Geology topics

Volkan Sevilgen

Publications and source records attributed to Volkan Sevilgen.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2014

Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M=6.0 West Napa earthquake

We calculate stress changes resulting from the M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill of stress‐based aftershock forecasting methodology is inconclusive. We apply three methods: (1) generalized mapping of regional Coulomb stress change, (2) stress changes resolved on Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast faults, and (3) a mapped rate/state aftershock forecast. All calculations were completed within 24 h after the main shock and were made without benefit of known aftershocks, which will be used to evaluative the prospective forecast. All methods suggest that we should expect heightened seismicity on parts of the southern Rodgers Creek, northern Hayward, and Green Valley faults.

California↗

USGS2014

The profound reach of the 11 April 2012 M 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake: Short‐term global triggering followed by a longer‐term global shadow

The 11 April 2012 M 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake was an unusually large intraoceanic strike‐slip event. For several days, the global M ≥4.5 and M ≥6.5 seismicity rate at remote distances (i.e., thousands of kilometers from the mainshock) was elevated. The strike‐slip mainshock appears through its Love waves to have triggered a global burst of strike‐slip aftershocks over several days. But the M ≥6.5 rate subsequently dropped to zero for the succeeding 95 days, although the M ≤6.0 global rate was close to background during this period. Such an extended period without an M ≥6.5 event has happened rarely over the past century, and never after a large mainshock. Quiescent periods following previous large ( M ≥8) mainshocks over the past century are either much shorter or begin so long after a given mainshock that no physical interpretation is warranted. The 2012 mainshock is unique in terms of both the short‐lived global increase and subsequent long quiescent period. We believe that the two components are linked and interpret this pattern as the product of dynamic stressing of a global system of faults. Transient dynamic stresses can encourage short‐term triggering, but, paradoxically, it can also inhibit rupture temporarily until background tectonic loading restores the system to its premainshock stress levels.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

The 11 April 2012 east Indian Ocean earthquake triggered large aftershocks worldwide

Large earthquakes trigger very small earthquakes globally during passage of the seismic waves and during the following several hours to days 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 , but so far remote aftershocks of moment magnitude M ≥5.5 have not been identified 11 , with the lone exception of an M =6.9 quake remotely triggered by the surface waves from an M =6.6 quake 4,800 kilometres away 12 . The 2012 east Indian Ocean earthquake that had a moment magnitude of 8.6 is the largest strike-slip event ever recorded. Here we show that the rate of occurrence of remote M ≥5.5 earthquakes (>1,500 kilometres from the epicentre) increased nearly fivefold for six days after the 2012 event, and extended in magnitude to M ≥7. These global aftershocks were located along the four lobes of Love-wave radiation; all struck where the dynamic shear strain is calculated to exceed 10 -7 for at least 100 seconds during dynamic-wave passage. The other M ≥8.5 mainshocks during the past decade are thrusts; after these events, the global rate of occurrence of remote M ≥5.5 events increased by about one-third the rate following the 2012 shock and lasted for only two days, a weaker but possibly real increase. We suggest that the unprecedented delayed triggering power of the 2012 earthquake may have arisen because of its strike-slip source geometry or because the event struck at a time of an unusually low global earthquake rate, perhaps increasing the number of nucleation sites that were very close to failure.

Indian Ocean;Sumatra↗

USGS2011

Coulomb 3.3 Graphic-rich deformation and stress-change software for earthquake, tectonic, and volcano research and teaching-user guide

Coulomb is intended both for publication-directed research and for college and graduate school classroom instruction. We believe that one learns best when one can see the most and can explore alternatives quickly. So the principal feature of Coulomb is ease of input, rapid interactive modification, and intuitive visualization of the results. The program has menus and check-items, and dialogue boxes to ease operation. The internal graphics are suitable for publication, and can be easily imported into Illustrator, GMT, Google Earth, or Flash for further enhancements. Coulomb is designed to let one calculate static displacements, strains, and stresses at any depth caused by fault slip, magmatic intrusion, or dike expansion/contraction. One can calculate static displacements (on a surface or at GPS stations), strains, and stresses caused by fault slip, magmatic intrusion, or dike expansion. Problems, such as how an earthquake promotes or inhibits failure on nearby faults, or how fault slip or dike expansion will compress a nearby magma chamber, are germane to Coulomb. Geologic deformation associated with strike-slip faults, normal faults, or fault-bend folds is also a useful application. Calculations are made in an elastic halfspace with uniform isotropic elastic properties following Okada (1992)-see list of key papers in section 1.9. There is substantial evidence to support the hypothesis that faults interact by the transfer of stress, both on the time scales of earthquake sequences and aftershocks and on longer time scales associated with the interevent time of the largest shocks that occur in a given region. There is also evidence that faults and magmatic systems interact as well, and that static stress changes influence intrusions and eruptions. Processes not included in Coulomb are also important, such as dynamic stresses, pore-fluid diffusion, and viscoelastic rebound. Further, elastic stiffness differences between basins and crustal layering modify the stresses in comparison to the elastic halfspace implemented in Coulomb. Nevertheless, we believe that a simple tool that permits exploration of a key component of earthquake interaction has great value for understanding and discovery. To download the software (a MATLAB application) and tutorial files, please go to http://www.coulombstress.org

Open-File Report↗

USGS2010

USGS-WHOI-DPRI Coulomb Stress-Transfer Model for the January 12, 2010, MW=7.0 Haiti Earthquake

Using calculated stress changes to faults surrounding the January 12, 2010, rupture on the Enriquillo Fault, and the current (January 12 to 26, 2010) aftershock productivity, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), and Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (DPRI) have made rough estimates of the chance of a magnitude (Mw)=7 earthquake occurring during January 27 to February 22, 2010, in Haiti. The probability of such a quake on the Port-au-Prince section of the Enriquillo Fault is about 2 percent, and the probability for the section to the west of the January 12, 2010, rupture is about 1 percent. The stress changes on the Septentrional Fault in northern Haiti are much smaller, although positive.

Open-File Report↗