Geology topics

Winifred F. Frick

Publications and source records attributed to Winifred F. Frick.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Predicting bat roosts in bridges using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees

Human-built structures can provide important habitat for wildlife, but predicting which structures are most likely to be used remains challenging. To evaluate the predictive capabilities of data-driven ensemble modeling approaches, we conducted surveys for bats and signs of bat use, such as urine and guano staining, at bridges across the southwestern United States. We developed a bat roost discovery tool using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) and evaluated the predictive ability of this model against other commonly used approaches. We found that the lack of nearby water resources was associated with a lower predicted probability of bat presence or signs of bat use at bridges. While the presence of nearby water resources was associated with higher average predicted probability of bat presence or signs of bat use, high uncertainty surrounding these estimates indicates that other factors also play a role in determining which bridge roosts bats are more likely to use. As such, our model could be particularly useful for predicting which bridges can be excluded from survey efforts due to low probability of bat presence or signs of bat use. We extrapolated our model to unsurveyed bridges across the study region and provide an interactive dashboard application interface for the exploration of these results. Overall, this study demonstrates the application of BART as a predictive tool for prioritizing future bridge surveys for bats roosting in transportation structures.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS2025

A novel method for estimating pathogen presence, prevalence, load, and dynamics at multiple scales

The use of quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to monitor pathogens is common; however, quantitative frameworks that consider the observation process, dynamics in pathogen presence, and pathogen load are lacking. This can be problematic in the early stages of disease progression, where low level detections may be treated as ‘inconclusive’ and excluded from analyses. Alternatively, a framework that accounts for imperfect detection would provide more robust inferences. To better estimate pathogen dynamics, we developed a hierarchical multi-scale dynamic occupancy hurdle model (MS-DOHM). The model used data gathered during sampling for Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) , the causative agent of white-nose syndrome, a fungal disease that has cause severe declines in several species of hibernating bats in North America. The model allowed us to estimate initial occupancy, colonization, persistence and prevalence of Pd at bat hibernacula. Additionally, utilizing the relationship between cycle threshold and pathogen load, we estimated pathogen detectability and modeled expected colony and bat pathogen loads. To assess the ability of MS-DOHM to estimate pathogen dynamics, we compared MS-DOHM’s results to those of a dynamic occupancy model and naïve detection/non-detection. MS-DOHM’s estimates of site-level pathogen presence were up to 11.9% higher than estimates from the dynamic occupancy model and 35.7% higher than naïve occupancy. Including prevalence and load in our modeling framework resulted in estimates of pathogen arrival that were two to three years earlier compared to the dynamic occupancy and naïve detection/non-detection, respectively. Compared to naïve values, MS-DOHM predicted greater pathogen loads on colonies; however, we found no difference between model estimates and naïve values of prevalence. While the model predicted no declines in site-level prevalence, there were instances where pathogen load decreased in colonies that had been Pd positive for longer periods of time. Our findings demonstrate that accounting for pathogen load and prevalence at multiple scales changes our understanding of Pd dynamics, potentially allowing earlier conservation intervention. Additionally, we found that accounting for pathogen load and prevalence within hibernacula and among individuals resulted in a better fitting model with greater predictive ability.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2024

The state of the bats in North America

The world's rich diversity of bats supports healthy ecosystems and important ecosystem services. Maintaining healthy biological systems requires prompt identification of threats to biodiversity and immediate action to protect species, which for wide-ranging bat species that span geopolitical boundaries warrants international coordination. Anthropogenic forces drive the threats to bats throughout North America and the world. We conducted an international expert elicitation to assess the status of 153 bat species in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. We used expert assessment to determine the conservation status, highest impact threats, and recent population trends for these species. We found that 53% of North American bat species have moderate to very high risk of extinction in the next 15 years. The highest impact threats varied with species and country, and four IUCN threat categories had the greatest overall impacts: Climate Change, Problematic Species (including disease), Agriculture, and Energy Production. Experts estimated that 90% of species assessed had decreasing population trends over the past 15 years, demonstrating the need for conservation action. Although the state of North American bats is concerning, we identify threats that can be addressed through internationally collaborative, proactive, and protective actions to support the recovery and resilience of North American bat species.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2024

