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USGS2026

Ground-motion characterization for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

We develop the ground-motion characterization (GMC) for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (NSHM-PRVI) for earthquakes in active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab regimes. Using ground-motion models (GMMs) from the Next-Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 and NGA-Subduction projects, the GMC is parameterized by scaled-backbone models for median ground motions and by independent logic trees of aleatory variability. We introduce several novel GMC features into the U.S. NSHM: (1) use of regional ground-motion data for modeling median ground motions; (2) development of scaled-backbone models for median ground motions; and (3) development of independent logic trees of aleatory variability from variance components of GMMs and computed from multiple ground-motion datasets, and incorporating regional ground-motion data effects on variability. We compute probabilistic seismic hazard curves and maps to evaluate the contributions from the GMC components and for comparison with the 2003 GMC. Contributions of the GMC to epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard are evaluated through spatial variations in epistemic uncertainty in hazard maps, comparisons between mean hazard curves and fractiles, as well as investigations of the contributions of logic-tree branches to hazard maps and curves. Comparisons between seismic hazard from the 2025 and 2003 GMCs allow examination of the changes in hazard curves and mapped values with 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The 2025 GMC exhibits modest changes in median predictions, relative to the 2003 GMC; overall, values of aleatory variability are higher, except at long periods ( ), resulting in changes to probabilistic ground motions at low probabilities of exceedance (<10% probability of exceedance in 50 years). Changes in hazard at 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years are also relatively modest (within 20%) at most sites, with the impacts from the 2025 GMC exhibiting minor reductions and increases at 0.2 and 1.0 s periods, respectively, relative to the 2003 GMC.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

USGS2026

Late Miocene Colorado River arrival in the Bidahochi basin supports spillover origin of Grand Canyon

The timing and mechanism of the integration of the Colorado River and incision of the Grand Canyon remain among geology’s enduring controversies. A key question is the configuration of the upper Colorado River watershed between 11 and 6 million years ago. In this study, we present new evidence from zircon uranium-lead geochronology for the arrival of distinctive Colorado–Green River sediment in the Bidahochi basin by 6.6 million years ago derived from the Browns Park Formation. This is coeval with an order-of-magnitude increase in depositional rate, an increase in carbonate strontium isotope ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) ratios, the appearance of large fish species characteristic of fast-flowing waters, and other sedimentological changes. This evidence is consistent with the Colorado River supplying water and sediment to the Bidahochi basin before spillover integration of the river through the Grand Canyon.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2026

Characterizing changes in postfire debris-flow hazard as burned areas recover

Emergency assessments of postfire debris-flow hazards that are performed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide estimates of debris-flow likelihood and rainfall triggering conditions that are used for evaluating and managing runoff-generated debris-flow hazards in recently burned areas throughout the western United States. Although the immediate postfire period, within roughly one year after fire, is typically the most susceptible to runoff-generated debris flows, the hazard evolves in time and space as the burned area recovers. The recovery trajectory a given burned area will take depends on local climate and weather and can be difficult to predict. Some burned areas recover quickly, whereas others experience debris flows for multiple years after fire. As a result, extending our ability to update debris-flow likelihood estimates and rainfall thresholds based on observed recovery of the burned area would be beneficial. We present a method for multi-year runoff-generated debris-flow hazard assessment that leverages the USGS “M1” debris-flow likelihood model and integrates updated, satellite-derived, normalized burn ratio data to estimate vegetation recovery. We predict recovery-aware rainfall thresholds and validate them against a multi-year debris-flow hazard prediction and could be adapted for use with other debris-flow models that incorporate burn severity data.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Washing↗

