Geology topics

W.R. Gould

Publications and source records attributed to W.R. Gould.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2007

Concerns regarding a call for pluralism of information theory and hypothesis testing

1. Stephens et al. (2005) argue for 'pluralism' in statistical analysis, combining null hypothesis testing and information-theoretic (I-T) methods. We show that I-T methods are more informative even in single variable problems and we provide an ecological example. 2. I-T methods allow inferences to be made from multiple models simultaneously. We believe multimodel inference is the future of data analysis, which cannot be achieved with null hypothesis-testing approaches. 3. We argue for a stronger emphasis on critical thinking in science in general and less reliance on exploratory data analysis and data dredging. Deriving alternative hypotheses is central to science; deriving a single interesting science hypothesis and then comparing it to a default null hypothesis (e.g. 'no difference') is not an efficient strategy for gaining knowledge. We think this single-hypothesis strategy has been relied upon too often in the past. 4. We clarify misconceptions presented by Stephens et al. (2005) . 5. We think inference should be made about models, directly linked to scientific hypotheses, and their parameters conditioned on data, Prob(Hj| data). I-T methods provide a basis for this inference. Null hypothesis testing merely provides a probability statement about the data conditioned on a null model, Prob(data |H0). 6. Synthesis and applications . I-T methods provide a more informative approach to inference. I-T methods provide a direct measure of evidence for or against hypotheses and a means to consider simultaneously multiple hypotheses as a basis for rigorous inference. Progress in our science can be accelerated if modern methods can be used intelligently; this includes various I-T and Bayesian methods.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2005

Effects of depleted uranium on survival, growth, and metamorphosis in the african clawed frog (Xenopus laevis)

Embryos (stage 8-47, Nieuwkoop and Faber) of the African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis) were subjected to water-borne depleted uranium (DU) concentrations that ranged from 4.8 to 77.7 mg/Lusing an acute 96-h frog embryo teratogenesis assay-Xenopus (FETAX). In a chronic 64-d assay, X. laevis (from embryo through metamorphosis; stages 8-66) were subjected to concentrations of DU that ranged from 6.2 to 54.3 mg/L Our results indicate DU is a non teratogenic metal. No effects on mortality, malformations, or growth were observed in the 96-h FETAX with concentrations of DU that ranged from 4.8 to 77.7 mg/L From stage 8 to stage 47, X. laevis tadpoles do not actively feed and the gills are not well developed. Thus, uptake of DU was reduced despite exposure to elevated concentrations. The 64-d assay resulted in no concentration response for either mortality or malformations; however, a delay in metamorphosis was observed in tadpoles subjected to elevated DU concentrations (from 13.1 to 54.3 mg/L) compared to tadpoles in both the well-water control and reference. The delay in metamorphosis was likely due to increasing body burden of DU that ranged from 0.98 to 2.82 mg/kg. Copyright?? Taylor & Francis Inc.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2003

Habitat features and predictive habitat modeling for the Colorado chipmunk in southern New Mexico

Two subspecies of Colorado chipmunk (state threatened and federal species of concern) occur in southern New Mexico: Tamias quadrivittatus australis in the Organ Mountains and T. q. oscuraensis in the Oscura Mountains. We developed a GIS model of potentially suitable habitat based on vegetation and elevation features, evaluated site classifications of the GIS model, and determined vegetation and terrain features associated with chipmunk occurrence. We compared GIS model classifications with actual vegetation and elevation features measured at 37 sites. At 60 sites we measured 18 habitat variables regarding slope, aspect, tree species, shrub species, and ground cover. We used logistic regression to analyze habitat variables associated with chipmunk presence/absence. All (100%) 37 sample sites (28 predicted suitable, 9 predicted unsuitable) were classified correctly by the GIS model regarding elevation and vegetation. For 28 sites predicted suitable by the GIS model, 18 sites (64%) appeared visually suitable based on habitat variables selected from logistic regression analyses, of which 10 sites (36%) were specifically predicted as suitable habitat via logistic regression. We detected chipmunks at 70% of sites deemed suitable via the logistic regression models. Shrub cover, tree density, plant proximity, presence of logs, and presence of rock outcrop were retained in the logistic model for the Oscura Mountains; litter, shrub cover, and grass cover were retained in the logistic model for the Organ Mountains. Evaluation of predictive models illustrates the need for multi-stage analyses to best judge performance. Microhabitat analyses indicate prospective needs for different management strategies between the subspecies. Sensitivities of each population of the Colorado chipmunk to natural and prescribed fire suggest that partial burnings of areas inhabited by Colorado chipmunks in southern New Mexico may be beneficial. These partial burnings may later help avoid a fire that could substantially reduce habitat of chipmunks over a mountain range.

