Geophysics↗

USGS1969

Tectonics of the March 27, 1964, Alaska earthquake

The March 27, 1964, earthquake was accomp anied by crustal deformation-including warping, horizontal distortion, and faulting-over probably more than 110,000 square miles of land and sea bottom in south-central Alaska. Regional uplift and subsidence occurred mainly in two nearly parallel elongate zones, together about 600 miles long and as much as 250 miles wide, that lie along the continental margin. From the earthquake epicenter in northern Prince William Sound, the deformation extends eastward 190 miles almost to long 142° and southwestward slightly more than 400 miles to about long 155°. It extends across the two zones from the chain of active volcanoes in the Aleutian Range and Wrangell Mountains probably to the Aleutian Trench axis. Uplift that averages 6 feet over broad areas occurred mainly along the coast of the Gulf of Alaska, on the adjacent Continental Shelf, and probably on the continental slope. This uplift attained a measured maximum on land of 38 feet in a northwest-trending narrow belt less than 10 miles wide that is exposed on Montague Island in southwestern Prince William Sound. Two earthquake faults exposed on Montague Island are subsidiary northwest-dipping reverse faults along which the northwest blocks were relatively displaced a maximum of 26 feet, and both blocks were upthrown relative to sea level. From Montague Island, the faults and related belt of maximum uplift may extend southwestward on the Continental Shelf to the vicinity of the Kodiak group of islands. To the north and northwest of the zone of uplift, subsidence forms a broad asymmetrical downwarp centered over the Kodiak-Kenai-Chugach Mountains that averages 2½ feet and attains a measured maximum of 7½ feet along the southwest coast of the Kenai Peninsula. Maximum indicated uplift in the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges to the north of the zone of subsidence was l½ feet. Retriangulation over roughly 25,000 square miles of the deformed region in and around Prince William Sound shows that vertical movements there were accompanied by horizontal distortion, involving systematic shifts of about 64 feet in a relative seaward direction. Comparable horizontal movements are presumed to have affected those parts of the major zones of uplift and subsidence for which retriangulation data are unavailable. Regional vertical deformation generated a train of destructive long-period seismic sea waves in the Gulf of Alaska as well as unique atmospheric and ionospheric disturbances that were recorded at points far distant from Alaska. Warping resulted in permanent tilt of larger lake basins and temporary reductions in discharge of some major rivers. Uplift and subsidence relative to sea level caused profound modifications in shoreline morphology with attendant catastrophic effects on the nearshore biota and costly damage to coasta1 installations. Systematic horizontal movements of the land relative to bodies of confined or semiconfined water may have caused unexplained short-period waves—some of which were highly destructive—observed during or immediately after the earthquake at certain coastal localities and in Kenai Lake. Porosity increases, probably related to horizontal displacements in the zone of subsidence, were reflected in lowered well-water levels and in losses of surface water. The primary fault, or zone of faults, along which the earthquake occurred is not exposed at the surface on land. Focal-mechanism studies, when considered in conjunction with the pattern of deformation and seismicity, suggest that it was a complex thrust fault (megathrust) dipping at a gentle angle beneath the continental margin from the vicinity of the Aleutian Trench. Movement on the megathrust was accompanied by subsidiary reverse faulting, and perhaps wrench faulting, within the upper plate. Aftershock distribution suggests movement on a segment of the megathrust, some 550–600 miles long and 110–180 miles wide, that underlies most of the major zone of uplift and the seaward part of the major zone of subsidence. According to the postulated model, the observed and inferred tectonic displacements that accompanied the earthquake resulted primarily from (1) relative seaward displacement and uplift of the seaward part of the block by movement along the dipping megathrust and subsidiary faults that break through the upper plate to the surface, and (2) simultaneous elastic horizontal extension and vertical attenuation (subsidence) of the crustal slab behind the upper plate. Slight uplift inland from the major zones of deformation presumably was related to elastic strain changes resulting from the overthrusting; however, the data are insufficient to permit conclusions regarding its cause. The belt of seismic activity and major zones of tectonic deformation associated with the 1964 earthquake, to a large extent, lie between and parallel to the Aleutian Volcanic Arc and the Aleutian Trench, and are probably genetically related to the arc. Geologic data indicate that the earthquake-related tectonic movements were but the most recent pulse in an episode of deformation that probably began in late Pleistocene time and has continued intermittently to the present. Evidence for progressive coastal submergence in the deformed region for several centuries preceding the earthquake, in combin1ation with transverse horizontal shortening indicated by the retriangulation data, suggests pre-earthquake strain directed at a gentle angle downward beneath the arc. The duration of strain accumulation in the epicentral region, as interpreted from the time interval during which the coastal submergence occurred, probably is 930–1,360 years.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

A fault-based model for crustal deformation, fault slip-rates and off-fault strain rate in California

We invert Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity data to estimate fault slip rates in California using a fault‐based crustal deformation model with geologic constraints. The model assumes buried elastic dislocations across the region using Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault geometries. New GPS velocity and geologic slip‐rate data were compiled by the UCERF3 deformation working group. The result of least‐squares inversion shows that the San Andreas fault slips at 19–22  mm/yr along Santa Cruz to the North Coast, 25–28  mm/yr along the central California creeping segment to the Carrizo Plain, 20–22  mm/yr along the Mojave, and 20–24  mm/yr along the Coachella to the Imperial Valley. Modeled slip rates are 7–16  mm/yr lower than the preferred geologic rates from the central California creeping section to the San Bernardino North section. For the Bartlett Springs section, fault slip rates of 7–9  mm/yr fall within the geologic bounds but are twice the preferred geologic rates. For the central and eastern Garlock, inverted slip rates of 7.5 and 4.9  mm/yr, respectively, match closely with the geologic rates. For the western Garlock, however, our result suggests a low slip rate of 1.7  mm/yr. Along the eastern California shear zone and southern Walker Lane, our model shows a cumulative slip rate of 6.2–6.9  mm/yr across its east–west transects, which is &sim;1  mm/yr increase of the geologic estimates. For the off‐coast faults of central California, from Hosgri to San Gregorio, fault slips are modeled at 1–5  mm/yr, similar to the lower geologic bounds. For the off‐fault deformation, the total moment rate amounts to 0.88×10 19   N·m/yr, with fast straining regions found around the Mendocino triple junction, Transverse Ranges and Garlock fault zones, Landers and Brawley seismic zones, and farther south. The overall California moment rate is 2.76×10 19   N·m/yr, which is a 16% increase compared with the UCERF2 model.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