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At least 1,225 records · Page 68Linked to original sources

Spatial units to support Lake Erie Cisco Coregonus artedi restoration

At the request of the Lake Erie Committee, spatial units for Lake Erie Cisco were delineated during spring 2024. Spatial units correspond to the reproductive habitat of extirpated (unoccupied spatial units) and extant (occupied spatial units) populations. Spatial units were delineated using a Council of Lake Committees-endorsed method that involves synthesizing data for evaluation by a panel with expertise on the focal organisms and ecosystems. By examining catch, survey, observational, and genetic data, an expert panel determined that no viable Cisco populations remain in Lake Erie. Experts delineated one eastern and one western unoccupied Cisco spatial unit in Lake Erie based on interpretation of historical movement and spawning locations and timing. The expert panel also identified eleven key questions that can be investigated to further inform Lake Erie Cisco restoration. The two unoccupied spatial units will form the basis of a follow-on threats assessment and population viability models that together provide fishery managers science-based planning tools for Lake Erie Cisco restoration.

Lake Erie↗

Relative influence of flow regime, natural and anthropogenic environment on multidimensional stream fish diversity

The flow regime is considered a ‘master variable’ in riverine ecology because it directly influences stream geomorphology and biological communities. However, other environmental and anthropogenic factors have direct and synergistic effects with flow on fish diversity, complicating estimates of the flow regime's true importance. Moreover, most flow-ecology studies focus only on taxonomic diversity (i.e., species), without considering functional (trait-focused) or phylogenetic (evolution-focused) dimensions of diversity. In this study, we used linear regression with variation partitioning to parse out the independent and shared roles of the flow regime, physical environmental factors (e.g., soil characteristics) and the anthropogenic environment (e.g., developed land cover) for structuring multidimensional diversity of 365 stream fish communities in two biogeographic regions across South Carolina, USA. These variables explained between 8% and 18% of total variation of the local diversity. The flow regime contributed to diversity in all cases, but frequently covaried with physical and/or anthropogenic environmental variables. This covariation indicated that the independent role of flow would have been inflated if other environmental variables were not considered. The three dimensions of stream fish diversity were weakly correlated with one another and were associated with different environmental variables, indicating that each of them represents unique and complimentary facets of fish diversity. Accordingly, only considering the independent effects of instream flow on fish diversity may miss meaningful interactions between the flow regime and the other components of the environment that influence biodiversity patterns, leading to over simplified flow–ecology relationships.

South Carolina↗

Finding the (small) cores: Spatial covariance tracks grassland bird community occupancy in fragmented grasslands

Grasslands are an imperiled ecosystem, and grassland bird abundance is declining across North America. One of the strongest drivers for these declines is woody plant encroachment of grasslands. In the Great Plains and Sagebrush biomes of North America, spatial covariance—a remote-sensing metric for tracking boundaries between vegetation types—is emerging as a new method to identify and strategize conservation of grassland cores in the face of woody plant encroachment. However, the relationship between spatial covariance and grassland bird community occupancy is unknown. Here, we used Bayesian multispecies occupancy models to understand how occupancy probability of six declining grassland species responded to spatial covariance at three scales (0.81, 7.29, and 65.61 ha) and tree cover in fragmented grasslands of Arkansas, USA. Model selection revealed that the smallest spatial scale (0.81 ha) best explained grassland bird occupancy. Tree cover alone was a poor predictor of grassland bird occupancy compared to models that included spatial covariance at the 0.81- and 7.29-ha scales. Grassland bird occupancy declined at tree-grass boundaries (negative spatial covariance at the 0.81-ha scale) and increased in grassland cores (near-zero or slightly positive spatial covariance at the 0.81-ha scale). At low tree cover, Dickcissel ( Spiza americana ), Eastern Kingbird ( Tyrannus tyrannus ), Loggerhead Shrike ( Lanius ludovicianus ), Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ), and Scissor-tailed Flycatcher ( Tyrannus forficatus ) occupancy probability more than doubled in grassland cores (where spatial covariance approached zero). Eastern Meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ) had the weakest relationship with spatial covariance. Our results suggest that spatial covariance can identify grassland cores and serve as a powerful predictor of grassland bird community occupancy, even in highly fragmented grasslands. Identifying grassland cores empowers defending core grasslands from woody plant encroachment and then growing cores via active restoration.