USGS2026

Size of modern megafire not unprecedented and a cumulative fire deficit persists

Background The area burned by wildfires in western North American forests has grown since the 1980s, largely driven by individual “megafires.” Despite breaking state records for fire size, it remains uncertain whether these large fires are unprecedented, owing to limited knowledge of the area burned during historical fire regimes (pre-1900). We used new methods and 14 tree-ring fire-scar sites to evaluate whether the area burned by Arizona’s largest fire on record – the 217,741 ha 2011 Wallow Fire – was unprecedented in a multi-century context. Using the 375-year reconstruction of annual area burned, we also assessed the departure of the modern fire regime by introducing cumulative fire deficit, calculated as the cumulative sum of 20-year area burned anomalies. Results The size of the Wallow Fire was exceptional in the modern era, but comparable to the extent of burning in 1748, 1847, and 1851 on the same landscape. Notably, years of extensive fire (50,000–100,000 ha) were common on this landscape prior to 1900. The average return interval for fires exceeding 100,000 ha was just 20 years. By contrast, the 2011 Wallow Fire was the only modern fire > 10,000 ha in our study area ( n = 129, 1970–2024), leading to an 85% reduction in average annual area burned. This exceptional departure from the historical fire regime generated a cumulative fire deficit exceeding 2.0 million hectares by 2011, which continues to increase despite the occurrence of the large Wallow Fire. Conclusions Although the modern wildfire crisis is characterized by large, severe wildfires, historical fire regimes also included extensive fires. On an Arizona landscape, the sizes of several historical fires were on par with the largest wildfire on record. Similar historical precedent of large fires is likely true elsewhere in dry conifer forests of western North America. These findings underscore that future wildfire events could be even larger, and likely more severe, as fuels accumulate and the climate grows warmer and drier. Forest restoration aimed at reestablishing characteristic disturbance regimes, including frequent, large, low-severity fires, could be used to assist recovery of these ecosystems resulting from the cumulative fire deficit.

Arizona↗

USGS2026

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis based on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore indicates that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system because of local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have altered groundwater flow from predevelopment conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers is a relatively small part of the total groundwater budget for the aquifer system compared to the rate of recharge at the land surface. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model indicate that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal waterbodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2023, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. For the most recent simulated conditions (2023) downward groundwater flow continues, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, rates of downward flow are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, even though that was not measured in this study. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, indicate that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up more than 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. For the most recent simulated period (2023), estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The reported withdrawal rate for this period from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Virginia Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and low rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

Virginia↗

USGS2026

Historical ice jams and associated environmental conditions on Osoyoos Lake

Ice jams occur regularly at the southern outlet of Osoyoos Lake, which spans the border between the State of Washington and British Columbia, Canada. In recent winters, ice jams caused (1) decreases in downstream discharge that may adversely affect salmon spawning habitat and (2) short-duration lake-level rise that can interfere with lake level management agreements. In response, water managers sought to understand the environmental conditions associated with the historical ice-jam occurrences on Osoyoos Lake. Researchers compiled datasets of discharge, lake level, and air temperature from four meteorological and three hydrologic stations near Oroville, Washington, to determine “ice-jam” or “non-ice-jam” days from 1942 to 2024. After confirming known ice jams since 1994 using Landsat 8–9 and Sentinel–2 satellite imagery along with discharge, lake level, and air temperature data, researchers designated ice-jam days. They conducted statistical analyses to examine environmental conditions associated with ice-jam occurrences on Osoyoos Lake. Statistical tests indicated significant differences in wind speed, wind direction, and air temperature between ice-jam and non-ice-jam days. A linear discriminant-analysis model correctly predicted 12 of 13 historical ice-jam days since 1994 and determined that ice jams are more likely under westerly and northwesterly winds near or above 10 kilometers per hour (km/h) and minimum temperatures near or below –9.4 degrees Celsius (°C). An analysis of historical discharge suggests that ice jams have occurred since at least the 1940s, but 13 ice jam days occurred in the past decade (2014–2024), exceeding any previous decade. The daily minimum air temperature in the Osoyoos Lake region has increased at a rate of 0.021 °C per year since the 1940s, but ice jams usually occur in winters with colder average temperatures.