A decade of curtailment studies demonstrates a consistent and effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind turbines in North America

There is a rapid, global push for wind energy installation. However, large numbers of bats are killed by turbines each year, raising concerns about the impacts of wind energy expansion on bat populations. Preventing turbine blades from spinning at low wind speeds, referred to as curtailment, is a method to reduce bat fatalities, but drawing consistent inference across studies has been challenging. We compiled publicly available studies that evaluated curtailment at six wind energy facilities in North America across 10 years. We used meta-regression of 29 implemented treatments to determine fatality reduction efficacy as well as sources of variation influencing efficacy. We also estimated species-specific fatality reduction for three species that comprise most fatalities in North America: hoary bat ( Lasiurus cinereus ), eastern red bat ( Lasiurus borealis ) and silver-haired bat ( Lasionycteris noctivagans ). We found that curtailment reduced total bat fatalities by 33% with every 1.0 ms −1 increase in curtailment wind speed. Estimates of the efficacy for the three target species were similar (hoary bats: 28% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 0.4%–48%, eastern red bats: 32% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 13%–47% and silver-haired bats: 32% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 3%–53%). Across multiple facilities and years, a 5.0 ms −1 cut-in speed was estimated to reduce total bat fatalities by an average of 62% (95% CI: 54%–69%). Mortality reductions at individual facilities in any given year were estimated to fall between 33%–79% (95% prediction interval). Inter-annual differences rather than inter-site or turbine characteristics accounted for most of the variation in efficacy rates. Species-specific average mortality reduction at 5.0 ms −1 curtailment wind speed was 48% (95% CI: 24%–64%) for hoary bats, 61% (95% CI: 42%–74%) for eastern red bats and 52% (95% CI: 30%–66%) for silver-haired bats. Practical implication . curtailment reduced bat mortality at wind turbines in this North American study. Efficacy increased proportionally as curtailment speed is raised, and patterns and rates of efficacy were similar across species. This indicates that curtailment is an effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind energy facilities, but exploration of further refinements could both minimize bat mortality and maximize energy production.

Ecological Solutions and Evidence↗

USGS2024

Using mobile acoustic monitoring and false-positive N-mixture models to estimate bat abundance and population trends

Estimating the abundance of unmarked animal populations from acoustic data is challenging due to the inability to identify individuals and the need to adjust for observation biases including detectability (false negatives), species misclassification (false positives), and sampling exposure. Acoustic surveys conducted along mobile transects were designed to avoid counting individuals more than once, where raw counts are commonly treated as an index of abundance. More recently, false-positive abundance models have been developed to estimate abundance while accounting for imperfect detection and misclassification. We adapted these methods to model summertime abundance and trends of three species of bats at multiple spatial scales using acoustic recordings collected along mobile transects by partners of the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) from 2012 to 2020. This multiscale modeling spanned individual transect routes, larger NABat grid cells (10 km × 10 km), and across the entire extent of modeled species ranges. We estimated relationships between species abundances and a suite of abiotic and biotic predictors (landcover types, climatological variables, physiographic diversity, building density, and the impacts of white-nose syndrome [WNS]) and found varying levels of support between species. We present clear evidence of substantial declines in populations of tricolored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ) and little brown bats ( Myotis lucifugus ), declines that corresponded in space and time with the progression of WNS, a devastating disease of hibernating bats. In contrast, our analysis revealed that similar population-wide declines probably have not occurred in big brown bats ( Eptesicus fuscus ), a species known to be less affected by WNS. This study provides the first abundance-based species distribution predictions and population trends for bats in their summer ranges in North America. These models will probably be applicable to assessing wildlife populations in other monitoring programs where acoustic data are used or where false-negative and false-positive detections are present. Finally, our abundance framework (as a spatial point pattern process) can serve as a foundation from which more sophisticated integrated species distribution models that incorporate additional streams of monitoring data (e.g., stationary acoustics, captures) can be developed for North American bats.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2022

