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Faults & earthquakes

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USGS2017

The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of the Earth’s surface that the fault rupture and shaking will activate.

California↗
USGS2011

Deep rock damage in the San Andreas Fault revealed by P- and S-type fault-zone-guided waves

Damage to fault-zone rocks during fault slip results in the formation of a channel of low seismic-wave velocities. Within such channels guided seismic waves, denoted by Fg, can propagate. Here we show with core samples, well logs and Fg-waves that such a channel is crossed by the SAFOD (San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth) borehole at a depth of 2.7 km near Parkfield, California, USA. This laterally extensive channel extends downwards to at least half way through the seismogenic crust, more than about 7 km. The channel supports not only the previously recognized Love-type- (FL) and Rayleigh-type- (FR) guided waves, but also a new fault-guided wave, which we name FF. As recorded 2.7 km underground, FF is normally dispersed, ends in an Airy phase, and arrives between the P- and S-waves. Modelling shows that FF travels as a leaky mode within the core of the fault zone. Combined with the drill core samples, well logs and the two other types of guided waves, FF at SAFOD reveals a zone of profound, deep, rock damage. Originating from damage accumulated over the recent history of fault movement, we suggest it is maintained either by fracturing near the slip surface of earthquakes, such as the 1857 Fort Tejon M 7.9, or is an unexplained part of the fault-creep process known to be active at this site.

California↗
USGS2015

Stafford fault system: 120 million year fault movement history of northern Virginia

The Stafford fault system, located in the mid-Atlantic coastal plain of the eastern United States, provides the most complete record of fault movement during the past ~120 m.y. across the Virginia, Washington, District of Columbia (D.C.), and Maryland region, including displacement of Pleistocene terrace gravels. The Stafford fault system is close to and aligned with the Piedmont Spotsylvania and Long Branch fault zones. The dominant southwest-northeast trend of strong shaking from the 23 August 2011, moment magnitude M w 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake is consistent with the connectivity of these faults, as seismic energy appears to have traveled along the documented and proposed extensions of the Stafford fault system into the Washington, D.C., area. Some other faults documented in the nearby coastal plain are clearly rooted in crystalline basement faults, especially along terrane boundaries. These coastal plain faults are commonly assumed to have undergone relatively uniform movement through time, with average slip rates from 0.3 to 1.5 m/m.y. However, there were higher rates during the Paleocene–early Eocene and the Pliocene (4.4–27.4 m/m.y), suggesting that slip occurred primarily during large earthquakes. Further investigation of the Stafford fault system is needed to understand potential earthquake hazards for the Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., area. The combined Stafford fault system and aligned Piedmont faults are ~180 km long, so if the combined fault system ruptured in a single event, it would result in a significantly larger magnitude earthquake than the Mineral earthquake. Many structures most strongly affected during the Mineral earthquake are along or near the Stafford fault system and its proposed northeastward extension.

Virginia↗
USGS2022

Observation-constrained multicycle dynamic models of the southern San Andreas and the northern San Jacinto Faults: Addressing complexity in paleoearthquake extent and recurrence with realistic 2D fault geometry

Understanding mechanical conditions that lead to complexity in earthquakes is important to seismic hazard analysis. In this study, we simulate physics-based multicycle dynamic models of the San Andreas fault (Carrizo through San Bernardino sections) and the San Jacinto fault (Claremont and Clark strands). We focus on a complex fault geometry based on the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model and its effect over multiple earthquake cycles. Using geodetically derived strain rates, we validate the models against geologic slip rates and recurrence intervals at various paleoseismic sites. We find that the interactions among fault geometry, dynamic rupture and interseismic stress accumulation produce stress heterogeneities, leading to rupture segmentation and variability in earthquake recurrence. Our models produce earthquakes with rupture extents similar to a recent comprehensive paleoseismic catalog. The “earthquake gates” of the Big Bend and the Cajon Pass occasionally impede dynamic ruptures. The angle of compression, which is the subtraction of the maximum shear strain rate direction from the local fault strike, can better determine the likelihood of the impedance of restraining bends to dynamic ruptures. Because the Big Bend has an angle of compression of ∼20°, ruptures that traverse the Big Bend, like the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, are more frequent than expected based on empirical relations which predict the ∼40° restraining bend to terminate most ruptures. Our models indicate that large ruptures tend to initiate north of the Big Bend and propagate southwards, similar to the 1857 earthquake, providing critical information for ground shaking assessment in the region.

