Geology topics

Yan Li

Publications and source records attributed to Yan Li.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

A framework for assessing the ability to detect macroscale effects on fish growth

Various abiotic and biotic factors affect fish and their habitats at macroscales. For example, changes in global temperatures will likely alter demographic rates, including growth. However, to date, there is no statistical framework for assessing the ability to detect macroscale effects on fish growth under different sampling scenarios. We provide a generalized framework for calculating the frequentist and Bayesian power of detecting macroscale effects on fish growth. We illustrate this framework for a range of sampling scenarios that varied in the number of fish sampled per lake, the number of lakes sampled, and the magnitude of the temperature effect on growth for two case study species. However, the framework can be adapted to investigate other species, sampling scenarios, and environmental drivers. The ability to detect macroscale effects was more affected by the number of lakes sampled rather than the number of fish sampled from each lake. Confidently detecting macroscale effects likely requires sampling hundreds of lakes. This was true for both case study species, despite different life histories and extents of spatial variability in growth.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2021

Do lake-specific characteristics mediate the temporal relationship between walleye growth and warming water temperatures?

Walleye ( Sander vitreus ) population declines have been linked to climate change, but it is unclear how the growth of this cool-water species may be affected by warming water temperatures. Because warming rates vary among lakes, it is uncertain whether lake characteristics may mediate the temperature effects on walleye growth or may vary as a result of differences in lake habitat or productivity. In this study, we ( i ) quantified walleye annual growth from 1983 to 2015 in 61 lakes in midwestern United States; ( ii ) estimated the relationship between annual early life growth ( ω ; mm·year –1 ) and water growing degree days (GDD); and ( iii ) identified lake characteristics affecting log e ( ω )–GDD relationships. On average, ω estimates significantly increased with increasing GDD; however, this relationship varied in direction and magnitude among lakes. We estimated an 84% posterior probability of a negative effect of water clarity on the log e ( ω )–GDD relationship, suggesting that water clarity may mediate the effect of warming water temperatures by affecting the magnitude and direction of the log e ( ω )–GDD relationship. Our results provide insights into the conservation of cool-water species in a changing environment and identify lakes characteristics in which walleye growth may be more resilient to climate change.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2020

A fishery after the decline: The Susquehanna River Smallmouth Bass story

The Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu fishery in the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania, is one of the most socioeconomically important fisheries in the region and has recently undergone considerable changes. These changes started in 2005, when disease was documented in young-of-the-year (age-0) Smallmouth Bass. Shortly thereafter, declines in abundance of both juveniles and adults were observed. These declines in abundance coincided with disease infections in age-0, intersex in adults, and concerns regarding contaminant exposure. Natural mortality rates, particularly for age-0, increased during this period (2005–2011), and there were concerns for the overall health of this world-class fishery. However, in recent years (2012–2017), there have been decreases in both mortality rates and external observations of disease and increases in abundance across multiple size-classes. Recent changes are encouraging for the future of the Smallmouth Bass fishery in the Susquehanna River. Yet, in light of the ever changing environmental, social, and anthropogenic influences on aquatic ecosystems, there remain concerns for Smallmouth Bass health and management. Because of this, ongoing research efforts are needed to monitor population and health changes and to conduct integrative research that considers complex relationships between organisms and their environments.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2020

Factors affecting sampling strategies for design of an effects‐directed analysis for endocrine‐active chemicals

Effects‐directed analysis (EDA) is an important tool for identifying unknown bioactive components in a complex mixture. Such an analysis of endocrine‐active chemicals (EACs) from water sources has promising regulatory implications but also unique logistical challenges. We propose a conceptual EDA (framework) based on a critical review of EDA literature and concentrations of common EACs in waste and surface waters. Required water volumes for identification of EACs under this EDA framework were estimated based on bioassay performance (in vitro and in vivo bioassays), limits of quantification by mass spectrometry (MS), and EAC water concentrations. Sample volumes for EDA across the EACs showed high variation in the bioassay detectors, with genistein, bisphenol A, and androstenedione requiring very high sample volumes and ethinylestradiol and 17β‐trenbolone requiring low sample volumes. Sample volume based on the MS detector was far less variable across the EACs. The EDA framework equation was rearranged to calculate detector “thresholds,” and these thresholds were compared with the literature EAC water concentrations to evaluate the feasibility of the EDA framework. In the majority of instances, feasibility of the EDA was limited by the bioassay, not MS detection. Mixed model analysis showed that the volumes required for a successful EDA were affected by the potentially responsible EAC, detection methods, and the water source type, with detection method having the greatest effect on the EDA of estrogens and androgens. The EDA framework, equation, and model we present provide a valuable tool for designing a successful EDA.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2020

Ecological risk assessment of environmental stress and bioactive chemicals to riverine fish populations: An individual-based model of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu

Ecological risk assessments play an important role in environmental management and decision-making. Although empirical measurements of the effects of habitat changes and chemical exposure are often made at molecular and individual levels, environmental decision-making often requires the quantification of management-relevant, population-level outcomes. In this study, we generalized a modeling framework to evaluate population-level ecological risk of environmental stress and bioactive chemicals. The modeling framework includes (1) a biological model module that incorporates complex and interacting biological and ecological processes, and environmental stochasticity, (2) an effect module that links the impacts of environmental changes and chemical exposure to individual characteristics, and (3) a population module that makes decisions on the choice of population-level properties to best capture the effects and thus to track in the model based on the target species and the research and management interest. This framework is a 3-module procedure that provides an alternative way for researchers to organize, present and communicate the risk assessment modeling studies. To demonstrate this framework, we used a socioeconomically important riverine fish species, smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu , as the model species. We developed an individual-based model as the biological model module. We evaluated the impacts of changing water temperature and flow regimes, and the impacts of exposure to estrogenic endocrine disrupting compounds (EEDC) on smallmouth bass populations in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA. Warm summer water temperatures and year-round high flows had the most severe impacts on the smallmouth bass population. An increase in exposure level to EEDC, both year-round and in summer months, substantially reduced population size, spawner and recruit abundance, and the proportion of quality-length individuals. Acute exposure to EEDC was more detrimental to the population than chronic exposure. Acute exposure during spawning season had the most severe impacts. This modeling framework can be extended to other species, environmental factors and chemicals, and can be used to inform management and conservation decisions.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2019

Does incorporating gear selectivity during macroscale investigations of fish growth reduce size-selective sampling bias in parameter estimates?

Understanding of fish growth, the spatial variability in individual growth, and the potential drivers of such variability is a fundamental component of many ecological investigations. However, sampling gears are always size-selective, and this selectivity can result in biased parameter estimates that can lead to, for example, biased stock assessments that use growth estimates. Using seven flathead catfish ( Pylodictis olivaris ) populations from across the USA as an example, we investigated to what degree the incorporation of gear selectivity in growth models reduces size-selective bias in the estimation of growth parameters during macroscale investigations of fish growth. We developed a series of simulation scenarios by combining different sampling methods to obtain fish samples and different gear selectivity assumptions to estimate parameters. Results showed that the efficacy of incorporating gear selectivity in growth models to reduce size-selective sampling bias during macroscale investigations depends on multiple factors, including ( i ) the size distribution of small and large fish in the sample (which is a function of sampling methods), and ( ii ) consistency of sampling methods across populations. Incorporation of gear selectivity may reduce bias when data are lacking for large fish and when sampling methods are inconsistent across populations. Demographics of the sampled populations and the growth parameter of interest can also affect the utility of directly incorporating gear selectivity into growth models. Because multiple factors can influence the efficacy of incorporating gear selectivity into growth models, the decision to do so likely needs to be made on a case-by-case basis. This study extends the existing gear selectivity research by focusing on macroscale fish growth investigations across multiple populations and provides guidance on how to handle gear selectivity assumptions during such investigations.

Canadian Journal Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2018

Quantifying population-level effects of water temperature, flow velocity and chemical-induced reproduction depression: A simulation study with smallmouth bass

Evaluating stochastic abiotic factors and their combined effects on fish and wildlife populations have been challenging in environmental sciences. Contributing to this challenge is the paucity of data describing how observations made on individuals related to exposure to chemical compounds ultimately effect population vital rates, and how this exposure interacts with other abiotic drivers. Using three smallmouth bass populations in Pennsylvania as a case study, we explored both single-factor and combined effects of water temperature, flow velocity and chemical exposure on populations through a model simulation. Although there are many pathways through which chemicals can affect population vital rates, we focused on one where chemical exposure leads to reduced reproduction. Among the three populations considered, two (the Juniata and Susquehanna populations) have experienced adverse health, including the potential adverse effects of environmental stress and chemical contamination that may cause disease and mortality of young-of-year (YOY), various skin lesions and a high prevalence of intersex or testicular oocytes in adults. The third population (The Alleghany population) has not encountered mortality events of YOY and intersex prevalence is much lower. The simulation involved projecting populations using a length-based model under different environmental conditions. In the simulations, abiotic factors influenced population dynamics through their impacts on growth, survival and recruitment. Response to the same environmental stress varied by population and life-stage of the species. Factors affecting young adult and adult life-stages had great influence on proportional stock density (PSD) and the probability of having PSD within the suggested range (PSD probability). Increases in water temperature had a negative effect and dominant role in the combined effect on population size structure (e.g., PSD and PSD probability) – increases in flow velocity during the spring season also had a negative effect on abundance. Populations with high recruitment rates sustained relatively large population size, even under high water temperature and/or high flow velocity, which suggests that factors and management strategies that benefit recruitment (such as reduced chemical contaminants) may compensate for the negative effects of warming water temperatures and high spring flow velocity on population size.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2018

Evaluating spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality for recreational fisheries with limited catch data

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability in life-history traits among populations is essential for the management of recreational fisheries. However, valuable freshwater recreational fish species often suffer from a lack of catch information. In this study, we demonstrated the use of an approach to estimate the spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality in the absence of catch data and apply the method to riverine smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) populations in Pennsylvania, USA. Our approach included a growth analysis and a length-based analysis that estimates mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we examined spatial variability in growth and mortality by assuming parameters vary spatially but remain constant over time and temporal variability by assuming parameters vary spatially and temporally. The estimated growth and mortality of smallmouth bass showed substantial variability over time and across rivers. We explored the relationships of the estimated growth and mortality with spring water temperature and spring flow. Growth rate was likely to be positively correlated with these two factors, while young mortality was likely to be positively correlated with spring flow. The spatially and temporally varying growth and mortality suggest that smallmouth bass populations across rivers may respond differently to management plans and disturbance such as environmental contamination and land-use change. The analytical approach can be extended to other freshwater recreational species that also lack of catch data. The approach could also be useful in developing population assessments with erroneous catch data or be used as a model sensitivity scenario to verify traditional models even when catch data are available.

Pennsylvania↗