British Columbia, Washington↗

USGS2026

The damability function: A probabilistic approach to regional landslide dam susceptibility analysis applied to the Oregon Coast Range, USA

Landslides can dam rivers and require rapid response to mitigate catastrophic outburst floods. Here, we present a workflow to map landslide dam formation susceptibility at a regional scale. We define a probabilistic function that combines river valley width and landslide volume to efficiently determine the likelihood of a landslide dam or “damability”. We combine damability values with landslide susceptibility to estimate landslide dam susceptibility. The valley width measurements are automated using a new elevation threshold-based algorithm. Landslide volume is represented as a statistical distribution from mapped landslides. We validate and apply our approach to the Oregon Coast Range, USA and find that 36 % of river stretches exceed a dam potential threshold; these are in river headwaters and steeper terrain, which in this case correlate with more resistant lithologies. We also estimate volumes of the potential dammed lakes and find that most rivers with high dam susceptibility are less likely to impound large lakes because they have low drainage areas. However, widespread susceptibility, and the potential impacts from exceptionally large landslides, suggest that this hazard should be considered in the Pacific Northwest. The damability function workflow can ingest new data and be applied more broadly to assess future landslide dam hazards.

Oregon↗

USGS2026

Logical data model for hydrographic data based on HY_Features concepts

This report describes background and design of the “hydrofabric data model” which defines logic for implementation of data schemas and software that deals with hydrologic geospatial data. As a “logical” data model, the hydrofabric data model specifies details necessary to support compatibility of data and software that satisfy diverse needs without unnecessarily restricting implementation details. The logic presented in this report is based on concepts defined in WaterML2 Part 3 Surface Hydrology Features Concepts and is designed to serve the needs of a range of hydroscience use cases. Development of international community standards applicable to hydrofabrics began, prompted by the World Meteorological Organization Commission for Hydrology, in 2012 [5] . More than 10 years later, this report documents one aspect of a long-term research and development activity that traces its roots back that far. This report describes terminology, use cases, and background as context preceding presentation of the logical model and discussion of its design. Three appendices document related data models, an example encoding of the hydrofabric data model, and an artificial schematic and tabular data example. The sections of the report can be accessed in the Clause 5 section.

OCG Public Engineering Report↗

USGS2026

Poor population recovery of Lake Washington Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in Pacific Northwestern USA may be associated with disease caused by Ceratonova shasta in an urban-influenced watershed

Understanding the effects of anthropogenic changes on fish disease is vital for supporting mitigative actions for fisheries population recovery. The Lake Washington watershed in the Pacific Northwestern United States is influenced by high urban development and climate change, compromising the sustainability of anadromous salmon. We investigated Ceratonova shasta , a myxozoan parasite, in Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha to determine the impacts of C. shasta -induced enteronecrosis during salmon freshwater migrations within this watershed. All sampled adult Chinook Salmon returning to an enhancement hatchery to spawn were infected with genotype I C. shasta with a high prevalence of severe enteritis and enteronecrosis. Parasite loads and associated pathology were more severe in adult fish succumbing to prespawn mortality than in fish that spawned. Natural prespawn mortality of Chinook Salmon in the Cedar River was also associated with high C. shasta loads. Sentinel exposure studies with Chinook Salmon juveniles in the spring and fall demonstrated high levels of C. shasta genotype II actinospores in the Lake Washington Ship Canal, a human engineered canal that salmon must traverse in their freshwater migrations from the Puget Sound. The sentinel juvenile Chinook Salmon succumbed to clinical disease and high mortality from genotype II C. shasta , suggesting that these stocks have high susceptibility to this genotype. The results show that both genotypes I and II pose disease risks to adult and juvenile stages of Chinook Salmon in the watershed, and that the Lake Washington Ship Canal could be a C. shasta ‘hot spot’ for genotype II that may increase disease risk for juveniles during smolt emigration.

