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W. Z. Savage

Publications and source records attributed to W. Z. Savage.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2006

Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.

Landslides↗
USGS2005

Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA

Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common, also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97 stimulated renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit local needs and available data.

Landslides↗
USGS2004

An exact solution for effects of topography on free Rayleigh waves

An exact solution for the effects of topography on Rayleigh wave amplification is presented. The solution is obtained by incorporating conformal mapping into complex-variable stress functions developed for free Rayleigh wave propagation in an elastic half-space with a flat upper surface. Results are presented for free Rayleigh wave propagation across isolated symmetric ridges and valleys. It is found for wavelengths that are comparable to ridge widths that horizontal Rayleigh wave amplitudes are amplified at ridge crests and that vertical amplitudes are strongly reduced near ridge crests relative to horizontal and vertical amplitudes of free Rayleigh waves in the flat case. Horizontal amplitudes are strongly deamplified at valley bottoms relative to those for the flat case for Rayleigh wavelengths comparable to valley widths. Wave amplitudes in the symmetric ridges and valleys asymptotically approach those for the flat case with increased wavelengths, increased ridge and valley widths, and with horizontal distance from and depth below the isolated ridges and valleys. Also, prograde particle motion is predicted near crests of narrow ridges and near the bottoms of narrow valleys. Finally, application of the theory at two sites known for topographic wave amplification gives a predicted surface wave amplification ratio of 3.80 at the ridge center for a frequency of 1.0 Hz at Robinwood Ridge in northern California and a predicted surface wave amplification ratio of 1.67 at the ridge center for the same frequency at the Cedar Hill Nursery site at Tarzana in southern California.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2003

Effects of crustal stresses on fluid transport in fractured rock: Case studies from northeastern and southwestern USA

The link between stress and hydrologic properties was examined at two sites that are distinguished by different rock types and different stress states. This investigation is based upon the analysis and interpretation of geophysical logs obtained in water wells at the two locations. At the northeast site (Newark Basin), the hydrologic characteristics of sedimentary rocks are dependent upon the relationship to the current regional stress field of two primary types of orthogonal features that serve as preferential pathways for fluid flow. Subhorizontal bedding-plane partings are highly transmissive near the surface and delineate transversely isotropic fluid flow at shallow depths. With increasing depth, the subhorizontal planes become less dominant and steeply dipping fractures become more influential hydrologically. These high-angle features define anisotropic flow pathways that are preferentially oriented along strike. At the southwest site (west Texas), extrusive rocks are subjected to topographically modified tectonic and gravitational stresses that vary spatially within a valley setting. The attendant changes in stress invariants cause fracture connectivity within the rock mass to systematically increase with depth along the valley flanks, but to remain relatively low in the central valley. The degree of fracture connectivity predicted within this valley configuration is consistent with variations in transmissivity determined at several well locations. In each of these cases, the idealized understanding of the hydrologic system is enhanced by considering the effects of regional and local stresses that act upon the fractured-rock aquifer.

Hydrogeology Journal↗
USGS2003

Seasonal movement of the Slumgullion landslide determined from global positioning system surveys and field instrumentation, July 1998-March 2002

Measurements of landslide movement made by global positioning system surveys and extensometers over a 3.5-year period show that the Slumgullion landslide in the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado moved throughout the monitoring period, but that daily velocities varied on a seasonal basis. Landslide velocities peaked in the early spring and summer in response to snowmelt and summer thunderstorms, respectively. Velocities were slowest in mid-winter when air and soil temperatures were coldest and precipitation was generally low and/or in the form of snow with a low water content. We hypothesize that the seasonal variability in velocities is due to ground-water levels and corresponding pore pressures that decrease when surface water is unavailable or cannot infiltrate frozen landslide material, and increase when surface water from melting snow or rainfall infiltrates unfrozen landslide material. We also suggest that patches of bouldery debris and fractures (created by continuous movement of the landslide) are conduits through which surface water can infiltrate, regardless of the frozen or unfrozen state of the landslide matrix material. Therefore, the availability of surface water is more important than landslide temperature in controlling the rate of landslide movement. This hypothesis is supported by field instrumentation data that show (1) landslide velocities coinciding with precipitation amounts regardless of the depth of freezing of landslide material, (2) spring and annual landslide velocities that were greatest when the depth of freezing was also the greatest, and (3) a rapid (several weeks or less) velocity and pore pressure response to rainfall. The persistent, but seasonally variable movement of the landslide, fits the bathtub model for landslide movement described by Baum and Reid [Baum, R.L., Reid, M.E., 2000. Ground water isolation by low-permeability clays in landslide shear zones. In: Bromhead, E.N., Dixon, N., Ibsen, M.-L. (Eds.), Landslides in Research, Theory and Practice. Proc. 8th Int. Symp. on Landslides, Cardiff, Wales, vol. 1, 139-144]. In their model, the landslide is isolated both mechanically and hydrologically from adjacent materials by low permeability clays. These clays cause the landslide to retain water. Our data support this model by suggesting that pore pressures at the basal landslide surface are always adequate to maintain landslide movement and that any infiltration of water at the surface of the landslide is adequate to rapidly increase landslide velocity. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Engineering Geology↗
USGS2003

