Geology topics

William A. Bennett

Publications and source records attributed to William A. Bennett.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2013

Implications for future survival of delta smelt from four climate change scenarios for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

Changes in the position of the low salinity zone, a habitat suitability index, turbidity, and water temperature modeled from four 100-year scenarios of climate change were evaluated for possible effects on delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus , which is endemic to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. The persistence of delta smelt in much of its current habitat into the next century appears uncertain. By mid-century, the position of the low salinity zone in the fall and the habitat suitability index converged on values only observed during the worst droughts of the baseline period (1969–2000). Projected higher water temperatures would render waters historically inhabited by delta smelt near the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers largely uninhabitable. However, the scenarios of climate change are based on assumptions that require caution in the interpretation of the results. Projections like these provide managers with a useful tool for anticipating long-term challenges to managing fish populations and possibly adapting water management to ameliorate those challenges.

California↗

USGS2012

Perils of correlating CUSUM-transformed variables to infer ecological relationships (Breton et al. 2006; Glibert 2010)

We comment on a nonstandard statistical treatment of time-series data first published by Breton et al. (2006) in Limnology and Oceanography and, more recently, used by Glibert (2010) in Reviews in Fisheries Science. In both papers, the authors make strong inferences about the underlying causes of population variability based on correlations between cumulative sum (CUSUM) transformations of organism abundances and environmental variables. Breton et al. (2006) reported correlations between CUSUM-transformed values of diatom biomass in Belgian coastal waters and the North Atlantic Oscillation, and between meteorological and hydrological variables. Each correlation of CUSUM-transformed variables was judged to be statistically significant. On the basis of these correlations, Breton et al. (2006) developed "the first evidence of synergy between climate and human-induced river-based nitrate inputs with respect to their effects on the magnitude of spring Phaeocystis colony blooms and their dominance over diatoms."

Limnology and Oceanography↗

USGS2010

Bayesian change point analysis of abundance trends for pelagic fishes in the upper San Francisco Estuary

We examined trends in abundance of four pelagic fish species (delta smelt, longfin smelt, striped bass, and threadfin shad) in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, over 40 years using Bayesian change point models. Change point models identify times of abrupt or unusual changes in absolute abundance (step changes) or in rates of change in abundance (trend changes). We coupled Bayesian model selection with linear regression splines to identify biotic or abiotic covariates with the strongest associations with abundances of each species. We then refitted change point models conditional on the selected covariates to explore whether those covariates could explain statistical trends or change points in species abundances. We also fitted a multispecies change point model that identified change points common to all species. All models included hierarchical structures to model data uncertainties, including observation errors and missing covariate values. There were step declines in abundances of all four species in the early 2000s, with a likely common decline in 2002. Abiotic variables, including water clarity, position of the 2 isohaline (X2), and the volume of freshwater exported from the estuary, explained some variation in species' abundances over the time series, but no selected covariates could explain statistically the post-2000 change points for any species.

California↗

USGS2010

Analysis of pelagic species decline in the upper San Francisco Estuary using multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR)

Four species of pelagic fish of particular management concern in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, have declined precipitously since ca. 2002: delta smelt ( Hypomesus transpacificus ), longfin smelt ( Spirinchus thaleichthys ), striped bass ( Morone saxatilis ), and threadfin shad ( Dorosoma petenense ). The estuary has been monitored since the late 1960s with extensive collection of data on the fishes, their pelagic prey, phytoplankton biomass, invasive species, and physical factors. We used multivariate autoregressive (MAR) modeling to discern the main factors responsible for the declines. An expert-elicited model was built to describe the system. Fifty-four relationships were built into the model, only one of which was of uncertain direction a priori. Twenty-eight of the proposed relationships were strongly supported by or consistent with the data, while 26 were close to zero (not supported by the data but not contrary to expectations). The position of the 2 isohaline (a measure of the physical response of the estuary to freshwater flow) and increased water clarity over the period of analyses were two factors affecting multiple declining taxa (including fishes and the fishes' main zooplankton prey). Our results were relatively robust with respect to the form of stock–recruitment model used and to inclusion of subsidiary covariates but may be enhanced by using detailed state–space models that describe more fully the life-history dynamics of the declining species.

California↗

USGS2002

Plasticity in vertical migration by native and exotic estuarine fishes in a dynamic low‐salinity zone

We investigated the degree of flexibility in retention strategies of young fishes in the low‐salinity zone (LSZ) of the San Francisco Estuary during years of highly variable river flow. We conducted depth‐stratified sampling over three full tidal cycles in each year from 1994 to 1996. In 1994, exotic striped bass ( Morone saxatilis ), native longfin smelt ( Spirinchus thaleichthys ), and exotic yellowfin goby ( Acanthogobus flavimanus ) migrated tidally, occurring near the surface on flood tides and near the bottom on ebb tides. This strategy may have facilitated retention, because landward residual currents were absent in this drought year. During 1995, this behavior persisted for striped bass and yellowfin goby, even though landward residual currents were present under high river‐flow conditions. In moderate river‐flow conditions (1996), longfin smelt again migrated tidally, whereas at another station adjacent to shallow bays, longfin smelt, striped bass, and native delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) migrated on a reverse diel cycle, occurring near the surface by day and at depth by night. Reverse diel migration may facilitate horizontal transport and retention. Therefore, young fishes appeared to be behaviorally flexible in different environmental conditions to maximize retention. Vertical migrations may also enhance feeding success because zooplankton prey similarly migrated in the LSZ. Our study underscores the value of interdisciplinary studies in a variety of environmental conditions to decipher the range of organism behaviors promoting transport and retention in optimal habitats.

California↗

USGS1992

Implications of morphological variation among populations of California roach Lavinia symmetricus (Cyprinidae) for conservation policy

The California roach Lavinia symmetricus is a small cyprinid native to Central California. Populations of roach are presently isolated from one another due to degradation of stream habitats between them. We examined eight populations, each from a tributary system of the San Joaquin River, to determine if morphological differences existed among them. These tributaries are now isolated from one another by dams or areas of unsuitable habitat. We found significant differences among drainages for all of the characters studied. Discriminant analysis classified 70% of the individuals to the correct drainage. The differences were not clinal because adjacent drainages were not grouped together in discriminant space. The most distinct population was as different from a nearby population (36 stream km) as from populations from other more distant tributaries and could possibly merit subspecies status. These results suggest that each population has been isolated long enough to develop morphological adaptions to local environment conditions. With one exception, the differences among the populations were too small for formal taxonomic recognition but suggest that management should focus on preserving local populations throughout the species' range, rather than scattered populations in a few reserves. This policy would serve to protect the genetic diversity of California roach, local aquatic habitats, and other even more poorly known species.

California↗