Washington↗

USGS2026

Artificial intelligence with earth observations provides continuous streamflow data across varying wildfire recurrence and recovery scenarios

Wildfires continue to alter watershed hydrology globally. Numerous studies have analyzed post-fire hydrology through before- and after-fire comparisons—often focusing on a single fire event. This has led to a significant gap in research, where continuous, daily streamflow data are needed to capture both the short- and long-term effects of recurring fires. Our study, for the first time, demonstrates how Artificial Intelligence (AI) through Machine Learning/Deep Learning (ML/DL) models can fill this gap by harnessing Earth Observations of burn severity, fire radiative power, and burn dates alongside traditional watershed attributes and drought indicators. We present a highly efficient DL model based on the Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) algorithm that is both reproducible and generalizable across multiple fire-affected watersheds in the western United States. Despite watersheds’ diverse climate conditions and markedly different hydrologic characteristics, the model consistently achieves strong performance, with Kling Gupta Efficiency ranging between 0.7 and 0.9. Our primary contribution is testing the model at a daily time-scale to model three distinct fire scenarios: no significant fire history yet the occurrence of a large fire, a longer return interval and no-fire period between phases of recurring fires, and frequent and repeated fire activity. We further investigate whether a relatively simple ML model such as Support Vector Machine (SVM) can achieve comparable accuracy in capturing these complex post-fire scenarios. By offering this fully open-source, generalizable AI solution powered by Earth Observations, newer and better modeling tools can provide post-fire daily streamflow data—a step in the right direction to safeguard water supply reliability and support watershed management across fire-prone regions worldwide.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2026

Hydrological control on soil redox condition and carbon loss of coastal wetland under sea-kevel rise

Coastal wetlands are critical carbon sinks with their biogeochemical and ecological functioning shaped by dynamic hydrological conditions that are increasingly influenced by climate change. A key unresolved question is how hydrologic flow, vegetation response, and rising sea levels interact to regulate soil redox condition and carbon loss in coastal wetlands. Using a field-tested hydrological–biogeochemical–ecological modeling framework, we reveal how the interplay between terrestrial groundwater discharge and tidal fluctuations generates complex groundwater flow patterns at the terrestrial–aquatic interface, and how these patterns modulate soil redox conditions, in turn influencing soil organic matter decomposition and carbon loss. Notably, rising sea levels suppress soil CO 2 emissions while reducing lateral dissolved carbon losses, thereby enhancing litter carbon sequestration under anoxic conditions. As vegetation responds to sea-level rise and carbon inputs diminish, litter carbon subsequently declines. These findings underscore a critical hydrological control on carbon cycling, advancing our understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience in a warming world.

Louisiana↗

USGS2026

Rapid expansion of genotype D1.1 A(H5N1) influenza viruses in wild birds across North America during the 2024 migratory season

In late 2021, high pathogenicity avian influenza A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b viruses entered North America and reassorted rapidly with local avian influenza viruses. In September 2024, we detected a new reassortant later classified as genotype D1.1. Using active and passive avian influenza surveillance across Canada and the USA, we tracked the emergence and rapid spread of D1.1 viruses in wild birds during the 2024 fall migration. Phylodynamic analysis showed that D1.1 viruses formed a monophyletic group and displaced earlier A(H5) genotypes across several flyways. Their expansion coincided with detections in other hosts, including 17 human cases, 4 of which were severe or fatal. None of the mammalian-adaptive markers detected in human cases were found in wild bird viruses, and candidate vaccine viruses retained antigenic cross-reactivity with D1.1 strains.

Nature medicine↗

USGS2026

Overstorey mortality promotes juvenile piñon pine growth during favourable weather at cooler, wetter sites