A model for spatially and temporally distributed shallow landslide initiation by rainfall infiltration

We describe a model for regional initiation of shallow landslides based on an approximate analytic solution to Richards equation combined with an infinite-slope calculation. The model applied over digital topography computes pressure heads and factors of safety as functions of depth for geographic information system (GIS) grid cells at any time during and after rainfall events. An example is presented that simulates the progressive development of shallow landslides on steep slopes during a rainfall event. This example shows how this modeling provides insights into transient rainfall-caused processes that trigger shallow slope instability and consequent regionally distributed debris-flow events. Specifically, we infer that the spatial pattern of instability is primarily controlled by topography, while intensity and duration of rainfall, and the subsequent pore-pressure responses control the temporal pattern of instability. ?? 2003 Millpress.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2002

Topographic stress perturbations in southern Davis Mountains, west Texas 1. Polarity reversal of principal stresses

We have applied a previously developed analytical stress model to interpret subsurface stress conditions inferred from acoustic televiewer logs obtained in two municipal water wells located in a valley in the southern Davis Mountains near Alpine, Texas. The appearance of stress-induced breakouts with orientations that shift by 90° at two different depths in one of the wells is explained by results from exact solutions for the effects of valleys on gravity and tectonically induced subsurface stresses. The theoretical results demonstrate that above a reference depth termed the hinge point, a location that is dependent on Poisson's ratio, valley shape, and magnitude of the maximum horizontal tectonic stress normal to the long axis of the valley, horizontal stresses parallel to the valley axis are greater than those normal to it. At depths below this hinge point the situation reverses and horizontal stresses normal to the valley axis are greater than those parallel to it. Application of the theoretical model at Alpine is accommodated by the fact that nearby earthquake focal mechanisms establish an extensional stress regime with the regional maximum horizontal principal stress aligned perpendicular to the valley axis. We conclude that the localized stress field associated with a valley setting can be highly variable and that breakouts need to be examined in this context when estimating the orientations and magnitudes of regional principal stresses.

Texas↗
USGS2002

Topographic stress perturbations in southern Davis Mountains, west Texas 2. Hydrogeologic implications

As part of a regional groundwater investigation, geophysical logs were obtained in two municipal water wells located near the west Texas city of Alpine. These boreholes are 252 and 285 m deep and penetrate extrusive rocks of Tertiary age. The deeper well was drilled in the central valley and the other along the northern flank of an east-west trending valley-ridge setting. Analysis and interpretation of the logs reveal that the two wells are subjected to significantly different stress environments because of topographic effects and exhibit significantly different hydrogeologic properties. Water production is associated with two specific types of features common to both wells: (1) the upper and lower contacts of a dense trachyte unit located in the shallow part of the wells and (2) deeper zones of highly fractured rocks within the interior of a basalt formation. The transmissivity of the trachyte boundaries is twice as large in the central valley well as it is in the ridge flank well, whereas the transmissivity of the deeper basalts is an order of magnitude greater in the flank well than it is in the central well. This discrepancy is examined from the perspective of rock failure, fracture opening, and flow enhancement by computing values for a Drucker-Prager stability factor that is based on the magnitudes of the normal and deviatoric stress invariants as a function of depth. Thus the field measurements and subsequent stress analysis offer evidence of a coupled tectonic-hydrologic interaction at this site.

Texas↗
USGS2001

An analytical solution for transient flow of Bingham viscoplastic materials in rock fractures

We present below an analytical solution to model the one-dimensional transient flow of a Bingham viscoplastic material in a fracture with parallel walls (smooth or rough) that is subjected to an applied pressure gradient. The solution models the acceleration and the deceleration of the material as the pressure gradient changes with time. Two cases are considered: A pressure gradient applied over a finite time interval and an applied pressure gradient that is constant over time. The solution is expressed in dimensionless form and can therefore be used for a wide range of Bingham viscoplastic materials. The solution is also capable of capturing the transition that takes place in a fracture between viscoplastic flow and rigid plug flow. Also, it shows the development of a rigid central layer in fractures, the extent of which depends on the fluid properties (viscosity and yield stress), the magnitude of the pressure gradient, and the fracture aperture and surface roughness. Finally, it is shown that when a pressure gradient is applied and kept constant, the solution for the fracture flow rate converges over time to a steady-state solution that can be defined as a modified cubic law. In this case, the fracture transmissivity is found to be a non-linear function of the head gradient. This solution provides a tool for a better understanding of the flow of Bingham materials in rock fractures, interfaces, and cracks. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining↗
USGS2000