California↗
USGS1999

Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity: A comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults

We present a new three-dimensional inventory of the southern San Francisco Bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 M = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989. The major high-angle right-lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique (right-lateral/thrust) faults. Seismicity on oblique-slip faults in the southern Santa Clara Valley thrust belt increased where the faults were undamped. The strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction. In contrast, we observe that faults with significant offset (>50–100 km) behave differently; microseismicity on the Hayward fault diminished where right-lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was undamped by the Loma Prieta earthquake. We observe a similar response on the San Andreas fault zone in southern California after the Landers earthquake sequence. Additionally, the offshore San Gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right-lateral/oblique shear stress was increased by the Loma Prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it. These responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones. We can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup; coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes, whereas in more limited offset faults, fluids could rapidly escape. The difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes, since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2011

Loading of the San Andreas fault by flood-induced rupture of faults beneath the Salton Sea

The southern San Andreas fault has not experienced a large earthquake for approximately 300 years, yet the previous five earthquakes occurred at ~180-year intervals. Large strike-slip faults are often segmented by lateral stepover zones. Movement on smaller faults within a stepover zone could perturb the main fault segments and potentially trigger a large earthquake. The southern San Andreas fault terminates in an extensional stepover zone beneath the Salton Sea—a lake that has experienced periodic flooding and desiccation since the late Holocene. Here we reconstruct the magnitude and timing of fault activity beneath the Salton Sea over several earthquake cycles. We observe coincident timing between flooding events, stepover fault displacement and ruptures on the San Andreas fault. Using Coulomb stress models, we show that the combined effect of lake loading, stepover fault movement and increased pore pressure could increase stress on the southern San Andreas fault to levels sufficient to induce failure. We conclude that rupture of the stepover faults, caused by periodic flooding of the palaeo-Salton Sea and by tectonic forcing, had the potential to trigger earthquake rupture on the southern San Andreas fault. Extensional stepover zones are highly susceptible to rapid stress loading and thus the Salton Sea may be a nucleation point for large ruptures on the southern San Andreas fault.

California↗
USGS2009

The 1911 M ~6.6 Calaveras earthquake: Source parameters and the role of static, viscoelastic, and dynamic coulomb stress changes imparted by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

The occurrence of a right-lateral strike-slip earthquake in 1911 is inconsistent with the calculated 0.2-2.5 bar static stress decrease imparted by the 1906 rupture at that location on the Calaveras fault, and 5 yr of calculated post-1906 viscoelastic rebound does little to reload the fault. We have used all available first-motion, body-wave, and surface-wave data to explore possible focal mechanisms for the 1911 earthquake. We find that the event was most likely a right-lateral strikeslip event on the Calaveras fault, larger than, but otherwise resembling, the 1984 M w 6.1 Morgan Hill earthquake in roughly the same location. Unfortunately, we could recover no unambiguous surface fault offset or geodetic strain data to corroborate the seismic analysis despite an exhaustive archival search. We calculated the static and dynamic Coulomb stress changes for three 1906 source models to understand stress transfer to the 1911 site. In contrast to the static stress shadow, the peak dynamic Coulomb stress imparted by the 1906 rupture promoted failure at the site of the 1911 earthquake by 1.4-5.8 bar. Perhaps because the sample is small and the aftershocks are poorly located, we find no correlation of 1906 aftershock frequency or magnitude with the peak dynamic stress, although all aftershocks sustained a calculated dynamic stress of ???3 bar. Just 20 km to the south of the 1911 epicenter, we find that surface creep of the Calaveras fault at Hollister paused for ~17 yr after 1906, about the expected delay for the calculated static stress drop imparted by the 1906 earthquake when San Andreas fault postseismic creep and viscoelastic relaxation are included. Thus, the 1911 earthquake may have been promoted by the transient dynamic stresses, while Calaveras fault creep 20 km to the south appears to have been inhibited by the static stress changes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