Hotter droughts have resulted in widespread tree die-off events globally, frequently leading to regeneration failure. Dry forest recovery often depends on the growth and survival of extant juvenile trees. However, it is unclear how microenvironmental changes following overstorey tree die-off affect juvenile trees, particularly in dryland systems where tree recruitment is typically limited by water availability and heat stress. We simulated an overstorey tree die-off event by girdling trees in piñon-juniper woodlands across the south-western United States. We sampled juvenile piñon pine growth from live and dead overstorey treatments across six study sites spanning a regional latitudinal gradient and local elevational gradients. We examined how juvenile branch and needle growth differed between live and dead overstorey treatments, and whether responses varied with weather conditions and juvenile tree size following overstorey mortality. We found greater juvenile branch and needle growth under dead compared with live overstorey trees for 2 years following overstorey mortality at mid- and high-elevation sites which are typically cooler and wetter than the other sites. These observed growth releases were contingent on favourable post-mortality weather conditions. Higher growth under dead overstorey occurred at sites experiencing near-average climatic water deficits compared with sites experiencing above-average climatic water deficits. Growth at all sites increased from the first to second year after overstorey mortality. Across sites, growth was unrelated to juvenile tree size. Synthesis . Our results underscore differentiation in juvenile responses to overstorey tree die-off driven by local site conditions and weather across the range of Pinus edulis . Overstorey mortality resulted in consistently higher juvenile growth only at climatically favourable sites and during favourable weather, while unmeasured microsite differences could help account for variation observed at the hottest and driest site. Results from less climatically favourable sites suggest that overstorey trees neither directly limit nor facilitate juvenile growth, though further study over longer timeframes is needed to resolve the pace and magnitude of potential recovery or decline. Overall, juvenile vigour may be promoted following overstorey mortality only in a narrow spatial (site) and temporal (weather) environmental context, suggesting additional vulnerabilities for piñon populations under more arid conditions.

Arizona, Colorado↗

USGS2026

Cenozoic distributed volcanism of the Arabia Plate—A review

Cenozoic volcanic rocks of the Arabia Plate cover about 140,000 square kilometers across a distance of about 3,000 kilometers from southern Yemen to southeastern Turkey. The majority of volcanic products are alkali basalts that erupted in restricted areas, commonly over periods of a million or more years, building mafic lava fields, each known in Arabic as a “harrat.” Harrat volcanism commenced following the Oligocene flood-lava effusions that blanketed the (now) Ethiopian highlands, southern Sudan, and western Yemen, and overlapped the latest Oligocene to early Miocene initial riftings of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, but the majority of harrat volcanism has been since approximately 13–10 million years ago. Persistent harrat magmatism in restricted locations led to the development of intermediate and evolved magmas (hawaiites, mugearites, benmoreites, trachytes, comendites, and phonolites) mainly through intracrustal crystallization-differentiation. Most of these intermediate and evolved magmas erupt at sites of the greatest aggregate volcanic relief, reflecting sites of the greatest overall magmatic fluxes. Production of fractionated magmas at these sites negates “monogenetic” as an appropriate descriptor of harrat volcanism. This chapter summarizes the geologic, eruptive, and tectonic history and aspects of the petrogenesis of the Cenozoic Arabian alkalic province. Particular emphasis is placed on results of a joint study of Ḩarrat Rahat adjacent to the city of Al Madīnah al Munawwarah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, published as U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1862 and Saudi Geological Survey Special Report SGS–SP–2021–1. A goal of this chapter is to provide an introduction to those unfamiliar with this vast, enigmatic, and fascinating region of distributed continental volcanism.

Arabia Plate↗

USGS2026

Analyses of meteorological and hydrological records support Tribal members’ accounts of changing climate on the Fort Apache Reservation, east–central Arizona