Measurement of ridge-spreading movements (Sackungen) at Bald Eagle Mountain, Lake County, Colorado, II: Continuation of the 1975-1989 measurements using a Global Positioning System in 1997 and 1999

Measurements of ridge-spreading movements at Bald Eagle Mountain in north-central Colorado were reported in USGS Open-File Report 90-543 for the years 1975-1989. Measurements were renewed in 1997 and 1999 using the Global Positioning System (GPS). Movements are generally away from a ridge-top graben and appear to be concentrated along 3 or 4 trenches with uphill facing scarps that are parallel with slope contours. A point just below the lowest trench has moved the most? a total of 8.3 cm horizontally and slightly downward from 1977 to 1999 relative to an assumed stable point on the periphery of the graben. Movements from 1997 to 1999 are less than 1 cm or within the error of measurement.

Colorado↗
USGS1999

Air blasts generated by rockfall impacts: Analysis of the 1996 Happy Isles event in Yosemite National Park

The July 10, 1996, Happy Isles rockfall in Yosemite National Park, California, released 23,000 to 38,000 m 3 of granite in four separate events. The impacts of the first two events which involved a 550-m free fall, generated seismic waves and atmospheric pressure waves (air blasts). We focus on the dynamic behavior of the second air blast that downed over 1000 trees, destroyed a bridge, demolished a snack bar, and caused one fatality and several injuries. Calculated velocities for the air blast from a two-phase, finite difference model are compared to velocities estimated from tree damage. From tornadic studies of tree damage, the air blast is estimated to have traveled <108–120 m/s within 50 m from the impact and decreased to <10–20 m/s within 500 m from the impact. The numerical model simulates the two-dimensional propagation of an air blast through a dusty atmosphere with initial conditions defined by the impact velocity and pressure. The impact velocity (105–107 m/s) is estimated from the Colorado Rockfall Simulation Program that simulates rockfall trajectories. The impact pressure (0.5 MPa) is constrained by the kinetic energy of the impact (10 10 –10 12 J) estimated from the seismic energy generated by the impact. Results from the air blast simulations indicate that the second Happy Isles air blast (weak shock wave) traveled with an initial velocity above the local sound speed. The size and location of the first impact are thought to have injected <50 wt% dust into the atmosphere. This amount of dust lowered the local atmospheric sound speed to ∼220 m/s. The discrepancy between calculated velocity data and field estimated velocity data (∼220 m/s versus ∼110 m/s) is attributed to energy dissipated by the downing of trees and additional entrainment of debris into the atmosphere not included in the calculations.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Fire-related hyperconcentrated and debris flows on Storm King Mountain, Glenwood Springs, Colorado, USA

The South Canyon Fire of July 1994 burned 800 ha of vegetation on Storm King Mountain near Glenwood Springs, Colorado, USA. On the night of 1 September 1994, in response to torrential rains, debris flows inundated seven areas along a 5-km length of interstate Highway 70. Mapping from aerial photographs, along with field observations and measurements, shows that the September rainstorm eroded unconsolidated, burned surficial soil from the hillsides, flushed dry-ravel deposits from the tributary channels, and transported loose, large material from the main channels. The hyperconcentrated flows and debris flows inundated 14 ha of Interstate Highway 70 with 70000 m3 of material. Although the burned area was seeded in November 1994, the potential for continuing debris-flow activity remains. Incision and entrainment of channel alluvium, as well as erosion of loose material from the hillslopes could result in future debris- and hyperconcentrated-flow activity.The South Canyon Fire of July 1994 burned 800 ha of vegetation on Storm King Mountain near Glenwood Springs, Colorado, USA. On the night of 1 September 1994, in response to torrential rains, debris flows inundated seven areas along a 5-km length of Interstate Highway 70. Mapping from aerial photographs, along with field observations and measurements, shows that the September rainstorm eroded unconsolidated, burned surficial soil from the hillsides, flushed dry-ravel deposits from the tributary channels, and transported loose, large material from the main channels. The hyperconcentrated flows and debris flows inundated 14 ha of Interstate Highway 70 with 70000 m3 of material. Although the burned area was seeded in November 1994, the potential for continuing debris-flow activity remains. Incision and entrainment of channel alluvium, as well as erosion of loose material from the hillslopes could result in future debris- and hyperconcentrated-flow activity.

Environmental Geology↗