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W.M. Getz

Publications and source records attributed to W.M. Getz.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2011

Rift Valley fever virus infection in African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) herds in rural South Africa: Evidence of interepidemic transmission

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an emerging biodefense pathogen that poses significant threats to human and livestock health. To date, the interepidemic reservoirs of RVFV are not well defined. In a longitudinal survey of infectious diseases among African buffalo during 2000-2006, 550 buffalo were tested for antibodies against RVFV in 820 capture events in 302 georeferenced locations in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Overall, 115 buffalo (21%) were seropositive. Seroprevalence of RVFV was highest (32%) in the first study year, and decreased progressively in subsequent years, but had no detectable impact on survival. Nine (7%) of 126 resampled, initially seronegative animals seroconverted during periods outside any reported regional RVFV outbreaks. Seroconversions for RVFV were detected in significant temporal clusters during 2001-2003 and in 2004. These findings highlight the potential importance of wildlife as reservoirs for RVFV and interepidemic RVFV transmission in perpetuating regional RVFV transmission risk. Copyright ?? 2011 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene↗
USGS2009

Disease, predation and demography: Assessing the impacts of bovine tuberculosis on African buffalo by monitoring at individual and population levels

Summary Understanding the effects of disease is critical to determining appropriate management responses, but estimating those effects in wildlife species is challenging. We used bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in the African buffalo Syncerus caffer population of Kruger National Park, South Africa, as a case study to highlight the issues associated with estimating chronic disease effects in a long‐lived host. We used known and radiocollared buffalo, aerial census data, and a natural gradient in pathogen prevalence to investigate if: (i) at the individual level, BTB infection reduces reproduction; (ii) BTB infection increases vulnerability to predation; and (iii) at the population level, increased BTB prevalence causes reduced population growth. There was only a marginal reduction in calving success associated with BTB infection, as indexed by the probability of sighting a known adult female with or without a calf ( P = 0·065). Since 1991, BTB prevalence increased from 27 to 45% in the southern region and from 4 to 28% in the central region of Kruger National Park. The prevalence in the northern regions was only 1·5% in 1998. Buffalo population growth rates, however, were neither statistically different among regions nor declining over time. Lions Panthera leo did not appear to preferentially kill test‐positive buffalo. The best (Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size) AIC c model with BTB as a covariate [exp(β) = 0·49; 95% CI = (0·24–1·02)] suggested that the mortality hazard for positive individuals was no greater than for test‐negative individuals. Synthesis and applications . Test accuracy, time‐varying disease status, and movement among populations are some of the issues that make the detection of chronic disease impacts challenging. For these reasons, the demographic impacts of bovine tuberculosis in the Kruger National Park remain undetectable despite 6 years of study on known individuals and 40 years of population counts. However, the rainfall and forage conditions during this study were relatively good and the impacts of many chronic diseases may be a non‐linear function of environmental conditions such that they are only detectable in stressful periods.

Kruger National Park↗
USGS2009

Methods for assessing movement path recursion with application to African buffalo in South Africa

Recent developments of automated methods for monitoring animal movement, e.g., global positioning systems (GPS) technology, yield high-resolution spatiotemporal data. To gain insights into the processes creating movement patterns, we present two new techniques for extracting information from these data on repeated visits to a particular site or patch ("recursions"). Identification of such patches and quantification of recursion pathways, when combined with patch-related ecological data, should contribute to our understanding of the habitat requirements of large herbivores, of factors governing their space-use patterns, and their interactions with the ecosystem. We begin by presenting output from a simple spatial model that simulates movements of large-herbivore groups based on minimal parameters: resource availability and rates of resource recovery after a local depletion. We then present the details of our new techniques of analyses (recursion analysis and circle analysis) and apply them to data generated by our model, as well as two sets of empirical data on movements of African buffalo (Syncerus coffer): the first collected in Klaserie Private Nature Reserve and the second in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Our recursion analyses of model outputs provide us with a basis for inferring aspects of the processes governing the production of buffalo recursion patterns, particularly the potential influence of resource recovery rate. Although the focus of our simulations was a comparison of movement patterns produced by different resource recovery rates, we conclude our paper with a comprehensive discussion of how recursion analyses can be used when appropriate ecological data are available to elucidate various factors influencing movement. Inter alia, these include the various limiting and preferred resources, parasites, and topographical and landscape factors. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗
USGS2005

Disentangling association patterns in fission-fusion societies using African buffalo as an example

A description of the social network of a population aids us in understanding dispersal, the spread of disease, and genetic structure in that population. Many animal populations can be classified as fission–fusion societies, whereby groups form and separate over time. Examples discussed in the literature include ungulates, primates and cetaceans (Lott and Minta, 1983, Whitehead et al., 1991, Henzi et al., 1997, Christal et al., 1998 and Chilvers and Corkeron, 2002). In this study, we use a heuristic simulation model to illustrate potential problems in applying traditional techniques of association analysis to fission–fusion societies and propose a new index of association: the fission decision index (FDI). We compare the conclusions resulting from traditional methods with those of the FDI using data from African buffalo, Syncerus caffer , in the Kruger National Park. The traditional approach suggested that the buffalo population was spatially and temporally structured into four different ‘herds’ with adult males only peripherally associated with mixed herds. Our FDI method indicated that association decisions of adult males appeared random, but those of other sex and age categories were nonrandom, particularly when we included the fission events associated with adult males. Furthermore, the amount of time that individuals spent together was only weakly correlated with their propensity to remain together during fission events. We conclude with a discussion of the applicability of the FDI to other studies.

Kruger National Park↗
USGS2005

Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease?

Host population thresholds for invasion or persistence of infectious disease are core concepts of disease ecology, and underlie on-going and controversial disease control policies based on culling and vaccination. Empirical evidence for these thresholds in wildlife populations has been sparse, however, though recent studies have narrowed this gap. Here we review the theoretical bases for population thresholds for disease, revealing why they are difficult to measure and sometimes are not even expected, and identifying important facets of wildlife ecology left out of current theories. We discuss strengths and weaknesses of selected empirical studies that have reported disease thresholds for wildlife, identify recurring obstacles, and discuss implications of our imperfect understanding of wildlife thresholds for disease control policy.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2005

Duelling timescales of host mixing and disease spread determine invasion of disease in structured populations

The epidemic potential of a disease is traditionally assessed using the basic reproductive number, R 0 . However, in populations with social or spatial structure a chronic disease is more likely to invade than an acute disease with the same R 0 , because it persists longer within each group and allows for more host movement between groups. Acute diseases ‘perceive’ a more structured host population, and it is more important to consider host population structure in analyses of these diseases. The probability of a pandemic does not arise independently from characteristics of either the host or disease, but rather from the interaction of host movement and disease recovery timescales. The R * statistic, a group-level equivalent of R 0 , is a better indicator of disease invasion in structured populations than the individual-level R 0 .

Ecology Letters↗