Western North American Naturalist↗

USGS2002

Effects of depleted uranium on the health and survival of Ceriodaphnia dubia and Hyalella azteca

Depleted uranium (DU) has been used as a substitute for the fissionable enriched uranium component of atomic weapons tested at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) (Los Alamos, NM, USA) since the early 1950s, resulting in considerable concentrations of DU in the soils within the test sites. Although the movement of DU into major aquatic systems has been shown to be minimal, there are many small-order ephemeral streams and areas of standing water in canyons throughout LANL that may be affected by inputs of DU via runoff, erosion, and leaching. Ninety-six-hour acute and 7-d chronic toxicity assays were conducted to measure the toxicity of DU on survival and reproduction of Ceriodaphnia dubia. A 14-d water-only assay was conducted to measure survival and growth of Hyalella azteca. The estimated median lethal concentration (LC50) to produce 50% mortality of the test population for the 96-h Ceriodaphnia dubia assay was 10.50 mg/L. Reproductive effects occurred at a lowest-observable-effect concentration ≥ 3.91 mg/L with a no-observable-effect concentration of 1.97 mg/L. The estimated 14-d LC50 for the Hyalella azteca assay was 1.52 mg/L No significant relationship was detected between growth and DU concentrations. Concentrations at which toxicity effects were observed in this study for both invertebrates exceeded concentrations of total uranium observed in runoff from LANL lands. Thus, it is likely that current runoff levels of uranium do not pose a threat to these types of aquatic invertebrates.

New Mexico↗

USGS2002

An appeal to undergraduate wildlife programs: send scientists to learn statistics

Undergraduate wildlife students taking introductory statistics too often are poorly prepared and insufficiently motivated to learn statistics. We have also encountered too many wildlife professionals, even with graduate degrees, who exhibit an aversion to thinking statistically, either relying too heavily on statisticians or avoiding statistics altogether. We believe part of the reason for these problems is that wildlife majors are insufficiently grounded in the scientific method and analytical thinking before they take statistics. We suggest that a partial solution is to assure wildlife majors are trained in the scientific method at the very beginning of their academic careers.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS1996

Detecting trends in raptor counts: power and type I error rates of various statistical tests

We conducted simulations that estimated power and type I error rates of statistical tests for detecting trends in raptor population count data collected from a single monitoring site. Results of the simulations were used to help analyze count data of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) from 7 national forests in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin during 1980-1989. Seven statistical tests were evaluated, including simple linear regression on the log scale and linear regression with a permutation test. Using 1,000 replications each, we simulated n = 10 and n = 50 years of count data and trends ranging from -5 to 5% change/year. We evaluated the tests at 3 critical levels (alpha = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10) for both upper- and lower-tailed tests. Exponential count data were simulated by adding sampling error with a coefficient of variation of 40% from either a log-normal or autocorrelated log-normal distribution. Not surprisingly, tests performed with 50 years of data were much more powerful than tests with 10 years of data. Positive autocorrelation inflated alpha-levels upward from their nominal levels, making the tests less conservative and more likely to reject the null hypothesis of no trend. Of the tests studied, Cox and Stuart's test and Pollard's test clearly had lower power than the others. Surprisingly, the linear regression t-test, Collins' linear regression permutation test, and the nonparametric Lehmann's and Mann's tests all had similar power in our simulations. Analyses of the count data suggested that bald eagles had increasing trends on at least 2 of the 7 national forests during 1980-1989.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