W. Long | USGS Science

USGS2010

Predicting potentially toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in the Chesapeake Bay

Harmful algal blooms are now recognized as a significant threat to the Chesapeake Bay as they can severely compromise the economic viability of important recreational and commercial fisheries in the largest estuary of the United States. This study describes the development of empirical models for the potentially domoic acid-producing Pseudo-nitzschia species complex present in the Bay, developed from a 22-year time series of cell abundance and concurrent measurements of hydrographic and chemical properties. Using a logistic Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach, model parameters and performance were compared over a range of Pseudo-nitzschia bloom thresholds relevant to toxin production by different species. Small-threshold blooms (???10cellsmL-1) are explained by time of year, location, and variability in surface values of phosphate, temperature, nitrate plus nitrite, and freshwater discharge. Medium- (100cellsmL-1) to large- threshold (1000cellsmL-1) blooms are further explained by salinity, silicic acid, dissolved organic carbon, and light attenuation (Secchi) depth. These predictors are similar to other models for Pseudo-nitzschia blooms on the west coast, suggesting commonalities across ecosystems. Hindcasts of bloom probabilities at a 19% bloom prediction point yield a Heidke Skill Score of -53%, a Probability of Detection ~75%, a False Alarm Ratio of ~52%, and a Probability of False Detection ~9%. The implication of possible future changes in Baywide nutrient stoichiometry on Pseudo-nitzschia blooms is discussed. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Journal of Marine Systems↗

USGS1984

Volcanic glasses, their origins and alteration processes

Natural glass can be formed by volcanic processes, lightning (fulgarites) burning coal, and by meteorite impact. By far the most common process is volcanic - basically the glass is rapidly chilled molten rock. All natural glasses are thermodynamically unstable and tend to alter chemically or to crystallize. The rate of these processes is determined by the chemical composition of the magma. The hot and fluid basaltic melts have a structure that allows for rapid crystal growth, and seldom forms glass selvages greater than a few centimeters thick, even when the melt is rapidly cooled by extrusion in the deep sea. In contrast the cooler and very viscous rhyolitic magmas can yield bodies of glass that are tens of meters thick. These highly polymerized magmas have a high silica content - often 71-77% SiO2. Their high viscosity inhibits diffusive crystal growth. Basalt glass in sea water forms an alteration zone called palagonite whose thickness increases linearly with time. The rate of diffusion of water into rhyolitic glass, which follows the relationship - thickness = k (time) 1 2, has been determined as a function of the glass composition and temperature. Increased SiO2 increases the rate, whereas increased CaO, MgO and H2O decrease the rate. The activation energy of water diffusion varies from about 19 to 22 kcal/mol. for the glasses studied. The diffusion of alkali out of rhyolite glass occurs simultaneously with water diffusion into the glass. The rate of devitrification of rhyolitic glass is a function of the glass viscosity, which in turn is a function of water content and temperature. Although all of the aforementioned processes tend to destroy natural glasses, the slow rates of these processes, particularly for rhyolitic glass, has allowed samples of glass to persist for 60 million years. ?? 1984.

Journal of Non-Crystalline Solids↗