Arkansas↗

The effects of scientific uncertainty and values trade-offs on flow management decisions for an endangered fish

Consumptive use of freshwater is of concern in many estuarine ecosystems, and various frameworks have been used to prescribe environmental flows to benefit native species. However, few of these frameworks explicitly examine the potential trade-offs between socioeconomic and conservation-oriented values. This is exemplified in California, USA, where freshwater management has been an area of focus and controversy. Operations of numerous reservoirs and water diversion facilities distributed throughout the state, while critical for economic and public health benefits, have contributed to the decline of many native species. The endangered delta smelt ( Hypomesus transpacificus ) is endemic to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, the heart of California's complex water conveyance system. To aid recovery of delta smelt, fall-timed freshwater pulse flows were implemented, which require water to be either released from reservoirs, or made unavailable to export for consumptive uses. Previous research has indicated that the effectiveness of the current pulse flow action could be improved by reconsidering the timing and magnitude; however, uncertainties in the predicted fish response to flow pulses may hinder decision-making about flow management. Using a water resource planning model, different iterations of an individual-based life cycle model, and decision analysis tools, we assessed the importance of sources of uncertainty to hypothetical flow management decisions, including uncertainty surrounding the predicted responses in delta smelt population growth rates, and variability of decision-maker's values. We found both the choice of which (if any) flow action to take for delta smelt, and the expected value of further research, depended on how decision-makers weight the delta smelt and water supply objectives. There was expected value of information (VOI) only if a decision-maker weighted the delta smelt objective ≥0.59, and within this range, research to improve estimates of changes in delta smelt prey items related to flow actions could be prioritized over other sources of uncertainty to improve outcomes of decision-making. Our study demonstrates how uncertainty, even if large, may not be equally relevant to different decision-makers (e.g., with different agency missions), and how VOI analysis can be used to guide management in an overallocated water system such as California.

California↗

Groundwater drought in the United States: Spatial and temporal variability

Many communities and ecosystems in the United States that are dependent on groundwater are potentially adversely affected by groundwater drought. We computed yearly groundwater-drought metrics and mean groundwater levels at well locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS), using data from wells and remotely sensed and modeled Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Drought Monitor Data Assimilation (GRACE-DADM). We also modeled the probability of low or high human impact at each well location. The spatial distribution of groundwater-drought duration and severity from 2001 to 2020 for 1,510 wells shows longer maximum duration and higher maximum severity events in drier regions like the Southwest than in wetter regions like the Northeast. Based on 613 wells in CONUS from 1981 to 2020, there are many significant decreases in drought duration and severity in the Northeast and many significant increases in annual-mean groundwater levels. In contrast, there are many significant increases in drought metrics and decreases in mean water levels in parts of the Southeast. There are major differences in trends from 2001 to 2020 between well-based and GRACE-DADM-based groundwater metrics in some CONUS regions and a very low correlation between trends at individual locations across CONUS. A potential reason for this disparity is the low GRACE-DADM resolution (∼12 km) and the potential for a large amount of groundwater variation at the local scale. Also, GRACE-DADM represents shallow, unconfined aquifers which may not match the screened interval of the monitoring wells we evaluated. Large spatial gaps in long-term, high frequency, and quality-assured groundwater-well monitoring data present a challenge for understanding groundwater-drought variability across CONUS. Remote sensing tools such as GRACE can help but cannot fully replace well monitoring, as highlighted by our study results. Substantially more long-term monitoring wells would more accurately represent groundwater-drought trends and spatial variability across CONUS, particularly in western regions.

conterminous United States↗

Small-volume tephra deposits of the May 1924 explosions from Halemaʻumaʻu, Kīlauea volcano, and their origin