The Fort Apache Reservation in east–central Arizona, home to the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, contains several climate zones because of the large variation in surface elevation within the reservation. This study was carried out in cooperation with the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, to raise awareness of how the changing climate affects the Fort Apache Reservation. This report documents the evaluation of existing multidecadal meteorological and hydrological datasets for the Fort Apache Reservation, used to evaluate the effects of a changing climate on the reservation. In this evaluation, near-surface air temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent, precipitation, and streamflow datasets were analyzed for monotonic trends indicative of changing climatic conditions during specified periods of time. The results of these trend analyses were then compared with the Tribal community's memories of the changing climate. Trend analysis of near-surface air temperatures from a U.S. Historical Climatological Network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at Whiteriver, Arizona, indicated that mean annual air temperatures have increased by an average of 2.48 degrees Fahrenheit from 1980 to 2023. Records from the same station also indicated that average monthly maximum temperatures recorded for March increased by 5.39 degrees Fahrenheit for the same time period. Annual precipitation at the five precipitation stations used in this study decreased greatly from the 1980s to 2023. The largest total decrease was 10.07 inches, or 34.7 percent. However, only one of the two precipitation stations with longer term data available prior to 1980 had a significant negative trend when data from the entire period of record, from 1901 to 2023, were analyzed. Trend analyses show a decrease in the annual maximum snow water equivalent and an earlier disappearance of the snowpack at two Natural Resources Conservation Service snow telemetry stations in the mountainous region just east of the Fort Apache Reservation from 1981 to 2023. Based on the trend analyses, the average annual maximum snow water equivalent has decreased by more than 40 percent at both stations, and the average date when the snowpack was fully melted at the stations in the spring has moved earlier in time from late April to early April or late March. However, a statistically significant trend was not determined for the early April snow water equivalent measured at a nearby Natural Resources Conservation Service snow course across its period of record, indicating that the history of mountain snowpack in this area is not fully understood. Analysis of snowfall data from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Cooperative Observer Program network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at McNary 2N, AZ (station 025412) indicated that, on average, the measured total annual snowfall at the station decreased 42.4 percent from 1935 to 2023. Streamflow data from six U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on the Fort Apache Reservation were analyzed for trends. For most streamflow gages, statistically significant trends were not determined for tested parameters when the entire streamflow period of record was used for stations with records going back to at least the 1960s. However, when the data from 1980 to 2023 was tested, most of the streamflow parameters had statistically significant negative trends. All six streamgages showed a decrease in average annual runoff of at least 50 percent from 1980 to 2023; one streamgage showed an 81.8 percent decrease. A similar statistical finding was observed in the analysis of the annual spring snowmelt peak from one of the six streamgages used in the study and located in an area receiving measurable amounts of snowmelt runoff. When data from the entire period of record (1958–2023) was used, no trend in streamflow was determined; however, a significant negative trend was determined from 1980 to 2023, indicating a decrease in average annual springtime runoff of 62.6 percent. Statistical analysis on the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak at the same streamgage indicated the snowmelt peak is happening on average about 12 days earlier now (2023) than it did in the past. The trend results for the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak were the same and statistically significant for both periods tested (1958–2023 and 1980–2023). Two of the streamflow records from the Fort Apache Reservation were compared to the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index computed for Arizona Climate Division 4 (East Central) by the National Centers for Environmental Information. The comparison showed that the streamflow records generally tracked the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. In interviews, Tribal community members living on the Fort Apache Reservation described the changes in climate that they observed during their lifetimes. Common themes reported were that air temperatures have become warmer, and the weather is less predictable with changes in seasonal patterns. Drier conditions, lower snowfall, shorter winters, and lower river levels were also reported. These community member observations align with the results of this study.

Arizona↗

USGS2026

Agency approach to allocation of human capital and program composition for human-marine mammal interaction management in the United States

Introduction: Marine mammals have served important and diverse roles throughout human history. Once exploited to near extinction, many species in the United States (U.S.) have recovered dramatically under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). The U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has jurisdiction to administer the MMPA for cetaceans and most pinnipeds. While most take is now prohibited, NMFS still dedicates significant time and resources to protecting and conserving marine mammals. As human populations continue to grow and exploit marine environments, opportunities for human-marine mammal interactions (HMMI) have increased. Resources may fail to keep up with growing needs for conservation investments, so that many agencies struggle to adequately meet social and legal requirements. Methods: This study evaluated NMFS’ approach to addressing HMMI through a mixed-methods (semi-structured interviews, quantitative questionnaire, and facilitated workshops) expert elicitation analysis of resource allocation (i.e., staff time) and priorities of NMFS Science Center (SC) and Regional Office (RO) staff across five geographic regions to understand how employee time is allocated, the degree to which employee time allocation is aligned with self-reported job descriptions, and employee perceptions of actions or investments which would improve their ability to mitigate HMMI. Results and Discussion: SC staff reported spending more time on Biological and Administrative tasks , while RO staff allocated more time to Policy, Social science , and Outreach tasks . SC employees spent less time on Biological tasks than specified by their perceived job descriptions, suggesting resource constraints. Participants identified Biological research and monitoring as top priorities, followed by Policy tasks . Identified actions included increasing research capacity, enhancing enforcement, expanding social science expertise, and improving outreach programs. The study reveals mismatches between mandated activities and available resources, suggesting strategic reallocation or increased funding may benefit the agency in effectively addressing growing HMMI challenges.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2026