Experimental inoculation trial to determine the effects of temperature and humidity on White-nose Syndrome in hibernating bats

Disease results from interactions among the host, pathogen, and environment. Inoculation trials can quantify interactions among these players and explain aspects of disease ecology to inform management in variable and dynamic natural environments. White-nose Syndrome, a disease caused by the fungal pathogen, Pseudogymnoascus destructans ( Pd ), has caused severe population declines of several bat species in North America. We conducted the first experimental infection trial on the tri-colored bat, Perimyotis subflavus , to test the effect of temperature and humidity on disease severity. We also tested the effects of temperature and humidity on fungal growth and persistence on substrates. Unexpectedly, only 37% (35/95) of bats experimentally inoculated with Pd at the start of the experiment showed any infection response or disease symptoms after 83 days of captive hibernation. There was no evidence that temperature or humidity influenced infection response. Temperature had a strong effect on fungal growth on media plates, but the influence of humidity was more variable and uncertain. Designing laboratory studies to maximize research outcomes would be beneficial given the high costs of such efforts and potential for unexpected outcomes. Understanding the influence of microclimates on host–pathogen interactions remains an important consideration for managing wildlife diseases, particularly in variable environments.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2022

Status and trends of North American bats: Summer occupancy analysis 2010-2019

• We developed an analytical pipeline supported by web-based infrastructure for integrating continental scale bat monitoring data (stationary acoustic, mobile acoustic, and capture records) to estimate summer (May 1–Aug 31) occupancy probabilities and changes in occupancy over time for 12 North American bat species. This serves as one of multiple lines of evidence that inform the status and trends of bat populations. • We analyzed data from a total of 12 bat species (Table 1), 11 of which have tested positive for Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), a fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome (WNS)—a disease that has led to significant rates of mortality for subterranean hibernating bat species in North America. A twelfth species was also selected because of high rates of mortality at wind energy facilities. Additional species were considered but not selected due to data limitations. • We estimated occupancy probabilities for 2010 through 2019 for three species ( Myotis lucifugus , MYLU; Myotis septentrionalis , MYSE; and P erimyotis subflavus , PESU). For an additional nine species, we estimated occupancy probabilities for 2016 through 2019 ( Myotis evotis , MYEV; Myotis grisescens , MYGR; Myotis leibii , MYLE; Myotis thysanodes , MYTH; Myotis volans , MYVO; Myotis yumanensis , MYYU; Eptesicus fuscus , EPFU; Lasionycteris noctivagans , LANO; and Lasiurus cinereus , LACI). • For each species, we provide range-wide occupancy probability predictions (e.g., predicted summer occupancy distribution maps) each year at a spatial resolution of 100 km2 and provide regional estimates of mean occupancy probability aggregated at larger spatial scales (state/province/territory, range-wide). • For each species, we also provide trends over time (average annual change rate and total change rate) in mean occupancy probabilities at multiple spatial scales (state/province/territory, range-wide) and when possible, over multiple timescales (short, medium, long). • Results suggest that over the short-term (2016-2019), two ( Myotis lucifugus and Perimyotis subflavus ) of 12 species have experienced declines in range-wide average occupancy probability with at least 95% certainty. Seven species showed either minor increases or decreases in range-wide average occupancy probability but with less than 95% certainty in both trend indicators. Results over the longer term (eight years and 10 years of sampling) suggest that three hibernating species known to be highly affected by white-nose syndrome ( Myotis lucifugus , Myotis septentrionalis , and Perimyotis subflavus ) have experienced marked declines in range-wide average occupancy probabilities, with severity varying by species and region. Finally, the results for three species ( Eptesicus fuscus , Lasiurus cinereus , Lasionycteris noctivagans ) were inconclusive due to 1) borderline convergence issues in the model fitting procedure which suggests potentially unreliable estimates, 2) failure to reliably distinguish between false positives and true positive detections for ambiguous detections, and 3) largely uninformative covariates for occupancy and detection. • For Myotis lucifugus , Myotis septentrionalis , and Perimyotis subflavus we found meaningful associations in space and time between declining winter populations (likely a result of WNS) and summer occupancy distributions. • The representativeness of sampling data for each species’ status and trend estimates (e.g., state/province/territory) were also evaluated based on the percent of grid cells sampled each year with a goal of understanding the reliability of regional estimates and improving future monitoring efforts. • This work represents the most comprehensive effort to date to model North American bat distributions across their continental ranges. Despite current limitations highlighted in the discussion, the analytical methods and resulting status and trends estimates provide the best available science on summer bat populations across North America and will continue to improve over time as monitoring data sets and analytical methods improve. • Moving forward, our occupancy analyses will continue to improve with submission of more 1) data from currently underrepresented areas (i.e., improved geographic representation), 2) manually-vetted acoustic recordings, 3) capture records, and 4) roost location and count data (summer and winter).

