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Geology topics

William Link

Publications and source records attributed to William Link.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2023

Population dynamics and harvest management of eastern mallards

Managing sustainable harvest of wildlife populations requires regular collection of demographic data and robust estimates of demographic parameters. Estimates can then be used to develop a harvest strategy to guide decision-making. Mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) are an important species in the Atlantic Flyway for many users and they exhibited exponential growth in the eastern United States between the 1970s and 1990s. Since then, estimates of mallard abundance have declined 16%, prompting the Atlantic Flyway Council and United States Fish and Wildlife Service to implement more restrictive hunting regulations and develop a new harvest strategy predicated on an updated population model. Our primary objective was to develop an integrated population model (IPM) for use in an eastern mallard harvest management strategy. We developed an IPM using annual estimates of breeding abundance, 2-season banding and recovery data, and hunter-harvest data from 1998 to 2018. When developing the model, we used novel model selection methods to test various forms of a sub-model for survival including estimating the degree of harvest additivity and any age-specific trends. The top survival sub-model included a negative annual trend on juvenile survival. The IPM posterior estimates for population abundance tracked closely with the observed estimates and estimates of mean annual population growth rate ranged from 0.88 to 1.08. Our population model provided increased precision in abundance estimates compared to survey methods for use in an updated harvest strategy. The IPM posterior estimates of survival rates were relatively stable for adult cohorts, and annual growth rate was positively correlated with the female age ratio, a measure of reproduction. Either or both of those demographic parameters, juvenile survival or reproduction, could be a target for management efforts to address the population decline. The resulting demographic parameters provided information on the equilibrium population size and can be used in an adaptive harvest strategy for mallards in eastern North America.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2021

American Woodcock singing-ground survey: Comparison of four models for trend in population size

Wildlife biologists monitor the status and trends of American woodcock Scolopax minor populations in the eastern and central United States and Canada via a singing-ground survey, conducted just after sunset along roadsides in spring. Annual analyses of the survey produce estimates of trend and annual indexes of abundance for 25 states and provinces, management regions, and survey-wide. In recent years, researchers have used a log-linear hierarchical model that defines year effects as random effects in the context of a slope parameter (the S model) to model population change. Recently, researchers have proposed alternative models suitable for analysis of singing-ground survey data. Analysis of a similar roadside survey, the North American Breeding Bird Survey, has indicated that alternative models are preferable for almost all species analyzed in the Breeding Bird Survey. Here, we use leave-one-out cross-validation to compare model fit for the present singing-ground survey model to fits of three alternative models, including a model that describes population change as the difference in expected counts between successive years (the D model) and two models that include t -distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion effects (H models) as opposed to normally distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion. Leave-one-out cross-validation results indicate that the Bayesian predictive information criterion favored the D model, but a pairwise t -test indicated that the D model was not significantly better-fitting to singing-ground survey data than the S model. The H models are not preferable to the alternatives with normally distributed overdispersion. All models provided generally similar estimates of trend and annual indexes suggesting that, within this model set, choice of model will not lead to alternative conclusions regarding population change. However, as in Breeding Bird Survey analyses, we note a tendency for S model results to provide slightly more extreme estimates of trend relative to D models. We recommend use of the D model for future singing-ground survey analyses.

Eastern and Central United States and Canada↗
USGS2021

A Bayesian Dirichlet process community occupancy model to estimate community structure and species similarity

Community occupancy models estimate species‐specific parameters while sharing information across species by treating parameters as sampled from a common distribution. When communities consist of discrete groups, shrinkage of estimates towards the community mean can mask differences among groups. Infinite mixture models using a Dirichlet process (DP) distribution, in which the number of latent groups is estimated from the data, have been proposed as a solution. In addition to community structure, these models estimate species similarity, which allows testing hypotheses about whether traits drive species response to environmental conditions. We develop a community occupancy model (COM) using a DP distribution to model species‐level parameters. Because clustering algorithms are sensitive to dimensionality and distinctiveness of clusters, we conducted a simulation study to explore performance of the DP‐COM with different dimensions (i.e., different numbers of model parameters with species‐level DP random effects) and under varying cluster differences. Because the DP‐COM is computationally expensive, we compared its estimates to a COM with a normal random species effect. We further applied the DP‐COM model to a bird dataset from Uganda. Estimates of the number of clusters and species cluster identity improved with increasing difference among clusters and increasing dimensions of the DP; but the number of clusters was always overestimated. Estimates of number of sites occupied and species and community level covariate coefficients on occupancy probability were generally unbiased with (near‐) nominal 95% Bayesian Credible Interval coverage. Accuracy of estimates from the normal and the DP‐COM were similar. The DP‐COM clustered 166 bird species into 27 clusters regarding their affiliation with open or woodland habitat and distance to oil wells. Estimates of covariate coefficients were similar between a normal and the DP‐COM. Except sunbirds, species within a family were not more similar in their response to these covariates than the overall community. Given that estimates were consistent between the normal and the DP‐COM, and considering the computational burden for the DP models, we recommend using the DP‐COM only when the analysis focuses on community structure and species similarity, as these quantities can only be obtained under the DP‐COM.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2019