The influence of riparian zone grazing on channel stability in an arroyo

The introduction of large herds of domesticated grazing animals by European immigrants in the late 19th century is one primary hypothesis used to explain the initiation of arroyo cutting in the American West. But studies designed to quantify the effects of grazing on watershed hydrology and sedimentation have had conflicting results that are often scale dependent. We used a before-and-after study design to examine effects of changes in cattle grazing practices on channel stability in Muddy Creek, an arroyo in the Colorado River headwaters. We digitized 620 meander loop cutoff geometries in the alluvial bottom of Muddy Creek and used meander loop cutoff rate as a broad measure of channel stability. Poisson regression modeling indicated that the change in grazing practices caused an order-of-magnitude decrease in meander loop cutoff rate that was independent of other forcings. Repeat measurements of channel geometry showed a decline in bankfull channel width of about 40% after the changes were implemented. Increases in riparian vegetation density are deduced to be the primary mechanism for the increase in channel stability. Prior to the changes in grazing practices, at least one meander loop cutoff occurred each year, some of which were large enough to create headcuts that scale with the depth of downcutting in this arroyo system. Our analysis demonstrates the profound effects that different grazing practices have on channel stability in headwater arroyo systems, and the potential for grazing animals to initiate a cascade of sediment yields to receiving stream networks.

Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2026

Predicted range shifts of non‐native grasses in response to climate change are influenced by photosynthetic pathway: A case study in the Hawaiian Islands

Aim Grasses comprise three main photosynthetic pathway variants (C 3 -BOP, C 3 -PACMAD and C 4 -PACMAD hereafter referred to as C 4 ). We sought to confirm climate niche differences among these photosynthetic pathway variants and assessed whether predicted non-native grass range shift patterns with climate change differ among photosynthetic pathway variants. Location Hawaiian Islands. Methods We used a species distribution modelling (SDM) approach that uses global occurrence records to inform local SDM based on local (Hawaiian Islands) occurrences. We compared climate niches and projected climate-driven range shifts, assuming moderate climate change (RCP 4.5, end of century), among 22 non-native grasses representing C 3 -BOP, C 3 -PACMAD and C 4 photosynthetic pathway variants. Results C 4 grasses exhibited the warmest temperature niches on average, but did not differ substantially in rainfall niche versus C 3 -BOP grasses. C 3 -PACMAD species averaged high suitability across a broad range of temperatures and rainfall conditions, except extreme aridity. In response to projected climate change, C 4 grasses had projected range increases. C 3 -BOP grasses typically responded with net range decreases, while C 3 -PACMAD grasses had variable range responses. However, patterns were contingent on elevation: for instance, the projected expansion of C 4 grasses was generally limited to elevations below 2000 m, with the largest increases in areas up to ~750 m. Areas of greatest reduction for C 3 -BOP and C 3 -PACMAD were projected at 750–1900 m and 100–1100 m elevation, respectively. Above 2000 m, range increases were projected for both C 3 grass variants. Main Conclusions Our projections suggest that non-native C 4 grasses pose the greatest risk for increasing spread and impacts under RCP 4.5, while certain C 3 -PACMAD grasses may endanger valuable high-elevation habitats. Photosynthetic pathway may be a useful component of weed risk assessment to evaluate how species may respond to climate change as similar range response patterns may be expected for other non-native grasses in other tropical and subtropical regions.

Hawaii↗