Report↗

USGS2021

The scope and severity of white-nose syndrome on hibernating bats in North America

Assessing the scope and severity of threats is necessary for evaluating impacts on populations to inform conservation planning. Quantitative threat assessment often requires monitoring programs that provide reliable data over relevant spatial and temporal scales, yet such programs can be difficult to justify until there is an apparent stressor. Leveraging efforts of wildlife management agencies to record winter counts of hibernating bats, we collated data for 5 species from over 200 sites across 27 U.S. states and 2 Canadian provinces from 1995 to 2018 to determine the impact of white-nose syndrome (WNS), a deadly disease of hibernating bats. We estimated declines of winter counts of bat colonies at sites where the invasive fungus that causes WNS ( Pseudogymnoascus destructans ) had been detected to assess the threat impact of WNS. Three species undergoing species status assessment by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ( Myotis septentrionalis , Myotis lucifugus , and Perimyotis subflavus ) declined by more than 90%, which warrants classifying the severity of the WNS threat as extreme based on criteria used by NatureServe. The scope of the WNS threat as defined by NatureServe criteria was large (36% of Myotis lucifugus range) to pervasive (79% of Myotis septentrionalis range) for these species. Declines for 2 other species ( Myotis sodalis and Eptesicus fuscus ) were less severe but still qualified as moderate to serious based on NatureServe criteria. Data-sharing across jurisdictions provided a comprehensive evaluation of scope and severity of the threat of WNS and indicated regional differences that can inform response efforts at international, national, and state or provincial jurisdictions. We assessed the threat impact of an emerging infectious disease by uniting monitoring efforts across jurisdictional boundaries and demonstrated the importance of coordinated monitoring programs, such as the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), for data-driven conservation assessments and planning.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2021

NABat: A top-down, bottom-up solution to collaborative continental-scale monitoring

Collaborative monitoring over broad scales and levels of ecological organization can inform conservation efforts necessary to address the contemporary biodiversity crisis. An important challenge to collaborative monitoring is motivating local engagement with enough buy-in from stakeholders while providing adequate top-down direction for scientific rigor, quality control, and coordination. Collaborative monitoring must reconcile this inherent tension between top-down control and bottom-up engagement. Highly mobile and cryptic taxa, such as bats, present a particularly acute challenge. Given their scale of movement, complex life histories, and rapidly expanding threats, understanding population trends of bats requires coordinated broad-scale collaborative monitoring. The North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) reconciles top-down, bottom-up tension with a hierarchical master sample survey design, integrated data analysis, dynamic data curation, regional monitoring hubs, and knowledge delivery through web-based infrastructure. NABat supports collaborative monitoring across spatial and organizational scales and the full annual lifecycle of bats.

Ambio↗

USGS2020

Possibility for reverse zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to free-ranging wildlife: A case study of bats

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations.