More than 50 explosive eruptions occurred from Halemaʻumaʻu at Kīlauea volcano over 17 days from May 11 to 27, 1924. Ballistics weighing as much as 14,000 kg were ejected and most landed within 2 km of the vent. Fine ash made up a major component of the tephra and was dispersed tens of kilometers downwind. Draining of the Halemaʻumaʻu lava lake occurred in late February 1924, with the crater floor eventually subsiding by a further ∼70 m (to ∼180 m below the crater rim) by the time the first explosions took place during the night of May 10–11. The largest explosions occurred on May 17–18 and smaller explosions continued until May 27, at which point Halemaʻumaʻu had more than doubled in width and depth. The explosions generated plumes reaching up to ∼10 km high with ballistics ejected up to 2 km from the crater. Almost 100 years later, we investigate and characterize the preserved tephra deposits within ∼3 km of the 1924 crater rim. Grain size and shape analyses were performed on 202 samples collected from 34 tephra profiles using dynamic image analysis, with a subset of layers from nine tephra profiles used for componentry (200 grains per layer in the 0.5–1 mm size fraction). Additionally, we characterize the average diameters (using the five largest clasts) at 216 locations and measure the average diameters of 2291 ballistics (largest per ∼100 m 2 area). Physical descriptions from fieldwork and grain size distributions were used to subdivide the tephra layers into five lithofacies: coarse homogeneous, fine homogenous, red ash, accretionary lapilli-bearing, and finely laminated. Grain size versus shape data show a range of values that demonstrate most grains are dense, smooth, and equant, in alignment with lithic clasts dominating the tephra componentry. The fine grained and accretionary lapilli-bearing nature of some of these lithofacies confirms that water influenced the style of the explosions. However, we also note juvenile clasts within many of the tephra layers, indicating that many of the layers were formed during phreatomagmatic explosions (sensu stricto), despite the eruptive mechanism being dominantly phreatic. Juvenile clasts are more abundant higher in the tephra profiles, suggesting that juvenile magma was more involved later in the explosive sequence. Thermal and hydrologic modeling indicate that groundwater inflow into a short-lived, small-diameter volcanic conduit (10-m to 120-m-diameter used for modeling) during the 78–85 days preceding the first explosion provides a physically plausible mechanism for this eruptive sequence.

Hawaii↗

Assessing pesticide application contributions of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in agricultural streams

Research has documented per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) to be prevalent in streams impacted by urban sources; less is known regarding PFAS contributions via pesticide applications: PFAS coming from pesticide containers and “inert” ingredients not listed on pesticide formulation labels. To better understand co-occurrence of pesticides and PFAS in agricultural streams, 10 streams were sampled in two agricultural valleys in northern California, USA during two periods of pesticide application (May and July of 2024). Water samples were analyzed for 183 pesticides and 57 PFAS. Sixty pesticides were detected: 23 herbicides, 18 insecticides, 18 fungicides, and 1 synergist. Overall detection frequencies (DF) ranged from 0 to 100%, and concentrations ranged from non-detect (ND) to 782 ng/L (fluxapyroxad). Fourteen PFAS were detected: 6 perfluoroalkyl carboxylates, 5 perfluoroalkyl sulfonates, 2 perfluoroalkyl acid precursors, and 1 perfluoroalkyl phosphinic acid with DFs ranging from 0 to 60% (PFOA) and concentrations ranging from ND to 20 ng/L (PFBA). Co-occurrence of PFAS and pesticides was observed in 80% of samples. Adopting the global definition of PFAS (includes fluorinated pesticides), pesticide applications are a likely source of instream PFAS. Examination of total organic fluorine and transformations to terminal and ultra-short PFAS could further elucidate pesticide contributions to environmental PFAS.

California↗

Deconstructing cardiovascular and coagulation-related traits links dietary ecology to multi-functional snake venom specificity