Variation of annual apparent survival and detection rates with age, year, and individual identity in male Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) from long-term mark-recapture data

Exploring age- and sex-specific survival rates provides insight regarding population behavior and life-history trait evolution, but many population studies exclude males. Accordingly, our understanding of how age-specific patterns of survival, including actuarial senescence, compare between the sexes remains inadequate. Using 35 years of mark-recapture data for 7,516 male Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) born in Erebus Bay, Antarctica, we estimated age- specific annual survival rates using a hierarchical model for mark-recapture data in a Bayesian framework. Our male survival estimates were moderate for pups and yearlings, highest for 2- year-olds, and gradually declined with age thereafter such that the oldest animals observed had the lowest rates of any age. Reports of senescence in other wildlife populations of species with similar longevity occurred at older ages than those presented here. When compared to recently published estimates for reproductive Weddell seal females, we found that peak survival rates were similar (males: 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92-0.96; females: 0.92, 95% CI = 0.93-0.95), but rates declined more rapidly in males. Costs of reproduction for males seem to exceed costs incurred by females, but age-specific reproductive data for males are necessary to fully evaluate survival- reproduction tradeoffs in males. Similar studies on a broad range of species are needed to contextualize these results for a better understanding of the variation in senescence patterns between the sexes of the same species, but our study adds information for a marine mammal species to a research topic dominated by avian and ungulate species.

Population Ecology↗
USGS2011

Analysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey using hierarchical models

We analyzed population change for 420 bird species from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the results with those obtained through route-regression analysis. Survey-wide trend estimates based on the hierarchical model were generally more precise than estimates from the earlier analysis. No consistent pattern of differences existed in the magnitude of trends between the analysis methods. Survey-wide trend estimates changed substantially for 15 species between route-regression and hierarchical-model analyses. We compared regional estimates for states, provinces, and Bird Conservation Regions; differences observed in these regional analyses are likely a consequence of the route-regression procedure's inadequate accommodation of temporal differences in survey effort. We used species-specific hierarchical-model results to estimate composite change for groups of birds associated with major habitats and migration types. Grassland, aridland, and eastern-forest-obligate bird species declined, whereas urban—suburban species increased over the interval 1968–2008. No migration status group experienced significant changes, although Nearctic—Neotropical migrant species showed intervals of decline and permanent resident species increased almost 20% during the interval. Hierarchical-model results better portrayed patterns of population change over time than route-regression results. We recommend use of hierarchical models for BBS analyses.

North America↗
USGS2010

Spatial patterns of bee captures in North American bowl trapping surveys

1. Bowl and pan traps are now commonly used to capture bees (Hymenoptera: Apiformes) for research and surveys. 2. Studies of how arrangement and spacing of bowl traps affect captures of bees are needed to increase the efficiency of this capture technique. 3. We present results from seven studies of bowl traps placed in trapping webs, grids, and transects in four North American ecoregions (Mid-Atlantic, Coastal California, Chihuahuan Desert, and Columbia Plateau). 4. Over 6000 specimens from 31 bee genera were captured and analysed across the studies. 5. Based on the results from trapping webs and distance tests, the per bowl capture rate of bees does not plateau until bowls are spaced 3–5 m apart. 6. Minor clumping of bee captures within transects was detected, with 26 of 56 transects having index of dispersion values that conform to a clumped distribution and 39 transects having positive Green's index values, 13 with zero, and only four negative. However, degree of clumping was slight with an average value of only 0.06 (the index ranges from -1 to 1) with only five values >0.15. Similarly, runs tests were significant for only 5.9% of the transects. 7. Results indicate that (i) capture rates are unaffected by short distances between bowls within transects and (ii) that bowls and transects should be dispersed throughout a study site.

Insect Conservation and Diversity↗