PLoS Pathogens↗

USGS2020

Identifying research needs to inform white-nose syndrome management decisions

Ecological understanding of host–pathogen dynamics is the basis for managing wildlife diseases. Since 2008, federal, state, and provincial agencies and tribal and private organizations have collaborated on bat and white‐nose syndrome (WNS) surveillance and monitoring, research, and management programs. Accordingly, scientists and managers have learned a lot about the hosts, pathogen, and dynamics of WNS. However, effective mitigation measures to combat WNS remain elusive. Host–pathogen systems are complex, and identifying ecological research priorities to improve management, choosing among various actions, and deciding when to implement those actions can be challenging. Through a cross‐disciplinary approach, a group of diverse subject matter experts created an influence diagram used to identify uncertainties and prioritize research needs for WNS management. Critical knowledge gaps were identified, particularly with respect to how WNS dynamics and impacts may differ among bat species. We highlight critical uncertainties and identify targets for WNS research. This tool can be used to maximize the likelihood of achieving bat conservation goals within the context and limitations of specific real‐world scenarios.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2015

Direct detection of fungal siderophores on bats with white-nose syndrome via fluorescence microscopy-guided ambient ionization mass spectrometry

White-nose syndrome (WNS) caused by the pathogenic fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans is decimating the populations of several hibernating North American bat species. Little is known about the molecular interplay between pathogen and host in this disease. Fluorescence microscopy ambient ionization mass spectrometry was used to generate metabolic profiles from the wings of both healthy and diseased bats of the genus Myotis . Fungal siderophores, molecules that scavenge iron from the environment, were detected on the wings of bats with WNS, but not on healthy bats. This work is among the first examples in which microbial molecules are directly detected from an infected host and highlights the ability of atmospheric ionization methodologies to provide direct molecular insight into infection.

Pennsylvania, West Virginia↗

USGS2014

Moving beyond too little, too late: managing emerging infectious diseases in wild populations requires international policy and partnerships

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are on the rise due to multiple factors, including human facilitated movement of pathogens, broad-scale landscape changes, and perturbations to ecological systems (Jones et al. 2008; Fisher et al. 2012). Epidemics in wildlife are problematic because they can lead to pathogen spillover to new host organisms, erode biodiversity and threaten ecosystems that sustain human societies (Fisher et al. 2012; Kilpatrick 2011). There have been recent calls for large-scale research approaches to combat threats EIDs pose to wildlife (Sleeman 2013). While it is true that developing new analytical models, diagnostic assays and molecular tools will significantly avance outr abilities to respond to disease threats, we also propose that addressing difficult problems in EIDs will require considerable shofts in international health policy and infrastructure. While there are currently international organizations responsbile for rapidly initiating and coordinating preventative measures to control infectious diseases in human, livestock, and arable systems, there are few comparable instiutions that have the authority to implement transnational responses to EIDs in wildlife. This absence of well-developed infastructure hampers the rapid responses necessary to mitigate international spread of EIDs.

EcoHealth↗

USGS2012

Partly cloudy with a chance of migration: Weather, radars, and aeroecology

Aeroecology is an emerging scientific discipline that integrates atmospheric science, Earth science, geography, ecology, computer science, computational biology, and engineering to further the understanding of biological patterns and processes. The unifying concept underlying this new transdisciplinary field of study is a focus on the planetary boundary layer and lower free atmosphere (i.e., the aerosphere), and the diversity of airborne organisms that inhabit and depend on the aerosphere for their existence. Here, we focus on the role of radars and radar networks in aeroecological studies. Radar systems scanning the atmosphere are primarily used to monitor weather conditions and track the location and movements of aircraft. However, radar echoes regularly contain signals from other sources, such as airborne birds, bats, and arthropods. We briefly discuss how radar observations can be and have been used to study a variety of airborne organisms and examine some of the many potential benefits likely to arise from radar aeroecology for meteorological and biological research over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Radar systems are becoming increasingly sophisticated with the advent of innovative signal processing and dual-polarimetric capabilities. These capabilities should be better harnessed to promote both meteorological and aeroecological research and to explore the interface between these two broad disciplines. We strongly encourage close collaboration among meteorologists, radar scientists, biologists, and others toward developing radar products that will contribute to a better understanding of airborne fauna.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