Geology topics

Wendy J. Palen

Publications and source records attributed to Wendy J. Palen.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Contrasting demographic responses under future climate for two populations of a montane amphibian

For species with complex life histories, climate change can have contrasting effects for different life stages within locally adapted populations and may result in responses counter to general climate change predictions. Using data from two, 14-year demographic studies for a North American montane amphibian, Cascades frog ( Rana cascadae ), we quantified how aspects of current climate influenced annual survival of larvae and adult stages and modeled the stochastic population growth rate (λ s ) of each population for current (1980–2006) and future periods (2080s). Climate drivers of survival for the populations were similar for larvae (i.e., decreases in precipitation lead to pond drying and mortality), but diverged for terrestrial stages where decreases in winter length and summer precipitation had opposite effects. By the 2080s, we predict one population will be in sharp decline (λ s = 0.90), while the other population will remain nearly stable (λ s = 0.99) in the absence of other stressors, such as mortality due to disease. Our case study demonstrates a result counter to many climate envelope predictions in that stage-specific responses to local climate and hydrology result in a higher extinction risk for the more northern population.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2018

Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian

Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life‐history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow‐dominated to rain‐dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post‐metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species’ life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog ( Rana cascadae ) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage‐based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed‐specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λ s ) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84–1.13), but predict that λ s will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2014

Amphibians in the climate vise: loss and restoration of resilience of montane wetland ecosystems in the western US

Wetlands in the remote mountains of the western US have undergone two massive ecological “experiments” spanning the 20th century. Beginning in the late 1800s and expanding after World War II, fish and wildlife managers intentionally introduced millions of predatory trout (primarily Oncorhynchus spp) into fishless mountain ponds and lakes across the western states. These new top predators, which now occupy 95% of large mountain lakes, have limited the habitat distributions of native frogs, salamanders, and wetland invertebrates to smaller, more ephemeral ponds where trout do not survive. Now a second “experiment” – anthropogenic climate change – threatens to eliminate many of these ephemeral habitats and shorten wetland hydroperiods. Caught between climate-induced habitat loss and predation from introduced fish, native mountain lake fauna of the western US – especially amphibians – are at risk of extirpation. Targeted fish removals, guided by models of how wetlands will change under future climate scenarios, provide innovative strategies for restoring resilience of wetland ecosystems to climate change.

Western United States↗

USGS2004

Optical characteristics of natural waters protect amphibians from UV-B in the U.S. Pacific Northwest: Reply

Few ecologists would dispute that exposure to high levels of ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B) is detrimental to organisms. It is well established that UV-B has been a critical factor shaping the physiology ( Blum et al. 1949 , Hansson 2000 ), behavior ( Pennington and Emlet 1986 , van de Mortel and Buttemer 1998 ), and distribution ( Williamson et al. 2001 , Leavitt et al. 2003 ) of many aquatic species. Recently, increasing UV-B caused by stratospheric ozone depletion has stimulated much research on the UV-B sensitivity of a wide variety of taxa, and has been found to cause direct mortality ( Calkins and Thordardottir 1980 , reviewed by Siebeck et al. 1994 ), elevate developmental abnormalities ( Ankley et al. 2002 ), increase susceptibility to disease ( Little and Fabacher 1994 , Kiesecker and Blaustein 1995 ), and change the strength of species interactions ( Sommaruga 2003 ). Increasing levels of UV-B have also been invoked as an explanation for the decline of some amphibian species, and support for this hypothesis has been extrapolated from many laboratory experiments and field studies at individual sites that indicate ambient or enhanced levels of UV-B can increase mortality of embryos and larvae (but see Licht 2003 ). This has been an especially attractive hypothesis for amphibian populations in alpine environments where direct anthropogenic impacts such as habitat modification are limited and ambient levels of UV-B are high ( Blaustein and Wake 1990 , Blaustein et al. 1994 , Alford and Richards 1999 ). However, for all the attention UV-B has received in the context of declining amphibian populations, there is little evidence linking the physiological sensitivity of individuals to actual population dynamics ( Licht 2003 ).

California, Oregon, Washington↗