Animal venoms vary greatly in compositional complexity, where complex venoms are hypothesized to be maintained by greater dietary breadth. Beyond explaining venom composition, the dietary breadth hypothesis predicts that these more complex venoms should show greater functional breadth in terms of overall toxicity and by disrupting multiple prey physiological processes. We evaluate these predictions with six distinct physiological assays of cardiac and blood clotting functions and compared the effects of venoms from snake species with a range of taxonomic dietary diversity levels. We compared the taxonomic dietary generalists Agkistrodon piscivorus and Sistrurus miliarius to taxa with varying taxonomic specialization, namely Ag. contortrix and Crotalus adamanteus , and Azemiops feae . Comparing fish thrombocyte and mammal platelet aggregation and fibrin clot formation, only species with broader diets disrupted both fish and mammal hemostatic function. Venom of Ag. piscivorus , a uniquely fish-eating species, was the most disruptive of zebrafish heart rate, thrombocyte activation, vascular permeability, and clotting after injury. Sistrurus miliarius was also highly toxic, whereas mammal-specialists’ venoms scarcely altered zebrafish physiology. Our results support the hypothesis that dietary breadth selects functionally complex venoms. Understanding venom gene evolution, snakebite symptoms, and searching for therapeutics in venom should be guided by evolutionary ecology.

Evolution↗

Are mobile device location data a substitute for travel cost surveys?

Mobile device location data offer a low-cost alternative for measuring visitation to outdoor recreation sites and are known to correlate with official visitation counts. Less is known about whether these data can recover recreation demand and consumer surplus comparable to surveybased methods. We compare travel cost models estimated using mobile device and survey data for 17 U.S. National Park Service sites. Results are mixed. We examine the roles of aggregation and sampling bias and use LASSO regression to assess whether sample and site characteristics explain discrepancies.

conterminous United States↗

Accumulation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and their association with immune parameters in nestling ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) from Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, USA

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a class of widespread, environmentally persistent compounds that pose a potential threat to wildlife and human health. Despite recent efforts to reduce the use of long-chain PFAS in industrial practices and commercial/consumer products, the persistence and solubility of PFAS have led to their detection in wildlife on a global scale. Osprey ( Pandion haliaetus ) have long been used as a sentinel species with an extensive history of serving as an effective bioindicator of contamination. Here we report on a large-scale evaluation of PFAS and potential health effects in osprey from the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, USA. In 2011 and 2015, we collected plasma samples from osprey nestlings throughout the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay watersheds. We quantified 40 PFAS congeners in osprey plasma via liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and analyzed plasma for indicators of immune and thyroid function, and plasma biochemistry. In all birds, perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) was the most commonly detected PFAS, followed by perfluoroundecanoic acid, (PFUnA) and perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA). In nestling plasma from Chesapeake Bay, PFOS tended to be a higher average contributor to PFAS profiles compared to samples from Delaware Bay. In contrast, long-chain perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) such as PFUnA and PFDA comprised larger percentages of total PFAS in osprey plasma from Delaware Bay relative to Chesapeake Bay. While some PFAS concentrations were associated with plasma health indicators, the proportion of variation explained was low. Overall, our study provides a more thorough understanding of PFAS presence in the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays and is one of the first to examine whether PFAS exposure is associated with adverse health effects in wildlife.

Chesapeake and Delaware Bays↗

Density dependence and habitat selection affect overwintering abundance of monarch butterflies at regional and site scales in California

The monarch butterfly ( Danaus plexippus ) is a species of iconic cultural interest. Thanks to annual overwintering monarch counts at hundreds of locations in coastal California, we are able to track fluctuations with high temporal and spatial resolution. Between 1997 and 2024, monarch populations at overwintering sites in the western United States experienced severe dips, at times (2018–2020, 2023–2024) giving the appearance of a population collapse. From 2018 to present, the Pismo State Beach Overwintering Monarch Grove has conducted multiple counts during overwintering and geolocated counts of individual monarch clusters to specific trees within the site. This study determined how annual monarch population variability is influenced by both climate and prior year population density at the state, region, and overwintering-site scale. Furthermore, through a machine-learning process, we investigated how overwintering site configuration and structure drive monarch winter space-use dynamics within the Pismo Beach site. Our approach found monarchs exhibit a preference for specific overwintering sites in California, and that 64% of annual variability of counts across sites can be explained by climate and density dependence, with density dependence explaining 50% of total variability. Within the site we found very little regional climate effect, but individual trees, tree size, distance to boundary, and the amount of shade were all strong indicators of monarch presence. Additionally, only 11 out of 320 trees at the Pismo Beach site accounted for 83.6% of all counts over 6 years, highlighting how monarchs use specific trees and how tree structure may create preferred microclimates for clustering.

California↗

Transit time modeling framework for predicting freshwater salinization in urban catchments

The salinity of inland freshwaters is rising globally, particularly in urban watersheds where winter road deicers are widely applied. Attributing stream salinity dynamics to specific sources and transport pathways remains challenging due to episodic salt inputs, engineered drainage, and strong coupling between hydrology and subsurface storage. We present a modeling framework that couples climate-driven deicer build-up and wash-off with transient transit time distribution theory to simulate salt transport through drainage, interflow, and groundwater pathways. Applied to an urban watershed in Northern Virginia (USA), the model reproduces ten years of high-frequency stream salinity measurements across daily-to-decadal timescales. The calibrated model implies an average deicer application of 206 tonnes Cl −1 yr −1 , or roughly one 20 kg bag of rock salt person −1 yr −1 when normalized by the 20,000 people living in the watershed. In winter months, higher infiltration routes a large fraction of snowmelt and deicers into shallow subsurface pathways, enhancing vadose-zone and interflow contributions to stream salinity. Limited subsurface storage capacity and seasonal hydrologic turnover flush excess chloride from the vadose zone and groundwater during subsequent summer storms. By linking climate-driven deicer inputs, hydrologic connectivity, and stream water age, the framework provides a transferable basis for diagnosing and managing freshwater salinization in urban watersheds.

Virginia↗

Scenarios and strategies for future-proofing ecosystem management under climatic novelty

Climate change is driving unprecedented declines in dominant, habitat-forming foundation species across marine and terrestrial ecosystems globally. As climatic novelty becomes the norm, ecosystem reassembly will become increasingly common. Predicting and understanding these transitions, and their implications for future ecosystem functioning, is essential for designing effective forward-looking management strategies. We explored 3 scenarios that describe a range of ecosystem reassembly trajectories following declines in previously dominant habitat-forming taxa: compensation, in which functionally similar subdominant or immigrating taxa maintain ecosystem structure and function; decline, in which no compensation occurs leading to loss of ecosystem structure and function; and transformation, in which the ecosystem present historically can no longer persist and shifts into a fundamentally different ecosystem type with distinct structure and function. This range of potential outcomes highlights the urgent need to assess the ecological feasibility and functional implications of potential management actions. Scientists and managers can work together to quantify local-scale climatic novelty and ecosystem resilience to better predict the most likely reassembly trajectories and identify management interventions that will optimize ecosystem function. This approach would allow for more proactive planning to support persistence of ecosystem structure and function, helping to future-proof ecosystem management in a rapidly changing world.

Conservation Biology↗

Alternative future vegetation pathways reveal potential transformations of western US ecosystems

Managing ecosystems in an era of rapid change is inherently challenging not only because of uncertainty in future climate but also due to diverse responses of ecosystems to climate. Projections of ecological transformation alongside information about plausible vegetation trajectories can help land managers explore divergent scenarios and consider how modeled outcomes match their observations. Climate-analog impact models (AIMs) compare environmental information (e.g., vegetation types) between sets of climatically similar locations to infer change and can be used to identify multiple outcomes. We used AIMs to project changes in vegetation across the western United States under a mid-21st century climate scenario, characterize ecological transformation vulnerability based on projection divergence, and demonstrate how AIMs can inform decision-making. We projected high or very high vulnerability to ecological transformation across 29% of the western US, nearly 1 M km 2 . Vulnerability varied among vegetation groups; 75% of alpine vegetation had high or very high vulnerability vs. 6% of desert scrub. We estimate that 9% of the study area faces a high likelihood of transformation based on combined measures of vulnerability and projection agreement. Transformation at the vegetation type ( n = 50) level is projected for 40% (1.4 M km 2 ) of the study area, based on primary projections. As vegetation shifts towards types supported by a more arid climate, forested area is expected to contract by 9% and subalpine forests specifically by 54%. Elsewhere, vulnerability is low or trajectories are uncertain, implying opportunities for managers to intervene. Dry forests, for example, could be stabilized through vegetation management and intentional fire use. Our findings suggest likely ecological transformations with significant downstream consequences for ecosystem services and natural resources. They are best used within decision-making frameworks that draw on multiple lines of evidence including local expertise and complementary knowledge systems.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

Erratum to earthquake recurrence estimates for northern Caribbean faults from combinatorial optimization

In the original article (ten Brink and Geist, 2025), we derived on‐fault magnitude–frequency relationships with uncertainties from a combinatorial optimization method that assigns individual earthquakes from a regional catalog to the different faults. Our model used a magnitude versus area relationship from Shaw (2023). His relationship was published with an error, M=f(1/√A)⁠, instead of M=f(1/A) (Shaw, 2025). Here, we recalculate the magnitude–frequency relationship with uncertainties using the Shaw (2025) corrected formula. The remaining parameters of the model, the model itself, and the number of repeated optimization runs have not changed. Figures 1 and 2 show the corrected results and replace figures 3 and 4 in the original article.

The Seismic Record↗

Water use permits as of July 2024 and reported water use near the North Unit of Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, 1980–2023

Starting in the early 2000s, increasing oil and gas development in western North Dakota created a need for additional water resources from surface-water and groundwater sources near the North Unit of Theodore Roosevelt National Park. To summarize the use of water in that area, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed a map of surface-water and groundwater resources, aquifers, and water-use diversions, and plotted water-use trends from 1980 to 2023. Reported water used from permits in the map area has more than doubled since 2020, increasing from about 750 acre-feet in 2020 to about 2,300 acre-feet in 2022 and 2,000 acre-feet in 2023. Surface water provided the primary source of reported water used for the study period with an average of about 410 acre-feet per year from 1980 through 2017 and about 1,330 acre-feet per year from 2018 through 2023. After 2011, groundwater sourced from the Little Missouri River, Tobacco Garden Creek, Fox Hills, Fort Union, and Dakota aquifers became a larger portion of total annual reported water use from permits in the map area. From 1980 through 2015, water use for irrigation averaged 86 percent of the total annual reported surface-water and groundwater use in the map area. Starting in 2011, however, industrial uses became a proportionally larger total use of water, and in 2015, became the highest reported volume of water use in the map area. From 2011 to 2023, industrial use designated for water depots increased from 50 acre-feet to about 1,370 acre-feet, accounting for about 70 percent of total reported water use in the map area in 2023.

North Dakota↗

Seasonal and hydrologic variation influences habitat and functional structure of stream fish assemblages

Introduction: Hydrologic variability is a key driver of ecological structure in lotic systems, shaping habitat conditions, taxonomic diversity, and the functional traits that mediate species’ persistence and performance (e.g., reproductive success). While many studies examine taxonomic responses to variation in flows, few evaluate how spatiotemporal hydrologic variation influences the functional organization within stream fish communities. Methods: We quantified seasonal habitat structure and functional trait diversity of fish assemblages across six Ozark Plateau headwater streams representing two contrasting flow regimes: Groundwater Flashy and Runoff/Intermittent Flashy. Fish and habitat data were collected seasonally during a dry year (2002) and a wet year (2003). Functional space was constructed using PCoA of morphological, ecological, and life-history traits, and functional diversity was measured using community weighted means (CWMs), functional richness (FRic), functional evenness (FEve), and functional divergence (FDiv). Results: We found that habitat structure differed strongly by flow regime and season, with Runoff/Intermittent streams exhibiting pronounced reductions in depth, area, and velocity, while groundwater streams remained structurally stable. Functional identity of assemblages was similar across flow regimes, dominated by benthic, hydrodynamic taxa with opportunistic and periodic life-history strategies. However, functional structure differed significantly: FEve and FDiv were consistently lower in Runoff/Intermittent Flashy streams in both years, indicating assemblage dominance of species with similar trait combinations and reduced trait partitioning under variable flow. FRic and taxonomic richness remained stable across seasons and flow regimes, suggesting high functional redundancy despite species turnover. Discussion: Together, results show that flow regime mediates both habitat structural stability and functional organization. As climatic warming and extreme drought increase hydrologic instability in headwaters, functional trait approaches provide a sensitive tool for detecting losses of functional roles that may not be evident by using taxonomic metrics alone.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